FanPost

Spurs Opening Chess Move

We watched OKC@SAS game late Saturday night and marveled at the brilliance of it, which was even more than I expected it to be. This is not just sports, y'all.

This is a Gregg Popovich magic trick. I assume he is the author of this particular brilliance. One of my coworkers, fellow Spurs fan, came by my office this morning and suggested that it's easy to win when all of your shots go in. But I don't think just the offense is the main reason the Spurs won so handily in game 1.

The Switch

The first thing the Spurs did differently that I think really frustrated OKC is to switch the primary defensive assignments of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has historically seriously frustrated both players but he is more effective against Westbrook. Green, on the other hand, is far better on Durant. But most importantly, Westbrook is like the emotional leader of the Thunder, and if he goes off, the team follows. If he is frustrated and ineffective, the team tends to be frustrated and ineffective. So to put the two-time DPOY on Westbrook from the beginning is a move of genius.

Furthermore, making those players work so hard on offense leaves little in the tank for them on defense and I believe this is what led largely to the poor pick and roll defense that plagued OKC Saturday.

The Candy

Oftentimes winning has as much to do with tricking your opponent into doing something unlikely to make them win more than it does with simply outplaying them straight up. In this case, the Spurs have made Serge Ibaka into the hero of the Thunder by frustrating Durant and Westbrook. They are openly inviting the Thunder to give the ball to Roberson by leaving him open frequently. The reality is that if Ibaka has a career game but Durant and Westbrook are held to 70% of their ordinary output then the Thunder are going to have a very difficult time winning against the Spurs.

The Hammer

In a classic NBA Playoffs Popovichism, defense leads to offense. Here's where the Spurs bring the hammer down on the Thunder. The Thunder have two exceptional offensive players that can only be slowed by two of the Spurs elite defenders. They also have a few other players who can score in streaks, like the performance Ibaka showed on Saturday. But the flipside of this is the Thunder's real dilemma: they do not have any players who can come close to defending against the Spurs' best offensive players, and while the Thunder may match the Spurs for top offensive players with two apiece, the fact is that the Spurs roster is packed with extremely serviceable offensive threats all the way down the last man on the bench. It's enough for the Spurs to seriously slow down two players on the Thunder, but the Thunder have to contend with a dozen Spurs on offense.

The X-Factor

In years past Manu Ginobili has played the role of the "X-Factor" on the Spurs to perfection. In this series and likely in the Western Conference Finals, the X-Factor is going to be Danny Green. His defense is a given, but it seems Spurs opponents have foolishly forgotten about his off-the-charts playoffs performance only three years ago, and even my fellow pounders have joined in he dog pile on Danny Green. If he can sustain even half of Saturday night's productivity then the Spurs will have an easy path to the WCF.

What's Next

Golden State don't have the same defensive liabilities as Oklahoma City, but they have a similar two-headed attack that can be slowed by the same Leonard & Green defensive strategy. While the Warriors may not be as lacking on defense as the Thunder, they still will have their hands more than full with the Spurs bigs, namely LeMarcus Aldridge. The simple fact is that the Spurs have an array of offensive weapons that neither OKC nor GS can fully defend, but they have a well-tuned set of defensive weapons that can likely contend with the best of either team.

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