Study Hall: Kawhi Leonard punishes Nuggets

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The Spurs started this one ice cold, and outside of Parker and Leonard, never found a lasting offensive rhythm. But, true to this season's form, they played suffocating defense and won by 11 despite scoring just 91 points.

By BrettJones@comradebernout Nov 28, 2015, 11:22am CST

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Spurs 91, Nuggets 80 - Nov 27, '15

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The Duncan- and Ginobili-less Spurs were able to keep the W train rolling against an overmatched Nuggets team which was missing Kenneth Faried. It wasn't pretty, was sloppy at times, and was played at a downright glacial pace of 94 possessions (5 below league average), but the Spurs strangled the life out of the Nuggets defensively and got huge contributions from Leonard and Parker to pull out the win.

The most exciting aspect of the early part of the game (for me at least) was the insertion of Boban Marjanovic into the starting lineup. He mostly did not disappoint, pitching in two points, 4 boards and an assist in his 6 minutes of play, the only Spur outside of Parker and Leonard to contribute more over half an AjdGS point per minute of play. The Nuggets weren't able to really exploit him off the PnR, and he showed off his passing ability with this lovely dime to LA:

Despite Boban's solid play, or perhaps because of their Giant Ball lineup, the Spurs struggled early on offense, and after about 5 minutes Popovich went to smaller, Boban-less lineups with Diaw and West which the Spurs stuck with for the rest of the game. The Spurs continued to struggle in the second quarter, falling behind by 11.

At that point, with the offense looking disjointed and failing to generate easy looks, Kawhi and Tony took over, scoring 27 straight combined points for the Spurs in a run that spanned halftime and gave the Spurs a lead they would not relinquish.

While the Spurs' classic "Beautiful Game" may produce a higher ceiling than star-centric "hero ball", it's great to have some serious star power to fall back on when things get shaky. [Editor's note: At the very least, it allows Pop to schedule rest days for the Big Three more often. -jrw] The Spurs look like they are starting to be able to count on Kawhi Leonard for that kind of effort on a nightly basis, and with Aldridge and a healthy Parker ready to pitch in with big games, their offensive floor looks to be very, very high.

Kawhi's play was sublime, as he scored efficiently with 25 points on just 18 shots and filled up the stat sheet in every category with 7 boards, 6 assists, 5 blocks and 4 steals. These kinds of stat lines are becoming routine as Kawhi continues his ascent into the basketball heavens. His 27.06 PER is good for 6th in the league this year, .03 ahead of LeBron James. Kingslayer, indeed!

Tony Parker's continued excellent play has been a huge boon for a team that is still struggling to find its offensive rhythm. With the holiday season now upon us, all this Spurs fan wants for Christmas is continued good health for TP. And Manu. If those two can just stay healthy (they seem to be the most fragile players on the roster this season), I like the Spurs' chances of reaching 60+ wins.

Four Factors (def.)

	Spurs	Nuggets
Shooting (eFG%)	53%	45%
Ball Handling (TO%)	20%	19%
Off Rebounding (OR%)	15%	18%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate)	19%	17%

Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)

	Spurs	Nuggets
Pace (No. of Possessions)	93.9
Points Per Possession (PPP)	0.97	0.85
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.21	1.04
2-PT FG%	52.8%	42.1%
3-PT FG%	36.4%	35.0%
FT%	78.6%	84.6%
True Shooting %	56.1%	48.4%

	Spurs	Nuggets
Offensive Rating	95.6	86.3
Defensive Rating	86.3	95.6
Net Rating	9.3	-9.3

	Spurs	Nuggets
Passes / poss.	3.4	2.8
% of FGA uncontested	44.0%	49.4%
Points in the paint	28	40
Second chance points	7	9
Fast break points	8	13

	Spurs	Nuggets
Assists	22	17
Steals	11	8
Turnovers	18	18
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.83	1.39

	Spurs	Nuggets
Expected Offensive Rebounds	8.5	11.3
Offensive Rebounds	5	8
Difference	-3.5	-3.3

Spurs Shot Chart

Nuggets Shot Chart

Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)

Spurs

Player	Min	AdjGS	GS/Min	Line	Usage%	Floor%	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
Kawhi Leonard	32	35.8	1.12	25 Pts (11-18 FG, 2-4 3PT, 1-1 FT) 7 Reb (1 Off), 6 Ast, 5 Blk, 4 Stl, 2 TO, 1 PF	30%	60%	103.9	76.5	27.4
Tony Parker	25	14.3	0.58	13 Pts (6-7 FG, 1-1 3PT, 0-2 FT) 1 Reb (0 Off), 5 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 TO, 2 PF	19%	65%	101.9	89.7	12.3
Jonathon Simmons	27	6.9	0.26	12 Pts (4-8 FG, 1-4 3PT, 3-3 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 2 Stl, 5 TO, 2 PF	26%	38%	105.5	88.3	17.2
Patty Mills	21	6.4	0.30	9 Pts (4-7 FG, 1-4 3PT ) 3 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 TO, 3 PF	19%	43%	104.5	85.9	18.7
Danny Green	27	5.1	0.19	9 Pts (3-9 FG, 3-6 3PT ) 4 Reb (0 Off), 1 Stl, 2 TO	20%	24%	88.5	95.4	-6.8
Kyle Anderson	29	5.0	0.17	5 Pts (1-3 FG, 3-4 FT) 4 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast, 1 TO, 3 PF	10%	55%	102.4	71.9	30.5
Boris Diaw	23	5.0	0.22	6 Pts (3-5 FG, ) 5 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 1 TO, 4 PF	12%	53%	101.0	84.1	16.9
LaMarcus Aldridge	18	4.9	0.26	8 Pts (4-11 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 4 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 TO	31%	33%	84.8	89.5	-4.7
Boban Marjanovic	6	4.9	0.78	2 Pts ( 2-2 FT) 4 Reb (2 Off), 1 Ast, 2 PF	7%	117%	60.7	123.9	-63.1
David West	19	2.6	0.14	2 Pts (0-4 FG, 2-2 FT) 6 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO	17%	21%	102.3	89.5	12.8
Matt Bonner	4	1.6	0.46	0 Pts 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 Stl,	0%	0%	0.0	100.0	-100.0
Ray McCallum	6	-0.5	-0.08	0 Pts (0-2 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast,	18%	18%	54.5	90.0	-35.5
Rasual Butler	4	-0.9	-0.25	0 Pts (0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT ) ,	17%	0%	0.0	100.0	-100.0

Show Nuggets Players

Player	Min	AdjGS	GS/Min	Line	Usage%	Floor%	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
Danilo Gallinari	35	20.6	0.59	16 Pts (5-15 FG, 2-4 3PT, 4-4 FT) 10 Reb (1 Off), 2 Ast,	22%	46%	79.6	100.7	-21.1
Will Barton	29	14.3	0.48	12 Pts (5-10 FG, 1-3 3PT, 1-2 FT) 9 Reb (2 Off), 2 Ast, 2 Stl, 5 TO	25%	36%	79.8	95.9	-16.1
JJ Hickson	17	11.6	0.70	9 Pts (3-6 FG, 3-4 FT) 1 Reb (1 Off), 2 Blk, 2 PF	21%	60%	85.9	110.5	-24.6
Randy Foye	22	11.4	0.53	6 Pts (3-4 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO	13%	56%	113.7	84.2	29.6
Jameer Nelson	22	10.9	0.50	12 Pts (5-10 FG, 2-4 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 1 TO, 3 PF	23%	49%	93.3	95.8	-2.6
Gary Harris	25	6.7	0.27	5 Pts (2-4 FG, 1-3 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 TO, 1 PF	11%	43%	71.5	100.5	-29.0
Mike Miller	20	1.7	0.08	3 Pts (1-3 FG, 1-3 3PT ) 3 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 TO, 4 PF	14%	25%	96.1	102.5	-6.4
Nikola Jokic	12	1.3	0.11	6 Pts (3-4 FG, ) 2 Reb (1 Off), 3 TO, 4 PF	32%	38%	85.5	57.5	28.0
Darrell Arthur	25	1.2	0.05	2 Pts (1-6 FG, ) 5 Reb (2 Off), 1 Stl, 2 PF	12%	16%	83.4	95.8	-12.4
Emmanuel Mudiay	29	1.0	0.03	9 Pts (3-14 FG, 0-1 3PT, 3-3 FT) 3 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 2 TO, 3 PF	29%	32%	81.4	103.5	-22.1
Kostas Papanikolaou	4	-0.7	-0.19	0 Pts (0-1 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off),	17%	0%	100.0	0.0	100.0

Spurs Index: 102.4 (def.)

Factor	Value	Score
Passing (AST%)	61.1%	29.5
Shooting (eFG%)	53.3%	19.9
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)	82.2%	21.5
Defense (DefRtg)	86.3	23.2
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested	49.4%	8.3
Total		102.4

Nuggets Spurs Index: 95.7 Show Breakdown

Confused? Show Advanced Stats Glossary

eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions.

Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:

Factor	Weight	Average
Passing (AST%)	30%	62.1%
Shooting (eFG%)	20%	53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)	20%	76.4%
Defense (DefRtg)	20%	100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested	10%	40.8%

The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.

Special thanks to:

Bill Connelly over at our sister blog Rock M Nation, for the idea for Study Hall (and many of the stats and definitions)
Nick Bottomley, whose nba stats API project made it possible to automate the statistical breakdowns for every game

Study Hall: Kawhi Leonard punishes Nuggets

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Spurs 91, Nuggets 80 - Nov 27, '15

Must Reads

Support coach with a "Pop for President" T-shirt

J.R. Wilco

Must Reads

Four Factors (def.)

Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)

Spurs Shot Chart

Nuggets Shot Chart

Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)

Spurs

Show Nuggets Players

Spurs Index: 102.4 (def.)

Nuggets Spurs Index: 95.7 Show Breakdown

Confused? Show Advanced Stats Glossary

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