FanPost

Is Offense or Defense the Bigger Problem?

Introduction

A few days ago, I looked and SAS had a balanced style 21st place in both offensive and defensive ratings. I began to wonder what is SAS’s greater problem, offense or defense. As I write this, SAS is 14th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating. This conforms to the widespread remarks saying SAS’s main problem is defense. Over the last 12 games (roughly half the games played), SAS is 17th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating seemingly continuing to confirm that defense is the greater problem.

However, over the last five games, SAS’s offensive rating is 25th and defensive rating 14th. This middle of the pack defensive rating (108.4 points per 100 possessions) is despite being blown out by DET while minus Aldridge and Metu.

What has happened

Over the last eight games, SAS scored 104, 111, 104, 101, 107, 98, 116 (in regulation), and 105. The league average is 110.5 points per game. But, you say, SAS plays at a slower pace, so lower scores are to be expected. First of all, SAS’s pace this season is middle of the pack (14th) and its rank in pace during the last 8 games was also 14th. Second, over the last eight games, SAS’s offensive rating ranked 24th.

By way of contrast, SAS’s defensive rating has been improving. For the season SAS ranks 23rd, for the last 12 games 23rd, last 8 games 19th, and the last 5 games 14th. It remains at best an average defense. However, this improvement contrasts with the offensive scoring that has decreased over time.

One might think that the personnel being played has moved over time to a more defensively skilled set of players. This is somewhat the case, but not as one would expect. Replacing Lyles with Gay would not seem an offensive downgrade, but Gay’s scoring is down from last season and Lyles has begun taking and making threes. Over the last eight games, Lyles offensive rating was second from the top among rotation players and Gay’s second from the bottom.

The increased minutes for Walker may improve the offense, but over the last eight games, all of which he played in, his offensive rating was 105.2 – not good but still fourth among rotation players.

Indeed, over these last eight games, only Poeltl approached league average, but his offensive rating was only 108.4 (The league median is 108.8.) As mentioned, the next highest-ranked player in offensive rating was Lyles, but his offensive rating was distinctly lower at 106.8. (All according to NBA.com)

Conclusion

The entire SAS team needs to improve on offense more than it needs to on defense. However, it needs substantial improvement on both ends of the court. Watching SAS play, they appear to be playing at far below maximum ability, as a team and often individually, so substantial improvement appears a realistic possibility. Having practice time in December due to playing only 10 games increases the chance of doing so.

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