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Explanation of Determination of NBA Lottery Odds and Tie-Breakers

From the reading of recent comments on this site, it appears there remains some confusion about the process, calculations and method of tie-breaker. After checking nba.com and other sources here's what I believe is the tidiest, clear explanation (nbcsports.com), noting my emphasis of the tie-breaker determination in bold italics:

"How does the NBA draft lottery actually work?

Teams in the lottery need more than just a lucky bounce to get the top pick. They need four lucky bounces.

A series of 1,000 four-numeral lottery combinations are divided among the 14 teams that failed to qualify for the postseason, including those who were eliminated during this year’s inaugural play-in tournament.

Each team is assigned a collection of four-number combinations, with the teams owing the three worst regular-season records in the league receiving the most. The number of combinations assigned to the remaining lottery teams decreases gradually based on record, with random drawings used to determine tiebreakers for teams sharing identical records:

1. 140 combinations

2. 140 combinations

3. 140 combinations

4. 125 combinations

5. 105 combinations

6. 90 combinations

7. 75 combinations

8. 60 combinations

9. 45 combinations

10. 30 combinations

11. 20 combinations

12. 15 combinations

13. 10 combinations

14. 5 combinations

Those combinations are used to determine the first four picks in the draft during the lottery. The 14 ping pong balls in the drum are numbered 1 to 14, forming 1,001 possible combinations (the combination 11-12-13-14 is not assigned). One number is drawn after the other in 10-second intervals. The team with the combination that matches the first four drawn numbers is awarded the first pick in the draft. For example, the Minnesota Timberwolves won the 2020 draft lottery with a winning combination of 5-13-2-4.

After the combination for the first pick is drawn, the ping pong balls are placed back into the drum, and the drawing process is repeated three times to determine the next three picks. If the same team is drawn more than once, the balls are returned to the drum and another selection is made.

The remaining lottery picks (5 through 14) are then assigned in inverse order based on regular-season records, meaning the team with the worst record in the league can pick no later than fifth."

For those fans that are interested in seeing the odds laid out in percentages, by lottery place, see: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Note that in previous years the lottery tie breaker between teams with the same season records was by coin toss.

Note that the drawing of lottery balls completes after 4 'winning combinations' are picked. After that, picking order is determined via the process stated above. Therefore, in the most perverse case of circumstantial luck (from a Spurs fan standpoint), it is possible that if SA were the 3rd place lottery team, it could wind up picking 7th. That would occur if four teams, excluding any of the first 3 lottery placeholders, wind up holding the winning ball combination in each of the 4 lottery draws. Sacre bleu!

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