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Game #72 Preview: Spurs @ Blazers - Do we have a chance?

This was the 39th picture of Wednesday's game.  And yes, I'm pretty sure the refs were going to call a foul on Neal for thinking about making Galinari look bad.

That was a gut-punch of a loss on Wednesday. We definitely missed having Duncan on the defensive end, as the Nuggets somehow willed convinced-the-refs-to-call-everything-on-the-Spurs-and-get-39-free-throws. Even with all the home-cooking that Ed Malloy induced, we had a chance to win this game, and if we had Duncan, I think we would have. The Spurs needed his offense in crunch time last night. We needed someone we could throw it down into and get a couple of layups. Too many perimeter jumpshots to end last game.

Tonight, we face one of the nemeses of the Spurs. Portland is a team that slows it way down on offense, playing late into the shot clock and getting their looks. Fortunately, for us they haven't been as potent offensively as they were last year, due to the fact that their star player Brandon Roy is only a shadow of his former self. This has allowed LaMarcus Aldridge to blossom into the talent they were expecting when they wrestled him from Chicago. Aldridge has definitely stepped up his game and deserved a spot on the All-Star roster. In case we forget, he torched the Spurs for 40 points last game we played in Portland.

Star-divide

The Spurs, again without the services of the GOATPUFF, are on the road again against a team that is over 70% winning at home. Could tonight be the second time this season that the Spurs have a losing streak? Will anyone that is in mainstream media ever realize that statistic? Will Tiago sparkle? Will the bench ever get into a positive +/- again? Let's look at the stats and find out.

 


 

Ptr_ambigram_white_on_black_medium
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trailblazers
Where: Rose Garden

When: March, 25, 2011 9:00 PM Spurs Time - Timezone Converter
Watch: FSSW


Auxcuadro_medium

By the Numbers

Data sources:
hoopdata.com | basketball-reference.com | John Hollinger's team stats

Category Offense
(rank)
Defense
(rank)
Efficiency Rating 109.1
(2nd)
102.0
(8th)
Rebound %
24.7
(22nd)
74.5
(t-11th)
Field Goal % 47.3
(5th)
45.3
(11th)
3-Point % 40.1
(1st)
37.2
(24th)
Free Throw %
77.1
(11th)
76.0
(12th)
Turnover %
12.96
(7th)
12.68
(23rd)
Assist %
59.34
(10th)
54.05
(4th)
Category Offense
(rank)
Defense
(rank)
Efficiency Rating 105.2
(t-12th)
103.7
(13th)
Rebound %
29.7
(4th)
72.5
(21st)
Field Goal % 44.7
(23rd)
46.8
(22nd)
3-Point % 34.6
(20th)
36.7
(21st)
Free Throw %
80.0
(3rd)
77.0
(20th)
Turnover %
12.69
(5th)
15.62
(2nd)
Assist %
58.61
(13th)
54.65
(5th)
Record Wins Losses
Overall 57 14
Conference 35 8
Division 10 4
Home 33 3
Away 24 11
     
Position Conference Division
Record 1st 1st
Lineups

Starters
PG: Tony Parker
SG: Manu Ginobili
SF: Richard Jefferson
PF: Antonio McDyess
C: Tiago Splitter

Key Bench Players
DeJuan Blair
Matt Bonner
Gary Neal
George Hill

Record Wins Losses
Overall 41
30
Conference 23 18
Division 8 5
Home 24 11
Away 16 20
     
Position Conference Division
Record 6th 3rd
Lineups

Starters
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Wesley Matthews
SF: Nicolas Batum
PF: Gerald Wallace
C: LaMarcus Aldridge

Key Bench Players
Marcus Camby
Brandon Roy
Rudy Fernandez
Patrick Mills

 

Matchup Analysis

 
Point Guard  

Shooting Guard
Small Forward  
Power Forward
  Center
Bench
Coach  
Intangibles
Mojo  
Winner

Starters

PG: Miller has defended Parker very well in the past.  While Parker still gets the Spur, I expect this matchup to be closer than people may think

SG: Manu has been playing well.  We need him to kick it into video game mode, like he did last year when Parker went down.  No more missed shots EVER!  Matthews is a very good player, but Manu takes the cake, I mean Spur).

SF: We all wanted Batum.  Kevin Pritchard stabbed us in the back.  I see both of these guys as equals at this point.

PF: Gerald Wallace is a dominant player.  He might be playing outside of his position, but he can destroy us.

C: LaMarcus scored 40 against us last time we were in Portland.  Tiago played well on Wednesday, but was too gassed to keep it up.  Here's to hoping that this matchup is closer than it seems, but I just don't see it.

Bench

Our bench can be fantastic.  Unfortunately, it's cause us to lose a couple of games recently, and allowed teams to get back into the game other days.  Until we dominate an opponent again, the opponent gets the Spur.

Coaching

Nate McMillan is a fine coach, but he's got nothing on Pop. Especially in March

Intangibles

They're playing at their home, where they are a very good team.  We are coming off a loss.

Mojo

Did you know that the Spurs are 12-1 on the game after a loss?  That gives us some serious mojo.

Prediction

If, and only if, we can keep them off the offensive glass, we win this game.  Unfortunately, I don't think we do it.  Blazers by 5

Key(s) to the Game

Key 1 - Defensive Rebounding!  Defensive Rebound!  Defensive Reb! D-Reb!

Key 2 - Bench has to beat their bench.  We need that spark, now more than ever.

Other Reading

Spurs

48 Minutes of Hell

Spurs Planet - Our old friend Wayne Vore is back, hating on Tiago

Project Spurs

Spurs Nation

OPPONENT

Blazer's Edge (SB Nation) - This was voted best blog on SB nation.  Of course, the only voter was from Portland and is a guest writer for the blog.  Take from that what you will.

Following Along

TV 

FSSW

Radio

WOAI 1200AM; Audio League Pass[streaming]

Online

As always, NBA league pass is recommended for those who are willing to pony up the cash.  Almost every Spurs game will be broadcast there, which is especially helpful for those of us who aren't in the San Antonio area.

Please don't post links to illegal game feeds in the game thread. Links to illegal feeds are not permitted on SBNation, but you can probably find them out there on the internets if you're resourceful and desperate. You can also shoot an email to poundingtherockmail@yahoo.com(IMPORTANT:  Please include your PtR username in the email for reference) for further assistance.

Comment 37 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

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Free Novak!
Go Tiago!
Free Bruno!
Go SPURS Go!

Gonna be astig for life!

by Ayatollah on Mar 25, 2011 5:27 AM CDT reply actions  

Amen.

"...he waved that towel and patted those butts like a pro..." - gunnin' gervin, in a full of poetry description of Brazilian dazzling beauty, Tiago Splitter.

by Argento on Mar 25, 2011 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

I hope Tiago plays inspired in this game. As a tribute, here’s Diana Krall with the Boy from Ipanema.

Yo, I’m 6-11, but I just want to dribble through my legs and shoot jumpshots like a guard. - Marc Blucas on Tim Duncan

by TDzilla! on Mar 25, 2011 5:34 AM CDT reply actions  

I think the Spurs would be better off, short term, with starting Blair over Splitter. Why? Because Blair is used to starting, and Splitter isn’t. So Blair would play better, even without playing alongside Duncan. McDyess is a savvy veteran, who has started a ton of games in his career. He would help Blair to play well, though obviously not as much as Duncan would.

Besides, it’s not like Splitter will be starting in the playoffs (barring injury) anyway. Letting him play off the bench, but with more minutes, would be less pressure and he would probably play better that way.

I’m sure Pop knows all of this. So he probably has an Ace up his sleeve. He probably wants to test Splitter by giving him the starting nod, and the pressure that he has from his teammates of perform up to par. If he pasts the test, maybe this will be good for him in the playoffs. Then, if Duncan, or another big is out with foul trouble and he has to come in late in the game, he won’t play like the 11th or 12th man he’s been all year. He’ll have this experience under his belt and hopefully the confidence of knowing that he can play well with the starters.
      With all that said, I have to say that I’m happy for Splitter to have this opportunity. I know he’s experienced and has played well under pressure in Europe. But being on a new team in a different, more challenging league means you have to prove yourself all over again.
Just remember, what he gains from this experience of starting for 5 games (or however long), may be more important than how he actually performs. We may not really know what he gains from this experience until he gives a post-game interview in the playoffs.

     I expect the Spurs to play well tonight and beat the Blazers. They have too many competitors and too much talent for this to not be at least, a close game. Plus, just maybe the Blazers will feel too good about their chances knowing that Duncan is out. Hopefully that translates into a less than perfect effort from L. Aldridge. I always felt like whenver he played against Duncan, it would bring out the best in him.

We know Pop will not let up on his guys. It will be interesting to see how much intensity Nate’s guys have. Considering they have one of the toughest schedules remaining ( Us twice, OKC twice, plus Dallas, Lakers, @Utah and @ N.O.), it will not be easy for them to maintain the # 6 seed.

I for one hope they do not fall all the way to # 8. I would rather face N.O. or the Rockets and see Portland matched up vs. L.A. in round one.

by SpursfanNrome on Mar 25, 2011 6:10 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Splitter, though, is an actual center. Starting him with McDyess made more sense, while starting Blair with Duncan or McDyess with Duncan made sense. I know our system makes bigs pretty interchangeable, but it’s the position that Splitter is best at playing. I’m perfectly OK with him starting over Blair under these circumstances.

Free Steve Novak

by SpursfanSteve on Mar 25, 2011 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

Free Steve Novak,

Good point. That makes a lot of sense.
I can’t wait to see this game. I didn’t watch the last one.

by SpursfanNrome on Mar 25, 2011 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

::sigh:: I’m just going to write James Anderson off for the remainder of 2011. It looks like Pop has settled on his “playoff rotation” and James doesn’t appear to be a factor in it at all. A shame because I really liked his energy and what he brought to the second unit in his brief November stint. But it’s not his fault. Happenstance just played a part in diminishing James’ time on the court. With the lockout likely lasting throughout the summer, I hope he finds a way to stay sharp and in shape in preparation for a “debut redux” next season.

by transgojobot on Mar 25, 2011 8:47 AM CDT reply actions  

Yeah I hope he doesn’t get discouraged but instead gets motivated to improve his skills and individual game. I still believe he can be a solid starter. Like Splitter, he just needs more experience with his teammates and against opponents in the N.B.A.

by SpursfanNrome on Mar 25, 2011 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

We’re missing the most important part of the preview: Parker needs to dominate Fisher.

by tuxedo on Mar 25, 2011 8:51 AM CDT reply actions  

Rec….heebie jeebies.

by indiancharlie on Mar 25, 2011 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

The Spurs will win the game tonight if the guys play hard and Pop dosen’t go small. In the fourth if Blair is our C and Neal is defending Aldridge, Blazers win!

by spurlover on Mar 25, 2011 10:22 AM CDT reply actions  

Agree. I would like to see Splitter/Blair starting, “the future” frontcourt

by spursfan21 on Mar 25, 2011 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

Do we have a chance?

Hell yeah! We lost the first game in Portland because Miller & Matthews outplayed the trio of Parker/Hill/Neal. If that happens again, we lose again regardless of how well Aldridge is defended. Aldridge had a career game but the only Spur to have a good game was Manu. Still, the Spurs led throughout but lost in the 4th.

Keep Aldridge around 28 points, Neal keeps doing his thing, and Tony dominates for stretches as he should and Spurs win tonight. I look forward to Tiago staying out of foul trouble and utilizing his quickness to put some pressure on Aldridge’s outside shot.

- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
- I vow to never again mention "playoffs" and "49ers" together until we have a "quarterback."
- You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Mar 25, 2011 10:49 AM CDT reply actions  

Our guards did not get outplayed in Denver. Neal was the leading scorer with 25 points Manu had 20 and Parker had 19 points. We lost to Denver cause Pop went small in the fourth and Martin started rebounding everything. We got out rebounded in the fourth and couldn’t protect the basket. Martin had 8 rebounds Gallinari had 7 and Nene had 10. McDyess had 12 rebounds and the only other Spur to come close to double digit rebounds was Splitter with 7 and he was on the court for most of the second half. The same will happen tonight if we go small against Portland.

by spurlover on Mar 25, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry meant to say Splitter Wasn’t on the court for most of the second half.

by spurlover on Mar 25, 2011 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

And I do agree with this. When we went up early in the 4th, I’d have liked Splitter to come back in when defense was more important than offense. I guess Pop expected our guys to maintain the lead and he wanted Splitter for the final five minutes to preserve the win. Unfortunately by then we’d fallen behind.

- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
- I vow to never again mention "playoffs" and "49ers" together until we have a "quarterback."
- You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Mar 25, 2011 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

We lost the first game in Portland

We’re talking about different things.

- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
- I vow to never again mention "playoffs" and "49ers" together until we have a "quarterback."
- You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Mar 25, 2011 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry still PISSED off about the loss in Denver we should have won that game but NOOOO lets give them the game and go small I was screaming at the TV put a bigger lineup in Pop they are killing us the boards! sorry.

by spurlover on Mar 25, 2011 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

I got ya. I want to be more angry about the loss, and would be if we had the record of the Mavs or worse. I certainly will be more foul about it if we lose tonight. A win tonight and then in Memphis will allow me to put this Denver loss in the same throw away bag as the earlier loss in Portland was followed by back to back wins at LAL & Sac.

- Thank you SF Giants for an incredible 2010 season and painting the City orange & black!
- I vow to never again mention "playoffs" and "49ers" together until we have a "quarterback."
- You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on Mar 25, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

True I guess I should look at it that way.

by spurlover on Mar 25, 2011 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

Still I hate it when we lose a game we should have won, just cause Pop feels like playing Guards on 7 foot centers.

by spurlover on Mar 25, 2011 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

We stumbled after our biggest adversity of the season. I hope they have settled down and rise to the occasion as a team. Let’s get this one in Portland! GSG!

by TD21 on Mar 25, 2011 12:18 PM CDT reply actions  

Keys to the Game:

1.WE WELD STUFF, THEY DON’T
2.REP THE TONE, BROCHINSKIS
3. PLAY BONNER AND BLAIR WITH NOVAK SO THEIR DEFENSE DOESN’T KNOW WHAT TO DO
4. WELD 1-3 TOGETHER SO WE CAN REPWELDSHOOTTHREESTOOOOOOOONNNNNNEEEEEEEEEE

Free Steve Novak

by SpursfanSteve on Mar 25, 2011 12:25 PM CDT reply actions  

3. PLAY BONNER AND BLAIR WITH NOVAK SO THEIR DEFENSE DOESN’T KNOW WHAT TO DO

EPIC!

by rank on Mar 25, 2011 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

I LIKE THAT.

Gonna be astig for life!

by Ayatollah on Mar 25, 2011 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

I told a friend of mine during the 4th quarter of the Thuggets game that I was hoping Pop would rotate these three in together at least for a while, but Pop, for strategic reasons of his own, saw it differently.

"Do something stupid and you’re going to regret it but, for God’s sake, don’t stand there and do nothing at all." - hirschof

by the old photog on Mar 25, 2011 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

1.WE WELD STUFF, THEY DON’T

That should be the key to every game.

"Resentments are the rocket fuel that lives in the tip of my sabre."- Charlie Sheen

by Hipuks on Mar 26, 2011 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

I like too it still gives us a decent sized front court.

by spurlover on Mar 25, 2011 12:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Do we have a chance?

Vegas has us at 4.5 point underdogs. That sounds pretty bad but it’s the second most likely road upset on the night (behind Detroit at Cleveland).

I expect it to be close, at least! And the Spurs have been excellent at closing games out this year. Just not last game.

"SMH!!! ITS THAT BAD IMMA A BEAST LOL!!!!" - DeJuan45

by greyberger on Mar 25, 2011 2:47 PM CDT reply actions  

looking at the stats

I would suggest the following keys to the game:

1). Offensive rebounds
2). Assists
3). 3 point shooting

I’m sure what the Blazers desperately want is a blowout against a top notch team like the Spurs. Blazers struggled most of the season to eke out what victories they got by a few points, lately they’ve had a couple blowouts against bad teams and played competitively against good teams, along with an occasional stinker or two.

After a few games of getting his bearings, Gerald Wallace is fully plugged into the team now. Brandon Roy has shown sparks of his old self, but more often, sparks of a new far less effective post-injury Brandon.

I’d love to predict the game but I think it is a crapshoot. Dominating win by Spurs wouldn’t surprise me a bit. The other way around wouldn’t surprise me either. Nor would a nail biter.

by LanceS on Mar 25, 2011 6:57 PM CDT reply actions  

another

Another key to the game, clutch play down the stretch. Blazers are vastly better on that score than they were a couple months ago, but they recently got Kobied and I wouldn’t be shocked if they get Ginoblied.

by LanceS on Mar 25, 2011 7:01 PM CDT reply actions  

Pop should put Blair back in the starting lineup when Duncan comes back. Dice is too big of a spark, the bench lacks punch now that he’s a starter. (Unless a certain matchup necessitates Dice start, like a series against Dallas)

A man gets the eye of a Tiger, but a Tiger gets the eye of a Manu.

by alamobro on Mar 25, 2011 8:35 PM CDT reply actions  

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