FanPost

Is the Spurs FO really ready to tank?



Breaking a decade long trend, the FO made a lot of in-season trades. The trade magnitude were significant too since it included rotation players and even one of the 3 best player on the team. There was even rumors that they were ready to trade Poeltl, another one of their 3 best players. No word came out about Dejounte but if the FO really wanted to tank it wouldn’t be surprising if he were made available.

However, dating back to last off-season, it is still not 100% sure to say the FO is ready to go full tanking. In fact, we can wonder if his year trade deadline is the repeat of 2021 off-season.
First let’s review quickly the FO past 18 months decisions.

2021 Off season moves

Win now moves

Tanking move

Asset acquisition

Forbes signing

Departure of Mills

Drafting Primo

McDermott signing

Departure of Gay

Derozan S&T for Young, Aminu and future picks

Collins signing

Departure of Derozan

Keeping Murray, White Poeltl

Acquiring Thad Young


The 2021 off-season was a clear win now direction for the Spurs. The goal was to move on from the Demar/Aldridge era and give the keys to the White-Murray-Poeltl trio to find out what they were capable off. The GM decided to build upon this fondations by signing Forbes, McDermott and Collins. The idea was to surround them with shooting (hence the acquisition of Landale and draft of Wiesekamp) to make their drive easier. Except Landale all are proven players that can help a team win.
The FO did a good job of flipping unrestricted FA Derozan to the Bulls for 6th man of the year candidate Young, future picks (2022 Detroit pick around 32 overall and a Bull first in the far future) and Aminu as salary filler.

This season team was basically in the same situation as last season: promising young players (Jones Johnson Vassell Primo Walker) surrounding veterans (Forbes, McDermott, White Murray Poeltl) that fit their talent. The hope was to make the playoff. However, despite the point differential of a 40W team, they were on road to a 30W season once again. So before the trade deadline, Brian Wright made a lot of moves. At first glance it appears that the Spurs were ready to prioritize winning later rather than win now. But a detailed look seems to reveal another direction.

2022 Trade deadline moves

Win now moves

Tanking moves

Asset acquisition

Rumors

Playing time for Primo

Forbes for pick

Poeltl for Pick

Playing time for Jones

Young for moving up in 22 Draft

Lonnie Walker available

Playing time for Vassell

Hernangomez for pick

White for Richardson

White for Picks and Langford

Most of the headlines were occupied by all the draft picks the Spurs acquired. Basically they turn Derozan into 2 first round pick, Forbes into 2 seconds, White into a first, a pick swap, a second draft project (Romeo Langford) and Richardson.
Richardson looks a lot like Young:

Richardson as the new Thad Young

Richardson

Thad Young

Ppg for previous team

10 points

12 points

Mpg for previous team

24 minutes

24 minutes

NBA status

6/7th man

6/7th man

Year left on their contract

1

1

Salary

12.3 millions

14.2 millions


It wouldn’t be surprising if the Spurs end up trading Richardson for pick or to move up in the draft just like they did with Thad Young even though he didn’t play much for the Spurs. This could happen next trade deadline or on draft night.

If we go back to the trade deadline moves we can complete the tab to add the win now moves:

Trade deadline moves COMPLETED

Win now moves

A bit of both

Asset acquisition

Rumors

Collins for Eubanks

Playing time for Primo

Forbes for pick

Poeltl for Pick

Murray playing 32mpg

Playing time for Jones

Young for moving up in 22 Draft

Lonnie Walker available

Poeltl playing 32mpg

Playing time for Vassell

Hernangomez for pick

White for Richardson

White for Picks and Langford


Basically last year they replace Derozan, Mills and Gay minutes by Forbes, McDermott and White. After the trade deadline, White and Forbes minutes will be played by Vassell, Jones and Primo. Record wise it is likely it won’t change a lot, as post deadline predictions reflects: 538.com still have the Spurs missing the playoff and winning 33 games. Freeing up playing time for Vassell, Primo and Jones is probably not a tanking moves since the role they have to fill right now fit their level. Playing Richardson certainly isn’t either.

When looking closer to the player that were moved that prediction makes sense:
Forbes, 28, SG, skillset replicated by Vassell, Primo, Keldon and Lonnie.
White, 27, PG/SG, skillset replicated by Vassell, Primo, Keldon, Lonnie, Tre Jones and Richardson
Walker, 23, SG, skillset replicated by Vassell, Primo, Keldon and Richardson
Young, 33, PF, out of rotation
Eubanks, 25, C, role replaced by Collins
Poeltl, 27, C, no real replacement in the roster
All the player that were eventually traded already had replacement in the roster without need to get player back. The gap between Forbes/White and Vassell/Jones/Primo is also not large enough to have the Spurs crater in the standings. Even loosing Walker, who was in the rumor, probably wouldn’t have hurt the team much. The only exception is Jakob Poeltl who is the only defensive center the Spurs have on their roster right now. Trading him would have been an unequivocal road to tanking. However, since it didn’t happen I think it is misguided to think the Spurs as currently constructed are tanking. They are a 30W basketball team, has been for the last 3 seasons but not because the FO design it that way, because they are not talented enough and that talent doesn’t fit all that well together. The direction the FO has chosen seems to be that of optionality: all directions are open, they are 2 trades away from tanking, a few developmental leap away from the eighth seed, a few developmental leaps and FA signing from 50W team and home court advantage. Normally a 30W record would have the Spurs far away from the play in, the West is just bad this year so the FO decided to roll the dice and try to make it.
As an aside, this trade is probably a vote of confidence in Vassell, Primo, Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson. PAFTO might trust KJ to make Forbes expendable. They trust Vassell could replace Derrick 3 point shooting, defense and soon play making. They Trust Jones can be the second unit PG, a role Derrick was filling. They trust Primo can replace Vasselll 3&D skills well enough off the bench for the last 25 games. I doubt Primo will play much in the G League the rest of the season.
Derrick trade also remind me of the KL trade where the Spurs throw in Danny Green, an All NBA defense and elite 3Point shooter. They probably were confident enough that Derrick would be able to replace DG production the next season.

That recent history can be a good indicators of things to come particularly in the draft and off season.
In the draft I assume SA will try to move up the draft by combining some of their 2022 picks together or packaging a pick and a player together (like Poeltl, McDermott, Richardson). They could also include Chicago future first too. I assume that once again they will go for the highest potential available like they did when choosing Primo, Samanic, Dejounte or Lonnie. My guess will be that they will pick at least two players in the first round.
With all their cap space they could also decide to make big offer to big FA that fit their timeline. The eternal question is are FA willing to go to SA ? Some of those FA will be Bradley Beal, Deandre Ayton, Zach Lavine. If they fail to sign any of those big names they will probably roll over their cap space to next season. So far they have avoided taking long term bad contracts against picks but that could change.

2023 offseason paths

Tanking path

Conitnuity

Win now moves

Trade Poeltl, Murray, McDermott for picks and bad contracts

Trade Poeltl Murray McDermott for picks and good player

Keep and play Poeltl Murray and McDermott

Take longterm gamble on injured players

Sign/Trade big FA (Ayton, Irving, …)

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