By the Numbers: Spurs fizzle in New Orleans

New, comments

The Spurs struggled against a full-strength New Orleans squad which fought hard and earned just their second win of the season. The shots weren't falling for San Antonio, and the Spurs couldn't make up for it in any other facet of the game, as their 6 game winning streak came to an end.

By BrettJones@comradebernout Nov 21, 2015, 10:31am CST

/ new

Spurs 90, Pelicans 104 - Nov 20, '15

The Spurs weren't full strength, as Manu Ginobili sat out his second straight and LaMarcus Aldridge tweaked his ankle, costing the Spurs an effective option early on. LMA would return and lead the Spurs in AdjGS, but the Spurs were never able to really find both their offensive rhythm and slow down New Orleans. Some observations:

The Spurs are still incredibly weak to quick opposing point guards. They don't seem to have anyone capable of stopping players like Ish Smith (17 points and 13 assists)from slicing and dicing their way to layups and assists. I feel anxious ever time the Spurs play a team with that kind of point guard. Popovich even turned to Ray McCallum late in the game in a last-ditch effort to stem the hemorrhaging. Smith promptly tossed Anthony Davis a vicious alley-oop.
There was a stretch at the end of the 3rd quarter into the early 4th in which the Spurs scored 19 points in just four minutes and cut the lead to just 1. Unfortunately the Spurs struggled to contain the Pelicans during their run, and when the Spurs cooled off the Pelicans continued to get good looks and pulled away for good. A couple of defensive stops during that run could've spelled a different outcome. Missed opportunities.
The Spurs were hot from deep once more, going 9/17 - one more three in five fewer attempts than their NO counterparts. Seventeen looks is not very many though, and this is even more discouraging because the Spurs clearly benefitted from some good fortune, hitting so many.
From shorter range, the Spurs were downright awful, going 37.3% as a team from two. That's not going to win you very many games, and as I've said before, it's probably a pretty good sign you didn't play very well offensively.
The Spurs controlled the ball well, with just 8 turnovers, but they failed to take the ball away to a significant degree, and lost the battle of the boards as their passive play led to a measly 5 offensive rebounds. End result: just 10 combined second chance and fast break points.
No one had particularly atrocious game, but there just weren't enough solid, efficient contributors for the Spurs to keep pace in this one. Aldridge and Leonard both looked like All Stars, but they were they only meaningful contributors on offense, as Parker was inefficient, Danny struggled and Duncan played just 19 minutes as Popovich presumably rests him for Saturday's matchup against the Grizzlies.

Four Factors (def.)

	Spurs	Pelicans
Shooting (eFG%)	46%	50%
Ball Handling (TO%)	9%	10%
Off Rebounding (OR%)	10%	16%
Shooting FTs (FT Rate)	19%	19%

Team Stats (Definitions at bottom of post)

	Spurs	Pelicans
Pace (No. of Possessions)	96.3
Points Per Possession (PPP)	0.93	1.08
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.07	1.18
2-PT FG%	37.3%	48.5%
3-PT FG%	52.9%	36.4%
FT%	81.3%	94.1%
True Shooting %	49.4%	54.5%

	Spurs	Pelicans
Offensive Rating	95.7	105.6
Defensive Rating	105.6	95.7
Net Rating	-9.9	9.9

	Spurs	Pelicans
Passes / poss.	3.2	2.9
% of FGA uncontested	41.7%	46.6%
Points in the paint	28	46
Second chance points	4	6
Fast break points	6	7

	Spurs	Pelicans
Assists	22	26
Steals	5	3
Turnovers	8	9
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	3.38	3.22

	Spurs	Pelicans
Expected Offensive Rebounds	12.8	11.3
Offensive Rebounds	5	7
Difference	-7.8	-4.3

Spurs Shot Chart

Pelicans Shot Chart

Players (Definitions at bottom of post, columns sortable)

Spurs

Player	Min	AdjGS	GS/Min	Line	Usage%	Floor%	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
LaMarcus Aldridge	32	21.2	0.66	20 Pts (8-18 FG, 0-1 3PT, 4-4 FT) 11 Reb (3 Off), 2 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 PF	30%	51%	94.6	100.4	-5.7
Kawhi Leonard	37	19.4	0.53	22 Pts (9-20 FG, 3-5 3PT, 1-2 FT) 5 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 PF	27%	45%	92.7	96.2	-3.5
Tony Parker	32	11.6	0.37	10 Pts (3-10 FG, 4-4 FT) 5 Reb (0 Off), 5 Ast, 1 Stl, 3 PF	18%	51%	114.5	100.5	13.9
Patty Mills	22	10.3	0.47	11 Pts (4-9 FG, 3-5 3PT ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 Stl, 3 TO, 1 PF	26%	36%	96.3	129.9	-33.6
Boris Diaw	25	8.7	0.35	5 Pts (2-3 FG, 1-1 3PT ) 4 Reb (1 Off), 4 Ast, 1 TO, 1 PF	8%	62%	104.8	121.3	-16.5
Tim Duncan	19	6.3	0.33	6 Pts (2-6 FG, 2-2 FT) , 2 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 Stl, 2 PF	17%	49%	98.6	76.3	22.3
David West	11	6.3	0.57	5 Pts (2-2 FG, 1-2 FT) 2 Reb (1 Off), 1 Blk, 2 PF	12%	87%	105.2	130.5	-25.3
Danny Green	33	5.2	0.16	6 Pts (2-8 FG, 2-4 3PT ) 8 Reb (0 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 TO, 1 PF	15%	27%	106.1	115.1	-9.0
Kyle Anderson	7	3.4	0.46	1 Pts (0-1 FG, 1-2 FT) 2 Reb (0 Off), 1 Ast, 2 Blk,	14%	42%	77.6	84.6	-7.0
Boban Marjanovic	3	0.4	0.13	2 Pts (1-1 FG, ) , 1 TO, 1 PF	40%	43%	40.0	80.0	-40.0
Jonathon Simmons	3	-0.5	-0.17	0 Pts (0-1 FG, ) 1 Reb (0 Off),	20%	0%	40.0	80.0	-40.0
Ray McCallum	7	-0.6	-0.10	0 Pts (0-1 FG, ) 2 Reb (0 Off), 1 PF	8%	0%	50.0	78.7	-28.7
Rasual Butler	10	-1.5	-0.15	2 Pts (1-4 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 2 Reb (0 Off), 1 TO, 1 PF	24%	17%	45.0	112.7	-67.7

Show Pelicans Players

Player	Min	AdjGS	GS/Min	Line	Usage%	Floor%	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
Ryan Anderson	33	25.4	0.76	30 Pts (12-21 FG, 6-11 3PT ) 7 Reb (1 Off), 2 TO	32%	48%	117.7	96.3	21.4
Ish Smith	31	24.6	0.80	17 Pts (7-10 FG, 1-2 3PT, 2-2 FT) 4 Reb (0 Off), 13 Ast, 2 TO, 3 PF	19%	73%	112.8	97.5	15.3
Anthony Davis	39	19.0	0.49	20 Pts (9-23 FG, 0-1 3PT, 2-2 FT) 18 Reb (2 Off), 3 Ast, 2 Blk, 1 TO, 2 PF	30%	42%	100.1	84.8	15.2
Eric Gordon	35	10.6	0.30	11 Pts (3-9 FG, 1-3 3PT, 4-4 FT) 1 Reb (0 Off), 2 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 TO	15%	47%	99.8	93.8	6.0
Jrue Holiday	24	8.8	0.37	9 Pts (3-10 FG, 0-2 3PT, 3-3 FT) 3 Reb (0 Off), 7 Ast, 1 Blk, 1 TO, 4 PF	25%	50%	99.6	87.6	12.0
Alexis Ajinca	12	7.0	0.61	8 Pts (2-4 FG, 4-4 FT) 3 Reb (0 Off), 3 PF	20%	73%	116.8	116.5	0.3
Alonzo Gee	18	4.8	0.27	4 Pts (2-2 FG, ) 1 Reb (0 Off), 1 Stl, 2 PF	5%	100%	90.6	93.1	-2.5
Dante Cunningham	24	1.9	0.08	4 Pts (2-6 FG, 0-2 3PT ) 5 Reb (2 Off), 1 TO, 1 PF	13%	26%	112.1	105.2	6.9
Omer Asik	12	1.6	0.14	1 Pts ( 1-2 FT) 7 Reb (1 Off), 1 TO, 2 PF	7%	28%	79.0	105.8	-26.8
Toney Douglas	12	0.2	0.02	0 Pts (0-3 FG, 0-1 3PT ) 4 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast,	11%	13%	124.2	96.8	27.4

Spurs Index: 98.1 (def.)

Factor	Value	Score
Passing (AST%)	64.7%	31.3
Shooting (eFG%)	45.8%	17.1
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)	84.4%	22.1
Defense (DefRtg)	105.6	19.0
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested	46.6%	8.8
Total		98.1

Pelicans Spurs Index: 104.3 Show Breakdown

Confused? Show Advanced Stats Glossary

eFG%: Effective Field Goal percentage. (via) Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Offensive Rating (offRtg): Points per 100 possessions.

Defensive Rating (defRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions.

Spurs Index: The Spurs Index © is a just-for-fun formula that attempts to quantify just how "Spursy" a particular game is, based off averages for the 2013-2014 regular season. A perfectly average game would have a Spurs Index of 100. The formula consists of four factors which the Spurs are known for and lead or nearly lead the league in: Shooting (effective Field Goal %), Passing (Assist percentage), Defensive Rebounding Rate, and Defensive Rating. These metrics are weighted as follows:

Factor	Weight	Average
Passing (AST%)	30%	62.1%
Shooting (eFG%)	20%	53.7%
Defensive Rebounding (DReb%)	20%	76.4%
Defense (DefRtg)	20%	100.1
Opponent % of FGA Uncontested	10%	40.8%

The values for each metric are determined based on how a particular game's performance compares to the Spurs 2013-2014 regular season average for that metric. For instance, the average effective Field Goal percentage for 2013-2014 was 53.7%. So if the Spurs shot 60% in a given game, the score for eFG% would be calculated by: (0.6 / 0.537) * 20, which would yield a "score" for that factor of 22.3.

Special thanks to:

Bill Connelly over at our sister blog Rock M Nation, for the idea for Study Hall (and many of the stats and definitions)
Nick Bottomley, whose nba stats API project made it possible to automate the statistical breakdowns for every game