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ESPN projects Spurs will win second most games next season

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San Antonio Spurs v Phoenix Suns Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Sportsbooks have not yet put out their over/under win totals for teams yet, but Kevin Pelton at ESPN is taking a crack at predicting how teams will do based on projected real plus-minus. You’ll need an ESPN insider subscription to read the whole article which can be found here.

To see how projecting playing time for players was determined let’s have a look at Pelton’s words,

Like last season, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed based on the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.

The Warriors, deservedly, are projected to finish well above the pack with Pelton’s system projecting almost 67 wins for Golden State.

The Spurs, with a 54.5-win projection, are second in the projections.

It's a huge step downward to second place in the West. With Tim Duncan's retirement and the aging of other core players, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay with Golden State in the regular season as they did last season. But RPM still has them comfortably second in the West.

The rest of the West shakes out as follows:

3. 47.3 wins - Utah Jazz
4. 46.3 wins - LA Clippers
5. 45.8 wins - Houston Rockets
6. 45.6 wins - OKC Thunder
7. 44.5 wins - Portland Trail Blazers
8. 40.4 wins - Denver Nuggets
9. 39.4 wins - Memphis Grizzlies
10. 37.7 wins - Sacramento Kings
11. 37.1 wins - Minnesota Timberwolves
12. 37.0 wins - New Orleans Pelicans
13. 34.3 wins - Dallas Mavericks
14. 29.2 wins - Phoenix Suns
15. 24.3 wins - LA Lakers

And the East:

  1. 52.1 wins - Cleveland Cavaliers

2. 49.8 wins - Boston Celtics
3. 48.8 wins - Toronto Raptors
4. 47.5 wins - Detroit Pistons
5. 41.4 wins - Washington Wizards
6. 41.0 wins - Charlotte Hornets
7. 40.9 wins - Milwaukee Bucks
8. 38.9 wins - Indiana Pacers
9. 38.6 wins - Atlanta Hawks
10. 38.3 wins - Miami Heat
11. 37.8 wins - Chicago Bulls
12. 36.2 wins - Orlando Magic
13. 34.7 wins - New York Knicks
14. 28.8 wins - Brooklyn Nets
15. 24.5 wins - Philadelphia 76ers