FanPost

Comparing next season's Spurs big men to last year's

David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Spurs set of big men for 2016-17 should include LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon, and possibly yet unknowns. Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw, Boban, and David West are definitely gone. Generally, I will look first at the 2015-16 situation and then the 2016-17.

First, let’s look at the two most prominent overall stats, ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus (RPM) and Basketball Reference’s Box Plus-Minus (BPM).

2015-16 Players

Pos

Age

Tm

G

MP

RPM

RK

ORPM

DRPM

RPM

OBPM

DBPM

BPM

Tim Duncan

C

39

SAS

61

1536

12

-0.48

5.43

4.95

-0.8

5.0

4.1

LaMarcus Aldridge

PF

30

SAS

74

2261

53

0.66

1.49

2.15

0.5

3.5

4.0

Boris Diaw

PF

33

SAS

76

1386

141

-0.57

0.64

0.07

-0.1

1.4

1.2

David West

PF

35

SAS

78

1404

52

-0.69

2.90

2.21

0.1

3.3

3.4

Total

-1.08

10.46

9.38

-0.3

13.2

12.7

Both indicate that the big men in 2015-16 were strong defensibly and weaker on offense. While the totals’ value are only somewhat meaningful both RPM and BPM were quite good and the defensive numbers were quite outstanding.

As the table below shows, the big men for 2016-17 are once again stronger on defense than offense. However, the values are worse. Pau was ranked 10 positions lower than Duncan by RPM but only 3 lower by BPM. While both could be expected to decline with age, Pau is four years younger than Tim. Thus, the down grade, Tim to Pau, is entirely on defense and limited overall.

2016-17 Players

Pos

Age

Tm

G

MP

RPM

RK

ORPM

DRPM

RPM

OBPM

DBPM

BPM

Dewayne Dedmon

C

26

ORL

58

705

170

-2.08

1.76

-0.32

-2.6

1.3

-1.3

Pau Gasol

C

35

CHI

72

2291

22

0.65

3.07

3.72

0.7

1.1

1.8

LaMarcus Aldridge

PF

30

SAS

74

2261

53

0.66

1.49

2.15

0.5

3.5

4.0

Total

-0.77

6.32

5.55

-1.4

5.9

4.5

However, as for RPM and BPM, Dewayne Dedmon, the only known other new big man for 2016-17, is not in the same ballpark as Diaw and West – he has been, of course, on the same court. Obtaining a better fourth big man than Dedmon will be difficult unless the player is a stashed draftee or a remarkably cheap find. The RPM value for a readily available replacement player is -2.1, so Dedmon is a better than marginal player even though his not being extended by ORL might indicate some marginality.

One hope for the performance of Spurs big men in 2016-17 is that Aldridge could perform more like he did near the end of the season and as successfully as he did in 2014-15. Here are his numbers for 2014-15 that I consider a ceiling for his numbers in 2016-17. As one would expect, his RPM value in 2014-15 was much better than 2015-16, 4.06 to 2.15 (Ranked 25 versus 53). His BPM value that I triple checked I had copied correctly are bafflingly lower in 2014-15 possibly even wrong, so I ignored them. His ORPM value shows a potential to have a better season-long offensive performance in 2016-17.

Aldridge Ceiling

Pos

Age

Tm

G

MP

RPM

RK

ORPM

DRPM

RPM

OBPM

DBPM

BPM

2014-15

LaMarcus Aldridge

PF

29

POR

71

2512

25

3.70

0.36

4.06

0.3

0.0

0.3

Now, let’s look at some offensive stats. Per 100 possessions, the 2016-17 set of big men have been making it to the free throw line significantly more often than the 2015-16 set did. Per 100 possessions, they shot 1 less 3-pointer because Diaw was a more prolific 3-point shooter than any of the 2016-17 set were in 2015-16. However, potentially, Aldridge could return to the same or better shooting of 3-point shots than he did in 2014-15 when he shot over a hundred threes at .352 3P%. Reportedly, he has been practicing hard since he signed with the Spurs.

Player per

100 possessions

TS%

FGA

FG%

3P

3PA

3P%

2P

2PA

2P%

FT

FTA

FT%

Tim Duncan

.523

14.7

.488

0.0

0.1

.000

7.2

14.6

.490

3.1

4.4

.702

Boris Diaw

.582

14.1

.527

0.9

2.5

.362

6.5

11.6

.564

2.1

2.8

.737

David West

.573

16.3

.545

0.1

0.3

.429

8.8

16.1

.546

2.3

2.9

.788

Dewayne Dedmon

.606

12.6

.559

0.0

0.0

7.0

12.6

.559

4.0

5.4

.750

Pau Gasol

.565

21.8

.469

0.5

1.5

.348

9.7

20.3

.478

5.0

6.3

.792

LaMarcus Aldridge

.529

23.7

.513

0.0

0.4

.000

12.1

23.3

.521

5.9

6.8

.858

2014-15

LaMarcus Aldridge

.528

28.7

.466

0.8

2.1

.352

12.6

26.6

.475

6.2

7.3

.845

Indeed, the potential may exist to run a 5-out offense leaving the middle including the paint completely open for drives (and kicks if backup defender comes). At least 4-out (some call a kind of small ball) seems reasonable with Leonard, Green, Bertans, Mills, Ginobili, Gasol, Parker, and maybe Forbes, Anderson, and Simmons 3-point threats.

Looking at other stats, a few things stand out ro me in the table below. Dedmon almost never had an assist. While Pau is a good passer, his number of assists in 2015-16 was not high. Rebounding should improve – West and Diaw are relatively short. All three 2016-17 big men are 7-footers (roughly) so blocks may go up as the numbers indicate. You may find other stats in this table interesting as well.

Player

ORB%

DRB%

TRB%

AST%

STL%

BLK%

TOV%

USG%

Tim Duncan

8.8

23.8

16.6

15.3

1.6

3.9

15.3

17.6

Boris Diaw

4.9

13.9

9.6

18.4

1.0

1.2

18.9

17.0

David West

6.0

18.6

12.5

15.4

1.6

3.0

12.3

18.0

Dewayne Dedmon

10.4

25.7

17.9

2.7

1.6

5.4

13.2

15.2

Pau Gasol

9.2

22.2

15.9

8.1

0.9

2.8

7.8

25.9

LaMarcus Aldridge

7.3

28.7

18.2

21.7

0.9

4.7

12.8

24.6

2014-15

LaMarcus Aldridge

7.7

22.9

15.5

9.2

1.0

1.9

7.2

30.2

CONCLUSION

In the net, Pau is almost as good as Duncan, but his defense is significantly worse. One should not expect a dramatic contribution from Dedmon as he is a substantial downgrade from Diaw and West except for height and possibly athleticism. However, regarding performance, Dedmon should be on his way up while Pau is on his way down. Aldridge has potential to improve his total season performance over 2015-16.

As the situation appears today, July 7, 2016, the Spurs will be weaker in big men particularly on the bench. I expect further developments as signings proceed, but not substantial improvement as the salary cap provides a barrier.

Statistics from ESPN and Basketball Reference

ANNEX

A few other stats that I know some find interesting. Of these, I find Dedmon’s Net Rating of +15 the most interesting as it was much larger than that of the team for which he played, ORL.

Player

WS/48

OWS

DWS

WS

ORtg

DRtg

NetRtg

Tim Duncan

.163

1.6

3.6

5.2

107

96

11

Boris Diaw

.132

1.6

2.2

3.8

109

102

7

David West

.184

2.4

2.9

5.4

114

98

16

Dewayne Dedmon

.162

1.2

1.1

2.4

117

102

15

Pau Gasol

.215

5.6

4.5

10.1

107

101

6

LaMarcus Aldridge

.149

3.2

3.9

7.1

114

99

15

2014-15

LaMarcus Aldridge

.165

4.9

3.7

8.6

108

102

6

Source: Basketball Reference

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