Western Conference Playoff Scenarios
by BlaseE on Apr 13, 2010 10:57 AM CDT
in Analysis
Email
Print
Come inside to find out what could happen....
The 1 and the 8
First, the Lakers will play the Thunder in the first round. It is set.
The 6 and the 7
The 6 and 7 seeds are relatively easy. If we beat Dallas (in Dallas) and Portland loses to the Warriors in California, we will be the 6th seed. If Portland wins or we lose, we are the 7. We are likely the 7.
2 Through 5
This is where it gets interesting. Clearly, we should be most concerned with the team who ends up in 2nd and slightly less interested (but still) in the 3rd seed.
First, we must beat Dallas in order for them to lose the 2 seed. If we rest that game, we play them. Phoenix will also lose any tiebreak with a division leader. Phoenix can't be the 2 seed. Phoenix will be automatically eliminated out of any 3 way tie break with the division winners.
Records and Remaining Schedules
Dallas (54-27): SAS
Denver (53-28): @ PHX
Utah (52-28): @ GSW. PHX
Phoenix (52-28): DEN, @ UTA
The Chart
Okay, I had written more but deleted it and made a chart instead. The odds are based purely on the number of times a team is matched to that seed. Utah and Portland have to be favorites to beat Golden State. Those games aren't 50-50. You can also see Phoenix controls its fate. If they win both of their games, they get the 3 seed.
* If Portland loses to Golden State, we are the 6.
Conclusions
It is highly likely we play Dallas in the first round independent of the outcome of our game.
Our ideal Spur scenario would likely be:
1. Spurs beat Dallas and Portland loses to GS. We are the 6th seed and Portland is the 7th.
2. Phoenix or Golden State must beat Utah or Denver must beat Phoenix to ensure Utah is the 4 or 5.
3a. You want Denver more than Phoenix: Denver must beat Phoenix or Phoenix must lose to Utah.
3b. You want Phoenix more than Denver: Phoenix must win out.
218 comments
|
2 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It feels like a no-brainer, and yet…
"What is this new devilry?" -Jeff Van Gundy
by DrumsInTheDeep on Apr 13, 2010 11:02 AM CDT reply actions
I think I’d rather play the Ponies.
"What is this new devilry?" -Jeff Van Gundy
by DrumsInTheDeep on Apr 13, 2010 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
No, I mis-read the question. I mean the Ponies in the 1st round, if we have the choice, then Denver in the 2nd.
"What is this new devilry?" -Jeff Van Gundy
by DrumsInTheDeep on Apr 13, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
If the 3/6 matchup is DEN/POR, then the winner of Spurs-Mavs is going to have it easy in the second round, while Utah will probably slug it out with LA. Awesome… I’m starting to like this bracket a bit more.
Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek
Utah slugs at LA and Lakers alwasy responds by running them over. As much as Utah may cause us problems, they don’t cause LA the same issues. Much like Denver causes LA problems that they don’t cause us.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Utah is the most useless team. They are trouble for us and not a trouble for the Lakers. Denver and Phoenix are probably the most useful teams, they seem to match up with the Lakers better than with us. The rest are somewhere in between.
I am here to state the obvious.
I don’t think Phoenix stands a chance against LA.
Just cause we're crippled, don't mean we gotta take the crumbs.
by silverandblack_davis on Apr 13, 2010 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I want to avoid Dallas in the first round. I’d rather see the Spurs beat up on a distraught Denver team and give Hill and Parker more time to get comfortable.
"We suck on 'D. Both individually and team-wise, we suck. We're pretty consistent that way. I don't know if I have an answer to that. If I did, we wouldn't suck quite so bad." - Popovich
by Aaron "Hirschof" Preine on Apr 13, 2010 11:09 AM CDT reply actions
Not big on seeing Phoenix early either.
"We suck on 'D. Both individually and team-wise, we suck. We're pretty consistent that way. I don't know if I have an answer to that. If I did, we wouldn't suck quite so bad." - Popovich
by Aaron "Hirschof" Preine on Apr 13, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
It’s worth noting that we tip at 7:00 and the Blazers don’t tip until 9:30 Spurs time. Suns-Jazz also tips at 9:30.
Tonight, Jazz @ Warriors and Nuggets @ Suns both tipping @ 9:30. I will be rooting for Golden State and Denver. That will make the Suns-Jazz game tommorrow night for home court and the 4th seed only. Then it is just up to us and the Blazers to decide who plays Dallas and who plays Denver.
If Denver wins tonight then they clinch #3 and Dallas #2 meaning the Mavs won’t have any seeding for which to play. That could affect how they play the finale. If this happens (and I’m not expecting to DEN to win tonight) the real decision is on Nate in Portland. He could rest all his key people and basically give away the finale vs GSW. That, plus a Spurs win, means the Blazers are #7 and get the Mavs. There only chance to win a series without Roy (if at all) is to play the Dallas team whom they are 3-1 against including winning without Roy. That would then give us Denver.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
So, do we go for the win? Missing from this is that if Denver wins in Phoenix or Utah loses to the Warriors tonight, the Mavs lock up the # 2. So if either happens, I assume the Mavs will give us the game. The Blazers have the late game on Wednesday, so we will not know the outcome during our game against the Mavs. I think we have to play to win, right? Unless Pop decides he really wants to play the Mavs, in which case both teams may purposely tank.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
"I mean, Dartmouth really sucks and Cornell only beat us by 18. Temple will beat the hell out of Cornell. Promise." -- Me
Given how well our bench is playing, I’m not sure we’re capable of tanking a game.
Can you just see Pop? “No, Ian! I want you to dunk! I want nothing but fast-break dunks for the rest of this quarter! Tony, STOP PASSING! Mase, take some more perimeter shots, goddammit!”
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
Play to win while being wise about minutes. If Dallas sits any key players or reduces their minutes we need to do similar, especially with Manu. I don’t want some Mavs’ bench player taking a cheap shot or hard foul in the 4th quarter just because he’s happy to be in the game.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
If Dallas...
If Dallas does sit some of their starters Wednesday then perhaps we should do the same. However I don’t see Dallas tanking this game as some people think they might (regardless of their seeding). Do they really want to lose the last game AT HOME AGAINST THE SPURS? The only thing people in Dallas love more than winning is winning against big brother, the San Antonio Spurs. I think they will play to their best, especially if it appears the Spurs will be playing them in the playoffs.
by The Augustus on Apr 13, 2010 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I say Pop plays the players the minutes he wants them to have and we take the win or the loss.
by BlaseE on Apr 13, 2010 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So our choices are Dallas and Utah? UGH.
Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek
I’d rather have PHX which is possible if they win out (we’d have to be #6). Lopez possibly being out makes that even more appealing. That would push Denver to the 4/5 where they could play LA in the 2nd round, possibly with an emotional boost of getting Karl back. If the Spurs, Nuggets and Mavs all end up in the 2/7, 3/6 bracket they will party in the LA coaches offices. Those are the only three teams capable of beating the Lakers in a best of 7 and this would mean that only one could play LA, all the way in the WCF.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I read the question wrong but my answer remained unchanged. I thought it was who we wanted in the first round. But I still pick PHX because that means we beat Dallas then play the #3 Suns next. I’ll take that. Then Denver can beat up on LA with Karl back. Works for me.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Not a bad assumption. We don’t even know if Pop cares about winning. But I’m wondering how Nate will play his Blazers. They’re in and they won’t be #8. After all their injuries plus the chance to play Dallas, wouldn’t you sit all important players if you were him? I also wonder, knowing that it’s not a must win nor a rival game, if they may have an emotional letdown. That would open the door for us.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Definitely. Can you imagine if Pop rests the starters against Dallas, thereby telling Dallas “we do not fear you in any way, shape or form” ??
Of course, the main reason to rest the starters would be because of the brutal closing schedule. But the added subplot would be delicious.
I bet Pop plays the Starters in the first half only,and rests the second half, win or lose.
Crappy teams fear us !
Going purely by percentages, they HAVE to lose against us some time, right?
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
I’m going with the exception not the rule theory. The earlier games this year was the exception not the rule. And I’ve enjoyed the rule these past ten years.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
And we no longer have Bruce to hound Williams.
Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek
That is our biggest problem. But they still have the great shrinking Boozer.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
And Memo Okur. Who gets blue balls during pressure situations.
Just cause we're crippled, don't mean we gotta take the crumbs.
by silverandblack_davis on Apr 13, 2010 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions
What about the playoff roster?
We only get 12 players to put on the playoff roster, no injured reserve. Tim, Tony, Manu, Hill, RJ, Blair, McDyess, Bogans, Bonner, and Mase make 10, who do the last 2 spots go to out of Hairston, Mahimi, Garret Temple? One of those guys has to get left out, and given Pop’s historical affinity for 3rd string PGs, Temple’s play, and our recent injuries at this position, Temple has a pretty decent case for making the roster.
If that happens do we leave out Hairston or Mahimi? Is it possible that Mase could drop off the playoff roster for one of these guys? Sadly I think Hairston is the odd man out unless we’re done with Roger.
I’d bet Hairston makes it and Yawn doesnt. Hairston has shown that he’s a capable defender, which Pop will prefer over Ian’s 6 pf/game.
Genibus Nitito Canus
by SpursfanSteve on Apr 13, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I would hate to lose another big for the playoffs. At least Mahinmi can give 6 good fouls to Bynum/Haywood/Camby
I am here to state the obvious.
Given how much Pop has continued to play Mason, no matter how bad he’s played, and that Hairston has seen little time, I’d think he might be left out depending on matchups.
Hairston was out of his mind yesterday in the 4th. He was just embarrassing Minnesota as usually Kobe and LeBron are embarrassing teams.
I am here to state the obvious.
I dont know the numbers, but it feels like I’ve been seeing Hairston more than Yawn lately. Temple is definitely in, considering his starts. Having said that, I still would like another big with Yawn..especially since Timmy will be playing hard and probably need some help..
Not necessairly. Spurs have 4 guys who can handle, so Hill or Parker could shift to the 2 spot, which is an area that works well for them.
They changed the rules. You can have 15 players on a playoff roster but only 12 active for any game. It’s like the regular season. Gee is the only player we can’t play.
I think Mahinmi sits though. Temple and Hairston aren’t going to see many minutes though anyways.
They changed that rule?
lame! no more discussions about who should make playoff teams, no more tough choices like the one pop was gonna have to make… I think rules should be based on providing the best competition, sure, but sometimes its fun to debate about strategic choices a team has to make. Too bad for this rule in general, hooray for how its working out this year i guess.
by RamblingSpur on Apr 13, 2010 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, this delightful time of year. Playoffs! Playoffs!
I’m nervous. Antsy. Restless. Anxious. I feel all the time like a cat on a hot tin roof.
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
Pace yourself, Liz… hopefully it’s a long playoff season.
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney
So we are down to two teams I wanted to play the least in the 1st. Our playoffs prospects do not look all too good suddenly. We may also meet Portland in the 2nd. But of course most likely Dallas just beats us again.
I am here to state the obvious.
I don’t think so, or at least not as easily as you assume. A healthy Manu changes the equation completely.
I do not assume it would be easy. Whoever wins will be really tested in that series.
I am here to state the obvious.
I give them a slight edge because they have the home court. So I think their chances are slightly higher than 50% (anything with more than 50% of chance is “the most likely”). I didn’t mean that we don’t have our chances or that we are a bad team. If we played Denver or Phoenix I would feel that our chances to beat them are above 50%. For the Lakers, Dallas and Utah it looks like below 50% to me, just because they have the home court. I would say we have about 45% against Dallas and 40% against Utah.
I am here to state the obvious.
I wouldn’t worry about h/c. The series between the Spurs and Mavs have never come down to that. It’s also short travel which is a nice perk for our guys. My only h/c fear would be a game 7 in Utah. The rest of the teams is no issue.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
You wrote two sentences and they say the opposite things.
Meanwhile I convinced myself that we are better than Dallas.
I am here to state the obvious.
Not opposite. I said our series with Dallas has never come down to h/c. The ‘06 series wasn’t decided by who had h/c, otherwise we would’ve won. (truth be told it came down to some of the most attrocious officiating ever in both games 3&4 in Dallas which is convenietly forgotten by people who only remember the questionable officiating in the Finals.. but getting back on point).. A healthy Spurs team has no issue winning a playoff game in Dallas.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
1. We lost to them
On our court.
2.
Home team was 4-3 that series.
1 and 2 are opposite.
We lost to them on our court in game 7. == Home team was 3-4 that series.
I am here to state the obvious.
No, no. Home team was 4-3. Spurs were 2-2 at home. Mavs were 2-1. Home team being 4-3 doesn’t mean the team with h/c won unless home teams win each game. For example, through five games the home team was 4-1 but the Mavs led the series 3-2 because they had the one road win at that point. Then the road team won the final two, making the home team 4-3 for the series.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Sorry, I think I misunderstood what you said earlier. So this confirms my point about the importance of the home court.
Home team won that series :) If you have a home court advantage, then the odds shift to your side. In our last series with Dallas home team was 4-1, right?
I am here to state the obvious.
No, it confirms that it isn’t about h/c. We had it and home teams went 4-3 yet the team without h/c advantage won the series. We also went 3-0 in Dallas during the 2003 playoffs. And they went 2-1 in SA last season. So when these two play it’s not about being at home it’s about being better.
And last year home teams went 3-2 but the team without h/c won again.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Of course, being better helps, and being much better helps a lot. If we played Minnesota, we would probably win even if all games are on their court. But we also see that home court team wins more often, so home court advantage helps. As Dallas won last two series against us without h/c advantage, we should count them as the favorites now.
I am here to state the obvious.
it came down to some of the most attrocious officiating ever in both games 3&4 in Dallas
this is typical h/c advantage for the NBA. We should expect some atrocious officiating in the places like Dallas and LA. One of the reasons why h/c is important.
I am here to state the obvious.
Those weren’t h/c calls. I expect the home team to get most 50/50 calls. Those smelled like Stern wanting to make sure that SA didn’t go up 3-1 and make a short series of it kinda calls. Although game 3 was officicated by Crawford (which is where the issue with Duncan started) so he may have been doing his madness without word from the top.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I got you. We are getting into logic and I love it!
I just think that this first half, or maybe even 2/3rds of this season doesn’t reflect who this team is. With all mostly healthy, this is as good of a team as the Spurs have had in the last decade.
I love our team. But we didn’t beat Dallas since 2003:
2009 — Dallas defeated San Antonio, 4-1, first round
2006 — Dallas defeated San Antonio, 4-3, conference semifinals
2003 — Dallas lost to San Antonio, 4-2, conference finals
2001 — Dallas lost to San Antonio, 4-1, conference semifinals
I am here to state the obvious.
In ‘06 we were one foul away from winning. Last year, our entire team was limping and Manu didn’t even suit up. Come on, man. Most meaningless stat I’ve seen in a while.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
"I mean, Dartmouth really sucks and Cornell only beat us by 18. Temple will beat the hell out of Cornell. Promise." -- Me
It’s not a stat, it’s a history. OK, we are due to beat them soundly this year.
I am here to state the obvious.
I think he meant it’s meaningless and I gotta agree. Other than 2006 we haven’t had a serious encounter since.
We can beat everybody this season. There is no team which is evidently better than us. We just need to play our game and trust in Manu.
I am here to state the obvious.
TRUST IN MANU!
T.I.M. (Coincidence? I don’t think so).
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney
by bellasa on Apr 13, 2010 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
We have 3(or maybe 2 1/2, since Hill was used sparingly last year, and was nowhere near as good) more perimeter scoring threats than we did last year in that series – Manu, Hill, and RJ are going to cause nightmares for Dallas’ defense, especially since their 2 best guards are so old now.
Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek
Actually we’re down to four. Spurs may open this weekend in Dallas, Utah, Phoenix or Denver. Dallas is the most likey with the other three having about equal chance. I’m not sure why any of those scares you more than any other, especially knowing that there’s valid equally worry on the other side.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
This is kind of where I’m at too. All the teams look good. No one looks perfect. No one wants to play us either. It’s all sorts of awesome this year.
Your awesome = my anxiety attack.
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
If someone is just an NBA fan, the West will be incredible to watch; the first round on its own. The whole thing may be as hyper-competitive as the 2006 playoffs. If you’re a fan of Cleveland or Orlando, you can enjoy your 4-1 1st round series win while watching dominant ball out West.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Fixed: If you’re a fan of Cleveland or Orlando, you can enjoy your 4-0 1 1st round series win.
I am here to state the obvious.
We'll see what happens.
I suppose Denver is the better bet but I remain convinced, that until proven otherwise by a nasty defender or an untimely injury, a Spurs team bearing the divinity of Manu Ginobili and the fundamentals of Tim Duncan cannot be beaten on a basketball floor in a seven game series. How’s that for confidence.
by The Augustus on Apr 13, 2010 12:44 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
I second your confidence… as long as we have a full roster I believe unflinchingly that we can win a championship. To pull it off this year would be one for the books though.
by RamblingSpur on Apr 13, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Spurs playoff draw
It seems fairly likely that the Spurs will play Dallas in the first round. I’d almost rather have them play the Lakers in the first round. We don’t match up well against the Mavericks who have a very solid starting five. Kidd is the weakest link, one that most NBA teams would like to have. Parker is going to have to really work the pick and roll to perfection and hope the perimter shooters are on target because he will have a hard time finishing with the front line length of Dallas. Dallas will take their chances collapsing and to stop Manu and Tony from driving to the basket and let the Spurs try to beat them with 3 pointers from Richardson, Hill and Manu or Tony. Dallas won’t have to double Duncan which means they will have the option of staying on three point shooters who are hot. The Lakers don’t play smart defense like Dallas is doing now. The Spurs are going to have to play much better defense than they have been to beat Dallas.
Compared to the Lakers, Dallas front line is soft. Timmeh and Dice can and should dominate. Dirk is not really playing big, he is just a version of Matt Bonner with better jumper. Tony has a habit of dominating Kidd since NJ Finals. RJ is better than Marion. Manu is much better than Terry. Hill should be able to hold his own against Butler. They don’t really have any advantages outside of Dirk, if we just play our game.
I am here to state the obvious.
Dirk is not really playing big, he is just a version of Matt Bonner with better jumper.
understatement of the year right there
Thinking about it, if Matty could develop a reliable jumper he could become an all-star. I don’t think Dirk is more athletic or playing better D. He is taller though.
I am here to state the obvious.
he creates his own shot for one thing
and I’m not talking about the recent shot creation Bonner has been trying with his penetration
i added the word shot to the second sentence because it sounded dirty without it
Dirk doesn’t drive to the basket too much. He just creates his own fade-away jumper, which works very well for him.
I am here to state the obvious.
Don’t match up well with Dallas? Won’t have to double Duncan? Kidd is their weakest link? I disagree with all three assessments and, meaning no offense, wonder where in the world you came up with these opinions.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
MLPs won’t double Timmy, and no, they prob don’t have to. Timmy’s auto-doubleteam days are done and have been since last year. I don’t agree that Kidd is their weakest link – i think that is Marion though Kidd can be easily dominated by a faster, smart player. They bring some dangers in Butler and Haywood concering solid defense in the paint. Beaubois and Berrera also pose problems if we don’t have HIll chasing them around the perimeter. If they are hot, they are going to be a real handfull. Not that we can’t take the series but it will be a tough one.
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
by Joe deLarios on Apr 13, 2010 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions
No doubt. I just find the defalt idea that the difficulty in matchups runs one way. Of course the Spurs have no one to shut down Dirk. That’s not unique to this year or to the Spurs. Only Stephen Jackson does it really well. But we’ve got some different looks to throw at him and make him work, though none as great as Bowen was (understandibly). He also used to be able to stand on defense and “guard” Bowen or Oberto or Nazr. Now he’ll have to guard RJ or Dyce, plus chase Bonner a bit.
Dallas has no one that can shut down Manu. And their players that are quick enough to stay with Tony aren’t good enough to bother him at the rim or contest his jump shot. And with ball movement they’ll have moments where they’re scrambling to keep up with Tony, Manu, Hill, RJ and whichever big Pop or other 3pt shooter Pop has out there. It all works both ways which is why it won’t be one sided for either team. We can’t shut down Melo either. Or Kobe. Or D-Williams. But unlike last season we have multiple options.
As for Duncan, auto-double team is gone but he still requires a double under a number of circumstances: he’s hitting his banker and his hook; his defender is in foul trouble; his defender is a valuable player that the opponent can’t afford to get in foul trouble or use up his energy on defense (Dirk, Paul, Boozer); the Spurs lead late and the opponent must force an outside shot; a smaller defender gets caught in a switch. It’ll happen plenty, especially in 4th quarters.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
It’s looks good on paper or bits, here is hoping that it pans out just like that. No one can contain Manu and Manu is back in form. You are right that they could not contain Tony last year but Tony is not quiet what he was. Hill is better and so is Bonner. We picked up RJ who seems to be finding his groove a bit. Let’s hope that MLPs new pieces don’t pose to big of a problem for us.
T.I.M.!
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
by Joe deLarios on Apr 13, 2010 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Pop could play everyone as usual in the first half and then sit them in the second half.
Or play the bench like he did last night vs the T-Wolves.
…or not play the starters at all.
…or treat it like any other game and play for the win.
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 1:49 PM CDT reply actions
and regarding the playoff seedings…
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
it’s simple. The Spurs will play the Mavs if and only if the Denver Nuggets shoot 23 percent or greater with their off hand, assuming the votes are tallied from the 2031 Sprite All-Star Vote Off, where robotic Duncan will carry the tally for the cyborg forward position. If not, we’ll play the Washington Generals.
by Cedarpark on Apr 13, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If we play the Generals we’re screwed. They’re due to win!
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I’d love to see Ian get some time in this game to see how he matches up with Dallas. If somehow he could provide some help to our front line, that would be awesome…I know, I’ve been saying that for 3+ months.
Can the Blazers without Roy beat anyone? If so, that would be huge if we were the 6th and h/c against them.
If Boston loses it’s last two games (@ CHI and MIL) and we beat Dallas, we would get h/c against them in a Finals match-up, however unlikely that may be. It’s too late to catch Atlanta.
I do NOT want the Spurs to play Portland without Roy. Doesn’t anyone remember how that worked out for us in the regular season?
Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek
Can the Blazers without Roy beat anyone?
They were able to beat a very motivated OKC last night.
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
come onnnnnnnnnn people phx is shiiiiit….we all know that. Nuggets have the potential to go all the way. Suns = 3 pointers and steve nash. We can neutralize that!
by GodsLoveSpursGlory on Apr 13, 2010 4:17 PM CDT reply actions
OK, I read Blase’s most wonderful post and I’m still a little confused.
Someone please tell me again… how does it work for us to play Chicago in the first round?
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney
Lakers will probably get the second tip on Sunday afternoon. They are likely to split the two Utah, Phoenix or Denver home court games over the two nights with the 9:30 tips. Dallas and Denver are our best hopes at getting a nice 7:30 local tip. A series with Dallas could challenge the East scheduling for good tip times throughout.
They could also try to put us as the second game on Sunday if they put 3 East games on Saturday like I think they did last year. That would probably have Denver or Utah taking the late tip on Saturday and Phoenix/Other one taking the late tip on Sunday with maybe the Lakers taking the prime tip on Sunday. Maybe you flip those Sunday times.
You know, a “good” tip time is pretty subjective. :)
I’m still crossing my fingers for the remote chance of a series against PHX.
Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek
I meant for the team….not me…..
We’re 1-5 against playoff teams when the tip time is 9:00 or later this season. The only win is @ Denver right before the ASB.
The losses are @ UTA, @ POR, @ POR, @ LAL, and @ PHX. Of course of those are tough road games without the late tip too, but 1 of 6 isn’t right.
The first two losses were a back to back (Utah and Portland). The other Portland was a SEGABABA after the @ Sacramento win to start the RRT. The Lakers game was our fourth game of the RRT. I’ve apparently blacked this game out of my memory because I don’t remember anything about it. Did Kobe not play or something? Finally @ Phoenix was also a SEGABABA after an @ Sacramento and also a THIGAFONI starting with our @ LAL win.
At least there won’t be any of that acronym garbage in the playoffs.
I voted for Denver in the second round. Phoenix is looking good, even for being Phoenix. They possess the league’s best offense, and unlike years past they are not the worst defensive team, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency. (In addition, they are actually ranked 5th overall by the Hollinger machine)
Of course the Spurs can beat them, but I think Denver would be an easier out.
Crappy teams fear us !
We may need Denver to get rid of the Lakers. Who would be better against Utah, Phx or Denver?
I am here to state the obvious.
Denver looks bad right now. I dont know if they could beat Los Angeles right now. Especially without HC…
Crappy teams fear us !
Now that the Spurs are healthy and playing well, I would give them a legitimate shot at beating either Denver OR Los Angeles at full strength.
But seeing how those two teams are playing right now ?…I am not concerned about either of them.
Crappy teams fear us !
Remember alamo it’s all about matchups. Denver matches very well with LA, has the size to attack their bigs and can outshoot them by far at the 3pt line. Add in the experience of playing them in the WCF and a 3-1 record this year and they are the team other than SA that can take them down. And if they don’t, they’re likely to extend them into a tough seven game series where Kobe & Gasol have to average 40+ physical minutes per night.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
If Denver wins in the 1st round, they’d have their confidence back and the boost of there coach returning plus the whole feel-good story of it. That would be tough for most teams to overcome so I’d rather have Denver first or, preferrably, have them face LA in the second round.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Doesn’t the league try to avoid giving Utah home games on Sunday? If they get h/c (as #2, 3 or 4 seed) they likely will start on Saturday night.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Due to the Mormon population. I don’t think they ever play Sunday home games during the reg season. You may notice that teams playing there on a Sat night do so on the SEGABABA and then have a few days off. They should play on Sunday but the Jazz don’t allow it. Playoffs are controlled by the league so it does happen but the Jazz prefer that it doesn’t.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Excellent chart, great work. Quick summary:
1. If we lose to Dallas they are 2 and we are 7
2. If we beat Dallas it’s probably still 2 and 7
a. unless GSW somehow beats Portland, giving us the 6
b. or a rare planetary alignment drops Dallas to 3
There’s a lottery-odds chance we play Dallas in a 3-6 matchup.
By pure scenario count, if we are the 6th seed:
DEN: 62.5%
PHX: 25.0% PHX wins both games
DAL: 12.5 % UTA wins both games and PHX beats DEN
So yeah, Dallas is highly likely.
Thank you! It makes this mess of a playoffs so much easier!!
by The Augustus on Apr 13, 2010 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions
So… I guess you really can’t call an “upset” in the Western Conference because it’s so damn deep, right?
Just cause we're crippled, don't mean we gotta take the crumbs.
by silverandblack_davis on Apr 13, 2010 6:49 PM CDT reply actions
Only if OKC beats LA (defending champ out in the firsr round vs playoff novice) or Portland advances without Roy. Everything else is even-steven since seeds don’t matter when the teams are actually seperated by only 1-3 games in the standings.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I’m sure Dallas will be upset after we beat them.
I am here to state the obvious.
by Kondor on Apr 13, 2010 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
bwaaaahhhh.
just think about some of the games our spurs blew in the early season. we could have easily ended up with a higher seed as close as all this is.
Portland without Roy over whomever would be an upset.
Spurs wining first round would not be an upset regardless of seeding.
by doggydogworld on Apr 13, 2010 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions
They’re airing the 2008 game 1 of Spurs vs Suns on NBATV right now
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 8:03 PM CDT reply actions
yes
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions
“Phoenix up by 7—we suck! Why is Bowen in the floor? TImmy is washed up! Oberto is useless! Why can’t Boris Diaw be a Spur?”
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
Hearing Stan Kelly is sooooo weird now.
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions
It’s getting to the good part… Tune into NBATV if you get it!
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Checking the ESPN “experts” poll… Manu got 2 votes for Sixth Man of the Year (the two TrueHoop guys voted for him, while the rest picked Jamal Crawford), while our boy George Hill got an awesome 4 votes for MIP, narrowly edged by Aaron Brooks who got five. Woot.
Just cause we're crippled, don't mean we gotta take the crumbs.
by silverandblack_davis on Apr 13, 2010 8:27 PM CDT reply actions
Manu doesn’t deserve the 6th Man. He played much better as a starter. If they had “The Man of the Year” thing, he would be the leading candidate.
I am here to state the obvious.
I think GQ has that award. He just might be able to pull it off.
Just cause we're crippled, don't mean we gotta take the crumbs.
by silverandblack_davis on Apr 13, 2010 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions
"We'll see how our character is," guard Tony Parker said. "We don't have time to be sad. Nobody cares. It's just us. We're the only ones who can help each other."
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Apr 13, 2010 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions
At least it’s “Men of the Year”… if he was the only one then it’s an insult to all men.
Just cause we're crippled, don't mean we gotta take the crumbs.
by silverandblack_davis on Apr 13, 2010 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, we won’t be playing Denver in the 1st round. Still likely Dallas whether or not we win on Wednesday. But if we move up to #6 it will be Phoenix if they beat Utah. If Utah wins, they go to #2 and we still play Dallas, unless we’re #7 then we play Utah.
Glad this is clearing up…
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I have a hard time seeing Pop go all out for a game that won’t change their placement. I mean Portland playing GSW in Portland is a tough one to believe that Portland will drop.
If Spurs win then the Blazers will go all out to beat GSW so they can be the #6 seed and play Dallas (or Phoenix should they pull the upset in Utah). I want us to win responsibly; Manu playing 25 minutes. Timmy 20. Tony under 30. Dyce around 15. Just enough to keep the guys sharp and playing with Tony and Hill while mixing in the younger guys throughout. But I think winning is important. Tie the season series and show the strength of our bench as we will either play Dallas in round one or two. And keep the momentum rolling forward.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I think the Spurs should tank the last game and Play Dallas in the first round. In my opinion,they are the weakest team in the top 4. Los Angeles, Utah and Phoenix are all better than Dallas.
Haha, it would be funny if the Spurs tried tanking the last game to play Dallas, while the Mavericks also tried to lose in order to avoid the Spurs.
Crappy teams fear us !
They play the earliest of games. Utah might play without Boozer, making it a chance for Phoenix to actually have a chance in Utah. That is the only reason why I think they have a small percentage of a chance. Even without Roy, Portland show mow over Golden State.
I can only imagine the brickfest if both teams tried to tank. It would be like 30 3 pointers attempted in the first half with like 32% fg shooting.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
NBA Playoffs Content Module
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Featured Stories
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- The 10-man rotation, starring your Indiana Pacers
- Blake Griffin highlights, ‘NBA Jam’-style (VIDEO)
- Finally, Shelvin Mack and Robert Pack have a dance dedicated to them (VIDEO)
- Create-a-Caption: Allen Iverson, superfan
- Kobe Bryant-themed Gotye cover song waxes wistful for ‘The Kobe That We Used to Know’ (VIDEO)
