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Rockmnation

The Boy

Apr 10, 2008 Nov 22, 2008 786 2381

a fan of

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For those who want to see MizzouFan's writing in video form...

...it sounds like you'll want to check out Border War Rivalry (via Rock Chalk Talk).

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Front Page Friday!

You know what to do.

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Rock M Roundtable!

Atch is out today...he sent in his contribution below...

1 - Three teams remain in the running for the Big 12 South--Texas, OU, and Texas Tech.  Of the three, who would you most rather face in title game, and who would you least rather face?

2 - Wants aside, who do you think we will face?  (And since your answer will be directly impacted by this game, who wins OU-TT this weekend?)

3 - Favorite moment from the 2008 season thus far?

4 - A week later, I'll ask it again: Any thoughts about your local basketball club yet?

5 - Both Missouri and Kansas have ridiculous numbers of freshmen on this year's basketball team...just a week into their respective careers, who's your favorite to this point?

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Mizzou Links, 11-19-08

As we've got 2.5 weeks till the Big 12 title game, PowerMizzou's Gabe looks into the different potential matchups against UT, Tech or OU...who Mizzou may want to play, and who they may not...

One thing's for certain: no matter who they play, if Mizzou wins the Big 12 title game, their bowl picture is very clear.  Lose that game, and things get really muddy...

The game might not be worth as much this time around, but Mizzou-Kansas is still eight steps beyond fierce...

Dave Matter empties the notebook on Iowa State...

Big picture viewpoint for a moment: Nothing the Tigers could have done during the last four weeks would erase the disappointing performances against Oklahoma State and Texas, but if anything, Gary Pinkel’s team reinforced its dominance over the North Division. If you missed it in Sunday’s game story, the Tigers have won 10 in a row over North opponents, outscoring them 468-182. That’s impressive anyway you cut it.

Yes, the North Division is hardly recognizable compared to its first few years of existence or the stretch from 1999-2001 when two teams — either Colorado, Kansas State or Nebraska — won at least 10 games each season. But there’s something to be said for dominating your peers. If the Tigers beat Kansas on Nov. 29, MU’s senior class will have notched at least three victories over all five North opponents.

But you can look at Missouri’s North supremacy this way, too: Maybe Missouri can take some responsibility for the rest of the division's slippage. Maybe Missouri’s won more head-to-head recruiting battles and done a better job finding players outside of the North region, i.e. Texas.

Coaching stability is probably a factor, too. Pinkel became the dean of the division after the 2006 season. Kansas, Iowa State and Colorado have each gone through one head-coaching change since Pinkel came to Missouri, while Nebraska and Kansas State have made two head-coaching changes over that time.

Kenji Jackson: future star and almost-Jayhawk...oh yeah, and it's "Ken-juh," not "Ken-jee."

To basketball, where it's so far, so good with Mizzou's freshmen...

And finally, via Mizzourah, I find something close to my heart: in-depth data analysis of Mizzou basketball.  I've been tossing around what kind of "box score" I could throw together for each game (when the games start mattering a hair more), and a lot of the ideas are similar to this...I'm intrigued..

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Mizzou-ISU (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Alright, as with last week's piece, I'll start with KSU-MU analysis, then drop in all of last week's Big 12 BTBS box scores...and as always, the most interesting stuff is bolded...

Mizzou (52)


Iowa St. (20)

% Close = 35.5%
46.6% Field Position %
53.4%
76.6% Leverage %
67.5%
TOTAL
64 Plays 77
37.04 EqPts 25.81
62.5% Success Rate 45.5%
0.58 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.34
1.204 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.790
CLOSE GAME ONLY
36 Plays 14
16.52 EqPts 2.94
52.8% Success Rate 35.7%
0.46 PPP 0.21
0.987 S&P 0.567
RUSHING
15.57 EqPts 4.46
65.2% Success Rate 39.1%
0.68 PPP 0.19
1.329 S&P 0.585
2.90 Line Yards/carry
3.06
PASSING
21.47 EqPts 21.34
61.0% Success Rate 48.2%
0.52 PPP 0.40
1.133 S&P 0.877
NON-PASSING DOWNS
63.3% Success Rate 46.2%
0.63 PPP 0.24
1.264 S&P 0.706
PASSING DOWNS
60.0% Success Rate 44.0%
0.41 PPP 0.52
1.008 S&P 0.963
TURNOVERS
2 Number 2
6.39 Points Lost 6.06
1.82 Points Given 8.31
8.21 Total T/O Pts 14.37
+6.16 Turnover Pts Margin -6.16
0.915 Q1 S&P 0.839
1.245 Q2 S&P 0.704
1.251 Q3 S&P 0.766
1.645 Q4 S&P 0.896
0.787 1st Down S&P 0.649
1.281 2nd Down S&P 1.024
2.265 3rd Down S&P 0.840
  • The yardage ended up being pretty close between the two teams (Mizzou 479, Iowa State 444), but all that truly matters is close-game stats, and Mizzou dominated here.
  • After last year's performance, I was wary of the day Alexander Robinson might have against Mizzou, but the Mizzou front seven was up for the challenge.  Aside from one nice run by Robinson that got them out of the shadow of their goalline (okay, there were no shadows...it was at night) and a couple shifty runs by Austen Arnaud, there was nothing here for the Cyclones.  Mizzou's rushing PPP was almost four times higher than ISU's.
  • For the first time in a while, Mizzou's S&P on Passing Downs crept back over the 1.000 mark.  Good to see.  We'll need all the Passing Downs success we can find in our two trips to Arrowhead.
  • ISU's success on third downs and Passing Downs was unacceptably high, but...I feel comfortable in saying that anytime Mizzou manages a 2.265 S&P on third downs (remember: anything over about 0.900 or 0.950 is a good S&P), they're going to win no matter what their defense does.
  • It was also nice to see Mizzou's offense continue to get into more and more of a rhythm with each passing quarter--their S&P improved each 15 minutes.

 

Poll
Who was Mizzou's statistical MVP against Iowa State?

  67 votes | Results

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Mizzou Links, 11-18-08

Seriously, somebody give Hannah Storm a sandwich...

Mizzou 103, Chattanooga 75.  A near-flawless second half led Mizzou to an easy win.  You can see what Mike Anderson's system looks like in this game--the other team knows what we're going to do and does everything it can to stop it.  And then about 16 minutes into the game, they get mentally exhausted and the game comes crumbling down.  Box Score!  Thoughts...

  • This is going to be a free-shooting, streaky team, but...31 3's is probably too many when only one person is actually making them.  Matt Lawrence went 4-for-8 from long-range (which was great to see), and the rest of the team went a tidy 6-for-23.
  • Kim English went only 3-for-8 from the field and 2-for-5 from 3-point range, but his energy late in the first half bought Mizzou some distance before halftime.  And then the starters stomped on the throat to start the second half.
  • Marcus Denmon's shot failed him last night (0-for-5 from 3-point range, 2-for-8 overall), but he still contributed 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 rebounds and only 1 turnover.  That's good to see.
  • Good Leo: 25 points on 12 shots, 5 offensive rebounds, 4 assists.  That's Fantastic Leo right there.
  • 21-for-36 from the FT line is poor, but here's why I'm okay with it: Leo and Demarre Carroll went 14-for-18.  They're going to take a majority of our FTs this year, and over time the guards will shoot just fine there (you have to figure the G's will be in the 70% range).  If Leo and Demarre shoot 78% for the year like they did last night, we'll be in good shape.
  • I liked Justin Safford's line--5 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block and 1 assist in 13 minutes.  That's the perfect contribution from him.

All in all, just a nice effort against a team that was making some lucky 3's and staying in the game for a while.

Chattanooga wrap-up links!

It took a while to get the paperwork in, but Mike Anderson has officially locked down Signee #2 of his 2009 recruiting class.  6'10 F/C Keith DeWitt has become the third Anderson signee (after Zaire Taylor and Justin Safford) from Charis Prep School in Goldsboro, NC.  DeWitt's name emerged late in the recruiting process, but he seemed to end up drawing quite a bit of interest, with offers from OU, OSU, West Virginia, N.C. State, Florida State, Marquette, and others.

Hate Week(s) Day #2!  Get this: The Missourian reports that the Kansas game is still important to the Tigers.  Who knew?  Oh yeah, and...GAG ME!

Finally, need more of a football fix?  It's Dave Matter's Big 12 Football Notes!  Plus, Vahe Gregorian looks at how Texas Tech-Oklahoma impacts Mizzou.

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Basketball Live Thread: Chattanooga at Ol' Mizzou

Who: Missouri Tigers vs. Chattanooga Mocs
Where: Mizzou Arena (Capacity 15,061)
When: 7:00 p.m. CST
TV: Mizzou Sports Network (Dan McLaughlin play-by-play; Jon Sundvold analyst)


Next Game

Chattanooga Mocs
@ Missouri Tigers

Monday, Nov 17, 2008, 7:00 PM CST
O`Reilly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Tip-Off, Mizzou Arena

Monday Musings - The Big XII North Champion Edition

Complete Coverage >



Team Leaders

Stat Player AVG
Scoring Leo Lyons 21.0
Rebounds DeMarre Carroll 9.0
Assists J.T. Tiller 5.0
FG% Justin Safford 100.0
FT% Marcus Denmon 100.0
3PT% Justin Safford 100.0
Blocks Zaire Taylor 1.0
Steals J.T. Tiller 4.0


Team Leaders

Stat Player AVG
Scoring Stephen McDowell 20.0
Rebounds Nicchaeus Doaks 9.0
Assists Keyron Sheard 6.0
FG% Jasper Williams 60.0
FT% Stephen McDowell 100.0
3PT% Stephen McDowell 70.0
Blocks Jasper Williams 0.0
Steals Jasper Williams 2.0

As always, make Rock M Nation your base of operations tonight with comments, observations, complaints, raves, etc.  Don't have an account? Sign up for one already!

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Mizzou Volleyball signs three

Paola Ampudia: '07 JUCO Player of the Year
Kate Harris: potential next setter
Lindsey Petrick: big middle blocker

The defense should be strong next year, but Mizzou needs all the offensive help it can get. Hopefully Ampudia can contribute immediately.

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Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (after 7 weeks)

No big marquee game this week, but one thing's for certain regarding the BTBS numbers: if only one game is played, everybody's numbers change.  So let's see what happened with everybody winning easily and Texas Tech and Oklahoma watching on TV.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 242.0
1 239.4 +2.4
2 Texas Tech 233.1
3 230.4 +2.7
3 Oklahoma 228.8
2 230.9 -2.1
4 Oklahoma State 219.0
5 213.7 +5.3
5 Missouri 217.0
4 214.7 +2.3
6 Nebraska 210.1
7 202.9 +7.2
7 Kansas 203.7
6 205.2 -1.5
8 Baylor 187.8
9 182.1 +5.7
9 Kansas State 178.3
8 187.4 -9.1
10 Colorado 170.1
10 175.8 -5.7
11 Texas A&M 169.9
11 173.5 -3.6
12 Iowa State 164.4
12 161.8 +2.6

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

I should note that I've all but decided to change the "Close Game" parameters.  Currently, they are straight forward--if the scoring margin is within less than 17 points, it's a "close game".  If not, it's not.  I'm thinking about changing that to "within less than 21 or 24" for the first half, then maintaining "within less than 17" for the second half.

I guess Texas Tech's former opponents did better than Oklahoma's, as Tech managed to go up 2.7 points on bye while Oklahoma fell 2.1.  I can't say I understand how that happened--OU's only two opponents who haven't played Tech are Nebraska and Baylor, who both played well last week--but it did, and I'm going to live with it.  Needless to say, they're close enough that the winner of Saturday night's game in Norman will indeed be at least #2 next Monday...maybe #1.

Category rankings and projections after the jump.

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