FanPost

UPDATED : Race for the Playoffs - Remaining Schedules and Playoff Seeding


This is an update to my original post from March 8th where I tried to take a look ahead at our schedule and compare it to the other teams in the playoff race. It's been a few weeks and the majority of the teams have played around 7 games. I removed New Orleans from the post (as they appear out of the race) and included Phoenix, who is not that far ahead of these teams in the standings. This includes tonight's loss against the Hawks, in which we couldn't grab a rebound and blew another winnable game.

Below is a quick reminder of how I figured the remaining games to be wins, losses, and swing games. For each team I have included the following: total number of games remaining, the amount of home/away games, home/away records. From there, I broke the games down into 3 categories: games the team should win (against non-playoff teams), games the team should lose (against the current top 4 seeds in each conference), and most importantly, games that are up in the air - or swing games (against other teams fighting for the playoffs). **(For the breakdown of the categories, I did not take into consideration if the game was home or away. I assumed that a game against the Nets would be a win on the road or at home, just as much as a game against the Lakers would be a loss either place)**

Current Standings:

Los Angeles Lakers 51-18

Denver 47-23

Dallas 46-23

Utah 45-25

Phoenix 43-26

Oklahoma City 42-26

San Antonio 41-27

Portland 42-28

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Houston 36-32

Memphis 37-33

Spurs: Current record 41-27 25-10 Home 16-16 Road

14 Games left (3 W/8 L/4 SG) 6 Home 9 Road

5 – 3 since last post

Won all 4 supposed to have won (NYK, @Minn, Lac, GS)

Won 1 swing game (@Mia)

Lost 3 supposed to have lost (@Cle, @Orl, @Atl)

Remaining Games :

Wins – @NJN, @Sac, Minn

Losses – LAL, Cle, @Bos, Orl, @LAL, @Den, @Dal

Swing - @OKC, Hou, @Phx, Mem

OKC Thunder: Current record 42–26 22-11 Home 20-15 Road

14 Games left (3 W/5 L/ 6 SG) 8 Home 6 Road

5 -2 since last post

Won 2 games supposed to have won (@Sac, NJN)

Won 1 game supposed to have lost (Utah)

Won 2 swing games (NO, @Tor)

Lost 1 swing game (@Char) and 1 supposed to have won (@Indy)

Remaining Games:

Wins- @Philly, Minn, @GS

Losses- LAL, @Bos, @Dal, @Utah, @Den

Swing- SA, Hou, Port, Phx, @Port, Mem

Portland: Current record: 42-28 23-13 Home 19-15 Road

12 Games Left (4 W/4 L/4 SG) 5 Home 7 Away

5-1 since last post

Won 4 games supposed to win (Sac, @GS, @Sac, Wash)

Won 1 swing game (Tor)

Lost 1 supposed to lose (@Den)

Remaining Games:

Wins- NYK, @Sac, @LAC, GS

Losses- Dal, @Den, Dal, @LAL

Swing- @Phx, @NO, @OKC, OKC

Memphis: Current record: 37-33 22-15 Home 15-18 Road

12 Games left (3 W/4 L/5 SG) 4 Home 8 Away

5-2 since last post

Won 3 games supposed to win (NJN, NYK, GS)

Won 1 swing game (Chi) and 1 supposed to lose (@Bos)

Lost 1 supposed to lose (Den) and 1 swing game (@Hou)

Remaining Games:

Wins- @Sac, @GS, Philly

Losses-Dal, @Orl, @Dal, @Den

Swing- @Mil, NO, Hou, @SA, @OKC

Houston: Current record: 36-32 20-15 Home 16-17 Road

14 Games left (4 W/3 L/7 SG) 6 Home 8 Away

5-1 since last post

Won 3 games supposed to win (@Wash, NJN, @NYK)

Won 1 game supposed to lose (Den) and 1 swing game (Mem)

Lost 1 supposed to lose (Bos)

Remaining Games:

Wins- LAC, Wash, @Indy, @Sac

Losses- LAL, @Bos, Utah

Swing- @Chi, OKC, @SA, @Mem, Char, @Phx, NO

Phoenix: Current record: 43-26 27-9 Home 16-17 Road

13 Games left (5 W/2 L/6 SG) 5 Home 8 Away

Remaining Games:

Wins- @GS, @NYK, @Minn, @NJN, @Det

Losses- Den, @Utah

Swing- Port, @Chi, @Mil, SA, @OKC, Hou

Potential Final Records:

Phx 48-28 with 6 Swing games

Port 46-32 with 4 Swing games

OKC 45-31 with 6 Swing games

SA 44-34 with 4 Swing games

Hou 40-35 with 7 Swing games

Mem 39-37 with 5 Swing games

Obviously any team can win/lose on a given night against any opponent, but thought this was a good starting point. A few other things did stand out to me.

- Houston looks to be the only team currently outside of the playoffs who has a chance to make a move. They have a lot of swing games and could really make a push for the 8th seed

- Portland has been on a huge tear lately, so if they keep winning, they might move up.

- It really looks like we’re going to be in the 7th or 8th seed, so we should gear up for a 1st round match up against the Nuggets or Lakers.

- We also might catch a break the last few games of the season as Denver and Dallas might rest some of their starters against us. Those could turn into important wins. Although I doubt either of those teams wants to do us any favors.

- Our remaining schedule is tough, but so are the schedules for everyone else in the West playoff race.

One last thought. I do believe getting Tony Parker back for the playoffs will be crucial. He may not be 100% right away, but the Spurs need him. I’ve noticed a lot of talk lately about Parker not being needed and how we should get rid of him, but I think everyone is putting a little too much stock into our team’s performance against the Warriors and Clippers. We need Parker to beat good teams. We need Parker to beat the best teams in the league. He gives our offense a dimension that nobody else does. Tony leading our starters and Manu leading the bench is the best way for our offense to thrive and the team’s best chance to win. I’m still optimistic about what this team can do. RJ is turning things around, and if McDyess decides to ever wake up and play, we could be dangerous come playoff time. We might just be a lower seed than most of us had hoped or expected this year.

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