It's been entirely too long since I last nerded myself out to you guys. Think of me as the nerd version of Lindsay Lohan. Simply replace the lesbian sex and recreational drug use with statistics and wild predictions and you're there.
At first glance, the schedule seemed ominous. It's flooded with back to back (to backs) and scary, youthful teams from the West. My first thought was, "We might miss the playoffs."
But there are many factors that could potentially swing games that should be considered. If we are playing a back to back, it's a bummer every time, but the bummer may not be as painful if our opponent was in Miami the night before.
Similarly, if the Spurs had the previous night off and it's our opponent's second game of a back to back, the first of which took place in Dallas, bummer for them. In addition, if this is a Spurs home game and the team we are talking about is the pitiful Minnesota Timberwolves, we win that game 85% of the time, right?
In order to derive our 2012 team wins, I created a database. The goal of the database was to provide ample data to help me arrive at a reasonable "Fred's Scariness of Game Score," FSOGS.
Click through so that my chart pops up. Now, follow along as I explain the logic. Home court advantage, our opponent's rank, back to back (to backs), and the teams that we played in the first game of the back to back all factor in to my FSOGS. The higher the FSGOS, the scarier the team and the less likely the Spurs are to win the game.
I ranked every team in the NBA on a scale of 1 to 5, click through to see this list. This rank is the main component of FSOGS. FSOGS = Home Court Advantage + Opp. Rank + 1st Game of B2B Opp. Rank - Opp 1st Game of B2B Opp Rank - 3rd Game of B2B2B Penalty.
Once I had my FSOGS, I decided that the Spurs should win 85% of the games it plays with an FSOGS of 2 or less. The Spurs should win 50% of the games that have an FSOGS of 3, 25% of 4, 20% of 5, and 10% of games with an FSOGS of 6 or higher. So, in effect, I just gave each game a percent of a win. I added all these percents up and that is how I arrived at my 38 games.
It's a little confusing at first, but let me help you out with an example. On January 5th the Spurs play Dallas. (+5 for Dallas' rank, FSOGS = 5) This game will be in San Antonio. (-1 for Home-court Advantage, FSOGS = 4) The night before, the Spurs play the Warriors. (+2 for GS's rank, FSOGS = 6) However, Dallas also plays the night before against Phoenix. (-2 for Phoenix's rank, FSOGS = 4) This is not the third game of a B2B2B, so no penalty. The FSOGS for this game is a 4. I have the Spurs winning a game with a FSOGS of 4 25% of the time. So my win total is increased by .25 for this game. Now, do this jig 65 more times and you'll get to my 38 wins.
I think 38 is a reasonable number. At 38 wins and 28 losses, the Spurs' winning percentage equates to 58%. Given last year's winning percentages, this would put us in the sixth spot. Feels about right, right?