Why bench the big 3 for Game 6, when the Spurs have 2 shots to win the championship? 2 reasons.
1. the refs
2. Duncan is 37, Ginobili is 35, and Parker has a sore hamstring
1. The refs will influence game 6 in favor of the Heat. Why? To ensure a game 7 bonanza ratings for the NBA in David Stern's last year as commish. Doubt it? Remember game 6, Fakers vs Kings, when the Fakers shot 26 FT's in the 4th qtr? How about last year's game 6, Spurs vs Thunder, Spurs up 8 halfway thru the 3rd qtr when the following happens - Ginobili was called for 3 offensive fouls in the 2nd half, Duncan called for a moving pick when Fisher shoved him to the floor, Jackson getting a technical for looking at the Thunder bench, Westbrook hitting Jackson upside the head with such viciousness it looked intentional but no foul call?
2. The big 3 are old and injured. The notion that Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker can summon up enough strength to play effectively for 3 games in 5 nights has proven to be highly unlikely. 3 days off for the big 3, if necessary, would be extremely beneficial.
Let me clarify by putting percentages on my personal chances of a win.
With Big 3 = Game 5 - I gave a 75% chance, Game 6 - a 25% chance (due to poor refereeing), Game 7 - a 25% chance (due to Big 3 fatigue and exhaustion playing a 3rd game in 5 nights)
Without Big 3 in Game 6 = Game 5 - 75% chance, Game 6 - a 5% chance, Game 7 - a 75% chance (big 3 with 3 days rest, a neutrally officiated game due to all eyeballs on it for a Game 7 last game of the year, no one having beaten the Heat 2 games in a row in the past 60? games, and the Spurs being a better team)
Game 6 would have the same short 8 man rotation, but with Splitter, Bonner, Leonard, Green, and De Colo starting and Blair, Neal, McGrady as the only players off the bench. So, the Heat would still have to earn a win by expending energy.
Benching the big 3 would be unconventional and unexpected, but so is shooting more corner 3 point shots, or sending the big 3 home in the regular season instead of playing them a 4th game in 5 nights in Miami. Would Stern fine the Spurs? Not if the Spurs say Parker-hamstring, Duncan-knee, Ginobili-back.
I truly believe that a 3 day rested big 3 and Diaw would be the most beneficial course of action for the Spurs to take to secure a 5th championship banner.