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The Windmills of a quiet Work Day

You can get caught up in all kinds of hooplah, and hubris when you micro manage your way through an entire season as we serious fans tend to do.

Is the loss to the kings indicative of a gaping maw where our defense should reside?

Is Kevin Martin really that good or are we just that bad?

The three point shot? Can we hit it? Is this a trend or an aberration?

Its a weekly rollercoaster built upon the failures of certain players, the inadequacies of the team as a whole, and the strengths of our opponent, as much as it is upon our success.

Some call for heads to roll, others preach a steady hand. Some have monster trades in mind, foul beasts that stalk their nightmares feasting on the insecurities of poor pick and roll defence, bringing in the projects of other lesser GM's in the vain hope they turn into David Robinson mark 2.

With each progressive game we tend to shift our perspective a little more from column A to column B or vice versa.

Star-divide

Yet to me, this manic, condensed season, for all its hectic activity is but a bump upon the highway of love.

Personnel wise, the Spurs look locked in for 2012. The safe bet is that the ground will not shake this year in terms of trades and player movement. Barring a slew of injuries, and the blackest of regressions from our Big 3, from here on in we just have to play the games.

For my money, 2012 is all about youth and development. Not just because that’s the fastest way for us to improve our defence, and to best advance our cause in the playoffs. It’s also the best way for us to secure cap space, and bring in another quality big next season.

Kawhi Leonard is the tip of the spear in this regard. When or if Leonard gets it (it quiet possibly being a corner three pointer), and improves to the point that he can be trusted to start at SF next to Manu, RJ and his 9 Million bananas a season, becomes if not redundant, then a very, very, expensive low minute wing.

If we end up hitting RJ with the amnesty stick, our cap hold next year with Timmy off the books as well, falls from around $75 million to $40 million, even after exercising team options on DJB & James Anderson.

Timmy is the big card here. I’m going to go out on a limb here and state that first he doesn’t retire, and secondly he stays a spur. I know…In other news the sky is blue and frogs don’t bounce but I digress.

As a free agent, he is no longer Mr.22 Million. The way his minutes are so carefully managed he is probably not even MR.12 Million dollar man. He can hold the franchise up to a very bright light if he gets antsy about the numbers, and it’s hard to argue that he shouldn’t get paid. He deserves everything. He has been everything.

I get the feeling though that we really expect Timmy to take less. He has always been the ultimate servant to the game and the ball club. He defers when necessary, he coaches and mentors the rookies, he is staunch and supportive of the staff, he has Nerdy Tats, the guy is the epitome of a classy athlete.

For us as fans, he has always made the popular decision , and been the security blanket when games were tight. I believe there exists an unconscious expectation that he will literally give himself a lowball facial. Walk up to the Front office and say here I am at 4 Mill, come get me. The jury is out on the numbers. I know I wouldn’t leave 5 mill on the table for the sake of the spurs Noble enterprise. Will Timmy?

Timmys salary is hugely important as we enter the twilight Zone that defines a franchise that’s rebuilding but not really rebuilding. If he wants to contend the most assured way is to set the bar low money wise and let the Front office do the hard yards to bring in a better quality rotation. If he doesn't it makes life harder.

This whole cap space thing, opens up some really interesting scenarios. Not just with free agency. It also allows us should we be a member of the under the Cap club, to take part in any festive waiver wire bidding.

Theres a couple of bigs out there, miscast as franchise saviors and given unruly contracts, that I think may well be amnestied, and will be perfectly hip as 20 to 28 minute a game monsters at the low end of the payroll. Okafor and Haywood are two names that jump out at me immediately as Spurs friendly pickups.

In dallas Cuban is on a tear to have everyone on a 1 year contract this season, and have a crack at the big names in 2012. As a result, Haywoods almost a given to get the flick, he is playing a solid 24 mins a game on the Mavs but his job sharing with our beloved yet wayward son Ian Mahinmi (who still never saw a foul he wouldn’t commit to),and his contract is going to be around 9 Million a year for the next 3. He is a dead man walking in Dallas.

Okafor again is giving solid production as a defensive big, and would be a wonderful fit (ask Tiago how he felt on that dunk attempt), but New Orleans is not a contender, and are they really looking to suck down two more years and $27 million for no good reason. If the league didn’t own the team he’d probably have got the bums rush already this sesason.

Where does all this lead to? I’m not sure. Things will move at an exponential rate once this season is done. There has been a somewhat artificial suppression of player movement with the accelerated pre season following the lockout, and there will be some real activity prior to kickoff next season.

There are opportunities developing that would allow the spurs front office to cash in on the careful management of contract extensions and D league signings, and continue the purposeful youth movement we have born witness to the past few seasons. There are some exciting prospects on the team right now. There are superb vets. There are Matt Bonners. It is a cup full of potential.

What do we do with Danny Green? How much are we willing to pay for a Manu protégé when we already have a Manu? Ditto Dejaun. Is he part of the future? At what cost? Can James Anderson find his feet again? Will Matt Bonner finally publish the photos of Pop & that Danish hostess that keep him swimming in playing time year after year? There are some sensational storylines developing, with some big chips to fall one way or the other.

Comment 58 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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What? Haywood? ARE YOU SERIOUS?

Both teams played hard

by Kondor on Jan 25, 2012 2:00 AM CST reply actions  

My exact thought when I saw Haywood…

"If the NBA season is a marathon, Gregg Popovich is a full-blooded Kenyan."

-Timothy Varner 48MoH

by Jordan Leithart on Jan 25, 2012 3:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Of course. You realise if you grab him off amnesty for two mill you never have to see another minute of Bonner and Blair again.

Just a solid big to fill in the gaps. Best of all…mark Cuban pays the rest of his salary.

"When you go in for a job interview, I think a good thing to ask is if they ever press charges."

by Bushka on Jan 25, 2012 3:01 AM CST reply actions  

I agree with this completely. We wouldn’t be counting on him to start or even be the first big off the bench, so as your 4th big I say hell yes.

by Manuwar on Jan 25, 2012 4:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Timmy is nice, and would be willing to take a pay cut. But I dont think hes "Awe shucks, go on and gimme 4 Mill per year ! " kind of nice.

A man gets the eye of a Tiger, but a Tiger gets the eye of a Manu.

by alamobro on Jan 25, 2012 6:10 AM CST reply actions  

He’ll be $18 million poorer. The poor man’s gotta feed his family too

Yo, I’m 6-11, but I just want to dribble through my legs and shoot jumpshots like a guard. - Marc Blucas on Tim Duncan

by TDzilla! on Jan 25, 2012 6:59 AM CST up reply actions  

I think it would be more reasonable/ plausible to expect him to take about 8 million per year.

A man gets the eye of a Tiger, but a Tiger gets the eye of a Manu.

by alamobro on Jan 25, 2012 8:32 AM CST up reply actions  

As selfless as Timmy is, I would be disappointed in the Spurs’ front office if they didn’t give him his due in what is likely his final contract. Pay the man—he IS the Spurs.

"You may all go to hell, and I will go to Texas." -Davy Crockett
"Give me an army of West Point graduates, and I'll win a battle. Give me a handful of Texas Aggies, and I'll win a war." -Gen. George S. Patton

by Trey Felder on Jan 25, 2012 8:27 AM CST up reply actions  

Nice write up. Wrecked for well reasoned thoughts and looks at the future. I would love Okafor here and I would be ok with Haywood at the cheap price you mentioned above. I tend to doubt that either of those guys will be given the ax via amnesty. Quality…or even average bigs are at a premium in the league. I foresee those two and possibly other being traded rather than just taking them off with the amnesty clause.

by Big50 on Jan 25, 2012 9:24 AM CST reply actions  

One thing I forgot to mention is the foreign players aspect. Lorbek, DeColo, et al. I think those players might contribute more than most might think.

by Big50 on Jan 25, 2012 9:30 AM CST up reply actions  

I have my doubts about DeColo ever coming over. Lorbek, i think its pretty much strong change next season.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 25, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions  

It’s kind of interesting how Lorbek was not a Spurs draft choice but rather that his rights were sort of thrown in to the trade of Hill for Leonard, with Bertans also coming along for the ride. Oberto and Neal are a couple of past Euro free agents signed by the Spurs. So while the focus is often on foreign players the Spurs drafted, there’s no telling who else might be acquired. Then there’s also the various Spurs related players using Europe as their dleague, like Malik Hairston, Curtis Jerrells, James Gist, etc. (I expect they’re all still in Europe).

by Alamo on Jan 25, 2012 2:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I think since Spurs depth at wings is pretty good, the live of those guys, aside from Jerrells, since he plays some PG, is pretty much over.

I figure Spurs wanted those guys and somehow got Indy to pick them up for the Spurs in order to get Hill… Has the potential for a nice 3 for 1 deal.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 25, 2012 5:56 PM CST up reply actions  

I am SO intrigued by Lorbek, but I’m afraid he can’t play Spurs-level defense.

The 2012 season: the Spurs have a chance, but only if Manu can be Manu in the playoffs. - CapHill
Pounding the Rock

by J.R. Wilco on Jan 27, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Not like Blair or Bonner can…

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 27, 2012 2:34 PM CST up reply actions  

See what I did there…

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 27, 2012 2:35 PM CST up reply actions  

See….

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 27, 2012 2:35 PM CST up reply actions  

NO HAYWOOD.

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 2:10 PM CST reply actions  

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 2:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 2:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Not fouling is one of the most important aspects of the game- and Haywood is losing playing time to Ian because of it. He’s fat, he’s slow, he can’t do anything right anymore. He’s NOT a good defender like he used to be, and he was never the “elite defender” his reputation once made him out to be.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 2:14 PM CST up reply actions  

I didn’t know he had a reputation as an elite defender. You learn something new every day.

"If the NBA season is a marathon, Gregg Popovich is a full-blooded Kenyan."

-Timothy Varner 48MoH

by Jordan Leithart on Jan 25, 2012 3:25 PM CST up reply actions  

That was what got him his fat contract with Dallas…

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 3:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Se… I thought it was that Cuban overpays for everyone

"If the NBA season is a marathon, Gregg Popovich is a full-blooded Kenyan."

-Timothy Varner 48MoH

by Jordan Leithart on Jan 25, 2012 6:09 PM CST up reply actions  

He pretty much does, but a lot of times he just trades for the big contracts to try and get players as well.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 25, 2012 6:12 PM CST up reply actions  

He is a better defender than Dejuan and Matt Bonner, two guys we depend on. And we wonder why the Spurs can’t stop anyone

by Manuwar on Jan 25, 2012 4:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Than Bonner, probably. Than Dejuan, debatable.

Statistically speaking, he grabs 1 more defensive rebound per game, and blocks .6 more shots per game.

He’s got the lateral quickness of a cinder block.

Blair, though, has a higher shooting %, rebounds offensively better, assists more, and steals the ball at the same rate Haywood blocks shots.

He brings no intangibles to the team- not even the right kind of “toughness”. If you put Blair on the Mavs, I’ve got no doubt his rebounding would skyrocket.

In fact, in games against Dallas where both played 15+ minutes, Dejuan has averaged 23 points and 18 rebounds. Granted, it’s a small sample size because they’ve only got significant time against each other on three occasions- but one of those was the season Haywood finished top 5 in DPOY voting and Dejuan destroyed him for 27/23- with only two of his shots getting blocked.

Haywood is a borderline 4th or 5th big on a contender- he should definitely not start, and he should definitely not be the first big off the bench. Haywood is at best a slight upgrade over Erick Dampier.

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 5:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Being better than either of those guys isn’t saying much. And if Haywood isn’t better than Blair, then he’s in trouble, because Blair’s not got much either.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 25, 2012 5:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Blair is better overall than half the bigs in the NBA- he will likely never be an all star, but he’s one of the most productive role players in the league. He’s got a PER of 19.For comparisons sake, Duncan has a PER of 19.9, and Tiago (although his is moving up quickly) has a PER of 17.7

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 6:41 PM CST up reply actions  

He’s a good fantasy player/stat player, but his effectiveness on the court is not as good.

He can have monster games, but it really depends on matchups. Utah for instance is a good team for him to face, but Twolves, not so much..

+/- isn’t everything, but for the guys who play big minutes, overtime it does follow the trends. That’s why Manu dominates this and is at the top of the league a lot.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22011&split=9&team=Spurs

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 25, 2012 7:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Also, the Spurs pay Blair peanuts compared to most of those other guys.

He’s as cheap as can be. That has to matter for something this year.

The 2012 season: the Spurs have a chance, but only if Manu can be Manu in the playoffs. - CapHill
Pounding the Rock

by J.R. Wilco on Jan 27, 2012 2:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes, i’m not mad about his pay. I’d be if he were being paid near MLE… I have no problem with him on the team. I just don’t think he’s improved or changed that greatly. Offensively, he’s putting down more shots and is a lot more in tune so that he takes advantage of rolling to the basket. Offensively, he’s definitely improved. Defensively, he fouls less, but his changes are very small on that side.

He should sit down and watch hours of Chuck Hayes on D.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 27, 2012 2:37 PM CST up reply actions  

And PER doesn’t measure defensive effectiveness too well. Bowen is our perfect example of that….

Blair is a good offensive guy when he’s setup by great teammates. He pretty good passing inside, but he’s still very limited to certain parameters.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 25, 2012 7:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I’d say Bonner has better footwork, knowledge of what to do on D. He just can’t execute it because he almost doesn’t belong in the NBA with his body and abilities.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 25, 2012 6:02 PM CST up reply actions  

You forget Blair is an ignoramus and can’t be counted on to understand information when it’s not in tweeter-speak. And you are just wrong when you say Haywood is a borderline 4th or 5th big on a contending team; he was the first big off the bench last year for the Mavs and they won it all, right?

by Manuwar on Jan 25, 2012 6:44 PM CST up reply actions  

You forget Blair is an ignoramus and can’t be counted on to understand information when it’s not in tweeter-speak.

That, to me, doesn’t see as though you’re giving him a few more months to show his continued improvement, per our conversation. What do you think?

The 2012 season: the Spurs have a chance, but only if Manu can be Manu in the playoffs. - CapHill
Pounding the Rock

by J.R. Wilco on Jan 27, 2012 2:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Haywood averaged 15 minutes a game. In crunch time, the Mavs were more likely to play Dirk at the 5, Marion at the 4, and put Haywood’s useless butt on the bench.

Cinnamon and sugary as softly spoken lies, you never know just how you look through other peoples' eyes

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 27, 2012 5:59 PM CST up reply actions  

I’ll take Blair and Bonner over Haywood every day of a week.

Both teams played hard

by Kondor on Jan 26, 2012 2:06 AM CST up reply actions  

This was a really good write up, Bushka. I agreed with almost everything you said- although it would have been pretty good even had I disagreed.

Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.

by SpursfanSteve on Jan 25, 2012 2:18 PM CST reply actions  

Good read. Bushka. IMO Okafor has enough trade value that if the Hornets wanted him gone, they could probably get someone to take on his contract and send expirings and a pick back. Diop, Villanueva, Warwick or the aforementioned Haywood could be realistic options as far as amnesty candidates go. If Tim takes less and there’s cap room, maybe Odom? A guy can dream.

"Manu Ginobili is the ultimate human cheat code, the password to the rim."
-Alex Dewey

by Edg5 on Jan 25, 2012 4:13 PM CST reply actions  

I agree on Okafor’s value. Especially since Kwame Brown just got paid something like 9 million. Okafor is overpaid but not to the point where he is toxic and no one would trade for him. I would love it if the Hornets amnestied him but I don’t see it happening. But then again I have no clue where that franchise is headed right now so speculating on their future moves is nothing more than a wild guess for me.

I’d love to get Odom. I’m dreaming too.

by Manuwar on Jan 25, 2012 4:57 PM CST up reply actions  

I really hope Odom doesn’t go back to LA, but i can see him going back for cheap… Just not the Lakers… He’d get to stay in LA and not re-join the team that “betrayed him”

Diop would probably be the best pick up of that group. All the rest are too offensive hungry. Warrick has nice athleticism though.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 25, 2012 5:59 PM CST up reply actions  

I actually like our big men rotation this season. Here, I said it, you can kill me now and keep dreaming about Haywood and Villanueva.

Both teams played hard

by Kondor on Jan 26, 2012 2:09 AM CST reply actions  

*stab stab stab

hah :)

"When you go in for a job interview, I think a good thing to ask is if they ever press charges."

by Bushka on Jan 26, 2012 3:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Strangely enough, it’s working (when we don’t have foul trouble).

...as we find to our astonishment that we can still function, and even thrive within the chase. - Alex Dewey

by CapHill on Jan 26, 2012 4:57 PM CST up reply actions  

I would say it depends on the team. Against a team like the Twolves and OKC, it doesn’t work. Funny how that prior to Perkins and Nazr, the team didn’t have that advantage.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 26, 2012 5:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Not to brag or anything, but we beat Howard’s team @Orlando

Both teams played hard

by Kondor on Jan 27, 2012 1:33 AM CST up reply actions  

Yep. They did. Luckily Orlando was on the tail end of a back to back to back, was it? Spurs were too.

Spurs eeked it out though. But Orlando was +19 on the boards. Nothing to brag about there. Yes, Splitters should have played more.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 27, 2012 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

You sound like a glass-half-empty guy. That win was much better than our game @Orlando last season.

Both teams played hard

by Kondor on Jan 28, 2012 1:41 AM CST up reply actions  

I jump back and forth to try to be as balanced as possible. Depends on the day and what I saw…

I’d also argue that the Spurs, are doing very well despite all the big injuries they have and their road record isn’t as bad as it seems. And I’d say RJ is a different guy compared to previous seasons.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 28, 2012 3:32 AM CST up reply actions  

RJ is a different guy, Splitter is a different guy, this guy Green is a different guy. Unfortunately, Duncan is a different guy too.

Both teams played hard

by Kondor on Jan 28, 2012 9:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Well Duncan has been a different guy for the past few years. So that’s why.

The other 3 work though.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 28, 2012 4:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Big Fun looks like a different guy to me compared to a year ago. Not really different guy, just a different player. I don’t expect him to have a good game anymore on any given night. It’s nice when it happens, but it’s not expected.

Both teams played hard

by Kondor on Jan 29, 2012 6:24 PM CST up reply actions  

I think the formula is pretty set. If he had a night or two of rest before, he’s golden. Otherwise, he’s not. I’m hoping once TJ and Manu are back, Pop can go crazier with resting Duncan and ride Splitters some more.

It looks like he’s starting to see he can play with that idea.

Winter is coming

by grego21 on Jan 30, 2012 11:46 AM CST up reply actions  

I think this is a pretty reasonable expectation.

If he can get scoring from Manu it has to give him that opportunity for rest.

"When you go in for a job interview, I think a good thing to ask is if they ever press charges."

by Bushka on Jan 31, 2012 3:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Cap space? We’re actually going to have some? This abstract concept is foreign to me now, but I think I’ll learn to love it next offseason.

by The Big Fundamental on Jan 27, 2012 12:02 PM CST reply actions  

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