FanPost

Has the Kevin Martin Experiment Already Failed?

Despite having a historic regular season by all measures, it has been a relatively uneventful one for the San Antonio Spurs. They have been pretty much locked in the 2nd seed for the entire season, and their success has largely been overshadowed by the record-seeking, defending champion Golden State Warriors.

It's not like the Spurs have been chasing these records (most wins in franchise history at 64-and-counting, best home start in league history at 39-0, etc.); they've just happened. The biggest importance coming into this season was getting LaMarcus Aldridge integrated and comfortable with his new team, and that has been more than accomplished. We wanted to see Kawhi Leonard take the next step to stardom, and he has done us one better by reaching MVP levels of play and becoming one of, if not the best two-way players in the league.

Otherwise, in typical Spurs fashion things have been a pretty drama-free, leaving us to twiddle our thumbs while waiting for the playoffs to roll around. In fact, probably the only drama that has happened this season (if you aren't Manu Ginobili) was online, and that was the "great debate" over whether to cut Rasual Butler or Matt Bonner to make room for former Spurs-killer/sharp-shooter Kevin Martin. It created quite the "rift" between some fans (there's probably never been such a to-do over third-string players before), and it even took PATFO some five days to make up their minds.

However, what was rarely discussed was whether K-Mart was worth that very tough decision. Very few questioned whether he was actually a good sign for the team or not. With Danny Green mired in a season-long icy spell and no true shooter signed to replace Marco Belinelli's production off the bench, there has been some concern about the Spurs' ability to keep up with teams like the Warriors, who can light it up and run away in an instant from beyond arc.

Because of this, signing Martin seemed like a no-brainer. He is a career 38.5% three point shooter, after all, and that seemed to be the one and only thing these historically great Spurs are lacking. Probably the only question regarding his signing was on defense, but if they could handle Belinelli's defensive deficiencies and still win a championship, than surely the same could be said for Martin.

After playing in 11 out of 12 games since his signing and the playoffs looming ever so near, now seems just as good as any to start critiquing his performance as a Spur and whether or not he will have the impact we were hoping for. When relying on the eye test, the answer seems to be a somewhat confident no. Not "no" in the "ultimate failure" kind of way, but just "meh". The offense often appears to stagnate or even slump when he enters the game, and not for any particular reason. He's not hogging or stopping the ball or jacking up shots; he's just kind of there and not much else.

But as Spurs fans know better than anybody, the eye test doesn't always tell the whole story, so we must also look at his stats. In 14:37 mpg, he is averaging 5.1 points while shooting 38.9% from beyond the arc. That's pretty good: definitely better that Green (albeit against lesser defenders off the bench) and right on par with the Spurs second-best rate in the league of 38.1%, and that's what he was signed for.

However, when we dive a little deeper into his advanced stats (thanks to basketball-reference.com), a different story emerges. The first stat that pops out is his +/- per 100 poss. of -13.2. That means the Spurs are a whopping 13.2 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court than on it (or 13.2 points worse with him on, whichever way you prefer to look at it). Now that seems more on par with the eye test.

Another set of stats that are telling is BPM (box plus/minus), which is different than the previous stat in the sense that it compares a player's production per 100 possessions on both ends of the court to that of the average player on the average team over the course of 82 games. Martin's DBPM is -0.3, which is actually a career best but third worst on the team (just ahead of Bonner and Tony Parker). His OBPM is -2.9, which is his worst since his rookie year and last on the team. Combine those together, he has a -3.2 BPM, making him the most below-average player on the Spurs and the only one with a negative rating besides Jonathon Simmons and Andre Miller, neither of whom are expected to contribute much, if anything, during the playoffs. (Of note, Bonner and Butler both have positive BPM's of 2.7 and 1.9, respectively, so make of that what you will.)

The numbers don't do a much in Martin's favor, but some of that can be contributed to his unfamiliarity with the team and system, so a look at his most recent performances with more playing time might be of help...or will it? The first thing that jumps out is in their most recent game against fellow 2nd seed Toronto Raptors, Martin received his first DNP of his brief Spurs career. In the five games before that, Martin had averaged over 20 minutes per game, while shooting a paltry 21.4% from the field and averaging 6.2 points.

So was that DNP - Coach's Decision versus another playoff team just Pop giving him a break after some heavy minutes during rest games for his stars, or did it have more to do with his overall performance so far? In a game that Pop played his main players playoff-caliber minutes (Leonard 40:07, Aldridge 38:26, Tim Duncan 28:44, Parker 27:36, Ginobili 21:19...only Green played below his average at 18:18) and in which all the guards were struggling to shoot (Green, Parker, Ginobili and Patty Mills were a combined 6 of 28 from the field), what, if anything does it say about Martin's potential role in the playoffs he didn't play in what was a clearly a "test" game from Pop?

It's hard to say at this point. He's only been here for twelve games, and it can take players an entire season just to get the hang of playing here. Heck, even Aldridge took several months to truly start looking comfortable in this new system. With six games left and the Spurs locked into their spot, odds are pretty high that Martin will get plenty more chances to prove himself as Pop rests players down the stretch and gears up for the playoffs. Whether or not Martin will play a role by then remains to be seen.

Then again, it may not matter. He was really brought here just in case the Spurs need some emergency shooting at any point, and the reality is, like Butler and Bonner, if they truly need him to be on the floor and producing at any point in the playoffs other than garbage time, then something else is seriously wrong and we could probably kiss 2016 goodbye anyway.

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