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It’s time for the NBA Draft Lottery: Spurs vs Ping Pong Balls

The suspense is almost over; will the Spurs move into one of the top four spots?

1991 NBA All Star Media Availability Photo by Jon Soohoo/NBAE via Getty Images

Welcome to the Draft Lottery Thread. Veterans of the Game Thread know how we do things around here, but for all you newbies we have a few rules. Our community guidelines apply and basically say be cool, no personal attacks, don’t troll and don’t swear too much.

Tonight might mark the most boring ritual in professional sports, where a bunch of guys in suits wait around in a room, where league representatives open 14 envelopes over the course of 30 minutes, with a lot of commentary about which team logo will be inside each envelope, and how it will affect each franchise. This is just the random drawing to select the order of drafting, but it’s going to be very important to the teams that end up at of near the first four picks, which is where you’ll find this year’s franchise-transforming players.

The Spurs will be represented this year by David Robinson, the player who wore #50 on the 50th year of the franchise’s existence. There are basically three things that can happen for the Spurs in tonight’s drawing:

  • The Spurs could draw one of the first four picks. We will know that this happened if the Spurs are not the 9th pick or later, so we’ll know about this fairly early in the broadcast if it happens. There is about a 20.4% chance of this occurring.
  • The Spurs could end up staying at the 9th spot, which we would know once the 6th envelope is opened, if it has a Spurs logo in it. The chances of this happening are about 51%.
  • One or more of the teams ranked below the Spurs could move up into the top 4, bumping the Spurs down a spot or two. We will know about teams moving up relatively early in the broadcast, but even if a lower-ranked team moves up, it won’t rule out the Spurs also getting into the top four, so we won’t know for sure if the Spurs have been moved down until their pick occurs. The chances of the Spurs being bumped down one spot or more (without reaching the top 4 spots) is about 29%. Even if that happens, it’s usually not a tragedy, because the difference between the 9th and 10th pick isn’t going to be as big of a deal as one slot earlier in the draft. Unless the guy you really wanted gets picked 9th ...

Lottery Prediction:

David Robinson will intimidate the ping pong balls into providing a favorable lottery result for the Spurs.

One final word:

Go Spurs GOOOOOO!!

San Antonio Spurs against The Odds
May 17, 2022 | 7:00 PM CT
Streaming: NBA League Pass
TV: ESPN

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