FanPost

Should the Spurs extend Lonnie this summer? Part 2: Offense.

After covering Lonnie's defense in regard to his peer on the roster, I will know get into some of his offense.

Shooting

Restricted area FGA

Restricted area FG%

Pull up 3FGA

Pull up 3FG%

Mills

60

60 %

97

30,7%

Dejounte

127

63 %

23

34,8%

Lonnie

44

50 %

33

24,5%

Keldon

164

60,4%

14

35,7%

Derrick

24

66,7%

12

33,3%

Devin

22

54,5%

4

50 %

Lonnie still struggle to get to the rim and to finish there. However his 3point shooting is encouraging: he is taking more pull up, more off movement shot than last year. Pull up is very important because it has become a must have weapon for almost any guard in the NBA know. Lonnie is shooting 24,5% on them so far but the Spurs need him to practice them.
At the rim he is the worst of the guard and with a very low volume. 50% is also way below league average.

Drives

Drives

Drives/game

Drive PPG

Ast

TO

Keldon

7,6

6,3

0,4

0,8

Lonnie

6,3

2,5

0,8

0,5

Dejounte

11,2

4,5

1,2

0,5

Derrick

7,9

4,4

1

0,5

Demar

19,1

9,8

2,2

1,1

Much better driver, much better finisher at the rim, improved passing, increased 3point Volume. He could still improve in those areas and develop for instance a pull up 3. He could also learn to run pick and roll something we see him do once in a while in NBA games.
He also improved his shot selection : he traded long 2 for 3: his 3 point rate went from 28,3% to 40% this season. His finishing from 3-10 feet improved but on a small sample size.

Scoring

Scoring 2020/21 per36mpg

Ppg

FGA/game

Point Per Shot

180

Derozan

21,2

14,7

1,44

174

Dejounte

15,8

16,5

0,96

163

Lonnie

14,9

13,9

1,07

160

Keldon

17,4

13,6

1,28

163

Derrick 19/20 season

11,3

8,1

1,39

173

Devin

11,4

10,1

1,13

175

Mills

18,6

14,7

1,27

183

I have added Derozan and Mills in that tab as comparison point for the young player, since stats in a vacuum doesn't mean much.
Despite being a good shooter, he actually have a lower Point Per Shot than Keldon. Like Dejounte, he tends to avoid contact which means he doesn't draw a lot of FT. That was a tendency already in college and in the bubble. I think that in the longterm would cap his offensive efficency. I think Lonnie path to helping his team offensively would be through his spacing. If his handle improves he could also be more efficient attacking the rim. However, he cannot create his own shot regularly nor create for his teammate. In that regard Dejounte can do both but not efficiently enough to sustain an above average offense: you can't build a good offense around player averaging 1 point/shot.

Passing

Assist per 36

College per 36

G League per 36

NBA bubble

NBA 2020/21

Keldon

1,9

2,9

1,1

2,7

Lonnie

2,4

2,3

2,8

2,7

Dejounte

4,7

6,4

4,3

6,2

Derrick

4,8

4,4

5,0

5,9

Devin

1,1

NA

NA

2,2

Despite his playing time and his improvement in the bubble he remains so far one of the worst passer among the team's guard. However I remain optimistic that he could still improve in that area. In fact IMMO I believe he already had. Some of his drive doesn't end in turnover or missed shot but rather in a pass. Sometimes it is a kick out, more rarely a dump off. Sometimes it is also a pass that simply reset the offense.

Conclusion


Of course it is still possible that Lonnie improved during the season on those areas or elsewhere. I, for instance didn't really believe Dejounte and Lonnie could improved their rim accuracy. I might be too high on Devin or Keldon. The Spurs might have enough cap space to extend him next offseason. He could also take the proverbial leap in his 4th year and got an extension there. One of the guard could get traded freeing up a roster spot and some minutes. Much simpler, he is the best shooter of the bunch and none of Keldon, Dejounte or Derrick have proven to be as good a shooter as Lonnie.
I currently see Lonnie as Dejounte last season: an up and coming young player, very athletic, making progress in his handle, shot selection, expanding his repertoire of shoot (midrange for Dejounte, 3pt for Lonnie) but still struggling to consistently finish at the rim or consistently being able to reach the rim on his drive. His drive are still a bit wild but at least he doesn't turn it over, meaning he knows his limitations more, he's more in control. He is also able to kick out the ball cleanly to the perimeter which doesn't always lead to assist but put the team in a good position to score.
However, contrary to Dejounte he cannot count on his defense or playmaking to stay on the floor, only on his 3pt shooting.

Spurs young guard ranking

Lonnie

Dejounte

Derrick

Devin

Keldon

Self-creation

4th

2nd

1st

5th

3rd

Creation for other

3rd

2nd

1st

5th

4th

Off-ball D

4th

2nd

2nd

1st

3rd

On-ball D

5th

2nd

1st

4th

3rd

Switchability

3rd

4th

2nd

4th

1st

Athleticism

1st

2nd

4th

4th

3rd

Spacing

1st

4th

2nd

2nd

5th

Total

20

18

13

23

22

I finish this piece with a highly debatable ranking of the Spurs young guards. The total is simply the addition of the ranking. So the lower the total the better the player. We haven't seen much of Devin so it is the least certain ranking especially for his offensive ability. There is a good chance he will look much better next year. He might also have the ball more and more freedom to create his own shot.

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