By the Numbers: Hot-handed Spurs cruise past Blazers

The Spurs struggled to slow down the Blazers early, but exploded for a 39-point third quarter to cruise to an easy victory, their 34th home victory of the year.

By BrettJones@comradebernout Mar 18, 2016, 10:15am CDT

Spurs 118, Trail Blazers 110 - Mar 17, '16

Tony Parker really stole the show in this one, scoring 18 points and dishing out a season-high 16 assists. After a couple of rough games, he found his rhythm against Damian Lillard, who always seems to bring out the best in Tony.
Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points on just 11 shots despite shooting only two free throws. I'll take 22 pts on 11 shots over 36 on 35 shots any day of the week.
To get a feel for just how outrageously effective Kawhi and Tony were, consider that LaMarcus Aldridge's fantastic 22 points on 9-14 shooting was only good for third in Adjust Game Score.
Despite the great numbers by the Spurs' Big Three Of The Night, this game was really a team effort, with 6 players contributing over 0.5 AdjGS/minute (7 if you count Diaw's oh-so-close 0.49). Danny and Patty were locked in, going 4-6 from deep and making great defensive plays, and Timmy tallied 11 points on 6 shots with 7 boards and 2 blocks to boot.
The Spurs put up a ridiculous 6.14 Ball Control Index, the highest I can ever recall seeing. As a team, they notched a 5:1 Assist/Turnover ratio. It just doesn't get much better than that.
As amazing as the ball control was, San Antonio struggled to keep Portland off the boards in what was easily the worst blemish on this game. The Spurs were -8 in Expected Offensive rebounds, a major edge which helped Portland stick around long past when they should have thrown in the towel. Expect Pop to harp on this ahead of Saturday's big showdown with Golden State. Extra possessions against the Warriors are not something San Antonio can afford if they want to stay unbeaten at home.

Four Factors (def.)

	Spurs	Trail Blazers
Shooting (eFG%)	57%	49%
Ball Handling (TO%)	7%	13%
Off Rebounding (OR%)	10%	30%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate)	26%	34%

Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)

	Spurs	Trail Blazers
Pace (No. of Possessions)	99.9
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.18	1.10
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.37	1.24
2-PT FG%	52.9%	43.3%
3-PT FG%	50.0%	45.5%
FT%	90.9%	73.3%
True Shooting %	61.7%	53.8%

	Spurs	Trail Blazers
Offensive Rating	119.6	108.7
Defensive Rating	108.7	119.6
Net Rating	10.9	-10.9

	Spurs	Trail Blazers
Passes / poss.	2.8	2.8
% of FGA uncontested	44.2%	44.9%
Points in the paint	42	36
Second chance points	6	24
Fast break points	11	17

	Spurs	Trail Blazers
Assists	35	23
Steals	8	5
Turnovers	7	13
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	6.14	2.15

	Spurs	Trail Blazers
Expected Offensive Rebounds	9.8	11.8
Offensive Rebounds	4	14
Difference	-5.8	2.2

Spurs Shot Chart

Trail Blazers Shot Chart

Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)

Spurs

Player	Min	AdjGS	GS/Min	Line	Usage%	Floor%	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
Tony Parker	27	24.2	0.89	18 Pts (7-13 FG, 4-4 FT) 1 Reb (0 Off), 16 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO, 1 PF	30%	66%	141.8	107.2	34.5
Kawhi Leonard	31	21.7	0.71	22 Pts (8-11 FG, 4-4 3PT, 2-2 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 3 Blk, 1 PF	19%	74%	134.2	102.0	32.1
LaMarcus Aldridge	26	18.9	0.72	22 Pts (9-14 FG, 4-5 FT) 6 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 2 PF	32%	62%	142.4	112.4	30.1
Danny Green	24	13.4	0.56	7 Pts (2-3 FG, 1-2 3PT, 2-2 FT) 5 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 3 Blk, 2 Stl, 3 PF	8%	84%	136.4	103.1	33.3
Patty Mills	21	13.4	0.64	17 Pts (6-12 FG, 3-4 3PT, 2-2 FT) 2 Reb (1 Off), 2 Ast, 2 PF	27%	54%	90.8	110.4	-19.6
Tim Duncan	21	12.2	0.58	11 Pts (5-6 FG, 1-1 FT) 7 Reb (0 Off), 2 Blk, 2 PF	15%	84%	153.3	101.9	51.4
Boris Diaw	14	7.0	0.49	9 Pts (4-7 FG, 0-1 3PT, 1-1 FT) 3 Reb (1 Off), 1 PF	23%	56%	82.5	104.4	-21.9
Kevin Martin	21	6.8	0.32	8 Pts (3-9 FG, 0-3 3PT, 2-3 FT) 4 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 PF	22%	43%	104.6	111.0	-6.4
Kyle Anderson	15	2.5	0.17	0 Pts 4 Reb (0 Off), 4 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 4 PF	3%	60%	102.5	130.1	-27.7
Andre Miller	2	0.0	0.00	0 Pts ,	0%	0%	40.0	136.1	-96.1
Manu Ginobili	18	-0.3	-0.02	2 Pts (0-4 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2-2 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 TO, 3 PF	18%	28%	101.0	119.7	-18.7
Boban Marjanovic	2	-0.4	-0.19	0 Pts , 1 PF	0%	0%	40.0	136.1	-96.1
David West	17	-1.3	-0.08	2 Pts (1-7 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 2 Blk, 1 TO, 2 PF	21%	19%	101.9	91.2	10.7

Show Trail Blazers Players

Player	Min	AdjGS	GS/Min	Line	Usage%	Floor%	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
CJ McCollum	39	24.8	0.63	26 Pts (10-20 FG, 4-6 3PT, 2-2 FT) 7 Reb (1 Off), 2 Ast, 2 Blk, 1 Stl, 3 TO, 1 PF	26%	49%	107.1	126.8	-19.7
Damian Lillard	40	19.3	0.48	23 Pts (7-19 FG, 3-7 3PT, 6-6 FT) 3 Reb (0 Off), 6 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 TO, 4 PF	24%	52%	112.7	118.2	-5.6
Chris Kaman	15	15.9	1.06	12 Pts (5-6 FG, 2-2 FT) 5 Reb (3 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 TO, 2 PF	23%	78%	113.0	133.8	-20.7
Mason Plumlee	28	13.8	0.48	12 Pts (3-8 FG, 6-9 FT) 8 Reb (2 Off), 5 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 TO, 4 PF	21%	50%	117.6	128.5	-10.9
Ed Davis	17	10.5	0.61	5 Pts (1-4 FG, 3-7 FT) 9 Reb (3 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl,	17%	50%	87.2	107.6	-20.4
Al-Farouq Aminu	27	7.7	0.29	8 Pts (3-10 FG, 2-5 3PT ) 6 Reb (2 Off), 4 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 TO, 1 PF	18%	36%	109.6	136.5	-26.9
Gerald Henderson	25	7.7	0.31	10 Pts (3-5 FG, 1-1 3PT, 3-4 FT) 4 Reb (0 Off), 1 TO, 4 PF	14%	60%	114.9	105.5	9.4
Noah Vonleh	11	6.9	0.62	8 Pts (4-7 FG, ) 4 Reb (2 Off), 1 TO, 1 PF	31%	50%	95.2	157.1	-61.9
Allen Crabbe	26	1.8	0.07	4 Pts (2-5 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 2 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 4 PF	8%	47%	114.0	100.9	13.1
Maurice Harkless	9	1.6	0.17	2 Pts (1-4 FG, 0-2 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 PF	18%	27%	100.2	82.8	17.4
Brian Roberts	3	0.0	0.00	0 Pts (0-1 FG, ) , 1 Ast,	13%	34%	76.1	66.7	9.5

Spurs Index: 104.7 (def.)

Factor	Value	Score
Passing (AST%)	77.8%	37.6
Shooting (eFG%)	57.0%	21.2
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)	70.2%	18.4
Defense (DefRtg)	108.7	18.4
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested	44.9%	9.1
Total		104.7

Trail Blazers Spurs Index: 96.4 Show Breakdown

Confused? Show Advanced Stats Glossary

eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions.

Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:

Factor	Weight	Average
Passing (AST%)	30%	62.1%
Shooting (eFG%)	20%	53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)	20%	76.4%
Defense (DefRtg)	20%	100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested	10%	40.8%

The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.

Special thanks to:

Bill Connelly over at our sister blog Rock M Nation, for the idea for Study Hall (and many of the stats and definitions)
Nick Bottomley, whose nba stats API project made it possible to automate the statistical breakdowns for every game