ESPN (Insider): Trades to improve Spurs' title odds

Just so there's no blatant plagiarizing, I broke it down a bit on what I think are the most salient points.

Future projections:
Chances of making the playoffs: 98.1 percent
Chances of winning the Southwest: 76.3
Chances of making the NBA Finals: 17.0
Chances of winning the NBA title: 6.0

Weaknesses:
Wing scoring (RJ)
Defense from the 4 spot (Blair, Bonner)
(In)consistency - "Consistency sounds like a good thing, but for a dark horse contender, it can actually be a detriment to pulling off playoff upsets... if you're a wannabe Cinderella, the numbers will tell you that your best strategy is to be a streaky team and just pray that you get hot at the right time. (For more of an explanation, click here.) The Spurs could use a hot-or-cold player who has the chance to catch fire and help deliver a key playoff win over the Oklahoma City Thunder or Miami Heat."

Deals:
"Fortunately for Spurs fans, they have a few tradable assets. Blair, Kawhi Leonard, Daniel Green, James Anderson, Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter are all skilled, young players who are expendable given the right deal. Here's a look at three deals that might help Tim Duncan win one for the thumb."

1) Bonner, Anderson and a first-round pick to Memphis for O.J. Mayo
"Mayo would add firepower off the bench. His addition might not help the defense but could turn San Antonio into the league's best offense."

2) Green and Anderson to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Anthony Randolph
"He blocks shots, rebounds and finishes at the rim. Even if Popovich has to get him to focus on defense, Randolph could cheaply become the power forward of the present and future for a Spurs team that needs a long and athletic player at the 4."

3) Bonner, Leonard and Anderson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Anderson Varejao
"If there's a perfect player to address the Spurs' immediate defensive deficiencies, it's Varejao. His mediocre offense is paired with the length, quickness and intelligence needed to check the elite power forwards out West."

3 months ago silverandblack_davis 21 comments 0 recs |

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Comments

Yeah, I posted this on from ST a few days ago. It doesn’t make sense for Varejao now that he’s hurt.

I would trade Anderson, Blair and our 1st. Everything else is off the table.

Do or do not! There is no try!

by Spurs Yoda on Feb 13, 2012 9:59 PM CST reply actions

and RJ, but no one would take his contract.

Do or do not! There is no try!

by Spurs Yoda on Feb 13, 2012 9:59 PM CST up reply actions

“Every ship but your four fastest you mean.”

The 2012 season: the Spurs have a chance, but only if Manu can be Manu in the playoffs. - CapHill
Pounding the Rock

by J.R. Wilco on Feb 14, 2012 4:02 PM CST up reply actions

Only option 2) is somewhat attractive. In general, the Spurs are just not a kind of team that improves through the trades. There are good reasons for that, like chemistry, pecking order, routine, habits. The Spurs can improve through draft and bringing in guys nobody else. wants. Bringing in Mayo is just laughable, it would be much more disruptive than anything else.

Both teams played hard

by Kondor on Feb 13, 2012 11:01 PM CST reply actions

Those are some bad trades.

1 – OJ Mayo would give a better scorer than the others, but I don’t think he’s that good. Spurs would be very crappy up front if their front line is Duncan/Splitter/Blair.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Feb 13, 2012 11:13 PM CST reply actions

2- Randolph is not worth it. he’s a headcase, someone who hasn’t done a thing in the league. You are giving up 2 good wings for an unsure thing.
3- If you are giving up Leonard, you are doing something wrong for what you get back. Small forward becomes a weakness once again.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Feb 13, 2012 11:14 PM CST reply actions

Edg5 mentioned Ilyasova the other day. Blair and Anderson would match up with the salary. That would sound better than any of these trades. It would seem fairly equal for both sides and should help both teams. I don’t know if the Spurs might need to add anything to sweeten the offer or not, but if the Spurs are getting rid of Anderson I’d rather he be in the East.

by Alamo on Feb 13, 2012 11:39 PM CST reply actions

I like it

Do or do not! There is no try!

by Spurs Yoda on Feb 14, 2012 10:13 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Not sure we need two Bonners.

The longest, brightest day is followed by the darkest night.

by Tim C. on Feb 14, 2012 10:45 AM CST up reply actions

At least going by statistics, he’s somewhat of a cross between Bonner and Blair. TRB% for Bonner 9.7%, Blair 14.8 and Ilyasova 18.9. Bonner’s a better 3 point shooter (Blair not at all). Ilyasova by far the best at blocked shots, Blair with an advantage at steals, but then Blair averages nearly double the number of PF per minute of Ilyasova. PERs Bonner 13.7, Blair 16.2 and Ilyasova 16.6.

by Alamo on Feb 14, 2012 11:14 AM CST up reply actions

To be fair, I haven’t seen much of Ilyasova this year. But in the past, he’s seemed like a tweener who can shoot and not much else. Maybe he’s improved(I love that rebound percentage).

The longest, brightest day is followed by the darkest night.

by Tim C. on Feb 14, 2012 11:40 AM CST up reply actions

He’s also in his contract year, so you know that you are going to get the best from him

"He was just a young skinny guy who looked like a winner. We didn’t know he was going to be as good as he is."
—Popovich on Manu Ginobili

by spursfan87 on Feb 14, 2012 12:03 PM CST up reply actions

It’s somewhat elevated this year with a smaller sample. Blair’s TRB% is better for his career (18.9), though it’s steadily dropped since his rookie year. Ilyasova’s has improved, with his biggest improvement this year being in offensive rebounds. His career DRB% being 21.2 vs. Blair’s 22.7, though for the season it is 26.0 vs. 16.3. For ORB% Ilysova’s career and season are 8.7/12.5, while Blair’s are 15.0/13.2.

by Alamo on Feb 14, 2012 12:07 PM CST up reply actions

He tries hard on D and has the length to bother his guy, unlike Bonner. I like Anderson and Blair for Ilyasova more than I like any of the trades the ESPN guy suggested. Those were some bad trades.

"Manu Ginobili is the ultimate human cheat code, the password to the rim."
-Alex Dewey

by Edg5 on Feb 14, 2012 4:25 PM CST up reply actions

Well, Bonner is way more versatile than Blair, at least for the Spurs.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Feb 14, 2012 11:49 AM CST up reply actions

I worry about his D, but other than that he seems like a decent option.

The longest, brightest day is followed by the darkest night.

by Tim C. on Feb 14, 2012 1:02 PM CST up reply actions

Spurs need to upgrade the front line, and they could use him, so even that would help a bit. Can’t hurt.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Feb 14, 2012 1:15 PM CST up reply actions

Id take the OJ deal

Odds are Anderson will never be nearly as good as Mayo, Bonner is a one dimensional player and (hopefully) our 1st round picks will still be in the late 20s.

Id do that in a heartbeat, especially as it seems JR Smith is taking the easy way out by going to South Beach or Lob City.

I would consider Leonard untouchable

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Feb 14, 2012 7:48 PM CST reply actions