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State of the Spurs: It's called Defense- It's in the Dictionary Under D-E-F-E-N-S-E

Welcome to the fifth...or sixth installment of my State of the Spurs series. I'm not good at counting, so I'm not sure what number I'm at, but five or six sounds right (I may be wrong, but I doubt it). Anyway, if you've read the title, and have this annoying feeling in the back of your head, like a song that just won't leave, it's likely because it immediately brought to mind this commercial.

Star-divide

And you know what? Chuck ain't wrong. In a recent podcast, I said the Spurs had to be, if not the favorite, one of the favorites to come out of the Western Conference this season. I'm sticking by that, with the qualifier that we play up to the defensive standards of LWM- specifically the first five or six games of the win streak. If we play the defense of the fourth quarter against Detroit and the second half against Toronto, we'll get eliminated in the first round. I don't know if it's fatigue (likely) or reincorporating Manu Ginobili into the lineup (also likely) or just playing a couple teams that happened to get hot (not buying it this time). But with the Los Angeles Clippers on the schedule next, our defense is in for a tough test. They have the fifth most efficient offense in the league. The Spurs currently have the 15th ranked defense, according to hoopdata's efficiency stats. Again, the defense is ranked low partially because we've played some of the toughest offenses in the league, but that was not the case the previous two games. Detroit is the 28th most efficient offense and Toronto is 27th.

Zipview_php_medium
Turrible. Just turrible.
via covers.openlibrary.org

The Rodeo Road Trip, thus far, has been filled with games against less than stellar opposition. Even with the lighter schedule recently, we've still played the fifth toughest schedule, and it's about to get tougher. Starting Saturday, we play four games in six nights against the sixth, eighth, and fourteenth best teams in the league according to John Hollinger's power rankings. Personally, I'd rate Denver higher than fourteenth, but I'm not one of his machines. Point is, if we still have the league's longest active win streak this time next week, it will be time for all the naysayers to jump on the Spurs bandwagon. In fact, I'd argue if we win three of the four, the number of doubts we should have about the Spurs should continue to shrink.

As promised, here's a quick run down of our best five man units, courtesy of 82games.com. Arranged by minutes played together:

#
Unit
Min
Off
Def
+/-
W
L
Win%
1
Parker-Leonard-Jefferson-Blair-Duncan 182.9 0.98 0.97 +5 9 8
52.9
2
Parker-Neal-Jefferson-Blair-Duncan 80.3 1.17 0.95 +34 9 2
81.8
3
Parker-Green-Jefferson-Bonner-Splitter 48.8 1.05 0.87 +20 7 5
58.3
4
Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson-Blair-Duncan 46.6 1.12 1.01 +9 3 3
50.0
5
Parker-Green-Jefferson-Blair-Duncan 44.9 0.98 0.87 +14 4 3
57.1
6
Parker-Neal-Green-Bonner-Splitter 36.6 1.40 1.07 +22 6 4
60.0
7
Neal-Green-Jefferson-Bonner-Splitter 31.7 1.09 1.03 +0 5 4
55.5
8
Joseph-Neal-Green-Bonner-Splitter 26.3 1.13 1.02 +1 4 3
57.1
9
Parker-Green-Leonard-Bonner-Duncan 25.0 0.82 0.93 -5 3 4
42.8
10
Parker-Anderson-Jefferson-Blair-Duncan 23.3 0.98 1.00 -3 1 2
33.3
11
Neal-Anderson-Green-Bonner-Splitter 23.0 1.26 0.85 +19 2 0
100
12
Parker-Neal-Jefferson-Splitter-Duncan 22.4 0.98 1.33 -14 2 3
40.0

As you can see, our most effective lineup to date is Parker-Neal-Jefferson Blair-Duncan. The important numbers to note in this chart are the +/-, win%, and the off/def numbers. This caught me a little bit off guard. I expected the Splitter-Duncan lineup to fare better in the limutes they've played together. While they are better defensively, the Blair/Duncan frontcourt, when grouped with the same Parker-Neal-Jefferson backcourt, is significantly better offensively and has a better off/def differential.

I also expected to see Leonard involved in more of our most efficient lineups. He's done an excellent job in my eyes of covering other players' deficiencies. I think that Splitter/Bonner/Leonard lineups are especially interesting, because of how Leonard crashes the boards so Bonner isn't as heavily relied upon. Lineups like that, like most of the Spurs lineups this season, have lots of complementary pieces. It's one of the reasons I have confidence even though Bonner is averaging 20 minutes a game. Since we now have wings in Green and Leonard who rebound exceptionally well, and who play excellent help defense, and who block shots (Green is barely trailing Splitter in BPG), Bonner can stick to doing what he does best- shooting and hustling.

Next week: Depending on how these games go, I'll take a look at how reintegrating Manu is going, or I'll re-evaluate my optimism for the Spurs this season.

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Ooh, a table!
I love tables.

"Sometimes I think I lost something really important to me, and it turns out I already ate it."

by DrumsInTheDeep on Feb 17, 2012 11:05 AM CST reply actions  

:)

"Losing doesn't build character, losing just sucks. You know, sometimes though, you've got to lose in order to be able to enjoy winning" - Ben Wallace

by SpursfanSteve on Feb 17, 2012 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

The Tim-Tiago combo is surprisingly bad

"The key to keeping up with the rapidly moving threads is to completely ignore the game.

Hipuks 2/14/12
Spurs Yoda on Draft Night 2011

by Joe deLarios on Feb 17, 2012 11:15 AM CST reply actions  

I suspect that replacing either Neal or Jefferson with Manu would drastically improve that lineup…but it’s also important to note that there’s still been a relatively small sample size.

"Losing doesn't build character, losing just sucks. You know, sometimes though, you've got to lose in order to be able to enjoy winning" - Ben Wallace

by SpursfanSteve on Feb 17, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions  

I can see once good thing here: Bonner in the line-up fair pretty well!

It’s not +/- magic in my opinion anymore, the sample size is too big. I really think pairing him with Splitter is brilliant – No less!
The reasons are obvious, and actually work both ways, cause Tiago draws double-teams in the post and he is a good passer so he frees Red Rocket for threes, but it also works the other way cause Bonner with his reputation can’t be left alone allowing Tiago to work his post magic. They are just perfect together!

Defensively it’s not a huge issue either, unless we play the Lakers or Grizz, there is no another 2-big tandem in the entire league that Bonner can’t do a decent job on the lesser of the two. Consequently ALL of Bonner’s lineups have a terrific defensive rating![I also think that he is very under-rated defensively, he is very smart and he is fully aware of his disadvantages so he really tries hard]

by ironm8 on Feb 17, 2012 12:10 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

I think that if Joseph-Neal-Green-Bonner-Splitter have a positive rating then anything is possible.

by ironm8 on Feb 17, 2012 12:18 PM CST up reply actions  

that’s because the individual players in that lineup have super high +/-. Bonner, Green and Splitter. They pull up Joseph and Neal.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Feb 19, 2012 2:52 AM CST up reply actions  

Leonard/Bonner/Splitter lineups are becoming my favorites.

"Losing doesn't build character, losing just sucks. You know, sometimes though, you've got to lose in order to be able to enjoy winning" - Ben Wallace

by SpursfanSteve on Feb 17, 2012 12:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Yup, good things happens when they are together in the court

"He was just a young skinny guy who looked like a winner. We didn’t know he was going to be as good as he is."
—Popovich on Manu Ginobili

by spursfan87 on Feb 17, 2012 1:56 PM CST up reply actions  

I want to see more Duncan-Tiago because in the playoff If we are going to make a run eventually we are going to face with a big team like the Lakers, Grizz, or even Minnesota (I dont want the Wolves to make the playoff, i have a bad feeling about them). I think the reason they are bad together is because of the lack of chemistry between them, this is probably where the lack of training camp has hurt us the most.

"He was just a young skinny guy who looked like a winner. We didn’t know he was going to be as good as he is."
—Popovich on Manu Ginobili

by spursfan87 on Feb 17, 2012 2:13 PM CST up reply actions  

no one can beat the Ivory Towers

Yo, I’m 6-11, but I just want to dribble through my legs and shoot jumpshots like a guard. - Marc Blucas on Tim Duncan

by TDzilla! on Feb 17, 2012 6:55 PM CST up reply actions  

It almost seems like when Manu’s in everyone loses their defensive integrity, like hey he’s reachin in and leaving his guy to try to make a steal why cant I.

AKA Anthony Teegarden

by bigtee34 on Feb 17, 2012 12:46 PM CST reply actions  

As good as his defense his, I suspect Kawaii’s win% takes a hit from generally being on the floor at the same time as the other team’s top offensive weapon.

by ChapRL on Feb 17, 2012 1:39 PM CST reply actions  

I am digging our second best squad:

Parker-Neal-Green-Bonner-Splitter

Can we get another chart posted after some games with Manu? Thank you sir

by RobertHorryRobertHorry on Feb 17, 2012 2:11 PM CST reply actions  

Was already thinking about that :)

"Losing doesn't build character, losing just sucks. You know, sometimes though, you've got to lose in order to be able to enjoy winning" - Ben Wallace

by SpursfanSteve on Feb 17, 2012 2:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Someone, i believe alamo suggested trade for Ilyasova, now hes starting and scored 23 lastnight. I know its only one game, but im sure Pop could do a lot more with this kid than Scott Skiles.

Do or do not! There is no try!

by Spurs Yoda on Feb 17, 2012 2:37 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

I think it was Edg5 that brought up Ilyasova and I suggested Blair and Anderson as a combination that might work to get him.

by Alamo on Feb 17, 2012 3:00 PM CST up reply actions  

Perhaps the most effective four man unit is Tiago, Bonner, Green and Neal. They’re included here particularly in lineups 6 and 11 in terms of minutes played together. It would help if Pop might increase the sample size for unit 11, the one that nearly beat Dallas in coming from behind. Visiting the 82games site, a second table gives more details. Unit 6 has one of the best eFG’s at .594 while giving up an eFGA of only .381, while unit 11 has a decent .500 eFG and an even lower eFGA of .325. Using the NBA’s stats for 4 man units, while the starting 4 of Blair, Duncan, Parker and Jefferson have the most minutes with 391 together and a +59; the Tiago, Bonner, Green and Neal combo have a +48 in only 135 minutes together.

by Alamo on Feb 17, 2012 2:50 PM CST reply actions  

Blair’s appearance in so many of the “top” units is merely a function of having played so many minutes together with Tony, Tim & RJ in various starting lineups along with various starting shooting guards. None of the units that mention here were not a starting lineup. None of the lineups with Blair have much of a point differential between the off and def numbers, with the #1 unit having a .98 to .97. That unit also has a .465 eFG to a .453 eFGA. Three of the units with Blair (including the two with the most minutes) have an eFGA of over .45, one with Manu drops to .427 and the final one with Green drops to .403 (though it’s own eFG is a mere .386).

by Alamo on Feb 17, 2012 3:15 PM CST up reply actions  

I think that we finally have found a couple of front court players that make Bonner valuable. Last season, Bonner only barely worked with Tim. Now we can play Tiago instead, and Kawhi also adds a lot of more value to what Bonner does.
We can post up Tiago or Tim, while Bonner opens space by standing in the 3 point line and Kawhi cuts to the rim and crashes the offensive board. Defensively, Leonard and Tiago/Tim can cover for all of Bonner deficiencies.
I love this team.

my mom (who doesnt know a lick about basketball): "that guy is anything but World Peace"

by Chilai on Feb 18, 2012 6:15 AM CST reply actions  

As much as Bonner isn’t a defensive player, I do have to say he has improved his defense this year. Never going to be a defensive player, but his help defense has been good this year. This is his best overall season.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Feb 19, 2012 2:53 AM CST up reply actions  

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