FanPost

Is Tre Jones a second round steal?

At the end of this season, I was impressed by Tre Jones performance, who was much better than an usual second round pick. Some of his achievements made him similar to a first round pick. For instance his NBA playing time in his first season:
Tre Jones: 269min
Joseph: 266min
Dejounte: 322min
Lonnie: 118min
Derrick: 139min

That's a lot of minutes considering the Spurs are stacked at guard. Of course the team is not contending like when Dejounte and Derrick and Cory joined but there were still trying to win now and make the playoff, not developing young players. There was no Bubble to experiment once the playoff were out of reach, just a bout of Covid and injuries to Derrick White that also cut short Tre's G league season.

Tre Jones reminds me of Cory Joseph: both defense first, pass first PG, good fundamentals, struggling from 3. Tre Jones is said to be a much a better athlete and a better passer. Maybe a better shooter too but Joseph was a one and done while Tre stayed two years in Duke. Both are low turnover and high assist to turnover ratio with Jones getting the edge.Similarities in G league too: 7 games each, 240 to 219 min only for Tre Jones, 17.4 and 18.1points, 5 rebounds each, but 9.7 assists to 5.4 advantage Jones. Despite playing less minutes Tre got 36FT vs 25 for Joseph.

G league stats per 36

PPG

Asst

TO

Asst/TO

3pt%

FT%

Stock

Rebound

FG%

Murray

17.6

6.4

5.2

1.3

15.6

70.1

2.1

8

44.2

LWIV

21.7

2.3

2.0

1.2

35.8

81.1

2.1

3.8

43.9

White

27.2

4.4

3.6

1.4

34.4

87.3

4.0

6.4

45.3

Forbes

23.4

2.7

2.5

1.1

45.9

86.9

1.4

3.5

50.2

Anderson

19.1

4.3

3.0

1.5

35.4

78.9

3.1

7

44.7

Joseph

12.3

5.1

1.3

2.6

23.1

76.0

1.6

5.7

45.9

Keldon

24.0

2.9

3.0

0.9

24.7

75.7

1.7

6.7

53.1

Samanic

19.3

2.3

4.0

0.6

30.7

77.1

1.8

9.9

43

Tre Jones

20.9

11.2

3.5

3.2

8.3

83.3

1.6

6.1

44.6


Above is a tab of some relevant stats of the last 6 Spurs guard draftee (plus Samanic and Forbes) who played in the G League. I voluntarily put Forbes and Jones in that group even though none of them were first rounder. However as Forbes proved, G league performance can sometimes be one indicator of future NBA success (among many other of course). Their stats are mostly on par with first round selection, which is a good sign. The sample size is small (only 219min played) but Tre Jones was consistent game to game and is not really smaller than the Bubble last year after which the Spurs decided to give new contract to Poeltl, Eubanks and White.
Another interesting comp could be TJ McConnell with more shooting and less steals. When he was playing with other stars in Duke he focused on making play for other and defend hard. That could be his role in the NBA off the bench in his first years.
Complete G League stats or Jones and Joseph:

https://stats.gleague.nba.com/player/1630200/

https://stats.gleague.nba.com/player/202709

Tre Jones G League stats are even more impressive when you know he wasn't the main option on offense in the G League.
Tre Jones might have been the second best player on the team behind Samanic but you could make the argument Jones was the best player: setting the table for other while Samanic was ‘forced fed' opportunities: 13.1 FGA for Tre (4th on the team), team high 18.5 for Samanic who to his credit got the ball to score at the end of game. Woodward was also very good but got his point in part thanks to his defense and hustle while Samanic was designed to be feature on offense. The fact that while being tasked to be a distributor he ended up being second leading scorer behind Samanic is impressive. Even more impressive he did it with much less shots, without taking 3 (only 1/12 in the 7 games he played)) and by creating his own offense (75% of his 2pt FGM unassisted) and having Woodward off the bench having a lot of opportunities. He performed more like a first round pick than a second. He was the second most use player after Samanic. He also led the team (and G league had he played 2 more games) in assist and in FTA/game. With him and Samanic the team went 6-1, 4-5 without any of them.

He also got a guarantee contract as a second rounder. Metu also did but he was drafted on his athletic tools and positional scarcity rather than his basketball skills.

Projection going forward.

Jones already has NBA athleticism, NBA passing and NBA one on one defense at PG. He has below average NBA point guard height. Those should likely make him a serviceable back up point guard for a few years, someone who like Cory Joseph played 15-20mpg and make very few mistakes, a care taker while starters rest. However if he wants to be more than that he will have to improve his offensive output. In college he had a 42% FG% and 76.7 FT%. That kind of inefficient scoring will prevent him from getting more minutes. He vastly improved his 3pt shooting in college from 26.2% to 36.1% on 103 and 108 attempts respectively. However most of them were wide open catch and shoot, few pul up, most rim attempts on fastbreak oportunities:
Tre Jones Duke Second year highlights

But his college FT shooting was 75.8 and 77.1%, when NBA averages is 78%. The most worrying part was his total refusal to shoot 3 in the G League: he passed up a lot of open looks and opponents went under every screen. The silver lining is that lots of player have improved their shooting in the NBA and that often starts with FT: he went 85% (47/55) at the line this year (NBA and G league combined).
I was surprised by his production in the G League especially with other players higher in the pecking order. In College he was able to set the tables for stars (Barret, Reddish Zion) but in his second year he was able to shoulder a heavier scoring burden and develop a passable 3 point shot. However most of his 3 were wide open since the opponents didn't guard him there. But it was a big improvement from his freshman year. I am just worried his refusal to shoot in the G League. Maybe he was just confident he could score at the basket or create for his teammates.
The problem for him is most of the other Spurs guards don't shoot much 3. The front court doesn't shoot 3 either. That could make it more difficult to get on the floor especially if everyone is healthy or if the Spurs draft a guard in July. However that gives the Spurs a competent back up PG with a different skillset : pass first floor general with good to great point of attack defender.

His NBA minutes in his first season, his guaranted contract, his college career and his G-League success points to Tre Jones turning into a possible second round steal.

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