By the Numbers: Boban crushes Timberwolves

The Duncan-less Spurs emerged victorious in the AT&T center thanks in large part to Boban Marjanovic's 17 points on 7-7 shooting.

By BrettJones@comradebernout Dec 29, 2015, 12:00pm CST

Spurs 101, Timberwolves 95 - Dec 28, '15

A great effort from a Timberwolves squad trying to capitalize on Tim Duncan's continued absence was all for naught as the Boban-led Spurs second unit came from behind in the third quarter to establish a lead the Spurs would not relinquish despite Boban's sitting to start the 4th. Here are some takeaways:

San Antonio shot an uber-efficient 59% from inside the arc, erasing what could have been a nice edge for the Wolves, who shot a merely good 50.7% from 2. The Spurs shot a terrible 5/17 from deep, but it once again didn't matter as Minnesota shot an even worse 3/11. And so we have our big edge of the game: Effective Field Goal Percentage: Spurs, 55%, Timberwolves 49%.
There was some pretty sloppy play at times in this one, and the Spurs actually gave up a small advantage in ballhandling, with a 3% lower Turnover Rate for Minnesota in this one. Rebounding was a push, and Free Throw shooting was a disaster for the Wolves, so in the end the more efficient Spurs won out.
Boban Marjanovic was clearly out to avenge his countryman after Popovich was ejected in the first half. He scored 9 points in the 3rd quarter alone to complete his 17 point demolition of the Timberwolves, who were powerless to stop him. Boban's 19.8 AdjGS in a mere 15 minutes of play worked the AT&T Center crowd into an outright frenzy. I know I'm not alone in hoping this is only the beginning and we continue to see Boban play more meaningful roles in close games. Part of me hopes Timmy pretends to still have soreness in his knee come Wednesday...
Kawhi led the Spurs once again in overall contributions, with a 17/11/3/1 line which was merely good for him these days. He hit some incredibly difficult shots and came up with a huge steal late in the game. (He tallied his 17 points on just 9 shots.)
Patty and Manu had excellent outings as well, pitching in a combined 24 points, 5 boards and 8 assists as they powered the second unit.
Tony's shot was off, but he made his mark with 7 assists, 4 boards and a block. He had some really sick moves and continues to look far healthier than we've seen in recent seasons.
The Spurs move to 27-6 on the year and host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday to wrap up the 2015 calendar year. All they have to do is not get blown out in order to claim the highest Net Rating for a single month since the NBA started keeping track in 1996. Go Spurs Go!

Four Factors (def.)

	Spurs	Timberwolves
Shooting (eFG%)	55%	49%
Ball Handling (TO%)	18%	15%
Off Rebounding (OR%)	16%	16%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate)	39%	29%

Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)

	Spurs	Timberwolves
Pace (No. of Possessions)	98.9
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.02	0.96
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.40	1.16
2-PT FG%	58.2%	50.7%
3-PT FG%	29.4%	27.3%
FT%	78.6%	58.3%
True Shooting %	59.9%	51.3%

	Spurs	Timberwolves
Offensive Rating	104.9	93.5
Defensive Rating	93.5	104.9
Net Rating	11.3	-11.3

	Spurs	Timberwolves
Passes / poss.	3.0	2.6
% of FGA uncontested	36.1%	41.5%
Points in the paint	48	46
Second chance points	12	7
Fast break points	11	10

	Spurs	Timberwolves
Assists	25	25
Steals	5	12
Turnovers	16	15
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.88	2.47

	Spurs	Timberwolves
Expected Offensive Rebounds	7.8	9.3
Offensive Rebounds	5	6
Difference	-2.8	-3.3

Spurs Shot Chart

Timberwolves Shot Chart

Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)

Spurs

Player	Min	AdjGS	GS/Min	Line	Usage%	Floor%	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
Kawhi Leonard	37	21.5	0.57	17 Pts (5-9 FG, 1-1 3PT, 6-7 FT) 11 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 5 PF	15%	71%	98.0	89.4	8.6
Boban Marjanovic	15	19.8	1.36	17 Pts (7-7 FG, 3-4 FT) 4 Reb (2 Off), 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 TO, 2 PF	33%	76%	125.3	71.9	53.4
Patty Mills	19	13.5	0.70	11 Pts (4-7 FG, 1-4 3PT, 2-2 FT) , 4 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 TO	20%	63%	128.3	74.0	54.4
Manu Ginobili	24	12.3	0.51	13 Pts (5-11 FG, 3-6 3PT ) 5 Reb (1 Off), 4 Ast, 2 TO, 1 PF	23%	43%	109.3	73.9	35.4
Tony Parker	31	12.0	0.39	12 Pts (2-9 FG, 0-2 3PT, 8-12 FT) 4 Reb (0 Off), 7 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 TO, 1 PF	26%	48%	88.6	103.9	-15.3
David West	27	8.0	0.30	11 Pts (4-8 FG, 3-3 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 1 TO, 1 PF	20%	52%	97.7	102.3	-4.7
Danny Green	21	5.5	0.26	6 Pts (3-7 FG, 0-4 3PT ) , 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 1 PF	17%	44%	94.2	113.4	-19.2
Boris Diaw	26	5.3	0.21	4 Pts (2-2 FG, ) 2 Reb (1 Off), 4 Ast, 1 Blk, 3 TO, 2 PF	9%	50%	111.9	92.1	19.8
Kyle Anderson	10	4.8	0.46	4 Pts (2-2 FG, ) 2 Reb (0 Off), 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 TO	21%	43%	117.8	91.5	26.3
LaMarcus Aldridge	27	-0.6	-0.02	6 Pts (3-8 FG, ) 6 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 3 TO, 5 PF	20%	27%	99.1	104.0	-4.8
Jonathon Simmons	3	-0.9	-0.32	0 Pts (0-2 FG, ) , 1 Ast,	33%	18%	140.0	140.0	0.0

Show Timberwolves Players

Player	Min	AdjGS	GS/Min	Line	Usage%	Floor%	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
Ricky Rubio	37	18.2	0.50	7 Pts (2-9 FG, 0-2 3PT, 3-4 FT) 3 Reb (0 Off), 14 Ast, 4 Stl, 1 TO, 5 PF	14%	54%	91.6	97.3	-5.7
Karl-Anthony Towns	31	12.8	0.41	10 Pts (4-7 FG, 2-3 FT) 12 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 5 PF	13%	54%	94.7	94.0	0.7
Tayshaun Prince	30	12.2	0.41	10 Pts (5-6 FG, ) 2 Reb (0 Off), 2 Blk, 3 PF	9%	82%	94.6	95.8	-1.2
Kevin Garnett	16	10.8	0.69	10 Pts (5-7 FG, ) 3 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 1 TO, 2 PF	25%	63%	111.0	86.3	24.7
Andrew Wiggins	37	10.4	0.28	18 Pts (8-18 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2-8 FT) 6 Reb (2 Off), 1 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 TO, 3 PF	28%	35%	89.4	98.1	-8.7
Zach LaVine	25	10.2	0.41	15 Pts (5-14 FG, 0-4 3PT, 5-5 FT) , 2 Ast, 1 TO, 1 PF	30%	46%	87.5	112.6	-25.1
Adreian Payne	14	9.2	0.64	7 Pts (3-6 FG, 1-2 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 2 Blk, 2 Stl, 3 PF	19%	47%	92.8	120.2	-27.3
Shabazz Muhammad	12	9.1	0.79	8 Pts (3-4 FG, 2-2 3PT ) ,	17%	73%	105.4	118.8	-13.4
Gorgui Dieng	23	3.1	0.14	8 Pts (3-9 FG, 2-4 FT) 5 Reb (3 Off), 2 Ast, 3 Stl, 5 TO, 5 PF	33%	27%	90.1	125.0	-34.9
Nemanja Bjelica	5	1.0	0.22	0 Pts , 1 Ast,	0%	100%	81.0	120.8	-39.8
Tyus Jones	11	-2.0	-0.17	2 Pts (1-2 FG, ) , 2 Ast, 3 TO, 2 PF	23%	29%	101.2	129.9	-28.8

Spurs Index: 106.3 (def.)

Factor	Value	Score
Passing (AST%)	67.6%	32.7
Shooting (eFG%)	54.9%	20.4
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)	83.8%	21.9
Defense (DefRtg)	93.5	21.4
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested	41.5%	9.8
Total		106.3

Timberwolves Spurs Index: 101.7 Show Breakdown

Confused? Show Advanced Stats Glossary

eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions.

Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:

Factor	Weight	Average
Passing (AST%)	30%	62.1%
Shooting (eFG%)	20%	53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)	20%	76.4%
Defense (DefRtg)	20%	100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested	10%	40.8%

The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.

Special thanks to:

Bill Connelly over at our sister blog Rock M Nation, for the idea for Study Hall (and many of the stats and definitions)
Nick Bottomley, whose nba stats API project made it possible to automate the statistical breakdowns for every game