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Spurs out-everything overmatched Nuggets

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The Spurs unsurprisingly drew advantages all of the board in a supremely Spurs-like beatdown that was truly over just 10 minutes in.

Spurs 123, Nuggets 93 - Apr 3, '15

There's not too terribly much to glean from a blowout against a bad team like this, but nonetheless there are some interesting things to note here.  For one, the Spurs managed to best the Nuggets in every single statistical category, with the sole exception being a one point Nuggets advantage in fast break points.  From FG% to rebounding to assists, the Spurs matched or bested the poor Nuggets in all of them.  I'm not sure why but I find that pretty amusing/satisfying.

The biggest advantage lay shooting, with the Spurs shooting an excellent 41.2% from deep (thank you, Danny Green) and a downright absurd 64.7% from inside the arc.  Throw in an also-outstanding  88.2% from the line and the Spurs managed an outrageous 66.5% True Shooting percentage.  I'll take it.

The Spurs also enjoyed a healthy advantage of +4.2 expected Offensive Rebounds as they not only outplayed but also out-hustled a Nuggets squad which must have been pining for the game's merciful end.  

The only quibble I might have with the Spurs' overall performance would be the 18 turnovers.  The Spurs have been a bit sloppy with the ball of late, particularly in some of their blowouts (i.e. all of their games of late).  Hopefully when games are tighter they will do a better job taking care of the ball.

Four Factors (def.)

Spurs Nuggets
Shooting (eFG%) 59% 49%
Ball Handling (TO%) 19% 18%
Off Rebounding (OR%) 38% 26%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate) 20% 13%

Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)

Spurs Nuggets
Pace (No. of Possessions) 97.7
Points Per Possession (PPP) 1.26 0.95
Points Per Shot (PPS) 1.45 1.07
2-PT FG% 64.7% 48.6%
3-PT FG% 41.2% 35.3%
FT% 88.2% 63.6%
True Shooting % 66.5% 50.6%
Spurs
Nuggets
Offensive Rating 127.5 94.1
Defensive Rating 94.1 127.5
Net Rating 33.4 -33.4
Spurs Nuggets
Passes / poss. 3.8 2.4
% of FGA uncontested 54.1% 28.7%
Points in the paint 48 48
Second chance points 20 10
Fast break points 12 13
Spurs Nuggets
Assists 33 17
Steals 11 8
Turnovers 18 18
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.44 1.39
Spurs Nuggets
Expected Offensive Rebounds 9.3 10.5
Offensive Rebounds 14 11
Difference 4.7 0.5

Spurs Shot Chart

Nuggets Shot Chart

Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)

Spurs

Player
Min
AdjGS
GS/Min
Line
Usage%
Floor%
OffRtg
DefRtg
NetRtg
Danny Green 20 18.8 0.93 21 Pts (7-9 FG, 6-6 3PT, 1-1 FT) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 TO, 1 PF 26% 66% 155.0 106.9 48.1
Kawhi Leonard 22 18.4 0.85 20 Pts (9-13 FG, 2-4 3PT ) 2 Reb (0 Off), 4 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 3 PF 30% 70% 164.8 102.1 62.7
Aron Baynes 19 18.4 0.99 18 Pts (6-8 FG, 6-6 FT) 4 Reb (2 Off), 2 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 2 PF 27% 82% 129.9 96.8 33.1
Boris Diaw 26 10.6 0.41 13 Pts (5-11 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT) 4 Reb (1 Off), 2 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 TO 22% 50% 111.9 85.6 26.3
Marco Belinelli 21 8.9 0.43 14 Pts (5-12 FG, 4-10 3PT ) 6 Reb (2 Off), 1 TO, 2 PF 28% 41% 116.0 92.2 23.8
Tony Parker 25 8.4 0.33 4 Pts (2-4 FG, ) , 9 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF 9% 69% 154.1 103.8 50.4
Tim Duncan 20 8.0 0.40 4 Pts (1-1 FG, 2-2 FT) 7 Reb (0 Off), 4 Ast, 2 Blk, 2 TO, 1 PF 9% 64% 153.4 99.5 53.9
Manu Ginobili 19 7.7 0.41 4 Pts (2-6 FG, 0-4 3PT, 0-1 FT) 6 Reb (3 Off), 5 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF 17% 46% 128.7 88.1 40.6
Tiago Splitter 6 7.2 1.11 7 Pts (3-4 FG, 1-1 FT) 2 Reb (2 Off), 29% 84% 193.5 105.1 88.3
Cory Joseph 17 6.0 0.35 7 Pts (3-4 FG, 1-2 FT) 2 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 3 TO, 1 PF 18% 50% 83.7 74.3 9.4
Jeff Ayres 9 5.2 0.55 6 Pts (2-3 FG, 2-2 FT) 5 Reb (1 Off), 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 3 TO, 1 PF 28% 42% 70.9 78.3 -7.4
Matt Bonner 22 3.4 0.15 3 Pts (1-3 FG, 1-3 3PT ) 4 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 1 PF 6% 47% 99.8 97.4 2.4
Patty Mills 14 2.0 0.14 2 Pts (1-7 FG, 0-3 3PT ) 2 Reb (1 Off), 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF 22% 32% 94.5 87.4 7.0

Show Nuggets Players

Danny, Kawhi and Aron killed it in this one.  They combined for an outrageous 1.97 points per shot, a number which is even crazier given that it was skewed by just 7 free throws (free throws skew points-per-shot since they are, well Free points).  Even if you take out the free throws, that's still 1.73.  That's some pretty awesome efficiency.

Diaw and Belinelli shouldered much of the rest of the scoring load, Tony Parker was in facilitator mode with 9 assists to 4 shots, and the rest of the squad pitched in with solid performance to round out the box score.

The only thing to be concerned about was Patty Mills' continued struggles.  Boy do I hope that something clicks with him soon.

Spurs Index: 110.6 (def.)

Factor Value Score
Passing (AST%) 70.2% 33.9
Shooting (eFG%) 58.8% 21.9
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%) 73.8% 19.3
Defense (DefRtg) 94.1 21.3
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested 28.7% 14.2
Total 110.6

Nuggets Spurs Index: 78.3 Show Breakdown

No surprise here, the Spurs Index on this one was really, really high.  If the Spurs can manage a 110+ mark on Sunday versus the Warriors, I think we'll all go to bed feeling pretty good about our boys in Silver and Black.

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Definitions

eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions.

Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:

Factor Weight Average
Passing (AST%) 30% 62.1%
Shooting (eFG%) 20% 53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%) 20% 76.4%
Defense (DefRtg) 20% 100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested 10% 40.8%
The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.

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