Playoff Minutes and Roster Changes 2010 Version

Last year, I wrote a fanpost, my very first, about what we needed to look for in the upcoming offseason by looking at who contributed in the playoffs.

You can read that post here or follow the jump for the 2010 updated version....

Really quickly to recap, a contributor is a player who played at least 10 minutes per game and played at least half of our games.

Last Year's Version Recap:

'09 Roster (First Round) 10 Contributors
-Manu (33), Horry (10), Barry (14), and Oberto (20),
+Bonner (20), Gooden (18), Mason (22),  Hill (19)

'10 Roster
-Gooden if not resigned (18), Bowen if boughtout or traded (26), Finley if boughtout (29) Bonner if hopefully traded (20), Udoka if not resigned(21)...?
+Manu(30's)...?

Being healthy (eyes on you Manu) is obviously the most important thing, but with the amount of minutes we are looking at cutting, we will need whoever we get to be a serious contributor by the playoffs.  We won with 8 contributors in '05 but with Duncan and Manu and even Parker to see less minutes, we need a solid 9 or 10 in the playoffs.

'10 Most Likely Contributors
Duncan, Parker, Manu, Hill, Mason

That is only 5 (and personally I hope Bowen doesn't get bought out even though I understand the value to the team it could mean)....Mason (22) and Hill (19) hopefully will be even bigger contributors next year as well as Finley (29) should see his minutes reduced if he is still on the team.

Of my 2010 subtractions, only Bonner stayed which makes sense.  I was just at peak anger at him when I wrote that following the Dallas series.  I was so wrong on Mason though.  It's too late to matter, but his hand injury has to be some sort of factor.

 Actual 2010 Contributor Change

'10 Roster (Lost Semis) 7 Contributors
-Finley (29), Bowen (26), Udoka (21), Thomas (16), Gooden (18), and Mason (22)
+Manu (35), Jefferson (33), McDyess (25)

Our 2010 Playoff Lineup with Comparison/Analysis

Our 7-Man Lineup of Contributors

Duncan (37): Same minutes he played in '07 when we won.  I think this number should be less.
Manu (35): The most he has ever played in the postseason as a Spur.  Should be closer to 32.
Parker (34):  Tied with his first two Spurs postseasons.  Perfect amount.
Hill (34):  Up from 19 last year.  He has to keep improving which I know he can, but he has to prove he deserves to start and take 34 playoff minutes.  He could play 40 mpg for all I care as long as he is playing well.  He hurt us bad against Phoenix but we wouldn't have beaten Dallas without him.
Jefferson (33):  When you look at his salary, 33 minutes and his production.  Crappy.  He is the only SF on this list though, and I think he played good defense and had some very solid games.  We're selling him short if we evaluate him on scoring only.  I don't think we can get more minutes out of him, but getting him a back-up could make his 25 to 34 mpg more effective.
McDyess (25): He really became a Spur to me in the playoffs.  25 minutes is low but he is old.  I don't like how much we paid him, but it's hard to argue with his value as a championship piece.
Bonner (17): Down 3 minutes per game from last year.  I'd like to see him a little lower but he is also the lowest contributor which is where I would put him in the rotation.  This speaks to the depth below him more than Bonner himself.

Non-Contributors

Mason (10):  Down from 22 a game last year.  He also only played in 6 of our 10 games.  There is no value in attempting to resign him at this point.
Blair (9): One less minute per game than Mason, but he played in all 10 games.  Next season, you might be able to get 15-20 in a playoff game out of him.
Bogans (7): Yes, Dallas was a poor matchup for him and he makes veteran minimum, but I'd much rather see Hairston or our next draft pick with any minutes Bogans got this year.  We should let him go.
Temple (3): Whatever...it is what it is.  I hope we keep him so he can compete for a roster spot next year.  He is a good developmental talent, but I'm not sure how much he can even help in the postseason next year.

Moving on to 2011

Prediction

'11 Roster 10 Contributors
- No one.....
+Splitter (25), Blair (15), SF Draft Pick (10-15)

I think we will have some of our D League guys and maybe a new veteran on the roster, but I think we will stay the same.

Let me check my front court math:  Duncan (30) + Dice (16) + Splitter (25) + Blair (15) + Bonner (10) = 96 minutes

We should have one more big, veteran, rookie, or Mahinmi just for the regular season haul.  Bonner could easily become a regular season player too if Dice, Splitter, or Blair proved they should have his minutes.  The playoff minutes could also fluctuate depending on match-ups.

After our 10 contributors and extra big, we are left with 4 open roster spots for Hairston and three others.

My picks would be Gee, Temple, and possibly another rookie or D-Leaguer.

Miscellaneous Aside: In 2001 and 2008, we lost in the conference finals.  In 2009 we lost in the first round.  Those are the uninteresting parts.  The interesting part is that in '02, '04, and '06, we lost in the semis.  Remember what we did after each of those seasons the next year?  Hopefully '10 (lost in the Semis) and '11 repeat this trend.  It will also be an odd year which is good Spurs mojo.