State of the Spurs: Analyzing Florida Road Trip
by SpursfanSteve on Jan 19, 2012 12:31 PM CST
in Analysis
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PrintWelcome to the first installment of what I've promised will be a semi-regular piece with analysis, predictions, and the occasional ratred and hage filled rant.
For this first installment, I'm going to talk about what I saw that went wrong in Miami.
I want to blame it all on the officiating. I really, really, do. And they did play some part in what happened. But officiating did not make our offense stop running pick and rolls with Parker/Duncan/Blair. Or Parker/Tiago/Blair. Foul trouble took Duncan and Tiago out of the game, and eventually Blair too, but the offense moved away from what was working well before that happened. We left the pick and roll while Duncan was still in the game and tried to Iso him against Chris Bosh and Joel Anthony. While it was obvious he got fouled and there were no calls on several of those possessions, that play hasn't been consistently efficient all year. We rarely returned to the pick and roll in the second half that I noticed- we ran more off the ball motion and isolations.
Our second unit was tentative at best, and it seemed like nobody wanted to take a shot. I've long been a defender of PtR's favorite non-defender, Matt Bonner, but he either needs to start shooting or we need to replace him. I know the majority will vote "replace him" but my vote is still on him shooting...if he starts soon. He's been in a funk to start the season, and we are not very far in, but the quickest way out of a funk is to shoot your way through it.
In the second half, our defense started showing signs that they were incapable of performing basic cognitive functions. Does anyone remember the last title we won, how it happened? What our offense was like? If you don't, I'll tell you. We had a dominant big man down low, and we passed him the ball. If teams double teamed him, he kicked it out to one of the hired three-point-shooting guns in our arsenal, and they drained an open 3. Orlando used this same tactic last year and the year they went to the finals. Know how to beat Orlando?
Don't double team Dwight Howard. That's how! Because if you double Dwight, instead of him attempting a contested two (or getting fouled, which considering his free throw's are shot at roughly the same percentage as contested two's is never a bad option) he will pass to a statistically sharp three point shooter, and they will score three points. The moral of this story is: don't double off of shooters. It's an axiom that we pounded the league for the better part of a decade.
Know what we did against Miami? We doubled off of shooters, allowing Mike Miller to go 6-6 from downtown. As someone who loves defense, I've never been more frustrated than I was in the second half of the Miami game.
Things I'm currently monitoring:
A. Blair's reaching habit, and whether it does more harm than good. What I'll be looking at specifically, here, is how many times he reaches and tips/steals the ball vs how many times his opponent scores after he tries that, but before Blair gets back in position, or if Blair fouls in the attempt to seal.
B. Matt Bonner's confidence- dude needs to start shooting. I'm still at the point where if he misses, it's OK for now...but you can't make a shot if you don't shoot, Matt.
Less dribbling and more shooting, Matt! -Please?
via 1.bp.blogspot.com
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I agree with your thoughts concerning Bonner. He has passed up a lot of open shots this year. Instead, he does his ‘shot fake, dribble, and waddle into the teeth of the defense’ move. When he waddles into the lane, nothing good happens. He’s not quick enough to keep in front of his defender, so the defense stays at home and his man recovers. Now we have Matt surrounded by defenders without a dribble. At best, it’s a waste of valuable shot clock time. He kicks it out and now we don’t have enough time to run anything; so we get a contested jumper out of it. He needs to shoot the three. Lord knows we don’t pay him $3.3 million to waddle into the paint.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
I actually like that he’s mixing up the drive. It’ll show up on the scouting report and force defenses to second guess themselves. I’d rather start now because defenses get tighter in the post season.
I don’t like when he fully rolls to the defense, but when he stops at about a 13-15 footer, I like that. His passing is decent and he usually doesn’t get stuck in the air when he passes at about that spot.
Winter is coming
He doesn’t get stuck in the air? Neither do penguins. It has to do with the penguin’s inability to jump.
If he is covered, he needs to pass first, drive second. But that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about all the threes he could have launched but did not. He’s been open with plenty of time to get his shot off and instead waits for the defender to get there. He needs to catch and shoot every time like he’s made 5 in a row. His slow shooting start has definitely increased his hesitancy to pull the trigger. He has to shoot when open. If he doesn’t, he’s not fulfilling his role.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
I’m not defending every case. He certainly has walked away from some he should have taken. However, when the defender is coming at him, I’d rather he get used to moving now, than experiment with it during the post season.
The season is for preparation for the post season. Spurs haven’t really done a good job at winning in the post season. Teams adapt, and Spurs need to have a little more variability since Duncan is not the old Duncan and Manu gets banged up with his style of play. Parker also can be Manuish, but usually has a spell, where the teams can stop him or his shot stops falling.
Winter is coming
Get used to moving? As far as I can remember, he’s been doing that since last season and it’s produced mix results.
by silverandblack_davis on Jan 19, 2012 7:29 PM CST up reply actions
Well, yes, it is his first season doing that. And now it continues. Hopefully it pays off more in the second season. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it right?
But unfortunately, it is broke since it stops working well in the post season, so try something new.
Winter is coming
Meh… He should just shoot when getting the ball and open. If the defender is running towards him and too close take at most two dribbles and either pass or shoot. That is all. Do not try to impersonate Tony Parker out there.
"If an expert says it can't be done, get another expert"
- DBG
Tonight, the role of Tony Parker will be played by … Matt Bonner! Seriously?
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
He doesn’t turn the ball over very much (as that cool story from last year showed) but the points per possession is what will show in the scouting report. And I guarantee you that the reason teams run at Bonner is that (especially after the way he shot the 3 last season) the Spurs are more dangerous with Winter Shoes behind the arc, than inside it.
The league has to know by this point that if you can chase Bon-Bon off the arc, then you’ve won the possession. Good things happen less often when he dribbles instead of shoots.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
You know why he doesnt have many TOs? Because he is blessed by the gods. He drives, gets stuck, the ball hoovers magically all over the court evading every opposing players fingers and it lands in Spurs hand with 3 seconds in the shot clock.
"If an expert says it can't be done, get another expert"
- DBG
Yes, but I’d also argue the offense does this with other players too, so it is not Bonner specific. It’s happened quite a bit this season.
Winter is coming
But Bonner’s been like that his entire career… more on this to come.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
They do, but Spurs need to mix it up a little bit, if they are going to use him. Otherwise, he becomes less useful, as defenses get tougher.
Winter is coming
I’m baffled why they don’t use him in pick-and-pop situations, have him shoot mid-range jumpers instead. Or is he really that limited to beyond the arc? In that case, we’ve gotten all we could from him.
by silverandblack_davis on Jan 19, 2012 7:31 PM CST up reply actions
I’m really unsure on this one. It would make sense, but then he’s not really a roller. He’s the opposite of Blair, but maybe the D would give up the roll because he wouldn’t be able to?
Winter is coming
Those questions… it’s like trying to find out what really is the meaning of life.
by silverandblack_davis on Jan 20, 2012 12:44 AM CST up reply actions
My guess is that it’s b/c he doesn’t have a jump shot (he really stays on this feet) and he has a slow release.
We use him on screens, I saw him setting picks on Saturday night, but he doesn’t generally set up immediately for a shot after them.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
Every time Matt Bonner dribbles, an angel says “What the hell are you doing? You’re Matt freaking Bonner!”
The longest, brightest day is followed by the darkest night.
Cursing angels, eh?
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
They seem to until April! Then they ignore him — or they get tired out.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
I’m not trying to make a case for Bonner playing more. I would like to see Malcolm get time now. I would like to see Blair play less when it’s just not working. I would like to see Tiago play more and Duncan less (so he can rest up).
I do think, during the regular season though, Spurs need to re-develop some of their abilities to make themselves less predictable. It was a different story when you knew what Duncan was going to do and he did it anyway. Outside of Manu (when healthy), no one has that abilities. Parker has that unstoppable ability, but once the D adjusts, Spurs usually can’t adjust to make Parker keep going since the team lacks those extra pieces.
Perhaps Green and Leonard gives them that extra little bit. However, they have so little experience. Perhaps Blair gets better on defense (smarter, decision making, boxing out) by the end of the season?
Winter is coming
I think we saw some of that predictability in Orlando. The 4th quarter was almost all Tony, then the last possession…was also Tony. So the defense had adjusted. Something else mixed in there might have gotten a better shot, and maybe won in regulation.
by SpursColoredGlasses on Jan 19, 2012 2:34 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Well, I’m for Bonner being more situational in his play. However, I’m also for him becoming more unpredictable. I’d rather the Spurs get it down during the season than he make it up during the post season.
I don’t mind him dribbling, but only if he has a fairly clear path. otherwise, I want him to do the Neal/RJ dribble and pull up for the 2pt shot.
Winter is coming
The thrust of this discussion is largely pro-Bonner. On the contrary, I believe it’s high time
after 5+ years to terminate the Bonner “experiment.” Why can’t people recognize a simple
fact? Caterpillars morph into butterflies, not frogs. Bonner will never even remotely resemble Robert Horry as an effective stretch “4” who can hit clutch shots, defend, and
rebound. The fact that Bonner is well-liked within the organization and is a solid citizen
should be totally irrelevant. This team desperately needs more physicality and defense
at the “4” (and of course a healthy Big Three) if it’s going to seriously challenge for a title.
That’s easy to say, and probably somewhat true, but how do you fix the problem? It’s easy to say that we need the next Robert Horry, but it’s not easy to just go get that guy.
I still think that Leonard, once he’s developed into a complete player, will more closely resemble Horry than Bowen.
Assuming that his 3 point shot continues to come around.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
I think that’s a really good observation.
Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.
by SpursfanSteve on Jan 23, 2012 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
Please provide some examples of these “stretch 4s” that can be brought over that resemble Robert Horry.
I think Aldridge could fit in. Oh wait…
Winter is coming
A stretch 4 made sense when Duncan was Duncan…prowling the low block. It doesnt make sense anymore…Duncan has moved mostly to the perimeter. We need a dominant center now.
Keep the faith!!
We need Roy Hibbert. :)
The best PF forward to ever play the game. Period.
by bluesteelxvii on Jan 19, 2012 9:22 PM CST up reply actions
I know this is off-topic, but does anyone have a profile on ProjectSpurs.com? Because I need help telling off an idiotic Mavs fan.
"D'oh!"
I’m not suggesting that we can go out and magically locate another Robert Horry. But in
the interim, Bonner is definitely not the solution. I shudder every time he comes in.
I agree with grego21 that Splitter should be playing heavier minutes and the Thomas kid
should be given some time, but given Pop’s history, this is not likely to happen. I might
even sacrifice some size and play Leonard in certain situations at the “4.”
What is the solution though? Spurs need spacing to run their offense. Thomas is not a quick solution at the moment. Tiago doesn’t space them. And he’s better for spelling Duncan so that the defense doesn’t fall off.
Blair’s defense is not likely going to change over night.
I’m all for Spurs big small ball, this year, but they do give up something…
Winter is coming
I agree. If he can stay in the game, he’ll be better.
The best PF forward to ever play the game. Period.
by bluesteelxvii on Jan 19, 2012 9:25 PM CST up reply actions
I cringe when Bonner dribbles. My 12yo daughter immediately says, “dont dribble”. He needs to develop what RJ occassionally does: fake, a dribble and a long two.
"Why didn't we draft Julyan Stone?" TJ73
by TrooperJoe73 on Jan 19, 2012 2:51 PM CST via mobile reply actions
It seems like Everybody is doing a buzzerbeater vs the mavs, we need to do that, when is the next game vs the mavs?
Bonner MUST shoot. Even if he misses, the threat of him pulling the trigger will stretch defenses. Without him shooting, it becomes 4 on 5 on the offensive end.
"You may all go to hell, and I will go to Texas." -Davy Crockett
"Give me an army of West Point graduates, and I'll win a battle. Give me a handful of Texas Aggies, and I'll win a war." -Gen. George S. Patton
Just play Tiago more
"He was just a young skinny guy who looked like a winner. We didn’t know he was going to be as good as he is."
—Popovich on Manu Ginobili
He needs to learn to avoid picking up some stupid fouls so he can stay on the court (with the exception of the Miami game where breathing got you a foul).
Winter is coming
He has been not getting fouls if I remember the stats correctly.
"If the NBA season is a marathon, Gregg Popovich is a full-blooded Kenyan."
-Timothy Varner 48MoH
by Jordan Leithart on Jan 19, 2012 3:58 PM CST up reply actions
He’s been ok, but sometimes his fouling comes at bad times which just pulls him out of the momentum of his playing time. Now, I don’t account that to all his lack of playing time, but it does contribute a little bit.
If I predict correctly, he should play 20+ against the Kings, unless something goes wrong.
Winter is coming
He’s not a foul magnet, which means that the refs will get used to him and his reputation as a “good defender” will eventually help him get the calls.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
They really are, aren’t they?
I told him I’m personally driving up to OKC and slapping him with a breach of contract lawsuit.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
As long as you first slap him with a velvet glove.
"Sometimes I think I lost something really important to me, and it turns out I already ate it."
by DrumsInTheDeep on Jan 19, 2012 5:11 PM CST up reply actions
The only velvet glove I have is plaid. So, if necessary, I was going to go with my black velour one, and hope no one notices.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
Is the breach that I made all excellent points, or that I don’t make them enough?
Also, anything you made me sign while under the influence of Mrs Wilco’s cooking should be null and void. I was clearly not capable of thinking rationally at that point.
Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.
by SpursfanSteve on Jan 19, 2012 9:38 PM CST up reply actions
The suit was conditional.
What I SHOULD have said is that I’d drive up there if you didn’t keep posting this kind of piece, because they’re so good.
No one on the planet plays lockdown D like Matty B.. - Matthew Tynan
Pounding the Rock
I’ve noticed Bonner passing up open shots but mostly I think the scouting report is out on him and it’s shocking that it took even this long. Just run the guy off the the three-point line and you win. He won’t create for anyone else. He just gets into no-mans-land and does this awkward upper body turn without pivoting looking for someone five feet beyond the three point line to bail him out. And then Tony or someone else is forced to hurry and create something one-on-one.
Good post SpursfanSteve. I like the little tidbit about Blair’s reaching. I usually don’t like when players reach because it compromises their defensive position but in Blairs case he will always be at a compromised defensive position because of his height so why not gamble? At least this is my preliminary thinking. Seems good in theory but I’m going to watch his defensive possessions closely the next few games too.
This is a good problem, looking at the bigger picture. Spurs need to find ways to help him get his shot off or make adjustments to make the teams pay. This is why the Spurs have had troubles in the past few post seasons. Their main go to offense is shut down, and you can’t ride Duncan the same way.
Obviously, it turns into a bad problem if Spurs can’t figure out a way. In some ways, this is why it is good that Manu is out. They need to learn to be different. Sucks that Ford also went down though..
Winter is coming
It never stops amazing me how much attention people pay to Bonner. His most important function for the Spurs may be being a scapegoat for everything which is going wrong with the team. He didn’t really play all that much this season, and he had some good games and some bad games. Both Blair and even GOAT Tim Duncan had some pretty bad games as well. In particular, Tim turned ball over rather often this season, and he also had games where he couldn’t buy a basket. Duncan’s game is more important for our team than Bonner’s. Of course, we are stuck with Duncan. We also kind of stuck with Bonner, because there is no evident trade scenario that would bring us a better quality big. I also think that Bonner’s attitude does have value for the team. There is a good reason why FO consistently brings good character guys to San Antonio.
Both teams played hard
What I don’t understand about Miami game is why Pop didn’t use “Hack-LeBrak” strategy. Miami couldn’t miss from 3pt territory, and giving them 1-2 points instead of 3 and disrupting their offense woud probably benefit in this case. Of course, it is mostly hindsight, but it’s still pretty remarkable how inept the team looked in that dreadful 3rd quarter.
Both teams played hard
I seriously doubt Utah will trade its most promising young prospect + starting point guard for an aging Parker. But if they would, you do that trade. You lose a bit at the point, but gain a guy who can actually play in the post on both ends.
The longest, brightest day is followed by the darkest night.
No, you don’t. Devin Harris has not improved at all since he got traded from Dallas. That would be absolutely horrible- especially with Manu out. We’d go from definitely in the playoffs to a borderline playoff team.
Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.
by SpursfanSteve on Jan 20, 2012 10:09 AM CST up reply actions
Well, I guess I’m coming at this from the perspective of thinking the Spurs have almost no chance at winning a title this year, so having a very nice building block for the future(Favors) appeals to me a lot more than Harris, obviously. And if Harris is really that bad, you can try attracting a FA point guard in the summer, when you have more money to spend(after amnestying one of Harris or RJ).
The longest, brightest day is followed by the darkest night.
Although Parker is limited for a few more years, he can help be the bridge between the old crew leaving and the new crew taking over. Beyond loyalty, I think that factor alone makes it that you don’t want to move Parker, unless you really are sure on what you are getting.
Harris is what you take back because, but is Favors worth it, is the big question?
Honestly, at that point, it is almost not worth retaining Duncan’s services if not for real cheap, from that “almost no chance at championship” perspective.
I’m not trying to take a side, but essentially, Favors would wave the flag in one direction.
Winter is coming
Well, Duncan is the franchise, so you don’t trade him unless he wants it. Even though I love Tony, I would understand if the team traded him(or even Manu, but it’d have to be a hell of a trade) in an attempt to better secure a long-term winning future.
The longest, brightest day is followed by the darkest night.
I’d probably stop being a fan if they did anything but let TD retire whenever he wanted to.
I’m just saying, that for them to anything that drastic, Duncan would have to buy in. And I doubt he wants to give up.
In a sense, loyalty is going to get in the way of winning. Not that I’m complaining, but this is the case.
Winter is coming
I’m fine with loyalty getting in the way of winning, too. It would be incredibly weird seeing Tony with a different team. I don’t pretend to know the Spurs FO’s approach, but with their obvious interest in Favors at the draft combine a couple years ago, and the Tony trade rumors getting louder seemingly every year, I don’t think the Spurs turn down this proposal.
The longest, brightest day is followed by the darkest night.
Harris is absolute Crap. If he keeps playing like this he is going to end up as a bench warmer. Seriously, its a shame we as spurs fans take Parker for granted and dont apreciate him enough.
"Kevin Garnett once described defending Tim Duncan as "trying to guard a tree"
We can’t amnesty a player we trade for- and even with RJ’s less than stellar performances over the past few games, if you amnesty him, you’ve got to replace that production. Sure, Kawhi has been great, but if we don’t have Tony, then we need BOTH of them producing at a high level.
I’ll be honest, I haven’t seen much of Favors. But I find it troubling that someone who can “actually play in the post on both ends” can’t get more than 20 minutes a game on a team in the middle of a youth movement/rebuilding process. It seems that if the Jazz were really that high on him, they’d be moving Jefferson/Millsap to make room for him.
Also, his averages so far this year are no better than Blair’s rookie season. Actually, aside from his blocks, Blair’s rookie averages are better across the board- in two minutes fewer per game.
Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.
by SpursfanSteve on Jan 20, 2012 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Also, regardless of Leonard, the team has depth at the wings. Losing RJ and not replacing them starts to make them weak. Now, if Butler can develop in Austin, that makes the story a little bit different. Green will likely require a pay bump as well.
Utah is an interesting case. It will be tough to get a real read on Favors. NJ was a bad situation for him and Utah is just weird. I think he’ll be good, but I’d not want to gain him and lose Parker.
Winter is coming
I think we need a poll to check the pulse of PTR. I would like to know how many of the pounders think Spurs will win it all this year.
Keep the faith!!
I think they have a chance. This season has enough unpredictably and injuries to even out the playing field a tad. Although that does give a slight advantage to the East.
Winter is coming
I agree. Because this season is so crazy and injuries are taking their toll on every team, the Spurs have a chance, but only if Manu can be Manu in the playoffs.
That’s where the blessing in disguise might come about.
Youngins get play time. Leonard and Green are really feasting off of this. Green has shown he can be a spark and if he’s under 20 minutes a game, that should be effective. Leonard is just awesome.
Then Manu, who seems to be a magnet for injuries the past few years. He avoids a lot of wear and tear. Honestly, I’d rather he get his one injury of the year over with earlier, rather than later.
My hope is less reliance on Manu so he can take nights off, even when he is back. If he can give full effort, but in less minutes, that’ll benefit all.
In some ways (aside from TJ’s injury as well), this is a good thing, even if the record won’t be as pretty. A lot depends on how well Duncan’s minutes are managed.
Winter is coming
And I’ve found my new sig for the season.
The 2012 season: the Spurs have a chance, but only if Manu can be Manu in the playoffs. - CapHill
Pounding the Rock
Nice article!
Good analysis as always. And stimulated some good discussion as well. Pop, you listening?
Unfortunately, Matt handles the ball down low like me. Got to realize he’s not Tony. And if the plan is to have him penetrate instead of shooting, then we need to go to Plan B.
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