FanPost

How much would Tim Duncan make on the open market?

How much is Tim Duncan worth to the Spurs? How much is he worth in free agency? Tim is set to make $10.4M in 2014-15 per HoopsHype.com. Is this an underpay? An overpay? Or a fair salary for another shot at a championship?

Clearly there are many factors that could play into Duncan's value. For this estimate, the assumption will be that Duncan is looking to sign a 1-year contract with a team other than the Spurs. A good place to start when estimating his value will be to review similar players that have signed contracts under the new CBA. Using Basketball-Reference.com's "Player Season Finder", I looked for players that have had comparable seasons to the average of Duncan's last three years. My parameters on the search were: Position: C/PF; PPG: > 12; TRB/G: > 7; BLK/G: > 1; DWS: > 3. While this search isn't perfect, it gives a pretty good picture of similar players. There have only been 12 players to post seasons which match the above requirements in any of the past three seasons as shown below.

Player Season Age Tm G FG% TRB PTS BLK DWS
Al Horford 2012-13 26 ATL 74 54% 10.2 17.4 1.1 4.1
Al Jefferson 2012-13 28 UTA 78 49% 9.2 17.8 1.1 3.3
Al Jefferson 2013-14 29 CHA 73 51% 10.8 21.8 1.1 4.7
Andre Drummond 2013-14 20 DET 81 62% 13.2 13.5 1.6 3.5
Andrew Bynum 2011-12 24 LAL 60 56% 11.8 18.7 1.9 3.3
Anthony Davis 2013-14 20 NOP 67 52% 10 20.8 2.8 3.2
DeMarcus Cousins 2013-14 23 SAC 71 50% 11.7 22.7 1.3 3.8
Dwight Howard 2011-12 26 ORL 54 57% 14.5 20.6 2.1 4.4
Dwight Howard 2012-13 27 LAL 76 58% 12.4 17.1 2.4 4.8
Dwight Howard 2013-14 28 HOU 71 59% 12.2 18.3 1.8 4.1
Joakim Noah 2013-14 28 CHI 80 48% 11.3 12.6 1.5 6.6
Marc Gasol 2011-12 27 MEM 65 48% 8.9 14.6 1.9 4
Marc Gasol 2012-13 28 MEM 80 49% 7.8 14.1 1.7 5.4
Marc Gasol 2013-14 29 MEM 59 47% 7.2 14.6 1.3 3.1
Marcin Gortat 2013-14 29 WAS 81 54% 9.5 13.2 1.5 4
Pau Gasol 2011-12 31 LAL 65 50% 10.4 17.4 1.4 3.1
Tim Duncan 2012-13 36 SAS 69 50% 9.9 17.8 2.7 4.9
Tim Duncan 2013-14 37 SAS 74 49% 9.7 15.1 1.9 4.6

Of these 12 players, 8 have signed contracts under the new CBA which was instituted in December of 2011. The 8 players are listed below along with their salary information

Player Contract Per Year Signed
Al Jefferson 41M / 3yrs 13.6M 2013
Andrew Bynum 12M / 1yrs 12.2M 2013
DeMarcus Cousins 65M / 4yrs 16.3M 2013
Dwight Howard 88M / 4yrs 21.9M 2013
Marc Gasol 58M / 4yrs 14.3M 2011
Marcin Gortat 60M / 5yrs 12.0M 2014
Pau Gasol 22M / 3yrs 7.4M 2014
Tim Duncan 30M / 3yrs 10.1M 2012

It's evident, as we're all aware, that Tim has taken quite a pay cut to play on the Spurs. The only player of these 8 making less than him is Pau Gasol and he's fallen off quite a bit since his successful 2011-12 season. Duncan has been Mr. Consistency during his career and that consistency is worth a lot value. A team would be a getting a known quantity with him but would have to assume some degradation over his previous season and potentially expect lower output than the 2012-2013 season. To offset the aging and, of course, injury concerns, would be the playoff experience and the ability to bring his game to the next level in the playoffs. Tim has consistently stepped up his game in the postseason.

Another factor to consider is the supply & demand side of the NBA free agency market. There would certainly be a decent of number of suitors for Tim if he was on the market. The Wizards, Bulls, Heat, Hawks, Hornets, Lakers, and potentially many other teams would try to sign him using any means possible (such as amnesty provisions, sign & trade, clearing cap space, etc.). It's safe to say Duncan would be able to select the team of his choice. Given that there would be a competitive market for his skills, I believe Tim would be able to sign a 1-year contract of $15M. He certainly has the talent and the ability to turn a playoff team into a championship contender, but at the same time he couldn't be the number one option on a team at this point in his career. A $15M salary would set him up as the perfect complementary piece for a team looking to become one of the best in the league.

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