clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Spurs lock down overmatched Heat

New, comment

The Spurs shot the ball effectively, prevented the Heat from doing the same, and drew on ball control and rebounding. Result: a 14 point victory which was never truly in doubt after halfway mark of the 3rd quarter.

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Spurs 95, Heat 81 - Mar 31, '15

The Spurs took care of business in Miami, shooting efficiently from inside, outside and everything in between and preventing Miami from getting easy looks as they cruised to a 14 point victory.  The first half was a pretty ugly affair, with both teams starting slowly en route to a 20-19 Heat advantage at the end of 1.

Up until the last part of the 2nd quarter I found myself wondering how an unaltered Spurs squad which casually eviscerated the Heat the last time they travelled to Miami could be struggling with today's James- and Bosh-less Heat.  But as a forgettable first half wound down the Spurs went on a run to put themselves up 8 before a Mario Chalmers 3/4 court prayer immediately sent the Spurs into the half up 5.  The Spurs built on that lead in the 3rd, pushing the margin up to 11 to start the final frame, which they also won.  

The Spurs and Heat were very evenly matched in ballhandling and rebounding, with each squad garnering exactly as many offensive rebounds as expected, and the Spurs tossing the ball away once more, finishing with an ugly 19 turnovers, as Parker and Ginobili in particular struggled to maintain control, tossing it away 4 and 5 times respectively.  Diaw and Splitter each chipped in 3 of their own to push that number up to a level which could have been costly had the Spurs not enjoyed such a big advantage shooting the ball.

Four Factors (def.)

Spurs Heat
Shooting (eFG%) 51% 44%
Ball Handling (TO%) 21% 20%
Off Rebounding (OR%) 26% 25%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate) 23% 15%

Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)

Spurs Heat
Pace (No. of Possessions) 92.4
Points Per Possession (PPP) 1.03 0.88
Points Per Shot (PPS) 1.28 1.03
2-PT FG% 51.8% 42.2%
3-PT FG% 44.4% 33.3%
FT% 76.5% 100.0%
True Shooting % 58.3% 48.1%
Spurs
Heat
Offensive Rating 102.7 87.8
Defensive Rating 87.8 102.7
Net Rating 14.9 -14.9
Spurs Heat
Passes / poss. 3.2 2.6
% of FGA uncontested 51.4% 43.0%
Points in the paint 42 42
Second chance points 15 14
Fast break points 16 15
Spurs Heat
Assists 21 11
Steals 11 9
Turnovers 19 18
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.68 1.11
Spurs Heat
Expected Offensive Rebounds 7.8 10.0
Offensive Rebounds 8 10
Difference 0.2 -0.0

The Heat went 12/12 from the charity stripe as a team, which is pretty impressive and helped them stay in this one a bit longer than they otherwise would have.

Spurs Shot Chart

Heat Shot Chart

Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)

Spurs

Player
Min
AdjGS
GS/Min
Line
Usage%
Floor%
OffRtg
DefRtg
NetRtg
Kawhi Leonard 38 31.3 0.83 22 Pts (8-13 FG, 1-3 3PT, 5-6 FT) 9 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 2 Blk, 4 Stl, 1 TO, 2 PF 21% 68% 107.8 77.5 30.3
Tim Duncan 24 18.0 0.76 12 Pts (5-10 FG, 2-2 FT) 11 Reb (2 Off), 1 Ast, 3 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 PF 22% 59% 105.2 79.5 25.6
Tony Parker 26 13.7 0.52 16 Pts (7-12 FG, 2-2 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 5 Ast, 1 Stl, 4 TO, 2 PF 32% 53% 100.7 69.1 31.6
Cory Joseph 23 13.0 0.58 7 Pts (2-5 FG, 3-4 FT) 3 Reb (2 Off), 4 Ast, 4 Stl, 1 TO, 3 PF 16% 57% 114.4 100.9 13.5
Matt Bonner 13 9.1 0.68 6 Pts (2-2 FG, 2-2 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 8% 100% 128.8 87.5 41.3
Marco Belinelli 23 5.4 0.23 6 Pts (2-6 FG, 2-4 3PT ) 2 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 1 PF 13% 43% 89.1 114.2 -25.1
Tiago Splitter 23 4.2 0.19 7 Pts (3-6 FG, 1-2 FT) 6 Reb (0 Off), 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 3 TO, 2 PF 21% 34% 99.8 54.6 45.2
Boris Diaw 25 4.1 0.16 11 Pts (5-12 FG, 1-3 3PT ) 2 Reb (1 Off), 2 Ast, 3 TO, 2 PF 28% 36% 101.9 86.1 15.8
Reggie Williams 1 3.5 2.88 3 Pts (1-1 FG, 1-1 3PT ) , 53% 100% 212.8 200.0 12.8
Patty Mills 2 0.0 0.00 0 Pts , 0% 0% 103.1 200.0 -96.9
Danny Green 15 -0.3 -0.02 3 Pts (1-3 FG, 1-3 3PT, 0-1 FT) , 1 Ast, 1 TO, 2 PF 13% 28% 115.8 90.4 25.4
Aron Baynes 9 -0.9 -0.09 0 Pts 1 Reb (1 Off), 1 TO, 1 PF 5% 0% 86.0 184.0 -98.0
Manu Ginobili 18 -6.1 -0.34 2 Pts (1-4 FG, 0-2 3PT ) 1 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 5 TO, 2 PF 24% 14% 71.0 79.4 -8.4

Show Heat Players

Kawhi played another fantastic game, missing a double-double by one rebound, as he put up 22 and 9 with 3 assists, 2 blocks and 4 steals.  His defense is something else (Kawhi's marks, Dragic and Wade, shot 43% and 30% respectively), and his mid-range game has just exploded of late.   Add to that his ever-improving court vision and post play and his offensive game is nearing perfection. I suppose if there's anything I'd like to see more of from Kawhi, it would be leveraging his great mid-range game a bit more to blow by defenders forced to play him close.

Timmy threw in 12 and 11 with 3 blocks in just 24 minutes, second only to Kawhi in per-minute production.  What more can be said about Old Man Riverwalk?  

The most interesting move of the night was Pop going with Cory Joseph over Patty Mills as Mills has continued to struggle mightily, shooting just 32.9% from the field and 34.8% from deep in March.  Joseph earned his minutes, going just 2-5 from the field but putting up 4 assists and 4 steals to just one turnover.  We'll see if Pop continues to favor Cory over Mills or if Patty gets another chance to find his groove before the playoffs start.  Hopefully Patty comes around just in time for the playoffs, where they'll need his spacing and scoring.

Spurs Index: 98.5 (def.)

Factor Value Score
Passing (AST%) 56.8% 27.4
Shooting (eFG%) 51.4% 19.1
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%) 75.0% 19.6
Defense (DefRtg) 87.8 22.8
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested 43.0% 9.5
Total 98.5

Heat Spurs Index: 79.7 Show Breakdown

Great defense, pretty average numbers elsewhere.  The Heat only assisted on 34.4% of their field goal attempts.  It's hard to win games that way.  

The Spurs travel to Orlando to take on the hapless Magic tonight.  Hopefully the Silver and Black take care of business and continue to move up the standings - a win tonight is guaranteed to move the Spurs up to the 5th spot, as the Clippers take on the Blazers in Portland.  Go Spurs Go!

---

Definitions

eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions.

Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:

Factor Weight Average
Passing (AST%) 30% 62.1%
Shooting (eFG%) 20% 53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%) 20% 76.4%
Defense (DefRtg) 20% 100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested 10% 40.8%
The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.

Special thanks to: