Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

On Harsh Realities

3184324672_b4081a1f05_medium

There's no Santa. You can't fly. You won't always get what you want. Your parents are the tooth fairy. You will have to work for decades and by the time you retire you'll be too old to wakeboard. There may be no tomorrow. Depressed yet?

No? Then here we go: the Spurs are losing their series against the Suns 0-3. In the history of the NBA, no team has ever come back from such a deficit. Giving up seems logical, even humane. Building your wrecked Spurs identity piece by piece only for the Suns to smash it again would hurt, hurt again, hurt for no good reason. "Masochism" is the word of the day.

And yet I'm one of those fans that can't enter a game without hope. When the debate as to what sort of attitude supporters of a team in a hopeless situation ought to adopt, I'll choose denial and supreme confidence every time. I truly believe that realism is an offseason tool - a viewing glass that brings your team into the sharp contrast you need to escape the blurriness of fandom and find the flaws in your system, the chink in the armor.

It's not the offseason yet.

Star-divide

My Way Isn't Your Way

I'm not trying to call out the fans that have already given up on the Spurs. What works for me might not work for you. Realists have the benefit of being right - most of the time. A healthy distance from harsh realities is conducive to a long life. Look both sides before you cross the street, brush your teeth, and watch your weight.

We have three players who can't do anything but give their all every game. One of them, Tony Parker, is likely to be sidelined by the umpteenth injury we've had to deal with this season. Of the other two, Manu Ginobili has a larger-than-life nose broken in two parts, and Tim Duncan is older than Methuselah. How can you not root for them? How can you not believe, even if only a little, deep down, beneath all the caustic remarks and the sarcasm and the fatalism? Two, maybe three, all-time players want to win this with all their heart. Is it so impossible?

Of Bells and Outliers

Say there are no outside factors such as a common history, weak psyches or untested mettles. Or say they exist, and are contained by the problem at hand. Allow me to introduce a good-old Gauss bell:

Gauss-bell_medium

That bell is one of the most common elements in statistics and probability theory. It's used to describe variables that cluster around the mean, and can describe anything from shoe sizes to IQ, weight and height, and even the life of a light bulb. I might be speaking out of my derrière when I claim that it might be useful to describe the result of an NBA playoffs series, but Pounding the Rock isn't the place for hard facts. In any case, every probability function is based on the same principles: a) the further you are from the mean, the least likely an event is to happen, and b) the probability of any given result might be very small, but it's never zero.

History has proven the probability of a 0-3 comeback is very small. There have been 89 such 0-3 instances through the decades, and it's never happened. I'm ready to admit the smart money is on the Suns, and probably even the dumb money. However, the probability isn't zero, and until it is, I don't want to give up on my team.

I can assure you that most if not all of those 89 teams that couldn't come back didn't have Tim Duncan, they didn't have Manu Ginobili. The Spurs played some of their best basketball of the season without Tony Parker and facing poor odds, the danger of missing the playoffs altogether never far from their minds. As disheartening as three straight losses has been for us,every little disappointment we are forced to endure now will make victory that much sweeter, be it Sunday or next season. That's the beauty of sports.

Outliers are extreme deviations from the mean, statistical anomalies. For those of you who know me, I'm a dam engineer. Now, spillways are structures used to alleviate reservoirs during peak flows, and thus protect the dam itself. Considering how destructive a ruptured dam can be, spillways are nowadays designed to allow passage of a flow likely to occur once in 10.000 years. Yep, that's right, once in 10.000 freaking years. And you know what? It's happened. Some poor engineer woke up one day and found out that the flow coming through the river was the one that occurred once in 10.001 years. Bad day for him. And many others.

There're lots of time to think about the future, about next season. Right now, let's focus on being an outlier instead. Let's focus on being the unstoppable flood.

Once again, guys, let's make history.

Comment 84 comments  |  7 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Rec’d.

"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."

by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on May 8, 2010 3:09 PM CDT reply actions  

Haha, I love this picture. It brings back memories.

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on May 9, 2010 1:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

You used to be in a spaceship?

by 4Him on May 9, 2010 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

Oh darn, I’ve said too much.

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on May 9, 2010 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

Haha….I’ll definetly call TD, Manu and Tony players from outerworld if they pull this one off!

by spursfan_needs_counseling on May 9, 2010 10:24 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Its over

Can we now start the inevitable 2010 Tiago Splitter disappointment countdown?

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on May 8, 2010 3:13 PM CDT reply actions  

Rec’d. Lets do this, Leroy Jenkins style.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkCNJRfSZBU

or if you prefer the techno version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N6sqdrJzVo

Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis

by SpursfanSteve on May 8, 2010 3:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Leeeeeroy Jenkins… kudos to a fellow MMORPG! PWI and Allods here. =]

"Our bench gets incredibly dangerous..." -Emanuel Ginobili, benchman extraordinaire

by Hammersome on May 9, 2010 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

I want the Spurs to make history.

Go Spurs Go!

Going for "50"

by Nlclove on May 8, 2010 3:47 PM CDT reply actions  

Tim said during his interview, “We’re not going to back off. We’re not going to give up. We’re not going to lay down and let them take it.”

"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."

by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on May 8, 2010 3:58 PM CDT reply actions  

Excellent post. I was feeling down in the dumps last night walking through the parking lot after what felt like, not just a horrible loss, but an inevitable sweep. I couldn’t believe we started out another game with hustle and let it slip away again. I was feeling angry at first. I calmed down after a bit and now I’m back to believing we’re going to get the next game. You’re absolutely right. It’s not over yet. We can still do this. If we’ve learned anything this season about these Spurs is you never really know what’s going to happen. Don’t write them off yet!

Go Spurs Go!

by FANobili on May 8, 2010 4:09 PM CDT reply actions  

same feeling that i had,except i wasn’t in a parking lot or at the at&t center.

Ginobelieve!---That is Matt Bonner straight down the lane with the dunk,I repeat Matt Bonner down the lane with the dunk!LoL---NBA guy that recaps the games on NBA.com(Spurs-T'Wolves recap)---Manu is the god of basketball-write it down in your list of Greek gods.Zeus says its official---his a fan!

by tp_09 on May 9, 2010 6:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

Come and Take It

As a native Texas Chicano, I’m not much of a fan of the propaganda that passes for Texas history. But there was a battle in Gonzalez, Texas in 1835 where the Tejanos, fighting to keep a cannon that had been given them years earlier, came up with a slogan and flag that had a picture of the cannon on it and said: “Come and Take it.” That should be the Spurs battle cry ‘til the end. Maybe someone can find a pic of the flag and post it here. That’s beyond my tech knowledge. Sorry.
… then we’ll rant on Pop and company.

by agutierrez on May 8, 2010 4:10 PM CDT reply actions  

The Spurs - not playing defense anymore since 2009!

by Tim C. on May 8, 2010 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

+1 to both of you.

Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis

by SpursfanSteve on May 8, 2010 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

lol the Alamo is so overrated. It isn’t even the original structure.

Not that that has anything to do with your post.

Crashing the [message] boards from the heart of Spurs Nation, San Antonio, Texas. GO SUNS!

gruntledpainter on Twitter

by PHXgp on May 8, 2010 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

So then that would make you . . . irrelevant at best?

I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.

by Lauri on May 8, 2010 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

mmm no. It would make my post irrelevant. I’m very relevant, thank you.

Crashing the [message] boards from the heart of Spurs Nation, San Antonio, Texas. GO SUNS!

gruntledpainter on Twitter

by PHXgp on May 8, 2010 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I bet it’s pink, what do you think Lauri?

Timmy D .... enough said.

by Ms. Smith on May 8, 2010 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Our odds of winning are better than the odds of another Boba’ Gunoosh coming off the Sun’s bench & lighting us up for another 20+ points in the 4th.
We got Game 5….we’ll worry about the rest later.

If less is more, imagine how much more more would be

by JonnyJam on May 8, 2010 4:39 PM CDT reply actions  

oh yeah. We got Game 4 too. (narrowly miss reply fail)

If less is more, imagine how much more more would be

by JonnyJam on May 8, 2010 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

SA Express John Mac Donald reports from practice today: Manu says Spurs know no NBA team has overcome 3-0 hole: "I guess the odds are with us then. It’s got to happen once, right?"

"Ginobili. . .He's weaving, he's throwing up triple axels in sneakers, he's willing the ball into the basket. It's Cirque du Soleil with refs." Dan Oshinsky / KENS 5

by janieannie on May 8, 2010 4:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Make that Jeff MacDonald

"Ginobili. . .He's weaving, he's throwing up triple axels in sneakers, he's willing the ball into the basket. It's Cirque du Soleil with refs." Dan Oshinsky / KENS 5

by janieannie on May 8, 2010 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

I love the way Manu thinks!

Timmy D .... enough said.

by Ms. Smith on May 8, 2010 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

He comes every 10,000 years

"If an expert says it can't be done, get another expert"
- DBG

by LasEspuelas on May 8, 2010 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

TWSS.

I did a lot of soul searching. I didn't find anything.

by Hipuks on May 8, 2010 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

"He was just a young skinny guy who looked like a winner. We didn’t know he was going to be as good as he is."
—Popovich on Manu Ginobili

by spursfan87 on May 8, 2010 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Janie, I don’t tweet, don’t even text. Yeah I know showing my age or just how hardheaded I really am. I am going to his site to leave a message. I hope you all will do so as well, tweet Georgie and Blair as well.

I can’t go the game or I would be there helping to raise the roof. Couldn’t hurt to let our guys know we are still here.

Timmy D .... enough said.

by Ms. Smith on May 8, 2010 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Okay shows how often I have tried that, no can do. Guess I’ll give in and get text on my cell phone, just refuse to walk around looking at my phone with my thumbs going 90 mph, I’d run into a freaking wall!

Timmy D .... enough said.

by Ms. Smith on May 8, 2010 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

just like that spillway that only happen once in 10.000,so why not try it.hope manu will be fired up and do that thing.

Ginobelieve!---That is Matt Bonner straight down the lane with the dunk,I repeat Matt Bonner down the lane with the dunk!LoL---NBA guy that recaps the games on NBA.com(Spurs-T'Wolves recap)---Manu is the god of basketball-write it down in your list of Greek gods.Zeus says its official---his a fan!

by tp_09 on May 9, 2010 6:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

I do not quit in life and do not quit on my teams. This Spurs team has made the current season more difficult than it need be, but if any squad is capable of taking one small turn of direction and making a deficit such as this turn all the way around it is the group of leaders on this team.

Right now, small goals. Earn one home win. Then earn another win, giving Mr. Holt one more home date with gate receipts. Then earn another, three straight as they have done to us. Make it so that this series is still alive next Sunday. All the pressure is on us, for now, so turn the table of pressure over the next week. Two of the next three are home games so let’s start by not allowing a clinching on our floor. Right now, nothing to lose to play loose and make history, one game at a time. I’ve always felt this playoff run would be special for us and I still do. Keep pounding that rock.

Rec to you LD. This is where our collective minds should be.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on May 8, 2010 4:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Whoa, slow down, SO
Let’s not mention more than one game at a time.

The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !

by alamobro on May 8, 2010 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Focus on one game at a a time but have a vision that extends beyond Sunday. I would guess that the players are taking it one game at a time but also thinking in terms of making history at best, or returning to PHX at worst. Think big, alamo. I’m not letting a few awful stretches over a couple of games get my spirit too down. We’re only one game off the pace from where we needed to be.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on May 9, 2010 3:06 AM CDT up reply actions  

I hate to say this, but our bench sucks. That’s not fair or true. Our bench has merely been outplayed, upstaged by a couple of outlying performances by this seeming nemesis.

The guys who killed us in game 2 and 3? Barbosa, Dragic and Dudley.

Our bench is going to have to play big. A couple of guys will have to go “Dragic” in order to make this a 4 to 1 series. I think they have it in them. A Spurs victory is but a minute distance further from the mean than most of the Suns victories have been.

The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !

by alamobro on May 8, 2010 5:08 PM CDT reply actions  

Hate to disagree...

but the only outlier in those three names was Dragic going for 23 in the 4th last night (and he’s done it before, see 30+ against Utah). Dudley has been bringing the hustle all season, and Barbosa is finally getting comfortable again since his wrist injury.

"I should say something about Tim Duncan. The guy's hit two three-pointers in 10 years. You figure out who he's done that against."- Alvin Gentry

by JesusNinja13 on May 8, 2010 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Alamobro is correct. This could all even out by George Hill going for 29 (he’s done it this season) or Blair going 20 & 20 (done it twice). These are not likely to happen, particularly the latter, but in light of what the PHX bench has done it would not surprise me. And it would turn this series around.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on May 9, 2010 3:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

i agree.Tony Parker is the bench,period.Miracle if besides parker,mason having the brick wall finish and have his shot again,or blair having more minutes and get steals against ’a’m’a’r’e’,then have a miraculous 20-20 in the playoffs,and bon-bon playing well on the road,bogans shooting some timely threes and playing defense like he is paid and suppose to do,which he does actually.but yes our bench sucks,and i don’t know why,if you say phoenix bench first thing that crosses my mind is,defense(dudley),then energy(lou),then scola-esque by dragic,surely he can’t shoot like that again,but with 6 minutes for nash in ever other quarters except the 1st q,goran can definitely have the time but i guess like that flood,it may be once in 10.000 years.

Ginobelieve!---That is Matt Bonner straight down the lane with the dunk,I repeat Matt Bonner down the lane with the dunk!LoL---NBA guy that recaps the games on NBA.com(Spurs-T'Wolves recap)---Manu is the god of basketball-write it down in your list of Greek gods.Zeus says its official---his a fan!

by tp_09 on May 9, 2010 6:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

Just curious...

but would it be possible to have a pink and black out next game? Everyone go old school, wear the classy Spurs gear, and hold signs that say “Remember the Alamodome!!”?

Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis

by SpursfanSteve on May 8, 2010 5:27 PM CDT reply actions  

I think it would be terrific and I have been campaigning for them to do that since the playoffs began. Imaging each section of the arena draped in one of these three logo colors, running vertically….

http://www.emptythebench.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Spurs-Previous.gif

The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !

by alamobro on May 8, 2010 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

That would be an epic win.

Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis

by SpursfanSteve on May 8, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Anything except a white out. As was discussed here in the 1st round, white outs remind of innocence and weddings, not intimidating venues.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on May 9, 2010 3:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

The bright side of all this: Every single person on their team has had at least one awesome nights…

Doesn’t that mean that they have no-one left to give a super-awesome night, since everyone already pitched out theirs in games 1, 2, and 3? :D

by fanoftheunderdogs on May 8, 2010 5:29 PM CDT reply actions  

A’m’a’r’e hasnt gone off yet :\

Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis

by SpursfanSteve on May 8, 2010 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Apostrophe has not gone off yet by design.

 Maybe they need to let him go off and shut down the three point attack.

The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !

by alamobro on May 8, 2010 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’ll go for that. It’s worked before, and much better than the current strategy.

You gotta bring ass to get ass.

by SpurredOn on May 9, 2010 3:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

I’ve never liked the strategy. The Spurs have survived games where Stoudemire and Nash went bonkers because they keyed in on everyone else. This series it’s wound up liking chasing brush fires all over the court. I’d rather those two combine for 60-70 points than allow the Suns other capable offensive players to get quality looks.

Asked before the game how Parker has looked, Popovich said, "He’s still cute. "

by 0signal on May 9, 2010 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

Steve, if Amare goes off in Game 4, then I’m blaming you. :D

by fanoftheunderdogs on May 8, 2010 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

I say let him score 50, as long as we can hold them to under 50% shooting from three

The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !

by alamobro on May 8, 2010 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

yep. He’s always gone off in the past, we’ve always won in the past. See the pattern?

Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis

by SpursfanSteve on May 8, 2010 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

So if he goes off, we’re going to win? Awesome. :D

by fanoftheunderdogs on May 8, 2010 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

whoa now, i didnt say that. i just said thats the way history has been.

Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis

by SpursfanSteve on May 8, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well judging by the past 3 games, history isn’t going to repeat itself this time around…

by fanoftheunderdogs on May 8, 2010 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

That’s the spirit, LD! Go Spurs Go!!!!!

Honestly. You kids today, with your hippity-hop music and your Twiddle. - Lauri

by p2cat on May 8, 2010 5:36 PM CDT reply actions  

Im sorry Brosetta Brones

I want to believe, but something tells me thats just building my hopes up just for them to be destroyed into Broblivion

I still support the team, but

Its looking pretty bleak

Next game Earl Clarke goes for 35 and probably will end up 5 for 5 from the three

Suns Fans check their closets for Manu Ginobili Bro.

by SpursNumberUno on May 8, 2010 5:54 PM CDT reply actions  

You never know, bro.

Maybe the Spurs will put in a bromazing broformance.

by fanoftheunderdogs on May 8, 2010 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

As much as I Brope, it just seems imBrossible.

I dont realy think we have the personnel to do it.

RJ is a great player, but i just dont trust him for anything, and Brorge Hill is still a youngin

This will be a good learning experience for him

Suns Fans check their closets for Manu Ginobili Bro.

by SpursNumberUno on May 8, 2010 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

THERE’S NO SANTA CLAUS?

Evey- "Are you a crazy person?"
V- "I'm quite sure they'll say so."
V for Vendetta, blowing your mind away since 2005.

by KA1Z3R on May 8, 2010 6:13 PM CDT reply actions  

So our chances to win are one in ten thousand?

For me this makes everything rather easy. The series is lost, no pressure. The Spurs win, the Spurs lose, it won’t matter. So I’ll just watch the game for what it is, just a game.

I did a lot of soul searching. I didn't find anything.

by Hipuks on May 8, 2010 6:19 PM CDT reply actions  

Nope. Could be 1/90, though.

I smell death... everywhere.

by LatinD on May 8, 2010 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Kinda like the chances of us keeping a big lead.

I did a lot of soul searching. I didn't find anything.

by Hipuks on May 8, 2010 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Your sense of perspective unnerves me. For that I am grateful.

Asked before the game how Parker has looked, Popovich said, "He’s still cute. "

by 0signal on May 8, 2010 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Guys, if the Heat, excuse me the Dwyane Wade’s, can come back from a 2-0 hole and win 4, count them, FOUR in a row against a great maverick team in 2006, then certainly we can push this to a game 7. Then who knows. Unlike most teams who go down 3-0, this Spurs team is an awesome team. Not to mention how sweet it would be to once again be that thorn in the Sunds side.

by GoSpursGo32 on May 8, 2010 10:09 PM CDT reply actions  

lol!

"Our bench gets incredibly dangerous..." -Emanuel Ginobili, benchman extraordinaire

by Hammersome on May 9, 2010 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

oops…

"Our bench gets incredibly dangerous..." -Emanuel Ginobili, benchman extraordinaire

by Hammersome on May 9, 2010 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wasnt really addressing a post. Just saying what came to mind.

by GoSpursGo32 on May 9, 2010 1:32 AM CDT reply actions  

The "Charmed" Life

I just think it sucks that the Lakers are goin’ to skate thru the playoffs w/o havin’ to face Dallas, Denver, or the Spurs.
I can just hope to see another Cleveland collapse—-followed by another boring Lakers-Magic final

Peace
Love
Heaven

Whirly

by whirly on May 9, 2010 2:41 AM CDT reply actions  

call me crazy

we had a power failure here for 8 hours and the only thing that let the time fly so fast was thinking that san antonio is going to make history.and i know that its is very impossible hard to win but not impossible.first thought that came to me was that,we will tie the series and game 7 in phoenix,george hill will explode for 51 and 30 in the 4th q,and the spurs scoring 42 in the 4th,revenge against dragic,then will make it to history by being that only team out of 89 to win.that means,0.01%,1 out of 90, and its not a big number,but its a glimpse of hope that had me thinking,maybe yes we can,if we can have 3 losing streaks then go for a 4 winning streak,that might not be that bad after all as long as your opponent hasn’t won or doesn’t have a 4-0 record.but truth be told,this is the post season not the regular season.next thing that i thought or dreamed was san antonio winning against orlando in the finals,like the scenario in the 2005 finals,game 7 against detroit.the last histroy that we will write,winning the championship as the lowest seed,7th seed.if houston,6th seeded can make it,why not us?the only bad thing is that,i don’t know if they were down 2-1 or 2-0 or 1-0 in their series(es) that they had,but surely our scenario is different from them.i want to witness something,and i hope we all can.hopefully.

Ginobelieve!---That is Matt Bonner straight down the lane with the dunk,I repeat Matt Bonner down the lane with the dunk!LoL---NBA guy that recaps the games on NBA.com(Spurs-T'Wolves recap)---Manu is the god of basketball-write it down in your list of Greek gods.Zeus says its official---his a fan!

by tp_09 on May 9, 2010 6:06 AM CDT reply actions  

just what does "giving up on the team" actually mean?

i want the spurs to win.
i hope they win.
i will be cheering them on in game 4.
i think they will win game 4.
i believe that overall, they are the more skilled team.

and i think the series is lost.

does the last statement make me less of a fan? does it mean i’ve “quit” or “given up” on them? what exactly does that even mean? being realistic doesn’t mean i hope they lose (despite what i said after game 3), it doesn’t mean i don’t care that they’re down 3-0. those of us being realistic aren’t hurting any less because of whats happening. i want to be proven wrong. alas, i just don’t think its going to happen.

::shrug:: for me, the proof is in the pudding. and the pudding right now is on fire in the oven, and the firemen are on strike.

and as a side note, i find it curious that an appeal to statistics is made in a post talking about having blind faith in the team :P

free malik hairston!
perth wildcats - 2009/2010 nbl champions baby!

by sleep research facility on May 9, 2010 7:01 AM CDT reply actions  

I was of course trying to legitimize wild expectations by mentioning statistics. :)

I smell death... everywhere.

by LatinD on May 9, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

“I believed, I believe, I want to believe, and I will believe, what more do you want?”

Being a fan of any competitive sports team/person, especially the SA Spurs, is a high-risk/high-reward endeavor. Some times in the past, I’ve found myself holding back so that I won’t get too disappointed, but it usually backfires. If they win, it’s not as sweet. If they lose, you feel really bad about losing hope in them.

For whatever reason, I am more calm now than I was before Game 3. They’ve got nothing to lose except their pride. I’m not even thinking about a possible Game 5,6,7. I’m just thinking about Game 4 and all I really want is for the guys to lay it all out there tomorrow so that when all is said and done, they won’t have to say, “we could have done better.” That’s all I can really ask from them.

And as ridiculous as it might be, I still believe in this team. And as one SpursTalk poster once said, “If the Spurs are the Titanic, I’m going down with the ship.”

He's Manu Ginobili

by carina_gino20 on May 9, 2010 8:35 AM CDT reply actions  

Probabilistically speaking...

The 0-88 includes all series where one team was clearly superior to the other and would go on to sweep. You would think there is some subset of 3-0 series where the teams were relatively evenly matched, just one team got the breaks or hit the big shots. Just like if you flip a coin three times, there’s a 12.5% chance it’ll come up heads three times.

The optimistic Spurs fan’s view would be that we’re in that subset. The odds of a team winning four times in a row (assuming the teams are evenly matched) is 6.25%. Not great odds, but as LatinD points out, better than 0. Plus, most teams in that spot wouldn’t have players like Manu or TD with multiple rings, and be facing a team they’ve owned. For the sake of argument, let’s say the Spurs win game 4 and somehow steal game 5 in Phoenix. I’ve got to believe the Suns would be hearing footsteps at that point.

It is relevant that several teams have come back from down 3-0 to force a game 7; I think Denver might have done it against Utah in the 90s, and I definitely recall the Jail Blazers coming back against Dallas, I believe in 2003, to force a game 7. In fact, I remember that game was tied with 2 minutes to go, so if ‘Sheed or Scottie Pippen or whoever had gotten hot at the right time, they could have pulled it off. So just because it hasn’t happened, doesn’t mean that it can’t.

I guess I would say I haven’t given up hope, but it’s the same hope you have when you’re team is down 10 with a minute to go. You recognize that it’s extremely unlikely, but there’s always a chance. As Andy Dufresne says, “hope is a good thing, maybe the best of all things, and no good thing ever dies.”

by tomasito on May 9, 2010 1:54 PM CDT reply actions  

we owned Utah for 10 years and got 0-4 against them in regular season. we owned Phoenix almost for a decade in the playoffs and now 0-3 against them. this is just how this season goes for us. we beat our recent nemesis Dallas, but cannot win against teams we had a lot of success against recently.

Next season doesn't exist. Only today exists. So say we all.

by Kondor on May 9, 2010 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Suns fan here...

Awesome post. I am like you. It’s not over till it’s over. Good luck tonight.

by bmxican on May 9, 2010 4:27 PM CDT reply actions  

Vade retro, Satan!

"Our bench gets incredibly dangerous..." -Emanuel Ginobili, benchman extraordinaire

by Hammersome on May 9, 2010 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Genial LatinD. Un placer leer lo tuyo.

"Our bench gets incredibly dangerous..." -Emanuel Ginobili, benchman extraordinaire

by Hammersome on May 9, 2010 6:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the San Antonio Spurs.

Community Guidelines

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Tim-duncan_small
TY PtR! and Why I choose the Spurs!
Xthunderbird_small
Tumbleweeds, Tailfeathers, and Timmy!

Recent FanPosts

Ginobili_small
Friday 02-10-12 NBA on ESPN Game Thread
Manu-ginobili_small
Manu's Return: What We Ought To Expect
Photo_on_11-10-11_at_6
Spurs Off-season Priorities
Photo_on_11-10-11_at_6
2012 Free Agent Power Forwards
Nba_finals________small
Having (a little too much) fun during the Spurs winning streak
Artis_gilmore_small
Joe deLarios Advanced Box Score: San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers
Manu-ginobili_small
Why have our GREAT SCOUTS missed on this guy?
Nba_finals________small
How much should we enjoy Tim Duncan's waning years?
Photo_on_11-10-11_at_6
2012 Free Agent Centers
Artis_gilmore_small
Joe deLarios Advanced Box Score: San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Featured Poll

Poll
Predict the Spurs 2012 Rodeo Road Trip record

  594 votes | Results

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

quite a change : Manu Ready  
@Infomanu  in Twitter
Lets do this! Road trip!
Pop wants a timeout

Recent FanShots

Best post moves in the NBA, voted by the players.
Blinebury: Parker Continues to Shine
Tony Parker makes all starteam
Gregg Popovich looks like lock for NBA Coach of the Year
Questions I ask myself (The Big Fundamental)
ST: Ten Reasons Why Ginobili and Leonard Should Start
Tony Parker named to the Western Conference All-Star team
Hollinger: Watch out for the Spurs (Insider)
Missing FanPosts
Shooting Star

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


G.M.

Jrw_small J.R. Wilco

Coach

D-rob1_small Big50

Oberto_fab_small silverandblack_davis

Nerf_reactor_small CapHill

Screen_shot_2011-12-02_at_4 Josh Guyer (completely deck)

Player

08playoffshappybench_medium_small Justin Biehle

021_small transgojobot

Duncan_small SpursfanSteve

Manu_the_grey_small DrumsInTheDeep

376094_10100544199117568_16706926_51964808_1200814736_n_small MatthewTynan

Ref

Halloween_06_028_small alamobro