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Spurs passed and shot their way past Bucks

The Spurs got uncontested looks on 55% of their field goals and predictably knocked them down at a high rate to take down a talented young Bucks team.

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Spurs 114, Bucks 103 - Mar 18, '15

The Spurs came back from their most disappointing and inexplicable loss of the season to put up big numbers on a Bucks squad that ranks 2nd in the league defensively.  They did it by getting open looks, hitting those looks, pounding the ball inside and getting to the line, an excellent balanced attack.

The Spurs ball control in this one was fantastic, with a 4.50 BCI on 27 assists, 9 steals and just 8 turnovers.  That's a great advantage to have, and it helped make up for the only substantial deficit the Spurs faced - rebounding.  The Bucks were +6.5 expected offensive rebounds, holding the Spurs to an anemic 3 offensive boards.

The Spurs outscored Milwaulkee 50-36 in the paint, and got fouled at a high rate, knocking down 30 of 38 free throws to gain yet another advantage over the Bucks.

It's great to see games like this where the Spurs win not by hitting 60% of their threes or generating 15 steals, but by doing most things well and a few things great.  A very balanced attack here makes you feel good about the team's overall trajectory, Knick's headscratcher notwithstanding.

Four Factors (def.)

Spurs Bucks
Shooting (eFG%) 53% 53%
Ball Handling (TO%) 9% 13%
Off Rebounding (OR%) 9% 26%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate) 50% 30%

Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)

Spurs Bucks
Pace (No. of Possessions) 95.1
Points Per Possession (PPP) 1.20 1.08
Points Per Shot (PPS) 1.50 1.29
2-PT FG% 53.6% 48.5%
3-PT FG% 40.0% 50.0%
FT% 78.9% 75.0%
True Shooting % 61.5% 56.9%
Spurs
Bucks
Offensive Rating 115.5 112.5
Defensive Rating 112.5 115.5
Net Rating 3.0 -3.0
Spurs Bucks
Passes / poss. 3.7 2.4
% of FGA uncontested 55.3% 46.3%
Points in the paint 50 36
Second chance points 8 10
Fast break points 9 7
Spurs Bucks
Assists 27 28
Steals 9 5
Turnovers 8 12
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
4.50 2.75
Spurs Bucks
Expected Offensive Rebounds 8.8 10.5
Offensive Rebounds 3 11
Difference -5.8 0.5

Spurs Shot Chart

Bucks Shot Chart

Spurs hit 6/7 from the left corner, and took 0 from the right.  Go figure.

Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)

Spurs

Player
Min
AdjGS
GS/Min
Line
Usage%
Floor%
OffRtg
DefRtg
NetRtg
Boris Diaw 31 23.0 0.75 18 Pts (5-8 FG, 8-8 FT) 6 Reb (0 Off), 5 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 PF 18% 83% 112.3 105.9 6.4
Tim Duncan 34 22.1 0.65 19 Pts (9-16 FG, 0-2 3PT, 1-2 FT) 5 Reb (1 Off), 7 Ast, 3 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF 26% 56% 118.4 114.0 4.4
Danny Green 39 19.2 0.50 20 Pts (7-16 FG, 2-4 3PT, 4-4 FT) 8 Reb (2 Off), 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 TO, 4 PF 22% 50% 120.7 113.9 6.8
Tony Parker 27 15.5 0.57 15 Pts (6-7 FG, 1-1 3PT, 2-2 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 2 PF 14% 90% 127.0 111.2 15.8
Kawhi Leonard 27 14.6 0.53 14 Pts (3-8 FG, 2-3 3PT, 6-8 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 1 Blk, 4 Stl, 1 TO, 4 PF 22% 51% 114.7 111.5 3.2
Tiago Splitter 19 6.5 0.35 6 Pts (2-2 FG, 2-5 FT) 4 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 2 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 TO, 2 PF 15% 49% 123.4 117.2 6.2
Marco Belinelli 24 6.1 0.25 11 Pts (2-9 FG, 2-6 3PT, 5-5 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 1 TO, 1 PF 24% 39% 110.5 114.3 -3.9
Patty Mills 16 3.8 0.24 3 Pts (1-3 FG, 1-3 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 4 Ast, 1 TO 11% 44% 122.1 97.5 24.6
Reggie Williams 7 2.9 0.41 4 Pts (2-3 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 PF 21% 62% 112.7 111.7 0.9
Jeff Ayres 6 1.6 0.25 4 Pts (1-1 FG, 2-4 FT) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 TO, 2 PF 30% 52% 103.8 102.2 1.6
Matt Bonner 3 1.1 0.33 0 Pts 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 0% 100% 112.6 114.3 -1.7
Kyle Anderson 1 -0.8 -0.66 0 Pts (0-1 FG, ) , 50% 0% 0.0 150.0 -150.0
Cory Joseph 5 -1.7 -0.35 0 Pts (0-2 FG, ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 PF 19% 0% 37.2 168.1 -130.9

Show Bucks Players

Boris Diaw was the man in this one, playing uber efficiently and sporting an 83% Floor percentage to go with a Boris-esque 18% Usage rate, meaning the Spurs scored on 83% of possessions Boris consumed, with Boris consuming 18% of the possessions he saw the floor on.  That's just about right for Bobo, let's hope he can continue to shine in Manu's absence and as the playoffs approach.

Great performances as well from Duncan, Green, Parker and Leonard, all of whom pitched in over 0.5 AdjGS points per minute played.

One last odd stat to point out was Tony Parker's 14% Usage Rate and 90% Floor percentage.  That's very unusual for a guy who tends to have Usage Rates closer to 30%, with naturally lower Floor percentages as well.  Can't complain about a guy who rocks a 90% Floor percentage though, can you?  I'll take either of those Tony's.

Spurs Index: 99.9 (def.)

Factor Value Score
Passing (AST%) 71.1% 34.3
Shooting (eFG%) 52.6% 19.6
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%) 73.8% 19.3
Defense (DefRtg) 112.5 17.8
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested 46.3% 8.8
Total 99.9

Bucks Spurs Index: 101.5 Show Breakdown

Spurs just under the 100 mark on the spurs Index, mostly due to questionable defense as the Bucks got plenty of offense, with 46.3% of their looks going uncontested.  Hopefully the good guys can get those defensive numbers down a bit as they take on the Boston Celtics next.  Go Spurs Go!

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Definitions

eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions.

Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:

Factor Weight Average
Passing (AST%) 30% 62.1%
Shooting (eFG%) 20% 53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%) 20% 76.4%
Defense (DefRtg) 20% 100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested 10% 40.8%
The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.

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