I bet TNT is not too happy rigth now.  

The second ever outdoor NBA game between the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns will be lacking some star power.  Carmelo Anthony will miss his second preseason game due to his bruised finger.  Allen Iverson reportedly experienced some swelling in his bruised knee last night and will sit out tonight's game.  On the Suns side of the ledger Amare Stoudemire will not be playing due to a scratched iris.

Despite the injuries, TNT is still planning on broadcasting the game at 8:00 PM Mountain.  I decided to open up a game thread since the game will be nationally televised so feel free to leave your thoughts as you watch.

Also, Bright Side of the Sun actually did some research and has learned that the weather forecast for the game is a temperature of 68 degrees at tip off with a wind of 15 miles per hour.  Could be fun.

Game Info

The Denver Nuggets opened up their 2008 preseason schedule tonight at the Pepsi Center against the Minnesota Timberwolves.  They were without Carmelo Anthony due to a bruised finger, but that is something they will have to get used to as he will  miss the first two games of the regular season due to suspension.

The game was not on television nor was it on the radio.  To prove my dedication to all of you I actually spent my own money to attend the game along with my wife, daughter, nephew and sister in law.  (As the guy in the video for Yankee Rose by David Lee Roth says I like to keep two women around at all times.  That way if there is any conversation, I don’t have to be involved in it.

We will all get to see the Nuggets tomorrow night as they play in the great outdoor game of 2008 against the Suns so my observations will only be relevant until everyone sees them play tomorrow night.  That means here is a quick and dirty review of what I witnessed first hand tonight during the Nuggets 118-95 drubbing of the Timberwolves unfiltered and as I scribbled everything down on my little notepad.  Well, actually they are somewhat filtered for your protection.

• ·         Nuggets fans were treated to quite a slam dunk extravaganza by The Birdman and J.R. Smith in the pregame layup line.  The best of which was a dunk by Chris Andersen, sporting a sweet mohawk by the way, as he came in from the right side, passed the ball between his legs and dunked on the left side of the rim with his left hand.
  
• ·         Nene, in his first game as the Nuggets starting center, played a very solid game.  He showed the ability to face up and drive both right and left and did a good job of finishing at the rim.  He rebounded well and was solid on defense against Al Jefferson.  He did get a little lost during his rotations, but that was a common theme.  Offensively, he allowed himself to get pushed out beyond the block by Jefferson and as a result mostly faced up when he received the ball in the post.  Even though he did not do much traditional scoring on the block, he still was a massive upgrade over Camby.  With Nene and Kenyon setting solid screens the Nuggets pick and roll game will be much improved this season.  In fact there were a couple of occasions where they ran a successful high screen and roll with Kenyon and Nene.  Kinda weird, but strangely effective.
  
• ·         The Nuggets newfound defensive focus seemed eerily similar to last season’s defensive focus.  Early on there seemed to be a lack of communication on pick and rolls and it was not a rare occurrence where Timberwolf players were left open after a missed rotation.  The starters did do better in the second half and the second unit was much better, but we will get to them later.
  
• ·         The Nuggets look to be attempting to implement a man defense with zone principles like the Celtics did last season.  That means they bring an extra defender over to the ball side while the weak side zones up to cover the other three offensive players in case there is a rotation.  I do not think the Nuggets played any straight up zone tonight.
  
• ·         I was excited to see Kevin Love play and he had a pretty average game.  Whether he was guarding Nene or Kenyon Martin they both would face him up and drive.  Love ended up in first quarter foul trouble attempting to guard the Nugget big man duo.
  
• ·         We may have seen a bit of insight into what George Karl is thinking from a rotation standpoint.  Things were thrown off a bit thanks to Melo’s absence and I assume the minutes that went to Ruben Patterson would be absorbed by Linas Kleiza who started in Carmelo’s stead.  J.R. Smith was the first sub and he entered the game for Anthony Carter and played in the backcourt with Allen Iverson.  Andersen was the first big off the bench replacing Martin and Steven Hunter replaced Nene soon after although Hunter did not play in the first half.  Juwan Howard, Renaldo Balkman and Patterson both played a few minutes in both halves.  The first point guard off the bench was Shush Parker and he also made an appearance in each half.  Players who only received garbage time minutes were Mateen Cleaves, Nick Fazekas and James Mays.  I would think the way minutes were handed out things are not looking good for Cleaves, Fazekas and Mays, although I doubt anyone expected either of those three to make the team.
  
• ·         J.R. Smith ended the game with only a 6-16 performance, but he really played well.  In my opinion he only forced one shot, he continued to display his improved midrange game hitting a couple of pull up jumpers.  He played under control looking to set up teammates (he made a really nice entry pass in traffic to Kenyon in the post).   Defensively he did have flashes of disinterest, but for the most part, he made an effort.  He still needs to work on his positioning and he tends to give up on plays too early after he is beaten.  He did give up a four point play, hitting Blake Ahearn with a cross body block after he let go of the ball.  It was a poor mental decision, but I liked the effort.  He can learn the mental side of playing defense, but without that effort it will not matter what he knows.
  
• ·         Surprisingly enough, the Nuggets defense did not collapse in the absence of Marcus Camby.  All of the bigs did a better job of hedging out on pick and rolls than Nugget fans are used to seeing.  I already mentioned that they struggled early on with their recovery rotations though.  I trust they will clean that up though.  Andersen did a good job hedging, but tended to leave the ball handler a little too early in an attempt to get back to his man.
  
• ·         Smush Parker entered the game and made two poor decisions right off the bat.  After that he seemed to settle down and he played a solid game.  He has the potential to be a very good defender with his 6’ 4” frame, long arms and quickness.  If Atkins did not have a guaranteed contract I would swap him out for Parker right now as the third point guard (behind Carter and AI).
  
• ·         Speaking of Parker’s defense, I really liked the defensive energy the second unit of Parker, Smith, Dahntay Jones, Andersen, Balkman and Hunter displayed.  Karl had spoken of his desire to do more trapping and pressure defense and it was those guys who he chose to implement those strategies with.  They are all quick, have good size and can guard more than one position.  They created a lot of havoc on the floor and they were able to get some easy baskets off of turnovers.  Andersen did a very good job on the boards.  He was strong boxing out, crashing the glass and chasing down longer caroms as proven by his nine boards (editor's note:  his nine rebounds somehow became 11 in the box score after this post was published) in under 18 minutes.  Karl stuck Jones Randy Foye to provide some full court pressure and he had his moments in that role.  Birdman tried to block everything in sight which resulted in a couple of legit blocks, a couple after the whistle and a plethora of instances where he was shot faked out of position.  There was not much offense on the floor as J.R. was forced to carry the load of scoring and setting everyone else up on his own.  I would expect to see Karl keep another starter who can score or Kleiza on the court so that the offense is not completely reliant on J.R. in the future.
  
• ·         One of the reasons I wanted to see this game was to assess whether or not Juwan Howard could contribute in more ways than in the locker room.  Howard played well on both ends of the floor and I see no reason why he cannot make the team as a guy who can play ten minutes off the bench and provide some injury insurance for the front line.  Howard moved well on defense and did as well as could be expected when he was guarding Jefferson.  He did not provide much of a boost on offense, but he kept the ball moving and did not take anything off the table.  However, Howard’s biggest contribution was I his leadership.  There were a couple of occasions where he called his teammates on the floor together to discuss what was going on.  That was a pleasant surprise.  I think there is room on the regular season roster for Howard.   
  
• ·         Anthony Carter had some success last season shooting from 19 to 20 feet instead of moving out behind the three point line.  As the season moved on he abandoned the long two point shot and began taking more threes and as a result was less successful.  Tonight he was back to shooting that 20 footer and he looked good doing it.  Hopefully, he will not try to do too much and will set up in that area instead of behind the three point line when he is waiting for a reversal.
  
• ·         Renaldo Balkman was brilliant.  He has amazing defensive instincts which allow him to make steal after steal while not taking unnecessary risks and leaving his teammates to play four on five.  I would love to see Balkman play 20 minutes off the bench at the three and four.
  
• ·         A little note for Timberwolf fans in case any are reading this.  Randy Foye looked really good.  He never forced anything, but proved he could get in the lane and finish.  We already knew he could shoot and I expect a nice offensive season from him.
  
• ·         Staying with the T-Wolves I would love to see some of the battles in Timberwolves practice between Rafael Araujo and David Harrison.  Talk about unintentional comedy.
  
• ·         By the way, Nene is definitely in shape.
  
• ·         Mike Miller played sparingly, but he looked a little beefy.
  
• ·         One play that caught my eye was the Timberwolves threw the ball away as the shot clock was winding down.  The ball was rolling towards the sideline down on the other end of the court.  The Nuggets could have let it just roll out of bounds, but AI busted his hump down the floor to try to save the ball and trigger a fast break.  Unfortunately, the shot clock expired a fraction of a second before AI picked the ball up and passed it ahead, but I appreciated the effort nonetheless.
  
• ·         Patterson was definitely watching the Nugget Dancers more than anyone else.  Note to Nugget dancers:   Do not accept any child care positions in the Patterson household.  It does not matter how much he offers to pay you.
  

One more thing.  The Nuggets scored 118 points.  Melo obviously had zero points and AI only had five.  Sure it was preseason and it may say more about the Wolves defense than anything else, but that is not something you would expect to see.

I am beginning to feel some strange inexplicable enthusiasm for the upcoming season.  It is not the positive stories proclaiming the new Carmelo Anthony or how George Karl is thrilled with the way the team is working or how they can win 60 games.  It has nothing to do with that prefabricated horse drivel.  We hear the same talk every year.

The source of this cautious optimism has everything to do with how last season ended.  Now how can it possibly be that I could find hope in the huge embarrassing failure that was the Nuggets 2008 playoff flameout?  Well, for the first time in the last five seasons the Nuggets have been forced to acknowledge that they are flawed and must improve in order to truly compete with the best teams in the league.

Five seasons ago in the spring of 2004 the Nuggets faced the Minnesota Timberwolves in their first playoff appearance in eight years.  They managed to win a game and were relatively competitive.  There was hope for the future and the commonly held belief was that as Melo developed and the team grew they would be a contender.  No one was upset with the outcome of that series.

The next season they won 49 games thanks to the second half surge behind new coach George Karl.  They went on to face the mighty Spurs in the playoffs and played a highly competitive five game series.  The belief was once they had a full season under Karl they would win a butt load of game, be a high seed and host a couple of playoff series.

Fast forward to the 2005-2006 season and things did not go so swimmingly.  They dropped down to 44 wins, but managed to win their division, which they were able to convince each other that that was some kind of improvement over the previous season where they won 49 games, but did not win the division.  They were the third seed due to the fact they won the division and received a seemingly favorable matchup with the traditionally inept Los Angeles Clippers.  Well, even with the lower degree of difficulty the Nuggets could manage only one win, but the disharmony amongst the team and Karl (that was the series where Kenyon was benched) was an easy scapegoat to prevent them from realizing they just lost a playoff series to the Clippers and it really was not even a close matchup.

The following season the Nuggets had an eventful regular season, complete with a fracas with the Knicks, which saw them bring in Allen Iverson.  Well, once again there were high hopes for the Nuggets playoff chances following a 10-1 finish to the regular season, but once again they faced the Spurs.  After yet another five game banishment the excuse was they just needed a training camp with Iverson on board to iron things out.

That brings us to last season.  They did post the first 50 win season in 20 years, but they were no better relative to the rest of the league than they had been in the previous four seasons.  For the first time in their five year stretch of first round exits they were swept.  They were not competitive and there were no excuses to be made.  They were simply nowhere near as good as the Lakers. 

The lack of an alibi for their performance has forced them to look into the mirror and realize that if they want to make a dent in the playoffs they must change the way they approach the game.  They must look in the mirror and deal with the blemishes they have simply covered over in the past.  The very blemishes that have been so apparent to anyone who has watched them on a somewhat regular basis during that five year stretch.

Aside from the collective impetus to improve, there are also individuals who are seeking some type of redemption.  Nene has a chance to establish himself as the Nuggets starting center.  He will be motivated to excel this season.  J.R. Smith knows that he can be an all-star caliber player if he continues to work hard and the three year, $16 million contact he signed last month will look like a pittance compared to what his next deal will look like should he reach his potential.  Melo spent a good deal of the summer playing with Kobe, LeBron and Wade.  All of those guys have been to the finals in the last three seasons and Kobe and Wade have rings.  If Melo does not reexamine how he has gone about playing basketball for the Nuggets after the events of the previous six months he probably never will.

It is not only the players, but Karl has a lot to prove this season.  He knows how many fans want him out of the picture.  If he does not step up to the plate for one last hurrah as an NBA coach this season he will have to live with that the remainder of his days. 

I might be completely wrong, but if we are ever going to see the best of the Nuggets and the best of George Karl, it has to be this season.  Of course, I am not going to truly believe that myself until I see a difference on the court.

Even so, I have a feeling I just cannot shake.

With the departure of Marcus Camby most fans, analysts and pundits agree that the key player for the Nuggets this season is Nene.  I have concurred with that belief as it is painfully obvious that the Nuggets are in big trouble if Nene misses another 60 games this season.  As much attention as Nene is receiving  there is one other player who I believe is vital to the Nuggets success this season who has yet to have a single article written about him and that is Linas Kleiza.

Kleiza is an eye of the beholder player.  Almost everyone you talk to will have a slightly different view of the Vanilla Gorilla.  Some think he is a very good player who would be starting for half the teams in the NBA.  Some see a one dimensional player.  Some see him as an overrated scrub and others will tell you that he can be a star. 

In my opinion there is some truth in every one of those observations.  For a late first round draft pick Kleiza has been incredibly productive.  He had an average first season and then made a major jump in production in his second season.  Last year, his third season in the NBA, he earned even more playing time and produced a 41 point game against the villainous Utah Jazz.  The Nuggets like him enough that they turned down a deal with Sacramento last season that would have brought in Ron Artest because they did not want to part with LK (and also because George Karl was getting a nervous twitch just thinking about adding another, shall we say, strong willed player like Artest to a team that was already past its quota).

Some of the things Kleiza has done well include making the adjustment from college power forward to NBA combo forward, which is a hurdle that has caused many a talented player to be dumped out the colon of the league, adjusting to the NBA three point line better than anyone expected and his ability to drive to his right and explode to the rim to finish.

In the past I have stated that I believe Kleiza is somewhat overrated by most Nugget fans due to his quick adjustment to the NBA.  I think he blossomed so quickly that many observers overestimated his ceiling.  For example, I think Kleiza’s ceiling is the fifth floor (I am just making this floor system up so just try to follow along).  He reached the fourth floor in his third season.  Because of that some people think his ceiling is the seventh or eighth floor.  Combine that with the low expectations that come with being drafted in the late 20’s and I can understand why anyone who has watched him would be prone to overrating him.

If I think he is overrated, how can I say he is a key to the Nuggets this season?  First of all, he does have room to improve.  I do not think he will ever be a 20 point per game scorer and a player who you can give him the ball on the wing and let him do his thing.  I already mentioned his ability to drive right.  If he can learn to do even half as well driving left as he does driving right, it will make him a much more dangerous player on offense.  His second season he shot 37.6% from three point range and 85.2% from the free throw line.  Last season those numbers dropped to 33.9% and 77.0%.  If he can get those averages back up to where they were two seasons ago that too will allow him to raise his level of play on offense even higher.

If Kleiza does indeed continue to raise his offensive performance he can be the offense off the bench that every team needs and will allow George Karl to insert J.R. Smith into the starting lineup.  I believe Starting J.R. alongside Allen Iverson will greatly increase the Nuggets chances to succeed.  Karl has mentioned that he realizes he can play AI and J.R. Smith in the backcourt together and indeed he did that at times last season.  One key reason it is in the Nuggets best interests for J.R. to be a starter is that will mean neither Anthony Carter nor Chucky Atkins will be starting.  (I realize the whole cliché it does not matter who starts and who finishes and no matter who starts J.R. can still play 30 minutes a game, but I want my best players on the court together as long as possible.  For me that means J.R. is a starter.)

Kleiza can also have an impact in more ways than just scoring.  Before last season I proclaimed that I thought LK could become that key player that every championship team needs and I still believe that.  He has the potential to be that Robert Horry type player who can hit the big three, grab the big rebound or produce the key blocked shot.  He is never going to be a lock down defender due to his “tweener” physical traits although he is smart enough and dedicated enough to be a cog in a strong team defense. 

While I may be somewhat less optimistic than other Nugget fans on how high Kleiza’s potential might be, I do believe he can be a player who plays a crucial role on a championship caliber team.  If he can continue to build on what he has done his first three seasons, and I have no reason to expect he will not continue to do so, he will allow Karl to play his best players on the court longer and thus the Nuggets more successful.

Other Denver Nuggets News:

Allen Iverson, or more accurately his wife, has given birth to their fifth child.  Pickaxe and Roll would like to welcome Dream Alijah Iverson to the world.

Peter Vecsey is bound and determined to have Jamaal Tinsley traded to the Nuggets.  This post from Indy Cornrows quotes a report from Vecsey that the two teams are haggling over the Pacers including the league maximum of $3 million to close the deal.  If this trade does go through I owe Vecsey a big apology, but I find it difficult to believe Denver is really interested in this trade.

Kenyon Martin is the latest Nugget to miss practice time due to inflammation in his right knee.  With some players when you hear they have a knee problem you have to ask if that is the knee he had surgery on.  Not with Kenyon.  No matter which knee is bothering him, it is the one he had surgery on.  Just for the record, the Denver Post said it was his left knee on Tuesday and then claimed it was his right knee on Wednesday.  I trust it is either one or the other and not both.

The Rocky Mountain News has a story where George Karl claims the team is buying in to what he wants and he has not been happier at this point in any season about any team he has coached.  Nugget fans everywhere have prayed that some good would come out of the embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Lakers last season and if it got the attention of this team and proved to them the need to pay attention to the little things and take care of business during the regular season then I will be happy.

Thanks to the power of Ebay I have acquired tickets to the Nuggets preseason opener and am excited to give some first hand reporting on what I see.

NBATV’s Real Training Camp makes it’s annual stop in Denver tomorrow and I will be rolling tape incase there is anything interesting that needs to be documented in the Pickaxe and Roll Film Room.

Around the League:

Portland fans seem to think they have something good being cooked up in the Pacific Northwest.  Check out the reaction from Dave over at Blazer’s Edge for some of the cautiously optimistic euphoria.  (Keep in mind the Blazers lost to Golden State by 15 tonight so they probably will not go 82-0.)

Elgin Baylor was recently dismissed in a dastardly way by the Clippers.  Clipper Steve has complete coverage nd the Sports Guy has a great recap of Baylor’s tremendous career complete with a look into his dominance as a player, courage as a black player before the civil rights movement took hold and the incredible dignity he displayed upon his retirement.  Anyone who loves the NBA is shortchanging themselves if they do not read that article.

Dallas still considers themselves a championship contender.

John Hollinger uses statistical analysis to determine how each player will perform during the course of the season.  He posted his projections on ESPN.com today (you can definitely lose a few hours poring through this stuff) and as can be expected he has angered quite a few fans around the country.  I have a deep respect for how Hollinger strives to utilize statistics to analyze players, but one problem is he is constrained by the numbers.  One criticism people who do not like or understand what he does is that he does not watch the games, but he does.  He watches more than almost anyone.  Anyway, to his credit he makes no attempt to hide that fact and he will tell you when he thinks one of his projections may be off.  Well, Tom Ziller at Sactown Royalty is another fan of Hollinger’s work, but he is baffled by the projection for Kevin Martin.  I will let TZ take it from here.

The team over at Hardwood Paroxysm is putting together team previews in a way only they can (make sure you scroll to the bottom and read the setup for the previews first).

Apparently number one pick Derrick Rose has recovered from his shaky summer league performance and is looking great in camp.

New SB Nation Blog Fear the Sword declares the Cavaliers are in a much better place this training camp than they were last year coming off their finals appearance.

I thought this was a very interesting article in the Denver Post yesterday, but not in a good way.  The primary topic is how the Nuggets are focusing on defense during training camp, which is fine with me, but I believe the conclusions drawn by both the author and George Karl are completely off base.

George Karl is quoted as saying that in order to be a contending team there are certain defensive statistical benchmarks that must be achieved.  The article never directly quotes Karl as to what those defensive categories are, but it goes on to talk about field goal percentage against and points allowed per game.  I would imagine that the author on those categories because those are two that Karl mentioned to him.

I think we all can agree that opponent’s field goal percentage is a decent indicator, although not a perfect one, of the strength of a team’s defense.  Likewise, I think we can all agree that points allowed per game is a horrible way to evaluate a defense. 

I believe most everyone who reads this blog realizes that a much more accurate statistic for evaluating a defense is defensive efficiency.  That statistic takes the pace at which a team plays into consideration.  The Nuggets play at the fastest pace in the league.  They pack over 103 possessions into the average game.  The NBA Champion Boston Celtics played at a much slower pace ending up with 93 possessions per game.

If your opponent has ten more chances to score every game due to a faster pace of play your defense would have to be light years better in order to allow the same total points per game than a team like the Celtics.   

The author laments how the Nuggets were nowhere near the top ten in the NBA for points allowed per game.  In fact they were 29^th out of 30 teams.  However, they were in the top ten in the league in defensive efficiency.  There is no mention whatsoever of that.

The conclusions drawn by the article are that because nine of the top ten teams in the NBA in points allowed per game made the playoffs, and thee of the four conference finalists were in that group as well, the Nuggets must tighten their defense so that they can finish the season as one of those top ten teams. 

Obviously, no team who plays at the fastest pace in the league will ever have a top ten points per game defense.

This is where the article completely misses the point.  Instead of an indictment of the Nuggets defense, a defense that again ranked ninth in the league in defensive efficiency and 14^th in field goal percentage allowed, it is an indictment of the Nuggets pace.

That is an indictment I made over the summer.  If you are a Nuggets fan and have not read this post, I strongly recommend you do so, then come back here with my argument in mind.  If you have read that post, read it again (you will at least have to click on it to know which post I am talking about so go ahead and read it again).  If you have not read it the next sentence will sound ignorant and will probably make you a little mad, especially if you grew up in Colorado cheering for the local sports teams.

I believe the Denver Nuggets must alter their style of play if they are ever to become a true championship contender.  I realize it is fun to watch and Phoenix showed that a nearly perfectly run fast paced system can work (they may not have ever won anything, but they certainly were contenders) and maybe someday some team will win a title with a top three or top five pace factor, but why waste year after year trying to force something to happen when there has been no evidence at all to support that it is possible?

I love the Denver Mile High Mystique as much as anyone, but I strongly believe the Nuggets must evaluate the overall philosophy of their franchise.

There are some people in my life who I trust completely and I know I can believe anything they say.  Then there are others who I am a little wary of.  Peter Vecsey definitely fits in the latter category.  Well, Tom over at Indy Cornrows alerted me to the fact that Vecsey was on the radio in Indianapolis today and he had a little trade rumor surrounding the Denver Nuggets and Jamaal Tinsley. 

According to Vecsey the Nuggets and Pacers had a deal in place to trade Tinsley to the Nuggets in exchange for Chucky Atkins and Steven Hunter, but Rex Chapman used his veto power to reject the deal.

I believe Tinsley is a solid point guard and he was having a very good year in Jim O’Briens’ fast paced system.  He experienced a fallout with the coach and some injuries last year.  Then in the offseason the Pacers made the blockbuster Jermaine O’Neal/T.J. Ford deal and also brought Jarrett Jack in from Portland.  Tinsley suddenly became superfluous and the Pacers announced that Tinsley would be traded.

Heading into this offseason I listed the need to find a point guard as the second most important goal for the Nuggets this summer (the first being to resign J.R. Smith).  Heading into training camp the point guard situation is pretty much the way it was last season.  Atkins is hurt and Anthony Carter is set up to play more minutes than he is suited for.

Would Tinsley be the solution for the Nuggets at point guard? 

The blueprint for the perfect point guard for the Nuggets is a player with decent size who can penetrate, play defense and he has to be able to hit three pointers.  Tinsley has decent size and he can penetrate and score.  However, he is a below average defender and is a horrible three point shooter.  Actually, he is just an all around poor shooter with a career mark of 39.5%.  Another black mark on Tinsley’s record that bears mentioning is his propensity to stay out late and stumble upon trouble (an area in which the Nuggets require no additional assistance). 

However, the primary reason in my mind why I am glad the Nuggets passed on acquiring Tinsley is financial.  I am not an Atkins fan at all, but he is an expiring contract that will come off the books after this season.  Steven Hunter did not play much last season and might not play much this season, but with the departure of Marcus Camby, Hunter is a vital insurance policy for the Nuggets against Nene or Kenyon Martin missing time.  Hunter’s contract does have two years at about seven million dollars on it, but his deal will not have a negative effect on the Nuggets ability to add salary next season.

Tinsley has three years and over $21 million left on his deal.  After this season the Nuggets will only have one really bad contract on the books, that of Kenyon Martin.  They are close to getting their salary structure under control.  Tinsley does not have an awful contract, but it is significant enough that it would prevent them from being able to utilize the trade exception from the Marcus Camby deal.

Tinsley would certainly be an upgrade over the Carter and Atkins duo, but he is not the point guard the Nuggets need.  Pacer fans are hoping that we will bombard Rex Chapman’s voice mail with pleas to change his mind.  Somehow I do not think that is going to happen.

Of course, keep in mind the source for all of this.  Who knows if the Nuggets were ever really interested in the first place?

Aside from the trade rumor itself, there is another potential story here and that is the issue of how the Nuggets front office functions.  You would like to think there is an established hierarchy where some competent individual is in charge and is the final decision maker instead of having a plethora of individuals who can all put the kibosh on anything (picture the UN Security Council).

If everyone has to agree before a deal is done, hopefully that will protect you from making horrible decisions, but if one person can scuttle any given transaction, they could easily miss the boat on a very good deal due to one objector.

I do not know for sure how the front office functions, but if you cannot stand the heat, there may be too many cooks in the kitchen.  Or something like that.

If I say the words injury prone no doubt names start popping into your head.  Nene.  Kenyon Martin.  Tracy McGrady.  Sean May.

OK, maybe May is actually health prone.  From time to time he might suffer from bouts of complete health, or maybe not.

With the success of the Denver Nuggets 2008-2009 season hinging on the health of players like Nene and Kenyon Martin I have been wondering about what it means to be injury prone.  Can an athlete really be injury prone?  Are some players physically more likely to break down?  Could a rash of injuries simply be bad luck?

Most fans would probably place Nene and Kenyon in the injury prone camp.  What about Marcus Camby?  Is he injury prone?  What about a player like Zydrunas Ilgauskas?  How about Gilbert Arenas?

When Camby arrived in Denver he had played in only 29 games in his last season in New York and then again in his first season in Denver.  He was considered more fragile than Mr. Glass from the movie Unbreakable.  Over the previous five seasons he has played in more than 70 games in three of them and he has not played in fewer than 56.  Is he injury prone?  Did he have a stretch of bad luck for a couple of seasons or did he have a stretch of good luck over the previous five?

When Ilgauskas broke his foot in his second season in the NBA and missed 77 games.  His second season was shortened once again as he played in only 24 games due to reaggravating the same injury.  After his second injury Big Z earned the injury prone label.  There was no way he would ever be an effective player because he would always be injured.  Well, here is a number for all those people who wrote Ilgauskas off.  23.  Zydrunas has missed only 23 games over the last six seasons. 

Moving to the present is Gilbert Arenas injury prone?  Before last season in the five campaigns where Arenas was a full time player he played in at least 74 games four times and 80 or more games three times.  Last season he played in 13 games and will miss the first month or two of this season with more knee issues.  Injury prone or is he just in the process of repairing and rehabbing from an isolated injury?

Are there really people walking the streets whose joints and ligaments and muscles are more likely to give way under the stress of a long rugged basketball season?  Well, the presence of people like Sean May tells me that the answer is yes.  There are also people like Gilbert Arenas and Tracy McGrady who injure their knee or back (or shoulder or other knee) and become more susceptible to reinjuring that same part.  Once Arenas’ knee is rehabbed it might be just fine.  In fact, it probably will be.  How many botched knee surgeries are there that players truly not recover from?

Let’s make this more personal for Nuggets fans and get back to Nene and Kenyon.  Nene has injured something on every section of his body at least below his neck.  Has that just been bad luck?  He strained a calf because last offseason he gained so much weight that when he stepped on a scale instead of a number the reading said “Shaq.”  He had his thumb caught in a jersey and then actually contracted cancer.  Those things are random enough that they belong on an episode of Family Guy.  He is not suffering from a debilitating injury or a joint that is falling apart.  In his first two seasons Nene missed only seven games combined.  I believe he has been suffering from bad luck and the law of averages dictates that his fortunes will change.

In Nene’s case I believe the injury prone label is miscast.  Right now in all honesty he is healthy and I have no reason to expect him to miss a large chunk of the upcoming season.

Kenyon Martin is another vital player in the Nuggets rotation this season.  Most Nugget fans wrote him off two years ago when he underwent his second microfracture surgery (well, some actually wrote him off when Kiki Vandeweghe traded for him, but that is a different issue all together).  Kenyon saw his college career end due to a broken leg in the Conference USA conference tournament.  That was a major injury, but proved to be an isolated incident from which he suffered no ill effects going forward.  In his first few seasons he missed time here and there with some minor injuries, but he played in at least 65 games every season and typically over 70 until his first microfracture procedure ended his 2005-2006 season after only 56 games. 

This was when Kenyon first earned the tag of injury prone during his recovery from this first microfracture surgery.  When he struggled to come back to full strength in time for training camp fans began to hold it against him.  It was only after he was taking much longer than originally announced to recover did the Nuggets finally admit he had a microfracture procedure.  Had the fans known the surgery was so serious no one would have honestly expected him to return in time for the next season, but because the team was not upfront with the media and fans about the severity of the injury the expectation was already created for him to play a full slate of games in 2006-2007.  Once Kenyon seemed to struggle to return from the surgery, which we found out completely justified but only after the fact, fans had already turned against him.

By the time he had his second microfracture surgery he was nothing more than a bloated contract on the Nuggets roster.  Martin was widely considered to be a player who would never contribute to the Nuggets again.  Even just a couple of years ago Microfracture still had the stigma of being a death sentence.  The common belief was there is no way a player could recover from having holes drilled in both knees.  However, as we have seen in the past few years, what was once an experimental last ditch resort is now a pretty reliable procedure.  Kenyon proved to have great heart in rehabbing from two such surgeries and as long as the clotted blood (replacing his cartilage) in his knees remains sound he should have no ill effects.  Last season Kenyon played in 71 games.  I see no reason why he would not play in 70 plus games again.  Some would still call him injury prone, but I believe if Kenyon suffers a serious injury this season it should be chalked up to bad luck, not being injury prone.  

Is there really such a thing as being injury prone or is it just a stereotype that makes it easy to put people into categories?  I have made my case that most players who are labeled as injury prone are simply victims of bad luck and chances are that as long as they can avoid a chronic debilitating injury they can come back and play injury free basketball.  Because of that I expect Nene and Kenyon to both be healthy this season.  Sean May, not so much.

What do you think?  Do you expect Nene and/or Kenyon to each miss 30 or more games this season or will they combine to play in 150?