While both of these teams are playing the same game of basketball, they are not playing the same brand of basketball.
Many say the individual talents of the Heat are superior to those of the Spurs (poor conclusions drawn from weak research imho), and while they might be right... there's a serious flaw in believing this means they are the favorite against the Spurs.
It seems pretty clear listening to James and Wade after last nights game they still believe they're the better team, and that they can win this series - and they can. But the odds are very long against them now.
As I see it, the only way the Heat can win games in this series is for them to get so hot they blow out the Spurs. They certainly have the ability to do this, but I don't believe they can do it to the tune of four wins and a NBA Title.
The main differences in this series are subtle... but they're BIG differences.
The Heat are a one trick fast break pony with a defense predicated on creating turnovers. Against every other team in the NBA this year that was just enough to get back to the Finals. But the Heat are not well suited to playing close games with the Spurs, and while they don't fall completely apart from the pressure... their execution is not consistent enough under high stress to win this series.
The Spurs are patient and flexible in the moment - during the game, and they are a great deal more confident and emotionally equipped to deal with close games or coming from behind.
The Heat are not able to withstand the paralytic force of nature Gregg Popovich's team brings to contest. The Spurs can beat the Heat offensively from 5 or 6 legitimate angles with success, and they flow from one to the other as effortlessly as you or I change our tee-shirt.
The truth is: Popovich already has LeBron and Co. talking to themselves. He's in their heads. Now I expect the Heat to handle this better than the Grizzlies did, but ultimately the confusion and despair of Zach Randolf is what awaits the Heat this off-season. Spurs in 5.