These aren't the Suns we know
by Tim C. on Apr 30, 2010 11:15 PM CDT
in Analysis
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PrintWell, here we go again. Those annoying Phoenix Suns are meeting our Spurs in the series that begins on Monday night. While it's no secret that San Antonio has completely owned the Suns over the last several years, things have changed since the last time these playoff dance partners met. And the changes don't benefit the Spurs.
Note: this isn't a series preview, just an attempt to put this year's Spurs and Suns teams into a historical perspective.
As we all know, the Suns have been among the league's leading offensive teams ever since the re-arrival of Steve Nash in the 2004-05 season. We also know that they push the tempo, which has a tendency to make their points per game total look inflated. A faster tempo means more possessions and more opportunities to score, while a slow tempo gives you less possessions. So, to figure out how these Suns stack up to their previous incarnations, we'll look at efficiency ratings, where we can see how well teams score when they all have the same number of possessions in a game.
This will also give us a chance to look at their defense compared to previous years, and give us a better picture of what we're up against.
Efficiency Rankings by season
The tables that follow were put together using efficiency ratings from basketball-reference.com.
Suns
 Season |
Offense | Defense |
| 2004-05 | 114.5 | 107.1 |
| 2005-06 | 111.5 | 105.8 |
| 2006-07 | 113.9 | 106.4 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 | 108.1 |
| 2008-09 | 113.6 | 111.6 |
| 2009-10 | 115.3 | 110.2 |
Did you expect this to be the best season the Suns have ever had offensively? Because I had a suspicion, before doing the research, that it would be this way. This is a well-oiled machine at the pinnacle of its efficiency, and we're going to have to be downright amazing if we want to limit their scoring opportunities.
The good news for us, though, is that the much-lauded Phoenix defense is actually not as good as many would have you think. From the year Nash arrived(2004-05) up until the 2007-08 season, the Suns were actually a middling defensive team in the league. This year, they ranked 23rd. However, they were ranked 28th right around the all-star break, so my impression is that they've rediscovered the type of defense they used to play until Shaq arrived, putting them right back in the middle of the pack if they had played that way all season. Underrated? Yes. Stifling? Hardly. But, combined with the best Suns offensive attack ever, it presents a very formidable challenge.
Spurs
 Season |
Offense | Defense |
| 2004-05 | 107.5 | 98.8 |
| 2005-06 | 107.3 | 99.6 |
| 2006-07 | 109.2 | 99.9 |
| 2007-08 | 107.2 | 101.8 |
| 2008-09 | 108.5 | 104.3 |
| 2009-10 | 110.0 | 104.5 |
As you can see, the 2004-05 Spurs were a meat grinder on defense. That defensive rating is completely unreal. Just for the purpose of comparison, this season's best defensive team, the Charlotte 'Cats, had a defensive rating of 102.8. It's fairly obvious how far the Spurs have slipped on that end of the floor - something that must be addressed this offseason, regardless of how well the team fares in the remainder of the playoffs. But it should be noted that the Spurs' worst defensive team of the last six seasons will not be shutting down the best Suns offense of the past six seasons - not consistently or for long stretches, anyway. The good news for us is that our team defense improved dramatically over the final month of the regular season, and it showed against Dallas. Spurs defense has made an appearance just in the nick of time - it will be desperately needed against these Suns.
We also have at our disposal the best Spurs offense of recent years, even though we have arguably underperformed on that end of the court. The big 3 have lots of help in the form of Hill, Dice, RJ, and Blair. And we're going to need them all if we want to burn Phoenix's defense enough to outscore them. I think this is entirely possible, because we're going to present one ugly matchup problem for Phoenix: Nash can't hide on defense anymore, much like Kidd couldn't in the series with Dallas(and Nash is much worse on that end than Kidd). He's going to have to guard one of our 4 perimeter scorers at all times, and that gives us an opening - once we beat Nash, smart and decisive ball movement can beat their rotations and lead to easy buckets.
What does this mean?
I'll say this as plainly as possible. This is going to be the best Suns team that San Antonio has ever faced in the postseason. And they will be highly motivated by their playoff history against us. There are definitely reasons for Spurs fans to be confident, but victory in this series is far from a foregone conclusion. I would not be the least bit shocked if Phoenix won this series, but I'm obviously hoping we continue using them as our postseason plaything. Regardless of the result, let's have fun watching it all play out, shall we?
But don't assume anything. Not this year.
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OK, no idea how the first one got posted with nothing in it. SBN doesn’t usually allow a post with NOTHING to be published.
Tim Duncan(USVI), Manu Ginobili(Argentina), Tony Parker(France)... no wonder Arizona hates foreigners.
They allowed it because it was masterful. Just as it was.
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
The weird thing is, I only had one draft window open the whole time, and I never hit publish. It’s almost as if someone posted it for me before I had bothered to write a damn thing.
Tim Duncan(USVI), Manu Ginobili(Argentina), Tony Parker(France)... no wonder Arizona hates foreigners.
Dude. You ruined one of the greatest posts of all-time. You had 6 recs.
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Apr 30, 2010 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions
All of those comments are gone? I"m furious!
"What is this new devilry?" -Jeff Van Gundy
by DrumsInTheDeep on Apr 30, 2010 11:23 PM CDT reply actions
The Spurs efficiency stats are skewed, big-time.
Parker was out for a huge chunk of the season, Manu was mailing it in for the majority of the season, and the team didn’t start playing very well until there were maybe 20 games left in the season…
As good as San Antonio’s efficiency stats look (and they do look good) they are even better.
The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !
by alamobro on Apr 30, 2010 11:56 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
the original post was better. fact.
free malik hairston!
perth wildcats - 2009/2010 nbl champions baby!
by sleep research facility on May 1, 2010 12:26 AM CDT reply actions
These aren’t the Suns we think we know.
But neither are the Spurs the team Suns fans think they know, either.
I tend to toss out regular season stats as indicative of a playoff series, because matchups and adjustments are more important than how a team performed against the rest of the league. And in this case, looking at the stats of the three regular-season games between the Spurs and the Suns isn’t too helpful either, given all the changes since those games were played.
I agree with you though that these Suns are likely to be a far more difficult opponent than in years past, and even tougher than Dallas. I trust that Pop will give the team strict instructions to make Nash the focal point of the attack, regardless of who he’s defending. Fatigue him, so that he has less energy to hurt the Spurs on the other end of the floor.
espn.com has Spurs 8 winning out of 10. The other two picked Phoenix in 7. I am only worried about one of those 2 predictions – Hollinger. But, he is not always right. I can see the reasoning. If the series is pushed to 7, then it is at Phoenix. He gave the home team the advantage in a possible 7 game series, not unreasonable.
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
I think the best Suns team was their team in 2006-7. I think that Suns team can beat this suns team in a seven game series – as odd as they would be to watch. Or rather, that team can go futher in today’s playoffs than this Suns team. Sure, this Suns team will present alot of problems – they have shooters, smart veterans, and the pick and roll, and a better emphasis on defense. But as someone already noted, our regular season stats are skewed because of parker’s injury, manu taking time to reach form, and the team needing time to reach form. Outside of the big three, we have Hill, Blair, RJ, Dyess, and Bonner to stretch the floor. Phoenix hasn’t seen a Spurs team with a Hill, Blair, Dyess, or athletic three in RJ. Spurs in 6 or less.
I missed the original post. I agree these Suns are better than in years past. The ‘Antoni Suns had OK defensive stats because they baited teams into jacking up quick jumpers instead of running their offense. Disciplined teams, aka playoff teams, didn’t fall for that. This Suns team actually plays half-court defense. Not to an extreme, but enough.
I think the title is a bit misleading. These are the Suns that we know. The Suns that do not play defense. The Suns that like to run and gun. The Suns who play pick and roll with Nash and Stoudamire. The Suns that shoot threes really well. The Suns who score a lot of transition baskets. The Suns that crumple when forced to play half-court basketball.
The two games that Portland won against them was due to defense in the 4th Quarter. They forced Phoenix into a drought both of those games in the 4th Quarter. Portland also did this in game 6 but failed to make any shots themselves during their defensive stand. Phoenix came out of the slump and started putting points on the board.
With that being said, this should be a well respected opponent who is capable of forcing into seven games. Personally I have the Spurs in six because I think Phoenix will collapse under our defensive pressure. The most dangerous man on the Suns side? Jrich. He has the ability to take over games and did twice in the Portland series. He has to be negated.
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
I’m a bit skeptical about the JRich thing. Was Portland simply a good matchup for him, or has he turned the corner somehow? Given his history as a underwhelming performer, it’s tough to say.
considering he completely took over two games against a playoff team……i would say that he is dangerous and worthy of concern. He poured in 48 points against Portland in a playoff game. What are you going to do? Not guard him? Not plan for him? He has to be marked as a very real potential threat to this series.
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
by Joe deLarios on May 1, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
No, I wasn’t saying to ignore him. But do we sacrifice Hill on him and leave Nash with a weaker defender (Parker)? If he’s going to go for 30 a night, I’d probably do it. But if he’s going to be around his career normal 15-18 a night, probably not.
That’s the importance of the question of whether or not he simply had a good match up with Portland. Given the injuries to Batum and Roy, who did Portland have to guard him? Not to mention their weakness inside due to their ravaged front line. The right match ups can make a huge difference in a players single series performance. See: Barea last year vs this year against the Spurs or Matt Barnes against the Mavs in 07 vs the rest of his career.
Maybe Richardson is hot and will account for special attention. Or maybe he’ll play to his averages and we can game plan for him normally. Again, it’s a tough question. I say the Spurs focus on who we KNOW will be good and adjust if JRich kills us in game 1.
He is worthy of the kind of attention Pop has given Q-Richardson and Bell at the 3-pt line in past seasons and the athleticism of years-gone-by Marion. But with defensive attention he is what he is: a good player with athleticism, not a great player. My hope is that what he did to Portland was him playing a above himself in a good match-up which will even out now. It’s like if RJ averages 24 & 9 vs PHX, he’s unlikely to do it in the next round.
What is interesting is how Miller lit him up in game 1 so they moved Grant Hill on to Miller. Who will J-Rich guard for us? We can make him exert energy and perhaps find foul trouble.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
good point on who Jrich will guard. I suppose he will cover RJ.
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
I read some posts on BSOTS and they seem confident that Grant Hill can handle Manu while Nash can cover George Hill. I’m staying quiet and will allow reality to answer that.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Grant Hill played some terrific D against the Blazers, but even he can’t stop Manu from being Manu.
Nash on Hill would be worse for the Suns than Nash on Parker, right now. I suppose it might work, if Tony or Manu were the primary ball-handler, and George was in the corner waiting for an open three. That might give Nash the opportunity to free-lance and get some steals. But I would hope that the Spurs would be smart enough to spot the mismatch in that situation, switch tactics and make George the point of attack, and grind Nash into the ground.
I’m also going to go out and say that Phoenix’s coaching has improved. Pop should still win this match up, but I don’t expect Gentry to be as clueless in making adjustments as D’Antoni always was.
It is not quite fair comparison, the personnel is different, though Gentry seem to do a very good job. D’Antoni was asked to integrate Shaq into his up-tempo team. I am not sure anybody would be able to make it happen.
I am here to state the obvious.
I was just thinking that everyone made D’Antoni to be some kind of offensive genius. When it seems that what he did could be easily replicated as long as you had Nash. Add to that D’Antoni’s teams didn’t defend, and this year’s does. So Gentry has his offense up to D’Antoni levels PLUS has some defense to boot.
I tend to agree with this
just talking to the players about the improved Suns defense (and don’t be fooled by the season-long numbers) they all credit Gentry for his emphasis on that end.
The offense is better in large part b/c of the bench and the much more efficient and versatile half court sets.
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on May 2, 2010 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Gentry did an excellent job last year of playing and thus developing the younger players in PHX. Now, as an interim that wasn’t going to make the playoffs that may have been easier to do than a team with higher expectations but he did it and it paid off this season. I actually think he’s one of the top five or six coaches in the league at drawing up plays out of timeouts.
D’Antoni had two problems: number one he complained about everything which becomes the psychy of the team. Refs, injuries, etc (the complete 180 of a Jerry Sloan). Numbers two was playing in the same conference as Duncan, Manu, Parker and Pop. It’s happened to many a team before, where you’re damn good but not as good as the great team. Make all the excuses you want, you didn’t beat the other guy because he was and is better. Think Ewing in NY and the Cavs while Jordan, Pippen and Phil were around.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
+1
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on May 2, 2010 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions
to op
do you mind if i post this on bsots? I don’t know if it’s your graphic or not, thought i’d ask.
Thanks for the history in numbers. What is not in the numbers are alot of events which led to our wins. Two examples are the Horry bump and Coach Mike’s implosion. We are just now a team. A #7 that beat #2 by using their heads. An example of this was George’s goad and resuting hook by Dirk. That type of playing is not recorded by numbers except by fouls and we know of course it was more than a foul. Moving forward to the Suns, we find that Nash has a hurt hip he already talked about at his pesser after the Portland win. Amare shaking his head about the Spurs at his presser and Coach Gentry (who I really like) saying at his presser that he thinks Pop is the best Coach in the NBA ( and you could see it in his face, he ment it) These are just a few of the playoff mind sets that drive the other teams and owners crazy about the Spurs. They get so mad but at the same time they can’t help themselves.
Although I appreciate the concern and self-insulation from many, you guys are being ridiculous. The suns, and yes even this extra special and totally-not-the-same-team this-year-suns, are built for the regular season. We are built for the playoffs. We run half court sets, practice transition D, and use the clock. They do none of these things. Still.
I was far more concerned with Dallas, a team that actually matched up well with us, than I am with phx. The only difference between them of old and them of now is productive Roles. They actually HAVE them now. But, you know what? So…. do….we. And our Roles are stepping up fairly well. Also, Pop is still our coach, and Pop thrives against a team like this. Our destiny is solely in our hands. If we play within our system and play smart, there’s no reason this series isn’t over after Game 5. Calm your little hearts, people.
All that said, if and when we DO get past them… I’m sure they’ll have a list of excuses already prepared.
"If I was the kind of guy who posted a signature line, this would be it from now on." -SiMA
by SgtinManusArmy on May 1, 2010 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
yes, agreed. my post on the Suns v Spurs preview sums it up as well – just a little longer winded. This team is to be respected but we are much more dangerous to them than they are to us.
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
by Joe deLarios on May 1, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Notice I still picked us to win in the prediction thread.
Tim Duncan(USVI), Manu Ginobili(Argentina), Tony Parker(France)... no wonder Arizona hates foreigners.
That’s what keeps you firmly as one of SiMA’s favorites, Rik.
And I LOVE your new sig, btw.
"If I was the kind of guy who posted a signature line, this would be it from now on." -SiMA
by SgtinManusArmy on May 1, 2010 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree that Dallas was built to beat the Spurs, this year and in past ones. In some sense, that’s a problem for them… the ones that did beat us in the playoffs seemed to match up poorly against the next team, or the team after that, in the post season.
I didn’t state it clearly above, but it’s not Nash or Amare who concern me… they’re known quantities. the Spurs know that the focal point of the attack should be Nash (make him play D and tire him out) and can live with Amare having a big game, as long as the other players don’t get started. It’s their role players — Richardson, Hill, Frye, even Dudley and Dragic — who aren’t the Suns we know (well), and one or more of them could be the difference-maker. I’m thankful that it looks unlikely for Lopez to recover in time to make an impact in the series.
That said, you’re right that our role players are now productive too, and team seems to be pulling together and improving game to game (especially the defense) and defying expectations, so maybe it’s Phoenix who should fear the Spurs. The tone, if not the final score, of Game 1 should tell us a lot.
I do think Dallas was the tougher opponent of the two. You have to play the games, but if the Spurs come out with their best stuff, there are
things that the Suns will have trouble with:
+Nash can’t hide guarding Bowen. He’ll have to deal with RJ/Hill/Parker/Manu depending upon the lineups
+Suns have less size than the Mavs and are not that physical. This helps Duncan/Bonner and especially Blair. Much more difficult for the defenders to intimate Blair’s shots.
+Hill’s growth – if he continues to show what he’s been doing in recent time, it’ll be tough for the Suns to match that if the big 3 do their stuff
+Spurs were great at points in the paint in the last series which allowed them to do well without many 3’s. Suns interior D is not better than the Mavs D.
ON defense, if they let Nash become a scorer and Amare and stop everyone else like they’ve done in years past, then they’ll be in good standing. I still think the series goes 6 though.
We were never able to stop Amar’e. We have now two new options to do that, Dice and Blair, may be even three, counting Bonner. Would we be able to make things difficult for Stoudamire? It could be a series, right there, depending on the answer. I’m confident in our backcourt, arguably the best we ever had, and their advantage in 3-pts shooting should be negated by our superior rebounding. But Amar’e may give them an edge. And their depth is quite formidable. I would actually consider playing more of Blair, Bonner, Hairston and Temple. It would be nice to limit minutes for Tim and Manu, so that they would not be too exhausted in the 4th Q, when we need them at their best.
I am here to state the obvious.
The Spurs success will have absolutely nothing to do with stopping, or even making things extremely difficult for Amare. For proof, see every previous series ever played against Phoenix.
The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !
I know what we have done in the past, but these Suns are deeper than their previous teams, and have more options both offensively and defensively. If Amar’e will have his way, as he used to have in the past, it could be just enough to push them over the limit. Those are not the same teams, and if we were successful doing something in the past, doesn’t guarantee that we can succeed doing the same thing over again. We evidently matched up with Dallas better than we did in past several seasons, and these Suns may as well match up better with us. I should admit, I don’t understand the Suns. I didn’t expect them to be the 3rd seed, and I picked Portland against them in the 1st round. Still, they keep winning in spite of my scepticism about them. They must be doing something right.
I am here to state the obvious.
I agree that the same strategy shouldn’t be used all the time soley because it worked in a previous series.
But it’s just the nature of Amares attack that makes it difficult. There’s not a baller on the planet that can check him. The only reason he isn’t a legend in his own time is due to his lack of defense, and he’s stuck in Phoenix. No one on the team is even going to make it that difficult for him. He’s a one in a million athlete, seeing this guy in person is crazy, on his moves to the hoop, sometimes he moves faster than your eyes can see.
In addition, he was finding the open three point shooters in the game 6 win against Portland, so you can’t really double him…
The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !
I wonder if Blair may be strong and agile enough to play Amar’e. Mahinmi? RJ?
I am here to state the obvious.
If he gave the same effort on defense and defensive rebounding as he does on dunking he’d have less energy on the offensive end. He’s decided to be a stat and highlight guy while hoping someone else carries the team to the finish line. That is one reason he’s never been and will never be in Duncan’s league.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
couldn't agree more...
…up until this season :)
Don’t be fooled by his low rebounding numbers in the Blazers series. His assignment was to keep Camby and Aldridge off the glass and not worry about his stats. The Suns were +21 against the Blzrs on the glass and they are longer and more athletic then the Spurs front court.
I think you guys might just be surprised by this Suns team….at least I hope so :)
Gonna be fun though. There’s no answer for Duncan and Manu, George and Parker together is down right combustible.
Blogging Suns Basketball . twitter: @sethpo
by Seth Pollack on May 2, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
I’m not sure I’ll be surprised by the Suns since I live out west and see them a great deal with their late home games, plus the games against the Warriors and the national TV and games vs Spurs.
I’m thinking that many Suns fans will be surprised at how much more athletic and deep the Spurs are from past seasons in addition to the known quantities of the Big-3. Ultimately, we’ll learn a lot from following this series and learn a great deal over the usual nearly seven games.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Dice did yeoman’s work on Dirk, no question. He deserves a lot of credit. Amare may be a tougher matchup for Dice, given his youth and quickness.
Blair is a beast, but he’s still a rookie. He won’t get the benefit of calls against Amare, nor do I expect him to have the experience (yet) to counter Stoudamire’s moves and length.
Bonner brings passion to defense, but you’re kidding, right?
I’m content with one of the Suns — Amare, Nash, Richardson or Hill — putting up big points in any given game, but burning up possessions to do so, so that the other players don’t have a chance to get started. Typical Spurs philosophy… if one guy has an unbelievable (i.e. unrepeatable) performance to beat us, fine. Just don’t let the other guys beat us.
It worked in the Dallas series…
No doubt. Lock up the others, and let Apostrophe go. Make Nash a scorer instead of a facilitator. We do these two things, as we always have when we beat them, and we got this chit.
"If I was the kind of guy who posted a signature line, this would be it from now on." -SiMA
by SgtinManusArmy on May 1, 2010 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m also content with one of the Suns having a big game in any given game. But if we really have no answer to Amar’e, then he is able to kill us every game, and one of other guys may get hot as well. This is much more troublesome, plus their 3-pt shooting is exceptional. If we allow Stud a free rein, we pretty much must stop every other guy on their team from having a big game. It seems to be a rather tall order to me. I would rather had an option of shutting down Amar’e if we need to.
I am here to state the obvious.
I’m not saying the Spurs should give away points to Amare… he still has to work for them, just like anyone else. If Dice or Blair or the team as a whole can shut him down, great. But regardless, the more the ball stays in his hands, the more the other Suns stand around watching him work, the better for the Spurs.
Sure, there will be games where other Suns get hot despite the Spurs’ efforts (or more likely, due to breakdown in execution) and the Spurs may lose those games. But I’m not expecting the Spurs to sweep the Suns, winning four games in this series will be enough to satisfy me. :)
The Suns’ three-point shooting is scary, but I think you can force them into bad shooting nights if every three is contested. No open threes, no transition threes. Don’t let Nash, Richardson, ANY Sun get confidence by hitting an uncontested three. If they have a game where they’re hitting nearly everything from behind the arc BUT the Spurs have a hand in their face every time, I can live with it… the odds are they won’t have another game like that in the series.
This series is probably even more about our defense than the series against Dallas. And I believe we need to make Amar’e work on D end real hard.
I am here to state the obvious.
The thing is we’re all pointing out to you is that in previous Suns-Spurs series, the Spurs did make Amare work hard (on both ends of the floor). And he still put up big numbers. And the Spurs still won those series.
He (and Nash) are the known quantities. It’s the other guys who are the unknown factors, and I’m happy if the Spurs can get them to be spectators on the floor watching Amare trying to win the game all by himself.
And I am pointing out to you that Amar’e had some success against us in the past, so he is dangerous. Yes, we were able to overcome it in the past, so what? Turing the argument around, Dalals could say this year “yeah, Duncan and Parker played well against us, but we were able to beat those guys recently, so we should not worry about Duncan and Parker”. As it happened, Timmeh was brilliant in game 2, and Tony down the stretch in game 3. Then our “unknown factors” plus Manu pretty much won games 4 and 6. Yes, we know Amar’e, but we shouldn’t get complacent, may be we can play him better now than we could in the past. I am not arguing with your historical arguments, I am arguing against the complacency. These Suns are not the same team we beat in 2005 or in 2007, and our team is not the same team as well.
I am here to state the obvious.
‘Some’ success? He’s had a lot of success. But his team hasn’t, and that’s the key.
I’m not being complacent at all. Amare, like Dirk, is one of those players that the Spurs don’t have a counter for… it’s unrealistic and unfair to ask Dice and/or Blair to try to shut him down. So San Antonio does the best thing they can… they make Amare (Dirk) work for his points, burn up clock, energy, and possessions, and dare him to try to beat them all by himself. Most of the time the strategy works, and the Spurs win most of the games and the series.
I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict that if Amare averages 25-30 ppg but eats up possession minutes, the Spurs take the series. If he scores under 25 ppg but Nash gets the other Suns going, it’ll be Phoenix.
In some sense, we’re in agreement that it’s the other guys for the Suns — Hill, Richardson, etc. — that could be the key for them this time. I think the Spurs’ team D is good enough to shut them down, particularly if the ball is in Amare’s hands for the bulk of the Suns’ possession minutes.
The biggest benefit to allowing the Suns to be all about Amare or in making Nash a scorer is that other guys that are volume shooters don’t get their shots. Some get frustrated but most just get a cold shooting hand. Plus, making Nash a scorer places even more work on his shoulders.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
We were never able to stop Amar’e. We have now two new options to do that, Dice and Blair, may be even three, counting Bonner.
Surely, you jest… TELL ME, you jest….
The Spurs = Not your granddaddies 7th seed !
He’s due!
"What is this new devilry?" -Jeff Van Gundy
by DrumsInTheDeep on May 1, 2010 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah. To me, Blair and RJ are the keys to the series from our end. If we can get good production out of those two, the Suns won’t be able to keep up.
Tim Duncan(USVI), Manu Ginobili(Argentina), Tony Parker(France)... no wonder Arizona hates foreigners.
I think, rebounding and points in the paint are two key areas where we need to dominate. The Suns are better shooters, we are not going to win shooting a lot of jumpers against them. But if we control the boards and score in the paint, we’ll be all right. Both Balir and RJ can contribute enormously to our success in these areas.
I am here to state the obvious.
+1
RJ specifically, in fact. Rage gets going and stays going… and phx will be in trouble. We can get away with allowing Apostrophe to be a scorer only and locking down the others; they won’t have that same luxury, as we have far more that could go off and be the primary scorer.
It’s an interesting though if you’re phx- So you lock Manu down. Then there’s Timmy. Lock him down too, then there’s the penetration of Tony and George. Focus on them, and you leave RJ open on the wings. Not to mention that now we have a big who can hit long range and requires attention. While we can focus on just allowing Apostrophe to be the scorer and locking down everyone else, they don’t have that same luxury. We have a minimum of 4 guys that can carry our scoring any night, they really consistantly don’t. This fact is going to REALLY challenge phx’s new “defense.”
"If I was the kind of guy who posted a signature line, this would be it from now on." -SiMA
by SgtinManusArmy on May 1, 2010 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I do like that RJ seems to be keeping his head in the game despite his “on-game/off-game” offensive stats pattern. I probably didn’t realize earlier in the season how playing with The Big Three would entail such an adjustment for him, mentally-speaking, from being the first or second option, to being the third or fourth.
Basketball genius that Manu is, he may have been the first to recognize the value of getting RJ into the flow early in each game. It would be a treat if the Spurs get RJ going in every game of the series… he doesn’t need to put up big numbers every night, but if the Suns have to worry about him when he’s moving and making cuts on the floor, it opens things up for everyone else.
You completely had me at…
Basketball genius that Manu is
"If I was the kind of guy who posted a signature line, this would be it from now on." -SiMA
by SgtinManusArmy on May 1, 2010 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions
The good in RJ’s game lately is that even when he’s not in the offensive flow, he’s still mentally in the game. Earlier in the season, if he didn’t get going with his offense, he disappeared in all aspects of the game. That is not the case anymore. Even though he was off and on with his scoring in the Dallas series, he still hustled and d’ed up while on the court.
I doubt I can tell you anything you don’t already know (except, may be, how to use reply button ;-)
Still, here are some stats from game 6 against the Mavs:
Player Min FG(%) +/- Off Reb Ast BS TO PF Pts
Matt Bonner 12 2-4(50%) -2 1 7 1 0 1 4 4
Haywood/Dampier/Najera 46 1-4(25%) -10 4 13 1 1 1 7 2
I would say that in 12 minutes Bonner contributed about as much as 3 big Dallas men combined in 46 minutes. And he didn’t even have a very good game.
I am here to state the obvious.
That looks very impressive, but let’s not forget that Dampier, Najera, even Haywood are not counted on by Dallas to score points. They’re in there to take up space in the lane, grab boards, and commit fouls. They pretty much did what they were supposed to do, except for shutting down the Spurs’ at the rim.
Bonner, on the other hand, is counted on by San Antonio to help space the floor. When he’s not hitting threes, he’s not doing that, because his defender then cheats and is a step or two closer to being able to double-team Timmy or impede Tony’s (or Manu’s or George’s or RJ’s) path to the basket. He didn’t do what he was supposed to do, and while the energy he showed in Game 6 was great, he would have gotten more playing time if he had just hit some threes. I really want him to get his stroke back, because we need reliable outside shooting to discourage the Suns from double-teaming and packing the lane.
There is no doubt that we missed Bonner’s 3-pt shooting in the first round. The stats cited above look impressive to me, because of how much talk there was about improved inside presence of the Mavs.
They’re in there to take up space in the lane, grab boards, and commit fouls.So, Matt Bonner, who is not supposed to provide us with any inside presence, grabbed twice more boards per minute played, and had about twice more fouls (not sure, how good is that, but you described it a part of the job). He did it while scoring at 8 times higher rate, with twice higher percentage. Shouldn’t we conclude that he was a better big man? Instead, we say “Hey, Matty, we don’t want you to play like a big man. Just shoot your fucking 3s.” I think, that 95% of PtR members were ready to trade Bonner for Haywood, but it doesn’t it look like Bonner is better in the things, which Haywood is paid to do? And I don’t talk about their comparative 3-pt shooting efficiency at all. Haywood, Dampier and Najera were so collectively outplayed in this series by our big men, that any comparison looks somehow unfair.
I am here to state the obvious.
The talk about the improved inside presence was mainly about Haywood. And to be fair, over the series, particularly when he started, he did improve Dallas’ interior defense… not that it took much to improve over Dampier’s futile attempts to stop our driving guards or Timmy when he had his shot.
Trading Haywood for Bonner? I wasn’t one of those, but that would give the Spurs a second 7-footer to help Timmy, which could change the defensive schemes back to the Duncan/Robinson, Duncan/Mohammed, or Duncan/Oberto days, but that would leave Dice or Blair (probably Blair) out of the mix, and I wouldn’t like that. Plus, they’d still need a designated three-point shooter.
The point is, Bonner isn’t in the game to match up straight up against Haywood or Dampier or even Najera. His role is to stretch the floor, pull one of their guys away from the paint so our slashers have room to drive, and when he’s not making threes (or in some cases, looking afraid to take the three), he’s not playing his role.
I’m not questioning Bonner’s passion or hustle, and it’s great that he did other things to help the team. I loved it when he followed up his own miss with a rebound and bucket. I’d just be a heck of a lot happier if he DID HIS JOB and made some threes in the Suns series so that they can’t cheat off of him on defense. It doesn’t have to be a great percentage, at this point, I’d be happy with one out of three, two out of six or seven, provided that they’re timely shots.
I understand your point, and this is a valid point. But I am also happy how our bigs totally outplayed their non-German bigs, and I feel that Bonner made some useful contributions.
I am here to state the obvious.
totally :-) I really think that part of a job description of their bigs should have been committing fouls, especially on Timmeh.
I am here to state the obvious.
Especially late in Game 6. But Timmy was too smart for them, got the ball into someone else’s hands….
And I can’t see Najera putting a hard foul on Timmy (or Dice or Blair). He went after our smaller players.
SO that I understand, the stats are post-season based? If so, does that matter> My meaning is, we played a better team in Dallas. Our scoring difference over six games vs one opponent can not be compared to another team’s difference over six games with a separate opponent, especially once that was inferior to ours.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
The efficiency ratings are based on regular season.
Tim Duncan(USVI), Manu Ginobili(Argentina), Tony Parker(France)... no wonder Arizona hates foreigners.
On a different note, I hope somebody out East stops LeBron. The Cavs are the team I feel like we have the least chances of beating. Everyone else seems fair game.
I cheer for the Celtics right now. Though I think the Lakers are even worse match up or us.
I am here to state the obvious.
Lakers seemed to have a mini-slump there. I wonder if it would’ve indeed been better if we got them on the first round. Then again, this series with the Mavs did makes u better.
Yeah, as much as I’m hating it, I’m rooting for the Celtics now. Never thought I’d see the day
Reply fail. I posted this as a new post.
No worries. we get Cleveland, after beating Dallas, Phoenix and (likely) LA, the Cavs will just be the final bump in the road. Tough, yes, but we won’t lose in the Finals.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
This series will be won in the paint where Timmy and Dyess should dominate. The Sun’s only legitimate big, Stoudemire can score, but he averages just 9 reb. and 1 blk a gm. I envision Hill, Parker and Ginobilii making serious hay in the paint without having to fear a Sun’s big who can make finishing difficult.
The best thing about the Mavs series is that it was great preparation for Phx as the same strategy will apply. Pop can keep preaching the same song limit turnovers and get back on D and Spurs win.
I put up the 2nd round series poll for you guys on the right side of the Front Page.
Just cause we're crippled, don't mean we gotta take the crumbs.
by silverandblack_davis on May 1, 2010 9:54 PM CDT reply actions
This will be a warm up for the LA series bro
Spurs in 4.
The Suns were doubling Lamarcus Aldrige bro. Imagine what timmy will do to them, on bum knees
No more cross matching RJ and Hill cancel each other
And like CWebb said, our best players excel in that fast break
TP dominates Nash
Amare goes for 50 and 10
And Manu goes behind the back for old times sake bro.
Spurs wont even break a sweat. Suns have gotten better, but no better enough
Suns Fans check their closets for Manu Ginobili Bro.
Applaud your confidence, but… one series, one game, one play at a time.
I can’t reconcile your statement that the Suns have gotten better with your prediction of the Spurs in 4. If the Suns were to get swept, it would seem that they would have regressed, relative to the Spurs. Which is it?
Manu, basketball genius that he is, ...
Suns have gotten better bro
By Phoenix Standards. But I dont really see them as a real threat.
They can be good and still get beat by the better team. Look at Utah today.
Its the same old story with the Spurs and Suns.
This isnt even a “rivalry”. How is it a rivalry when one team has destroyed the other since the beginning of time. Only one Rivalry in the Western Conference and thats LA/SA
Only team we have to worry about is LA bro and hope Utah wears them down.
Plus, i think if we went through a tough Dallas team, we can beat these guys easily bro.
Who can defend Timmy ? They had to double Portlands big men. And whose gonna guard TP, Manu, Hill ? Nash, Barbosa, and Old man Grant ?
Jared Dudley ???? Sorry but those names dont strike any urgency. We got this bro.
The key is princess peanut. if he can come alive offensively for more than one game, this wont be hard. His defense was great last series though.
Suns Fans check their closets for Manu Ginobili Bro.
see ya in the game threads bro. :)
If you liked it then you should have put a 5th ring on it. Oh oh oh.
Spurs by 6
Suns Fans check their closets for Manu Ginobili Bro.
by SpursNumberUno on May 3, 2010 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions
What the hell… no 12 ’bro’s?!’
But yes, SPURS in 6. Bro.
"If I was the kind of guy who posted a signature line, this would be it from now on." -SiMA
by SgtinManusArmy on May 3, 2010 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Manu Gives JRich 27 bro. Timmy Gives Amare and Fry at least 28
Hill and TP abuse Nashty all night.
Spurs struggle against the Amare/Nash P&R as always Bro.
Spurs gut this one out in the Fourth Dudester
Suns Fans check their closets for Manu Ginobili Bro.
by SpursNumberUno on May 3, 2010 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
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