FanPost

Manu Ginobili and Jonathon Simmons


During his time in the Summer League Jonathon Simmons ignited a fire of outlandish speculation. Pop praised his court vision and basketball IQ, porous SL defense allowed him to showcase his athleticism, the loss of bench play makers made Spurs fans desperate to believe that we had found someone to come in off the bed and provide exciting scoring and hustle defense. Spurs fans wanted a new Manu, so we created one; we linked Pop's comments to Simmons' unrelenting motor and ordained a 26 year old rookie to be the next Manu Ginobili.

A few months pass, an underwhelming performance during preseason, a trip to Austin, very limited minutes, and numerous other factors had tampered the speculation fire. But luckily for us, even without Simmons, Manu and Mills were able to carry the back court bench production and make fans remember that maybe we don't need a new Manu, because we still have Manu.

Then came last week. Simmons posted an average of 11 ppg while shooting 77% and providing some very pretty play making highlights. The fire was stoked once more. PTR threads lit up with expressions like "Manu-esque," and "New Big Three." Now a certain combination of cynicism mixed with a near mythic love of Manu's rookie season (I still remember using dial-up to load up the web page announcing the spurs had signed some crafty lefty from Argentina), made me think, no way, he's had a couple good games but he is already in his mid 20s and there is no way he will be the next Manu. However, I like to back up my arguments. Realizing that both Simmons and Manu came into the NBA in their mid 20s, I thought comparing their rookie years would be interesting and give us a better understanding of how productive Simmons' rookie campaign has been.

Using Basketball Reference, I looked at the two players' rookie year stats using per 36 minute stats, per 100 possession stats, advanced stats and shooting stats.

Season

Age

Tm

Lg

Pos

G

GS

MP

FG

FGA

FG%

3P

3PA

3P%

2P

2PA

2P%

FT

FTA

FT%

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

2002-03

25

SAS

NBA

SG

69

5

1431

4.4

10.0

.438

1.3

3.7

.345

3.1

6.3

.494

3.2

4.3

.737

1.2

2.9

4.1

3.5

2.4

0.4

2.5

4.3

13.2

2015-16

26

SAS

NBA

SG

23

0

305

5.9

11.0

.538

1.1

2.5

.429

4.8

8.5

.569

4.1

5.1

.814

0.6

3.9

4.5

3.8

1.2

0.1

3.1

5.1

17.0

Per 36 Minutes ↑ Per 100 Possessions ↓

Season

Age

Tm

Lg

Pos

G

GS

MP

FG

FGA

FG%

3P

3PA

3P%

2P

2PA

2P%

FT

FTA

FT%

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

ORtg

DRtg

2002-03

25

SAS

NBA

SG

69

5

1431

6.5

14.8

.438

1.9

5.5

.345

4.6

9.3

.494

4.7

6.4

.737

1.8

4.2

6.0

5.1

3.6

0.6

3.7

6.3

19.6

106

98

2015-16

26

SAS

NBA

SG

23

0

305

8.4

15.6

.538

1.5

3.5

.429

6.9

12.1

.569

5.9

7.2

.814

0.8

5.5

6.4

5.4

1.7

0.2

4.4

7.2

24.2

112

98

Season

Age

Tm

Lg

Pos

G

MP

PER

TS%

3PAr

FTr

ORB%

DRB%

TRB%

AST%

STL%

BLK%

TOV%

USG%

OWS

DWS

WS

WS/48

OBPM

DBPM

BPM

VORP

2002-03

25

SAS

NBA

SG

69

1431

14.7

.556

.373

.431

4.0

8.8

6.5

15.8

3.6

0.8

17.5

18.5

1.8

2.4

4.2

.141

1.1

1.5

2.6

1.7

2015-16

26

SAS

NBA

SG

23

305

15.4

.643

.226

.462

2.0

11.6

7.1

15.4

1.7

0.3

18.9

20.7

0.6

0.6

1.2

.185

0.5

0.4

0.9

0.2

Advanced Stats↑ Shooting Stats↓

Season

Age

Tm

Lg

Pos

G

MP

FG%

Dist.

2P

0-3

3-10

10-16

16 <3

3P

2P

0-3

3-10

10-16

16 <3

3P

(2 pts)

%Ast'd

(Dunls)

%FGA

(Dunks)

Md.

(3s)

%Ast'd

(Corner 3s)

%3PA

(Corner 3s)

3P%

2002-03

25

SAS

NBA

SG

69

1431

.438

12.6

.627

.343

.154

.068

.063

.373

.494

.647

.295

.370

.280

.345

.431

.045

17

.902

.318

.277

2015-16

26

SAS

NBA

SG

22

288

.523

8.2

.802

.512

.163

.047

.081

.198

.551

.682

.286

.500

.286

.412

.763

.128

9

1.000

.471

.625

The Stat line on top of each category is Manu's rookie year, the bottom is Simmons'.

The first thing that jumped out to me was how poor Manu's threes were his rookie year, 34% from beyond the arc does not remind me much of Manu, but then I remember that the league wasn't as three driven as it is today and that the players were not as high percentage as they are now. However, as I looked deeper at the stats it becomes clear that on both the per 36 minute and per 100 possessions, Simmons is more efficient as a shooter than Manu was, but also a more talented rebounder and providing similar assist numbers.

The only categories that Manu was markedly better than Simmons were defensive stats like blocks and especially steals.

What I think is more interesting is found in the advanced stats and shooting stats. In the advanced stats we see that Simmons has a similar free throw rate and a higher true shooting percentage. This makes sense because when we look at his shooting selection we see that over 50 percentage of Simmons' shots were within 3 feet of the hoop, these are high percentage shots that are conducive to free throw opportunities. Manu only shot 34% of his shots from within 3 feet, which means that he was also utilizing a midrange game that Simmons hasn't been able to utilize (less than 30% of Simmons' shots are between 3 feet from the basket and the three point line, and less than 20% from behind the arc).

As we continue looking at the advanced shooting stats, the other number that interests me is that Simmons is assisted on 76% of his two point fgs, Manu in his rookie year was only assisted on 43% of his fgs.

Those last two stats, the percentage of fgs assisted on and the preference of inside shots for Simmons shows an important distinction between the two players. Manu was able to run isolation plays for himself that often resulted in mid range jump shots. Simmons has not shown that ability either in stats or on game tape. This allows Simmons to be a more efficient scorer, but it also provides a distinguishing element from his game and Manu's. Even as a rookie, Manu could have the ball in his hand and create his own shot. Something that Simmons has not been able to accomplish yet.

However with that being said, there are so many amazing stats to look at with Simmons, his high efficiency rating, his rebounding rates, his comparable assist numbers, his usage percentage. All of these stats show that Simmons is an active contributor rather than just a stiff off the bench. He might not be Manu, but that's OK, we will probably never see another Manu. I'll settle for some amazing athlete with great basketball instincts who can clean the boards and pass at will. What he lacks in terms of mid-range isolation game, he makes up for with his ability to get to the hoop, and that's something to be extremely excited for.

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