Game Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns

San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns
AT&T CenterJan. 15, 2012, 8 p.m. Spurs Time
TV: ESPN - RADIO: WOAI 1200 AM
Phoenix. The Suns. Our old buddies from the Valley. This season, I've been fortunate to be able to preview some games for PTR against some teams that our beloved Spurs have a lot of history with. To start, I did the second pre-season game against Houston.. Next, I had opening day against the Grizz. I think I have a Mavs game later this year. And, goodness, then there's the Suns. Where to begin?
They were on top of the league in the regular season about five years ago, during the Seven Seconds or Less era, only to run into a magical thing called defense in the West Finals. Then there was the 07 scorers table incident, Duncan's 3 at the end of Game 1 in 08, Ma$e's Christmas Day 3 later that year...and with exception to a few more... I think it's kind of been downhill from there. They got big revenge, sweeping the Spurs out of the 2010 semi's - how embarassing. Manu got injured against them last spring, correct?
And now, I gotta rant for a bit, sorry all. Let me put on my Sam Kinison beret for a second. I'll be first to tell you, as if it isn't noticeable enough already, that I'm not so great when it comes to breaking down the finer aspects of the game - like matchups, points in the paint, who's faster than who, back to back game road winning percentages, and who plays better if we bring Bonner of the bench when DeJuan doesn't change his socks for three days.* I will leave that to you folks, the much more intelligent members of PTR. But one area of our team that absolutely must get better before it gets any worse is their darn free throw shooting! Let's make 'em tonight! If there's one way I wish our guys would be more like the Suns, or dare I say it - even the Mavericks, Steve Nash or Dirk Nowitzki - it's how they all shoot free throws. Per hoopdata, the Suns are the 3rd best free throw shooting team in the NBA - and I highly doubt this will change by tonight - at just under 80%. The Mavs are 12th at 75.4%. The Spurs are 21st overall (10th in the West), at 72%. Every team in the Southwest Division, with the exception of Memphis, beats them at the line.

The Western teams with worse free throw percentages are the Clippers, Grizzlies, Jazz, Warriors, and Timberwolves. Two of those five teams might make the playoffs. We saw first hand Tuesday in the closing moments against Houston (who also may not make the playoffs) - and countless other times - just how key those extra points can be down the stretch. For the record, we missed only 5 free throws in that game. But when you only shoot 17, and 3 of the misses come at a critical point...you get the idea. It might have sealed the victory, and prevented overtime, or it night not have, we'll never know. But, I prefer to err on the side of caution. And given our teams current health and age, I have a feeling we're going to need every one of these close wins. I cannot stress this enough. Putting on my coaching hat for a second - and stacked on top of a Kinison beret this'll look pretty goofy, I know - free throw shooting is something I'd make every player practice everyday. Steve Nash is a career .904 shooter from the line for a reason - and he's said it numerous times - because he practices a rhythm, daily. Dirk, .877 for his career, is the same way. It's a guaranteed 3 - or 4, because he can hit three pointers - point play if he get's an And-1. He can do it in his sleep. And it's a difference maker. Through 11 games our two best free throw shooters (Manu, and TJ) are injured. Four of our starters (Tim, RJ, Blair, Neal) are below 68%.
Phoenix, who has started the exact same lineup every game through their first 10, has one starter at .588 (Gortat). Dare I say, with the rest of the other regulars pulling their load, and given Gotat's other strengths, this is actually acceptable! All others are above .727. Dallas is just as good. The only player who has started all 11 games this season with a bad percentage is Brendan Haywood, at .419. Yea, news to you too, right? Dirk, Marion, VC, Delonte, and Kidd are all above 78%! I'm jealous! Now I get that 10 and 11 games is not long into a season, but this has been fairly consistent for...long enough. If there's a time to nip this in the budd, this is it. Remember we're down a few key players? I don't care who you are, how much money you make, how much you play - or how little. If you're on my team, you will make free throws - 100 of them everyday before you leave - or you're fined - and benched. Until it's like drinking water - or in Pop's case, drinking wine. And you only get 125 attempts. That'd put you at 80%. Yea, upping the stakes, eh? That's Coach Ed's rule. And here comes Coach Ed's pink slip. Can I at least keep my hats?
Bottom line, if the Spurs get better in this area, the wins will come somewhat easier, they'll be by larger margins, and our losses will be by lesser margins. Our shot selection, and theirs will be different at the end of games, ultimately effecting the final plays. I'm not saying it's the answer to all of life's problems, but I do believe it is a step in the right direction. I know we can do this tonight. Let's rock.

*I have no evidence that any of this is true, although, I am definitely an advocate of changing your socks on a daily basis. But to each his own.
UPDATE: Both Hill and Nash are day to day, and may not start tonight.
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Lineups
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Lineups
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NBA Stats Cube Lineup Comparison Here. Suns perspective can be found here: Bright Side of the Sun.
As always Tony must dominate Fisher, and NBA league pass is recommended for those who are willing to pony up the cash. Almost every Spurs game will be broadcast there, which is especially helpful for those of us who aren't in the San Antonio area. Please don't post links to illegal game feeds in the game thread. Links to illegal feeds are not permitted on SBNation, but you can probably find them out there on the internets if you're resourceful and desperate.
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GSG!
"I'm good at killing fat boys. I like killing fat boys." ~Arya Stark
by Ayatollah on Jan 15, 2012 1:20 AM CST reply actions 5 recs
That….was…amazing
"got him at 42……Chad Ford can’t keep up with RC ‘Bargin Basement’ Buford."
Spurs Yoda on Draft Night 2011
by Joe deLarios on Jan 15, 2012 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
I will NEVER get over that shot. Never.
"You may all go to hell, and I will go to Texas." -Davy Crockett
"Give me an army of West Point graduates, and I'll win a battle. Give me a handful of Texas Aggies, and I'll win a war." -Gen. George S. Patton
by Trey Felder on Jan 15, 2012 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
I will never forget that game. Ever.
by TX2NC on Jan 15, 2012 3:58 PM CST via Android app up reply actions
Neal isn’t going to start anymore. I doubt Leonard has lost the role, especially now that Neal appears to be back up PG.
Winter is coming
agreed. Leonard is most likely starting
"got him at 42……Chad Ford can’t keep up with RC ‘Bargin Basement’ Buford."
Spurs Yoda on Draft Night 2011
by Joe deLarios on Jan 15, 2012 10:34 AM CST up reply actions
In their defense, free throws….
RJ is 9/14 in 12 games.
Neal 3/6 in 7 games.
Blair and Duncan are different stories. They have a higher free throw potential, and definitely need to improve what they do since they get more opportunities. Parker needs to hit a higher rate too And leonard is going to have to improve it because I see him getting to the line much more as the season goes by.
Winter is coming
PG: Advantage Suns, should be interesting between Nash and Parker as both can score, both pass well, and neither plays above average defense. Nash is a model of consistency though, and Parker still struggles to get his mid-range to drop.
SG: Advantage Suns. I’m doing this as Leonard vs. Hill. With Hill starting at 2, Pop will most assuredly be placing Leonard on him. Leonard could learn a lot from Hill as Hill is a lot like him. Leonard’s youth and energy will make this matchup incredibly close, but Hill’s experience and veteran savvy give him the edge.
SF: Advantage Spurs. Frye’s an interesting option at the 3, but RJ’s speed and athleticism might be too much for Frye. I expect Leonard to get rotated on Frye on quite a few occasions. I just don’t like Frye for the 3 spot. RJamnesty, I think, will have a big game.
PF: Advantage Spurs. Tim Duncan will probably play more on and against Gortat, so I’ll do this as such. Gortat is a good big, especially on defense. Duncan will have fits trying to score on him, however I think Gortat will do even worse trying to score on the GOATPUFF. Duncan’s D gives him the edge.
C: Advantage Spurs. So with Duncan on Gortat, we now get Blair on Dudley. Two smaller, athletic bigs square off. Dudley’s shooting is intimidating, but Blair’s sheer size and strength are going to be too much for Dudley.
Bench: Advantage Spurs. Warrick and Lopez are a good bench big duo, in fact why one of these two isn’t starting over Dudley is beyond me. However, I firmly believe Danny Green will have a huge game and I think Splitter gets double digits again tonight. Also be on the lookout for James Anderson. If there was ever a game for him to get it right, this is it.
"That’s one thing I’ve been wanted to discuss with you. I’ve never mentioned my Orange Fanta crush…" - lullaby
"As long as you’ve known kaizer? That’s like being friends with Lady Gaga and never mentioning that you like to dress up!" - J.R. Wilco
Suns starters, FYI:
PG- Nash
SG- Dudley/Redd
SF- Hill
PF- Frye
C- Gortat
I know of no situation where Jared Dudley would play Center, and Frye has never played the 3. I see Frye and Gortat on Blair and Duncan. Not sure what the combination will be.
Crashing the [message] boards from the swamps of Louisiana, and blogging Phoenix Suns!
I see no situation where Ike Diogu will be getting manhandled by a guy in street clothes. But i’ve been surprised before.
Though Phoenix might have used the same lineup for 10 games, they didn’t the last game. Nash sat out due to his back, replaced by Ronnie Price. Grant Hill also sat out with sore quadriceps with Shannon Brown taking his place. Maybe Nash and Hill were simply resting for the Spurs. Doesn’t Dudley play SG?
Over at Bright Side of the Sun, they are calling for Robin Lopez to handle his business against Ike Diogu….I understand not following every team’s roster movements closely, but if you’re going to write a game preview, make sure you know who’s on your opponents team.
got it. thanks for the heads up.
Crashing the [message] boards from the swamps of Louisiana, and blogging Phoenix Suns!
No reason to be hostile, bro.
Will argue against trading #45 until I am blue in the face and your eyes and ears are bleeding.
by SpursfanSteve on Jan 15, 2012 1:24 PM CST up reply actions
Perhaps he was feeling emboldened.
"Sometimes I think I lost something really important to me, and it turns out I already ate it."
by DrumsInTheDeep on Jan 15, 2012 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
ha!
"Old tigers, sensing their end, are at their most fierce" - Sean Connery
by Dark Black on Jan 15, 2012 6:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Good luck tonight.
"If the NBA season is a marathon, Gregg Popovich is a full-blooded Kenyan."
-Timothy Varner 48MoH
by Jordan Leithart on Jan 15, 2012 2:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Have you noticed that we preview writers are pretty bad at keeping up with the opposing teams lineups. Give the other preview writers a little bit of slack. They’re trying their best just as we are.
"If the NBA season is a marathon, Gregg Popovich is a full-blooded Kenyan."
-Timothy Varner 48MoH
by Jordan Leithart on Jan 15, 2012 2:35 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
sorry guys, i need to have more respect. I just love beating the Suns. but i need to stay classy. Sorry PHXgp. just stupid on my part.
no worries. I always appreciate technical corrections, rather than harassment, via email. Keep up the good work PtR.
Crashing the [message] boards from the swamps of Louisiana, and blogging Phoenix Suns!
i just would like to say even though the game will be on ESPN tonight, for those who want to listen to Bill and Sean, it will be on FSNSW as well. just figured i would mention that since it wasn’t listed on the preview, but a good write-up going into tonight’s game. :)
anyways, should be a good one tonight, but if Nash and Hill don’t play tonight, it might be a long night for the Suns. GO SPURS GO!
"You know the difference between you and me? I make this look GOOD." - Agent Jay, Men In Black
Man, a lot of votes for the Suns. 2NASHTY must have got some buddies to come over and sway the voting.
Spurs favored by 9 tonight. That’s about right. Can’t take the over, definitely not taking the under.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
Well if Nash and Hill are out tonight, I’m taking the over on that one. The Spurs should win by double digits.
"D'oh!"
Yeah, but it looks like they are playing. That’s what they’re saying on the Bright Side of the Sun, at least.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
Though they’d be playing while coming back from injuries, so that could be even worse for the Suns that if they just sat out the game. Will a Nash and Hill that are not entirely healthy be able to keep up with the Spurs? Has anyone mentioned the Suns are looking old?

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