I´ve run the 3 playoffs predictors (simulators) of ESPN and guess what .... it seems that the 3 are "tweaked" ...
and guess what ....
...tweaked against the SpursI ran the 3 simulators to see what they predict if the Lakers and Spurs meet at the WCF. I wanted to see 10 WCF beetween Spurs and Lakers in every 3 predictors(Current Standing predictor, Hollinger predictor and Accuscore predictor) so I´ve run a ton of predictions to get my 30 WCF beetween the Spurs and Lakers and here are the Results:
Current Standing predictor: 10 WCF Spurs-Lakers: Lakers won all 10
Hollinger predictor: 10 WCF Spurs-Lakers: Lakers won all 10
Accuscore predictor: 10 WCF Spurs-Lakers: Lakers won all 10
The first suspect thing is that in every of the 30 WCF, the chances of winning for every team were 50%. So it were like to flip a coin every single time this teams meet (the spurs and the lakers).
The second thing is this (and if you don´t know), the chances that only one team won all 30 games when you got 50% chance of win in every game is 1 in 1,073,741,824. So the predictors don´t want the Spurs to win a WCF against the "Mambas"
The number 1,073,741,824 came from multipling 30 times the number 2 showing us the chances to accomplish that awesome quantity of wins every time. (e-mail me if you want the math behind it)
I have no problem if the media writers wants a Lakers-Heat finals (because they´re bigger markets that lead to better ratings, sales, etc.), the problem is that the "predictors" are supossed to be "impartial" (mathematical) algorithms not "I-wish-LA-beat-the-Spurs-algorithms"
Go and see it for yourself at http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/predictions . Every time you reach a WCF beetween the Spurs and The Lakers, I bet you that every team got 50% chance of win that game and The lakers win it every time. Prove me wrong
Beloved PTR´s, what do you think ?
PD: I wish this thing escalates around other media to point this. And in our wildest dreams make ESPN "untweak" the predictors (simulators). OK PTRs, I will just keep dreamin´, because dreams don´t pay taxes .... yet.