FanPost

How Did SAS Get High Defensive Rating Despite Problems? + Poll


SAS has many distinctly mediocre defensive statistics (44 games 2017-18). These include SAS 14th in second-chance points (12.2 per 100 possessions), 15th in opponents’ fastbreak points (11.3/100p), 14th in opponents’ points in the paint (44.3/100p), 17th in opponents’ turnovers (14.6/100p), 15th in opponents’ points after turnovers, 19th in steals (7.5/100p), and 25th in opponent field goal attempts allowed (86.8/100p). Yet, SAS is 2nd in defensive rating at 101.0. How does SAS overall defense rate as excellent while such stats are not?

Even more, how did SAS do it despite being 9th in pick and roll ball handler defense, 9th in spot-ups, 15st in pick and roll pop or roll man, 27th in defense against the handoff play type? I pass over without mention that this high rating was despite frequently missing some of SAS’s best defensive players.

The answer lies mainly in opponents’ quality of shooting. SAS is 5th in opponent FG% (44.9%), 5th in opponent 3P% (34.8%), and 9th in opponents’ 3PA (27.3/100p). Opponents have shot 49.5% (24th) from two, but having opponents take a less than the average number of the higher value 3-point shots per possession and yielding a relatively low percentage on them has been effective. In part, this resulted from SAS effecting opponents’ shooting by blocking the 3rd most shots (5.6/100p). In addition, SAS was 3rd in opponents FG% within 3 feet of the basket (62.3%) representing excellent rim protection on the 28.2% of their shots that opponents took there (14th).

In addition, SAS’s opponents drew the 2nd least fouls of any team’s opponents (SAS committed 17.7 per 100p). The result was SAS ranked 4th in opponent free throw attempts (19.1 FTA), and, evidently, SAS fouled the right players as opponents shot the worse FT%, 73.5%, of any team’s opponents. I estimate that being smart regarding when to foul is worth about two points better than average per 100p and being smart regarding who to foul about half a point. This in itself turns out to be valuable. Perhaps surprisingly so, when compared who to foul is worth roughly half a point per 100 possessions and currently (Jan. 15) MIN and SAS are separated by 0.3 points/100p and 0.5 plus-minus points per game. After all of this, the result was 14.0 made opponent free throws per 100 possessions, effectively tied for first with CLE.

Thus, SAS’s points yielded per 100 possessions on defense were made up of 58.8 points from 2-point shots, 28.5 points from 3-point shots, 14 points from free throws for a total of 101.4/100p [rounding]. So far, statistics have been per 100 opponent possessions. For defensive ratings, possessions are figured using an average across both teams causing SAS’s defensive rating to be a slightly smaller 101.0. SAS’s defense is ranked second regardless of how it is calculated. Using defensive rating, SAS was 0.4 behind BOS in first and 1.9 ahead of GSW in third.

Regarding play types, SAS had a number of types where they did quite well. SAS was 5th in transition defense, 8th in isolation, 2nd in post up, 6th in cuts, 2nd in off screen, and 7th in defense against putbacks.

CONCLUSION

SAS’s second-ranked defensive rating was mainly the result of:

• Defense against opponents shooting particularly opponents 3-point shooting with a lower than average number of attempts and a low 3P% for opponents resulting in sixth lowest opponents’ made 3-pointers per 100 possessions

• Defending without fouling and fouling the right players resulting in only 14 FTM/100p

SAS was particularly good defending the play types of transition, post up, and off screen and was only ranked particularly badly against the handoff type play that constituted 4.7% of the plays against SAS.

POSTSCRIPT

A few more tidbits. SAS’s opponents relatively large number of shot attempts was partially the result of SAS defensive rebounding at 79%. Though this ranked 6th, SAS has often done better in previous years. On average, SAS opponents took 16.6% of their shots from mid-range. However, in SAS wins this was 17.9% and in losses 13.6%. Interestingly, SAS opponents 3P% was even worse, in fact terrible, in clutch time – 23.7% in last 5 minutes within five points and 1 of 10 in last 30 seconds behind by 3 or less.

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