FanPost

Guard Prospects Late in the Draft

Here's how I rank some of the guards that the Spurs will consider with this year's 29th pick.

1. Caris Levert. If the Spurs medical staff signs off on his ability to return to the his college form, we have to take Levert if he's available. This kid is a high-level shooter and a scorer who can create his own shot (and convert very efficiently as a senior), facilitate, and has the length to make defensive contributions. The problem is that if he clears medical evaluation in San Antonio, he probably does elsewhere too and winds up going much higher (maybe as high as Memphis... while some lottery teams like Utah and Chicago have dealt with too many injury problems to roll the dice on him). I know most of Spurs Nation thinks we really need a PG, but Levert is the best possible heir to Manu Ginobili that we could ask for. Simmons didn't show anything to bank on yet, not even in the D-League last year. If Levert's foot injury costs him some burst, he's still probably a good spot up shooter, but not someone you lose sleep passing on at #29. So everything depends on health, and I don't know what the precedents are for an injury history like Levert's.

This time the last two years, I liked Buddy Hield to the Spurs. Before they both returned to school, I preferred Hield to Levert based on what I thought was superior defense and the ability to finish inside. Turns out, Hield is not the combo guard that I imagined, but became an astonishing shooter as a college senior. I still think Hield is best suited to scoring 6th man (almost OKC-era James Harden), but now it looks like he and whoever drafts him will see him as a starting SG. One year later, even after Hield took over the NCAA, I'm not sure Levert isn't the better all-around player anyway. Caris improved as a senior too. It would be nice to know what Levert would have accomplished had he stayed healthy.

2. Isaiah Briscoe. i keep going back and forth on Briscoe for SA, but I don't think there's much chance of drafting a better NBA PG late in the first round the next couple years. If he can get on the Kawhi Leonard post-draft/pre-training camp shooting regimen, maybe he has chance to become a serviceable outside shooter. My hesitancy is partly that I am not confident that he will ever get there, and partly that I don't want to tempt Gregg Popovich with another player who loves to drive inside the three-point line and pull up from mid-range. Briscoe needs to work on his spot up three and side-step three (and eventually, shooting after screens too). But Briscoe is a two-way player who can score and play off the ball. He's crafty and has very nice handles. Worst case, he winds up as a top backup NBA PG. There's a good chance he becomes a Kyle Lowry-level occasional All-Star. I think he's eventually an NBA rotation-caliber player no matter what. I don't think he will be a bust. But we are seeing the unprecedented premium on outside shooting, and with the PG spot so important, how far a team can go with a middle of the pack point guard? He's only a freshman. Maybe he can improve dramatically as a three point shooter, like many guys do after their college freshman year. Briscoe is sometimes compared defensively to Avery Bradley, who is showing improvement on his shot.

Again, I don't see the Spurs getting a chance to draft a more promising PG late in the first round for the forseeable future. My best case scenario is to get Levert this year, and Briscoe next year following his sophmore year. If he does stay in this draft, I think there's a decent chance he rises past the second round. The Clippers could snag him at 25, and if the Sixers decided to draft Ingram (unlikely), Briscoe would be a particularly good fit with their OKC pick.

3. Malcolm Brogdon. Okay, he's not a PG. But he has almost zero bust potential. If he's your backup SG, you have no worries about it. You're insured. He's capable of being a 5th starter who gives you no headaches. He can post up, shoot, run the pick and roll some, and defend some PGs and some SFs.He's a conservative choice, he's not exciting. You wouldn't be getting that difference-maker in the second unit. But he also won't hurt you the way Gary Neal, Bellinelli, and Jonathon Simmons can. He's solid is what he is. You can breathe a sigh of relief that you drafted a two-way player who you can use sooner than later. Pretty good for a 29th pick.

With that reasoning, I think there are few teams that should draft Brogdon in the first. Philly, if they keep both their late first rounders, would be smart to add a stabilizing SG to their rotation. Atlanta, if they trade Jeff Teague for extra picks. Phoenix could think about him to give them defense behind Devin Booker. But It's more likely that Brogdon is still there. There are some wings, like Malachi Richardson, that have more upside than Brogdon, but they are projects who aren't a ready yet and don't present a pressing need for the Spurs. The appeal of Brogdon is that he isn't an upside-based pick. Most GMs would probably select DeAndre Bremby over Brogdon, in hopes of getting an Andre Igoudala like player to bring off the bench-- if they can teach him to shoot. Of course, it's possible that both players are selected ahead of the 29th overall.

** Timeout here to mention Dejounte Murray. Murray was my favorite player to watch in college ball this season, after Denzel Valentine (for completely different reasons). The other Murray (Jamal) was up there too. I have an irrational love of D-Murray. He's so damn slippery and fun to watch. His body control is Bryant-esque (though he's not nearly the athlete Kobe was), but he's not a ball hog like Bryant. And he's such a confident scorer, I am certain that his long-range shooting will improve. Long arms too. And he will fill out a little bit. I have no idea where he'll get drafted. Based on fit, it's a tough call. Unless GMs really believe in his potential to improve his defense and shooting, he's a gamble for teams like Memphis or Philly. He could well be there at 29, and he could be a star. The problem for me is that he's another isolation scorer. Basically, he's a total project who might never be a great fit for this roster. It'd be shocking to see Buford spend dollars on a long-term project in the hopes of getting a future All-Star lead shooting guard... part of me is very sad about this. **

4. Anthony Barber. Barber is the only PG I'd consider taking other than Briscoe at 29. I wouldn't love taking Barber. Mighty mice Kay Felder and Tyler Ulis are better PGs (they are the best PGs in this draft, period). Right now, he's a young Ish Smith. I'd rather draft a two-way stretch forward or center instead. Barber is my concession to pounders who really think we must get PG help ASAP. He's cat-quick, and is improving as a shooter, two things I like. He's fun to watch. If he only becomes a backup, he can be a real differnce-maker for the right coach. With his speed, he could grow into a starting role.

There are several guys whose ceiling is backup PG. I don't want Melo Tremble in this draft. Like all small PGs, Ulis and Felder present problems for their teams in the playoffs. Great to have, if you also have a big PG you can go with instead. And I know he has admirers, but don't want Gary Payton (who is pretty much an old Isaiah Briscoe without the upside). I'd just as soon roll the dice on George De Paula. I know fellow pounder Alamo is pretty high on this guy. I tend to think that great length and huge mitts aren't everything, but it is impossible to imagine he wouldn't be a plus defensively and he does appear to have pretty good handles (all I have to go on are highlight vids). I could probably get excited about De Paula if the Spurs landed him outside of the draft or picked up a second rounder somehow.

** A second timeout here to mention Rasheed Sulaimon who've kept an eye on for years. He's unlikely to get a call from San Antono. But I like him alot as a combo guard. He is skilled all around, can really shoot and is good defensively. He's unquestionably good enough to get drafted in the second round. And even if he goes undrafted, I think he'll wind up with a pretty decent NBA career. **

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With the Spurs' history of drafting PGs like George Hill and CoJo, they'll be coveting another one now that TP is getting up there in miles. But we also have to think about losing Duncan, Diaw and West too. Outside Isaiah Briscoe or Levert, I'd look closely at drafting a two-way big fella instead.

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