Race for the Playoffs - Are We In? Who might we play?
by GMac14 on Mar 7, 2010 11:52 PM CST
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My original thinking was for this post to be a referendum on how losing Tony Parker wasn’t the end of the world and that the Spurs would be just fine in his absence. I had a lot of good points about Hill getting more minutes (which he has earned), Manu’s resurgence (as only Manu can do), our not trading Mason Jr. (thankfully), RJ being able to get more touches (hopefully continuing his solid play and riding that into the Playoffs), and the fact that a few weeks of resting will be beneficial for Tony and his plethora of leg injuries. But I decided to go in a different direction. Mainly because all I’ve heard recently from every expert who has a microphone or computer in front of them is that the Spurs have a murderous schedule ahead of them, that they used their home-friendly and cupcake schedule to arrive at their current record, and that they will be lucky to hold onto a playoff spot. And then now with Tony out, things have gone from grim to bleak. Now while those statements are certainly up for debate, I’m more concerned about looking forward. And as I’ve learned from reading PTR, nothing gets your point across like numbers and statistics. So I decided to take a look at our “killer schedule” and see just how bad it could get. And just for fun, to compare that with 5 other teams who are with us in the Playoff chase.
Fact: The Spurs play some very tough opponents in the closing months of the season.
But what do the schedules of the teams they are fighting with for a Playoff spot look like. Here’s a breakdown of the remaining schedules for the Spurs, OKC Thunder, Blazers (teams currently in the top 8 of the Western Conference) and the Grizzlies, Rockets, and Hornets (teams on the outside of the top 8 who have a legitimate shot at making the Playoffs). For each team I have included the following: total number of games remaining, the amount of home/away games, home/away records, above/below .500 records, and opponents. From there, I broke the games down into 3 categories: games the team should win (against non-playoff teams), games the team should lose (against the current top 4 seeds in each conference), and most importantly, games that are up in the air – or swing games (against other teams fighting for the playoffs). **(For the breakdown of the categories, I did not take into consideration if the game was home or away. I assumed that a game against the Nets would be a win on the road or at home, just as much as a game against the Lakers would be a loss either place)**
Spurs: Current record 36–24 22-10 Home 14-14 Road
22 Games left (7 W/10 L/5 SG) 9 Home 13 Road
14-21 above .500 22-3 below .500
Wins – NYK, @Minn, LAC, GS, @NJN, @Sac, Minn
Losses - @Cle, @Orl, LAL, Cle, @Atl, @Bos, Orl, @LAL, @Den, @Dal
Swing - @Mia, @OKC, Hou, @Phx, Mem
OKC Thunder: Current record 37–24 19-11 Home 18-13 Road
20 Games left (5 W/6 L/ 9 SG) 11 Home 9 Road
16-21 above .500 21-3 below .500
Wins- NJN, @Indy, @Philly, Minn, @GS
Losses- Utah, LAL, @Bos, @Dal, @Utah, @Den
Swing- NO, @Char, @Tor, SA, Hou, Port, Phx, @Port, Mem
Portland: Current record: 37-27 20-13 Home 17-14 Road
18 Games Left (8 W/5 L/5 SG) 8 Home 10 Away
19-21 above .500 18-6 below .500
Wins- Sac, @GS, @Sac, Wash, NYK, @Sac, @LAC, GS
Losses- @Den, Dal, @Den, Dal, @LAL
Swing- Tor, @Phx, @NO, @OKC, OKC
Memphis: Current record: 32-21 18-14 Home 14-17 Road
19 Games left (6 W/6 L/7 SG) 9 Home 10 Away
16-21 above .500 16-10 below .500
Wins- NJN, NYK, GS, @Sac, @GS, Philly
Losses- @Bos, Den, Dal, @Orl, @Dal, @Den
Swing- Chi, @Hou, @Mil, NO, Hou, @SA, @OKC
Houston: Current record: 31-31 17-14 Home 14-17 Road
20 Games left (7 W/5 L/8 SG) 10 Home 10 Away
17-23 above .500 14-8 below .500
Wins- @Wash, NJN, @NYK, LAC, Wash, @Indy, @Sac
Losses- Den, Bos, LAL, @Bos, Utah
Swing- Mem, @Chi, OKC, @SA, @Mem, Char, @Phx, NO
New Orleans: Current record: 31-32 19-11 Home 18-13 Road
19 Games left (6 W/7 L/6 SG) 10 Home 9 Away
15-26 above .500 16-6 below .500
Wins- GS, @LAC, @GS, Wash, @NJN, Minn
Losses- Den, @Den, @Uta, Dal, Cle, LAL, Utah
Swing- @OKC, @Phx, Port, @Mem, Char, @Hou
Potential Final Records:
OKC 42-30 with 9 Swing games
SA 43-34 with 5 Swing games
Port 45-32 with 5 Swing games
Mem 38-37 with 7 Swing games
Hou 38-36 with 8 Swing games
NO 37-39 with 6 Swing games
So what the heck does all this mean? Well, it could honestly mean nothing and be just a huge waste of time. But I did think this provided at least an indicator of how things might go. Obviously any team can win/lose on a given night against any opponent, but thought this was a good starting point. A few other things did stand out to me.
- Portland looks strong to finish the season ahead of the Spurs, which could move SA to the 8 seed and a potential showdown with the Lakers
- I didn’t realize the Spurs had played so few games in comparison to other NBA teams. So it’s not necessarily just the “toughness” factor of their remaining games, but also the sheer volume.
- The Spurs by far (using my criteria) have the highest amount of potential losses on their upcoming schedule with 10. The next closest is NO, with 7. And we all assume NO is not going to make much of a run at the playoffs with Paul out.
- The Spurs also have the fewest number of swing games left on their schedule, tied with Portland at 5. And I think everyone assumes Portland will make the playoffs.
- Of the teams out of the current top 8, the Rockets seem to hold the most intrigue, having 8 potential swing games remaining (including 2 against Memphis, and 1 against both NO and SA).
- Of the teams in the current top 8, OKC has the most swing games, and actually the most swing games overall with 9. So it will be interesting to see if a young team on the brink of their first playoff run can hold onto their playoff spot with the pressure mounting.
- The Spurs have the most road games remaining with 13. And with only 9 home games, has the biggest road/home differential at -4. But it’s not as big of a difference as one would assume. OKC has a difference of +2, NO has a difference of +1, Houston is even, and both Portland and Memphis have negative differences at -2 and -1.
Taking all that into consideration, I don’t feel as bad about the Spurs remaining schedule. They have things tough, especially without Parker, but so do the rest of the teams in the playoff hunt. And if those numbers weren’t enough, one remaining thing stands out to me. All of these teams are flawed. Portland is still without its 2 starting centers. OKC is young and has no real playoff experience. Memphis is an up and down team with a lot of younger players who haven’t made a playoff run. Same with Houston, who is also trying to incorporate new guys into their rotation. And New Orleans is without Chris Paul and struggling to find scorers to help out David West.
So take heart Spurs fans. The night is always darkest before the first light. And hopefully the dark nights of this last month and a half will lead to the light of a new playoff run.
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I don’t think anyone is really worried about if we make the playoffs but where we sit in the standings. As you said, the schedule is tough but not so tough that we will drop out of the top 8. Call me crazy but I’m not worried about if we draw Denver in the first round. I think we could beat them in a series. Dallas and LA are the only teams that worry me. And Utah but I doubt we’ll meet them at all.
"I've got Tim (Duncan) and you don't. That's the difference." -Gregg Popovich
I guess if we do make the playoffs it would be sort of the same as it was before Tony’s injury. Yes make it to the playoffs, but we’re not gonna make a run.
To serve man.
Gustatus similis pullus.
TBH my main worry is not at point guard. Mace, Hill and Manu can provide enough minutes to get us through this (hopefully). However, Timmeh has been looking a little tired in the second half of every game, especially on defense. He comes out blazing in the first half but just does not look right in the second half. We don’t have enough tall depth to rest him adequately, so hopefully small ball will work more often.
Luckily RJ is regaining his confindence and really stepping it up these days, hopefully that will make life easier for everyone.
If we can land sixth or seventh at the end, I think we have a shot. I don’t care going into a series against Dallas or Denver as the underdog. In this decade, they haven’t faced us as the better team. Pressure is on them :P
In fact, even without Tony, we can make something happen. I think. Faith.
The way the Lakers are dropping games lately, a 6 or 7 seed might lead to an opening round vs. L A.
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
I agree. Kobe isn’t letting that happen. I don’t like the Lakers, but he is too good to let them fall much further.
And I also agree that I’m not concerned about playing Dallas or Denver. I’d like to not face the Mavs, but that’s just because I detest them so much and don’t want to go through that series so early in the playoffs.
I like the way you broke down the remaining schedule, so with that in mind I can see the spurs finishing a strong 6th seed, and after that it’s anybody’s ballgame. I tend not to look through rose colored glasses, but I can see them getting out of that first series (be it mavs, denver or long shot jazz). They match up well with each of those teams, and although the spurs have not performed as I thought they would, the light is a little different come playoff time. There are flaws in all 10 teams (yep i’m including the lakers) looking at the playoffs.
I would love the Spurs to finish at the 6th seed. I really am not a fan of them playing the Mavs, especially in the first round, but I’m ok with anyone else. Phx, Den, Utah, OKC don’t scare me.
I know they just lost to a Lebron-less Cavs team, but I still think they are playing pretty well. They are getting better as the season progresses and as long as they get in the playoffs, they have a chance.
There are flaws in all 10 teams
Yeah I was trying to tell them up above that a first round match-up between the Lakers & Spurs is very possible – though it might not be the most likely.
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
Good work. I agree Portland should climb over the Spurs, so barring an OKC collapse it looks like an 8th seed for the Silver and Black. I don’t see Houston, Memphis or N’awlins suddenly getting hot enough to knock us out entirely.
The remaining schedule (in 2 week slices with your W-L-S) stays soft for a while. The Spurs absolutely must capitalize on that because a 5-10 finish is quite possible.
3/7-3/20: 4-2-1. One L is Cavs who might sit LeBron. Need to go 5-2.
3/21-4/3: 1-5-2. Ugh. Hide sharp objects.
4/4-4/1: 2-3-2. Maybe LA, Denver and Dallas rest their starters?
First round opponent is most likely LA with small chance of Dallas.
In recent games the Spurs looked about as good as I expected them to be at the start of the season. The problem is that the record is not at all as good as I expected to have after 60 games. So it looks like we are not going to have a home court for the playoffs. And nobody ever wins a championship without home court. I would rather get the Lakers in the first round and try to upset them as the 8th seed. Upsetting the Lakers this way would be as sweet as winning the trophy IMHO. And the loss would be just expected. Out of four top teams I like our chances the most against Denver, but beating Denver is not nearly as sweet as beating LA, and losing to Denver is more embarrassing. Also I don’t want to lose to either Dallas or Utah.
We should start rebuilding around Durant
And nobody ever wins a championship without home court.
The 94-95 Rockets beg to differ.
Croissant on the shelf
Ninja-bot activated
You always need a single exception to make the rule stronger. My point was that I believe in our ability to win one playoff series without home court more than in our ability to win four playoff series without home court. And if we are to upset the Lakers, what round is better than the 1st?
We should start rebuilding around Durant
The only better round would be The Finals, which is impossible as long as we’re in the West.
Croissant on the shelf
Ninja-bot activated
The only better round would be The Finals, which is impossible as long as we’re in the West.
If it helps Jolly you will always be east to me (unless you’re on vacation or something.)
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
by olf on Mar 9, 2010 3:41 AM CST up reply actions
Now come on. There’s no need for name calling or personal attacks.
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
I withdraw my irresponsible attempt at humor, and apologize to you and your family.
Croissant on the shelf
Ninja-bot activated
Fair enough. Then I’ll cancel my plans to send my dog over to poop on your lawn. Besides, she’s unreliable. Couple of pounds of good steak and she’d likely switch to your team.
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
by olf on Mar 9, 2010 2:07 PM CST up reply actions
I think it better to say that nobody ever wins a championship without homecourt in the first round. Plenty have done so without h/c in the Finals and conference finals. Many more have made it to the Finals while only having h/c in the first round (Orlando last year being the most recent).
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
I think the home court situation would be important for a younger or less experienced team team (say the Nuggets, Thunder, or Phoenix), but I don’t think it matters much to the Spurs. If they are playing well, doesn’t matter if they are home or away.
And you make a good point Kondor, beating the Lakers at any point would be great, but in the 1st round even better. I just would want them to keep going if they beat the Lakers.
Nothing would be sweeter than getting a trophy after being the 8th seed, no doubt about it. But I just don’t want to be too greedy. Right now we are barely in the playoff picture, so the championship looks a bit out of reach. And young team or old, it is easier to win against a good team at home.
We should start rebuilding around Durant
I think Portland stays at #8. I think you gave them too many wins; I say they split the two games @Sac and split between the road games @GS and LAC, though I could see them winning one of the home games vs Dallas. They should stay aware of Memphis in their rear view.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
If they split both GS and Sac as you say and also split Dallas and their swing games they end up with 46 or 47 wins. The Spurs would have to improve their play dramatically to beat that. Last night was a big step in the wrong direction.
by doggydogworld on Mar 9, 2010 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
Last night was not good for our win column. But let’s not get carried away.
It was a one game step in the wrong direction. Nothing more.
Croissant on the shelf
Ninja-bot activated
I agree. And if you look at how I rated last night’s game, it was supposed to be a loss anyways. So it technically didn’t really change how I projected things.
It just seems like a much worse loss since we had a lead most of the game and lost to a Lebron, Shaq, Illgauskas, Jamison-less team. And let Jawad Williams and Delonte West look like Magic and Larry against us…… ok…so maybe it was a little disheartening…
I certainly wasn’t heartened by it.
Well, except for Manu’s 38.
Croissant on the shelf
Ninja-bot activated
I’m always torn when someone has a good game but loses, not sure whether to feel good or bad about the individual performance. Last night I felt like it was a waste though too. Poor Manu.
"It's Manuway or the Highway" - tlo
And especially since Manu has been struggling all year. Now he’s finally playing good and last night seemed like one of those games where he put the team on his back and was going to carry us to victory. Did you see how frustrated he was when he made that 3 pointer that would have tied it, but his foot was on the line? You gotta feel for him when he puts up a game like that and they still lose.
To be fair, we didn’t have Tony. And may as well not have had RMJ, Blair or Bogans. I also don’t count them as not having Big-Z since he is not actually on their team. That’s like saying that we would’ve beaten them before the trade deadline since they wouldn’t have had Jamison and, with Shaq playing, TD would’ve had more one on one chances to score.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Thanks LD! Appreciate the comment. I really respect your opinions, so any thoughts or criticisms would be cool. Though I didn’t know that Blase would be running a similar post shortly after I ran mine. Guess it was just bad timing, especially since his is on the front page. Guess i’ll just have to have better timing for my next post. : )
Oh I completely understand that. I just have enjoyed reading everyone else’s posts and want my posts to live up to the high standards that have been set. And I want to have original posts and be able to bring some additional perspective to the site. So I was just a little more bummed from that perspective, not that Blase wrote a great post.
Ohhhh.
GMac falls victim to the reply fail. That’s too bad.
But worry ye not, good Mr. 14, it happens to the best of us. May I suggest a greater use of the “Preview” button to escape this fate in the future? =]
Croissant on the shelf
Ninja-bot activated
Then use this instead:
1. After typing comment, hit TAB key (this moves the cursor from the comment/reply window down to highlight the “Preview” button)
2. Hit SPACEBAR (this is the same as clicking the preview button – ENTER key also works)
3. Check to see that you’ve replied to a comment instead of posting new comment (might also want to look at your spelling, punctuation [it’s called an apostrophe, LZ] and formatting).
4. Assuming all is ok, hit SPACEBAR (or ENTER key) again and your comment reply is posted.
5. Smile at having avoided being derided for another instance of Reply Fail.
So, now that we’ve been over it in slow motion, here’s what it’s like in (close to) real time.
Finish typing comment, TAB, SPACEBAR, quick glance, looks good, SPACEBAR, done.
That probably takes even less time than the method you’re using now, LionZion, which I’m guessing is something like (Finish comment, take right hand off keyboard, place right hand on mouse, find cursor somewhere on screen, drag cursor down to “Post” button, click.)
Croissant on the shelf
Ninja-bot activated
I hope the fact that you used 5 steps was accidental. Then I’ll know 5 is in your bones, in your subconscious.
"It's Manuway or the Highway" - tlo
I had four steps written and was about to post, when I thought of the fifth and added it in … without noticing the number of steps.
It’s in the DNA, J. There’s no getting around it.
=]
Croissant on the shelf
Ninja-bot activated
Yeah, I was too busy having a pity party for myself for coming up with a fanpost that somebody else posted like 10 hours later. It just got the better of me…..but I’ll do my best to not let it happen again. : )
I was commenting on his use of 5 in gereral. Not specifically what he wrote for each point. In fact I didn’t even read it, just saw that he had 5 points.
"It's Manuway or the Highway" - tlo
Hah Jolly. Thx. This works. I use a laptop pretty much 90% of the time, so the mouse is the pad and it’s fairly versatile on a mac. But my roots are linux, so I rarely use the mouse for clicking stuff, mainly for scrolling using the finger gestures.
In the end, your algorithm is better suited for me. Just never experimented in all this time to figure the above out.
Glad you like it. The last time I posted about my dual loves, the preview pane and keyboard commands, I was shouted down and/or ignored.
So you use a touchpad? Even slower than a mouse! This will definitely increase your posting speed.
Stay strong with shortcuts!
(Sounds like a slogan for a WWII poster. Something with a dynamic graphic and patriotic colors.)
Alfajores cause mojo! - janieannie
Hmmm, that’s funny. I was paging thru the dictionary and I landed on this.
Anal: to pay excessive attention to detail
And look… there’s even a picture. How cute.
OK, obligatory :) to show JRW this is a joke and I love him very much, somewhat occasionally or not at all. ;)
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney
You may say “excessive” but using the Preview button would have allowed you to see whether your chosen image was going to show or not.
But I’ll bet it WAS really cute. Too bad I’ll have to take your word for it.
Alfajores cause mojo! - janieannie
Here you go… this one is smaller, but it still works.
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney
Play off draw
The way things look right now the Spurs will be playing either the Lakers or the Mavs come playoff time. Looking at these two opponents I honestly believe that SA has a better shot at upsetting LAL than Dallas. With their two new players and the return of their entire bench, Dallas looks extremely potent. They’re jelling and beating all comers. Last count 13 in a row. The Lakers are showing some chinks in their armor, but still would be heavy favorites against the Spurs. So a drop to the eight spot might be a good thing assuming that the Lakers can hold onto the first spot. The teams SA needs to avoid in the playoffs are Dallas and Utah. The Spurs don’t match up well against the Jazz and the Mavericks have too much firepower. We still don’t have anybody to guard Nowitski. I agree with the above comments that SA will get to the first round, but getting into the second will call for a really big turnaround. With Manu starting now, the second unit has become less effective. After studying Jefferson’s game I have come to a conclusion. RJ is a power forward in a small forward’s body. He’s too slow to play the three and his outside shot is very suspect. His drives are easily defended, excepting when the person guarding him doubles up on TD. He can still dunk, but you’ll notice that on many of his drives he is often met at the rim by defenders and has his shot blocked. Older legs?? RJ’s heart is in the game and he hustles hard for rebounds, but the truth is he is on the downside of his careers and falling fast. Maybe the Spurs will be able to include him in a trade before the next Feb. 18 but his contract makes that difficult. Nobody is likely to want him at his price. McDyess has been a better value especially if he comes out of his shooting slump.
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