FanPost

Do the Spurs really need a top Lottery pick?

As we fans have already seen this season so far (a whole 22 games), the Spurs are struggling, and at times that description seems to be an understatement. The offence hasn’t really consistently clicked (because players like Forbes, White and Murray have been very inconsistent), the defence (for which the Spurs were built on) has been non-existent, and several players (cough, cough – Marco) have just seemed to disappear completely.

So, the end result of this season’s play is that the Spurs might just be looking at drafting in the lottery for the first time since Mr Timothy Duncan was chosen with the 1st Pick.

PTR member ExiledDFW did a Fan Post "In Love with the Lottery" and it looked at why teams are in love with the lottery.

This post is sort of a flipped view of that. I looked at the Top 20 players in the categories below, and where they were drafted. I averaged the draft position for those 20 players for each category. It sorts of paints an interesting picture for where the Spurs might want to look at drafting.

So here it goes:

Points: This was the lowest average for any of the categories, with 7.5, which does show that teams are often picking for offensive output in the top ten picks. There were four #1 picks in this list, however, there were quite a few players in the 10-15 pick range. With Pascal Siakam was the lowest drafted player at 27th.

Assists: The average was 11.75. There were only two #1 picks in this list, with several players having been picked in the late 1st Rd or early 2nd Rds. Again, Fred van Fleet pops up and is the undrafted player who is the outlier.

Steals: The average was 14.8, with only one #1 draft pick in the list. There were several players who were late 1st Rd or early 2nd Rd draft picks, which pulled the average down a bit. The outlier here was Fred van Fleet who went undrafted and was within the Top 20 group in this category.

Blocks: The average was 12.25. Where again there were a few late 1st Rd or early 2ndRd draft picks who had an impact in this category. There were four #1 Picks in this list, where Daniel Theiss was the undrafted player to show up in the Top 20.

Rebounds: The average was 13.85. Nikola Jokic was drafted at 41 in the 2nd Rd, which contrasts the two #1 picks that were found in the Top 20 players.

If you average all of the averages of each category, then you get – 12.03.

What was interesting to see was that the #1 picks were pretty much all the same couple of players in Lebron, Anthony Davis, KAT and Ben Simmons. In regard to Spurs players, only Aldridge and Murray showed up in the Top 20 of those categories.

So, what does this mean for the Spurs in the next draft…probably nothing at all, because they are great at drafting (well usually). But – Given a look at the Top 20 of those categories the Spurs should aim for the mid to late lottery (if they continue to suck for the rest of the season).

Is this a high ceiling type of draft in 2020? Where there are some generational type players? I really am not sure. I think there might be some good players in the lottery, particularly guards, there aren’t many SF’s or PF’s in that range, and even fewer 5’s – and there are no bigs who have two-way stretch potential. It will be interesting where the Spurs do pick. If they hover around the same win/loss ratio they currently are – then they may hit that mid to late lottery range. But if the balls fall in the right way and they get a Top 3 pick then there are only a couple of options that would fit the Spurs at all – Wiseman a tall, strong centre (who can’t hit from deep and is going to miss nearly half an NCAA season), and Anthony who can score from any range, has solid D but is short (6’3) and is another guard.

Have you been paying attention to the Mock Drafts already? Who do you think might be a target for the Spurs? Or do you think they try to use that pick as a trade chip for a top flight player?

My two-cents worth – Onyeka Okongwu or if they want another young project (like Luka) Deni Avdija – might be good choices.


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