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Spurs 123, Nuggets 93 - Apr 3, '15
There's not too terribly much to glean from a blowout against a bad team like this, but nonetheless there are some interesting things to note here. For one, the Spurs managed to best the Nuggets in every single statistical category, with the sole exception being a one point Nuggets advantage in fast break points. From FG% to rebounding to assists, the Spurs matched or bested the poor Nuggets in all of them. I'm not sure why but I find that pretty amusing/satisfying.
The biggest advantage lay shooting, with the Spurs shooting an excellent 41.2% from deep (thank you, Danny Green) and a downright absurd 64.7% from inside the arc. Throw in an also-outstanding 88.2% from the line and the Spurs managed an outrageous 66.5% True Shooting percentage. I'll take it.
The Spurs also enjoyed a healthy advantage of +4.2 expected Offensive Rebounds as they not only outplayed but also out-hustled a Nuggets squad which must have been pining for the game's merciful end.
The only quibble I might have with the Spurs' overall performance would be the 18 turnovers. The Spurs have been a bit sloppy with the ball of late, particularly in some of their blowouts (i.e. all of their games of late). Hopefully when games are tighter they will do a better job taking care of the ball.
Four Factors (def.)
Spurs
Nuggets
Shooting (eFG%)
59%
49%
Ball Handling (TO%)
19%
18%
Off Rebounding (OR%)
38%
26%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate)
20%
13%
Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)
Spurs
Nuggets
Pace (No. of Possessions)
97.7
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.26
0.95
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.45
1.07
2-PT FG%
64.7%
48.6%
3-PT FG%
41.2%
35.3%
FT%
88.2%
63.6%
True Shooting %
66.5%
50.6%
Spurs
Nuggets
Offensive Rating
127.5
94.1
Defensive Rating
94.1
127.5
Net Rating
33.4
-33.4
Spurs
Nuggets
Passes / poss.
3.8
2.4
% of FGA uncontested
54.1%
28.7%
Points in the paint
48
48
Second chance points
20
10
Fast break points
12
13
Spurs
Nuggets
Assists
33
17
Steals
11
8
Turnovers
18
18
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.44
1.39
Spurs
Nuggets
Expected Offensive Rebounds
9.3
10.5
Offensive Rebounds
14
11
Difference
4.7
0.5
Spurs Shot Chart
Nuggets Shot Chart
Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)
Spurs
Danny Green
20
18.8
0.93
21 Pts (7-9 FG, 6-6 3PT, 1-1 FT) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 TO, 1 PF
26%
66%
155.0
106.9
48.1
Kawhi Leonard
22
18.4
0.85
20 Pts (9-13 FG, 2-4 3PT ) 2 Reb (0 Off), 4 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 3 PF
30%
70%
164.8
102.1
62.7
Aron Baynes
19
18.4
0.99
18 Pts (6-8 FG, 6-6 FT) 4 Reb (2 Off), 2 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 2 PF
27%
82%
129.9
96.8
33.1
Boris Diaw
26
10.6
0.41
13 Pts (5-11 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT) 4 Reb (1 Off), 2 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 TO
22%
50%
111.9
85.6
26.3
Marco Belinelli
21
8.9
0.43
14 Pts (5-12 FG, 4-10 3PT ) 6 Reb (2 Off), 1 TO, 2 PF
28%
41%
116.0
92.2
23.8
Tony Parker
25
8.4
0.33
4 Pts (2-4 FG, ) , 9 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF
9%
69%
154.1
103.8
50.4
Tim Duncan
20
8.0
0.40
4 Pts (1-1 FG, 2-2 FT) 7 Reb (0 Off), 4 Ast, 2 Blk, 2 TO, 1 PF
9%
64%
153.4
99.5
53.9
Manu Ginobili
19
7.7
0.41
4 Pts (2-6 FG, 0-4 3PT, 0-1 FT) 6 Reb (3 Off), 5 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF
17%
46%
128.7
88.1
40.6
Tiago Splitter
6
7.2
1.11
7 Pts (3-4 FG, 1-1 FT) 2 Reb (2 Off),
29%
84%
193.5
105.1
88.3
Cory Joseph
17
6.0
0.35
7 Pts (3-4 FG, 1-2 FT) 2 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 3 TO, 1 PF
18%
50%
83.7
74.3
9.4
Jeff Ayres
9
5.2
0.55
6 Pts (2-3 FG, 2-2 FT) 5 Reb (1 Off), 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 3 TO, 1 PF
28%
42%
70.9
78.3
-7.4
Matt Bonner
22
3.4
0.15
3 Pts (1-3 FG, 1-3 3PT ) 4 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 1 PF
6%
47%
99.8
97.4
2.4
Patty Mills
14
2.0
0.14
2 Pts (1-7 FG, 0-3 3PT ) 2 Reb (1 Off), 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF
22%
32%
94.5
87.4
7.0
Show Nuggets Players
Danny, Kawhi and Aron killed it in this one. They combined for an outrageous 1.97 points per shot, a number which is even crazier given that it was skewed by just 7 free throws (free throws skew points-per-shot since they are, well Free points). Even if you take out the free throws, that's still 1.73. That's some pretty awesome efficiency.
Diaw and Belinelli shouldered much of the rest of the scoring load, Tony Parker was in facilitator mode with 9 assists to 4 shots, and the rest of the squad pitched in with solid performance to round out the box score.
The only thing to be concerned about was Patty Mills' continued struggles. Boy do I hope that something clicks with him soon.
Spurs Index: 110.6 (def.)
Factor
Value
Score
Passing (AST%)
70.2%
33.9
Shooting (eFG%)
58.8%
21.9
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)
73.8%
19.3
Defense (DefRtg)
94.1
21.3
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested
28.7%
14.2
Total
110.6
Nuggets Spurs Index: 78.3 Show Breakdown
No surprise here, the Spurs Index on this one was really, really high. If the Spurs can manage a 110+ mark on Sunday versus the Warriors, I think we'll all go to bed feeling pretty good about our boys in Silver and Black.
--- Definitions eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%). AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket. Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome. Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved. Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions. Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions. Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:
The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.
Factor
Weight
Average
Passing (AST%)
30%
62.1%
Shooting (eFG%)
20%
53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)
20%
76.4%
Defense (DefRtg)
20%
100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested
10%
40.8%
Special thanks to:
- Bill Connelly over at our sister blog Rock M Nation, for the idea for Study Hall (and many of the stats and definitions)
- Nick Bottomley, whose nba stats API project made it possible to automate the statistical breakdowns for every game