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Spurs 110, Magic 103 - Feb 4, '15
No matter the opponent, no matter how well a specific player performs, the Spurs have a hard time stringing together enough good possessions to take control of the score against teams that put up a fight lately. Not even great nights from Duncan, Ginobili and Leonard were enough to prevent this one from staying close throughout. Of course there are occasions in which everything clicks -- the victory over the Blazers in Jan. 16 comes to mind -- but recently games like Wednesday's against the Magic seem to be the norm. And that's fine! There's still time to get better. For now, I'm sure the team will gladly take the wins, however they may come.
Four Factors (def.)
Spurs
Magic
Shooting (eFG%)
55%
56%
Ball Handling (TO%)
12%
13%
Off Rebounding (OR%)
15%
13%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate)
17%
17%
The Spurs would typically thrive on a low turnover, low offensive rebounding game because of their defense but they couldn't contain Orlando's main scorers on Wednesday. Fortunately, the Magic are a bad enough team that it didn't matter.
Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)
Spurs
Magic
Pace (No. of Possessions)
96.7
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.14
1.07
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.31
1.23
2-PT FG%
57.7%
50.8%
3-PT FG%
43.8%
47.6%
FT%
57.1%
64.3%
True Shooting %
61.0%
57.1%
Spurs
Magic
Offensive Rating
115.6
104.9
Defensive Rating
104.9
115.6
Net Rating
10.7
-10.7
Spurs
Magic
Passes / poss.
3.8
2.8
% of FGA uncontested
48.8%
39.3%
Points in the paint
40
46
Second chance points
9
7
Fast break points
7
16
Spurs
Magic
Assists
32
27
Steals
7
6
Turnovers
11
12
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
3.55
2.75
Spurs
Magic
Expected Offensive Rebounds
10.0
10.0
Offensive Rebounds
6
5
Difference
-4.0
-5.0
Let's talk about the glorious JV, the recently fired coach of the Magic, Jacque Vaughn. With the players the Magic has, a 96.6 pace is way too slow. After playing at one of the league's slowest paces in December, Vaughn tried to get his guys to speed up. It didn't produce results but at least gave the Magic an identity to build on. Then they reverted back to old habits and now Vaughn is gone. He never really had a chance with the roster his GM assembled but the JV couldn't actually put his imprint on the team and now Pop's coaching tree has a branch that has fallen unceremoniously.
With that out of the way, please feast your eyes on those free throw percentages. Neither team got to the line enough for it to matter (a combined 28 free throws) but Elfrid Payton (2-6), Manu Ginobili (0-2) and Tim Duncan (4-8) better work on those freebies.
The Spurs not only averaged more passes per possession but also controlled the BCI index thanks to their 32 assists, the sixth time in the season in which they log over 30 assists. Interesting fact: The Spurs have lost two of those games, the first against the Grizzlies in triple overtime and the other against the Thunder. Last season they won all 16 games in which they averaged over 30 assists.
Spurs Shot Chart
Magic Shot Chart
The Spurs made a killing from the corners and inside while the Magic couldn't buy a bucket from the left baseline.
Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)
Spurs
Kawhi Leonard
38
23.9
0.64
18 Pts (7-9 FG, 4-4 FT) 5 Reb (0 Off), 5 Ast, 1 Blk, 4 Stl, 3 TO
17%
68%
104.9
107.2
-2.3
Tim Duncan
34
23.1
0.69
26 Pts (11-17 FG, 4-8 FT) 10 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 3 PF
30%
59%
101.0
120.7
-19.6
Manu Ginobili
29
16.8
0.58
13 Pts (5-9 FG, 3-5 3PT, 0-2 FT) 6 Reb (0 Off), 10 Ast, 1 TO, 2 PF
18%
60%
140.4
87.5
52.9
Marco Belinelli
17
9.5
0.55
11 Pts (4-6 FG, 3-4 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 1 TO
20%
55%
137.3
88.2
49.1
Patty Mills
18
7.9
0.43
9 Pts (3-8 FG, 3-8 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 TO
25%
39%
141.1
82.6
58.4
Tony Parker
30
7.4
0.25
15 Pts (6-15 FG, 3-5 3PT ) , 3 Ast, 2 TO, 1 PF
26%
37%
101.9
116.7
-14.8
Boris Diaw
19
6.4
0.33
4 Pts (2-3 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 2 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 PF
7%
75%
95.9
128.3
-32.5
Danny Green
26
5.4
0.21
6 Pts (2-9 FG, 2-9 3PT ) 5 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF
19%
27%
102.7
111.6
-8.9
Aron Baynes
14
5.0
0.34
4 Pts (2-3 FG, ) 9 Reb (3 Off), 1 TO, 3 PF
14%
44%
154.6
63.2
91.3
Cory Joseph
16
4.5
0.29
4 Pts (2-5 FG, ) 2 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast,
15%
51%
123.1
106.9
16.2
Show Magic Players
Kawhi has become a fixture at the top of the Adjusted Game Score list. Big Fun was actually more productive per minute and extremely consistent, scoring six, seven, seven and six in each quarter. Still, Leonard deserves player of the game because 18 points in 9 shots, five rebounds, four assists and four steals is just a ridiculous line. Manu Ginobili had a really great game as well, logging 10 assists to just one turnover. Marco Belinelli also had a solid night in his return.
For the Magic, Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic broke away from the pack thanks to monster nights against Boris Diaw and Tim Duncan. Vucevic is not a good defender but few centers are as consistently productive. Harris will become a restricted free agent and will get seriously paid. In the right team his lack of an ideal position won't matter but if he's inked by the wrong franchise, he could be one of those signings that are later regretted. I'm not sure where the Magic fall on that spectrum.
Spurs Index: 107.9 (def.)
Factor
Value
Score
Passing (AST%)
72.7%
35.1
Shooting (eFG%)
54.8%
20.4
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)
87.5%
22.9
Defense (DefRtg)
104.9
19.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested
39.3%
10.4
Total
107.9
Magic Spurs Index: 97.8 Show Breakdown
Few offensive rebounds allowed? Check. A lot of assists? Check. That's enough to make this game do well on the Spurs Index but the defense needs to improve.
--- Definitions eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%). AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket. Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome. Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved. Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions. Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions. Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:
The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.
Factor
Weight
Average
Passing (AST%)
30%
62.1%
Shooting (eFG%)
20%
53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)
20%
76.4%
Defense (DefRtg)
20%
100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested
10%
40.8%
Special thanks to:
- Bill Connelly over at our sister blog Rock M Nation, for the idea for Study Hall (and many of the stats and definitions)
- Nick Bottomley, whose nba stats API project made it possible to automate the statistical breakdowns for every game