UPDATED : Race for the Playoffs - Remaining Schedules and Playoff Seeding
by GMac14 on Mar 21, 2010 11:10 PM CDT
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This is an update to my original post from March 8th where I tried to take a look ahead at our schedule and compare it to the other teams in the playoff race. It's been a few weeks and the majority of the teams have played around 7 games. I removed New Orleans from the post (as they appear out of the race) and included Phoenix, who is not that far ahead of these teams in the standings. This includes tonight's loss against the Hawks, in which we couldn't grab a rebound and blew another winnable game.
Below is a quick reminder of how I figured the remaining games to be wins, losses, and swing games. For each team I have included the following: total number of games remaining, the amount of home/away games, home/away records. From there, I broke the games down into 3 categories: games the team should win (against non-playoff teams), games the team should lose (against the current top 4 seeds in each conference), and most importantly, games that are up in the air - or swing games (against other teams fighting for the playoffs). **(For the breakdown of the categories, I did not take into consideration if the game was home or away. I assumed that a game against the Nets would be a win on the road or at home, just as much as a game against the Lakers would be a loss either place)**
Current Standings:
Los Angeles Lakers 51-18
Denver 47-23
Dallas 46-23
Utah 45-25
Phoenix 43-26
Oklahoma City 42-26
San Antonio 41-27
Portland 42-28
--------------------------------------------------
Houston 36-32
Memphis 37-33
Spurs: Current record 41-27 25-10 Home 16-16 Road
14 Games left (3 W/8 L/4 SG) 6 Home 9 Road
5 – 3 since last post
Won all 4 supposed to have won (NYK, @Minn, Lac, GS)
Won 1 swing game (@Mia)
Lost 3 supposed to have lost (@Cle, @Orl, @Atl)
Remaining Games :
Wins – @NJN, @Sac, Minn
Losses – LAL, Cle, @Bos, Orl, @LAL, @Den, @Dal
Swing - @OKC, Hou, @Phx, Mem
OKC Thunder: Current record 42–26 22-11 Home 20-15 Road
14 Games left (3 W/5 L/ 6 SG) 8 Home 6 Road
5 -2 since last post
Won 2 games supposed to have won (@Sac, NJN)
Won 1 game supposed to have lost (Utah)
Won 2 swing games (NO, @Tor)
Lost 1 swing game (@Char) and 1 supposed to have won (@Indy)
Remaining Games:
Wins- @Philly, Minn, @GS
Losses- LAL, @Bos, @Dal, @Utah, @Den
Swing- SA, Hou, Port, Phx, @Port, Mem
Portland: Current record: 42-28 23-13 Home 19-15 Road
12 Games Left (4 W/4 L/4 SG) 5 Home 7 Away
5-1 since last post
Won 4 games supposed to win (Sac, @GS, @Sac, Wash)
Won 1 swing game (Tor)
Lost 1 supposed to lose (@Den)
Remaining Games:
Wins- NYK, @Sac, @LAC, GS
Losses- Dal, @Den, Dal, @LAL
Swing- @Phx, @NO, @OKC, OKC
Memphis: Current record: 37-33 22-15 Home 15-18 Road
12 Games left (3 W/4 L/5 SG) 4 Home 8 Away
5-2 since last post
Won 3 games supposed to win (NJN, NYK, GS)
Won 1 swing game (Chi) and 1 supposed to lose (@Bos)
Lost 1 supposed to lose (Den) and 1 swing game (@Hou)
Remaining Games:
Wins- @Sac, @GS, Philly
Losses-Dal, @Orl, @Dal, @Den
Swing- @Mil, NO, Hou, @SA, @OKC
Houston: Current record: 36-32 20-15 Home 16-17 Road
14 Games left (4 W/3 L/7 SG) 6 Home 8 Away
5-1 since last post
Won 3 games supposed to win (@Wash, NJN, @NYK)
Won 1 game supposed to lose (Den) and 1 swing game (Mem)
Lost 1 supposed to lose (Bos)
Remaining Games:
Wins- LAC, Wash, @Indy, @Sac
Losses- LAL, @Bos, Utah
Swing- @Chi, OKC, @SA, @Mem, Char, @Phx, NO
Phoenix: Current record: 43-26 27-9 Home 16-17 Road
13 Games left (5 W/2 L/6 SG) 5 Home 8 Away
Remaining Games:
Wins- @GS, @NYK, @Minn, @NJN, @Det
Losses- Den, @Utah
Swing- Port, @Chi, @Mil, SA, @OKC, Hou
Potential Final Records:
Phx 48-28 with 6 Swing games
Port 46-32 with 4 Swing games
OKC 45-31 with 6 Swing games
SA 44-34 with 4 Swing games
Hou 40-35 with 7 Swing games
Mem 39-37 with 5 Swing games
Obviously any team can win/lose on a given night against any opponent, but thought this was a good starting point. A few other things did stand out to me.
- Houston looks to be the only team currently outside of the playoffs who has a chance to make a move. They have a lot of swing games and could really make a push for the 8th seed
- Portland has been on a huge tear lately, so if they keep winning, they might move up.
- It really looks like we’re going to be in the 7th or 8th seed, so we should gear up for a 1st round match up against the Nuggets or Lakers.
- We also might catch a break the last few games of the season as Denver and Dallas might rest some of their starters against us. Those could turn into important wins. Although I doubt either of those teams wants to do us any favors.
- Our remaining schedule is tough, but so are the schedules for everyone else in the West playoff race.
One last thought. I do believe getting Tony Parker back for the playoffs will be crucial. He may not be 100% right away, but the Spurs need him. I’ve noticed a lot of talk lately about Parker not being needed and how we should get rid of him, but I think everyone is putting a little too much stock into our team’s performance against the Warriors and Clippers. We need Parker to beat good teams. We need Parker to beat the best teams in the league. He gives our offense a dimension that nobody else does. Tony leading our starters and Manu leading the bench is the best way for our offense to thrive and the team’s best chance to win. I’m still optimistic about what this team can do. RJ is turning things around, and if McDyess decides to ever wake up and play, we could be dangerous come playoff time. We might just be a lower seed than most of us had hoped or expected this year.
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Nice update. It looks like everyone is playing as well or better than expected. The Spurs looked great in the 1st quarter against Atlanta, but of course they cooled off before half-time. They are still losing consistently to elite teams. I don’t think I ever have seen a team that would be so consistently mediocre.
We should start rebuilding around Durant
You’re right about the consistency. If we could just play sub-.500 teams in the playoffs we’d sweep all four rounds.
by doggydogworld on Mar 22, 2010 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Here’s the forecast assuming the home team wins every swing game:
5. Phoenix 51-31
6. OKC 50-32
7. Portland 47-35
8. Spurs 46-36
A win tonight at OKC would put us ahead of them in the current standings but wouldn’t really affect the final standings unless it shatters their young psyches and sends them into a tailspin. Portland is the real target. We must beat OKC or LA, if we lose both we’ll fall to 8th and probably be stuck there for the duration. Hello Lakers!
I agree that I’m very interested in tonight’s game against OKC. I’ve been wondering how that team would hold up down the stretch as the pressure mounts. They’ve looked good, but I’m not sure how long the young team can hang on. Also, looks like we’re catching another break with Bynum out for the Lakers. So we get them not at full strength again.
For any single game they’re probably better with Bynum out. Pau playing 46 minutes and Odom at the 4 is a bigger problem for us. Of course Pau can’t play 46 every game, so Bynum is important over the course of a season.
by doggydogworld on Mar 22, 2010 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Could you add a fourth category: wins given away? @Cleveland and @Atlanta fall into that category and I would not be surprised to see another road game or two end the same way. Perhaps @Boston or @Denver?
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Those two games were planned as losses, so we actually played them better than expected. Of course, Cleveland chose to play their bench against us, so we should have won. Atlanta just wanted the win more than us. We were better team yesterday, but couldn’t close the deal. Atlanta has this ability to win home games against superior opposition, especially with friendly whistle.
We should start rebuilding around Durant
Exactly Kondor. Both the Cleveland and Atlanta games were looked at as potential losses. The Cavs game just looked bad because of the guys who didn’t play. And another great point that if that game was in San Antonio, I’m not sure the Hawks make that big run when they get down. They are truly a team that feeds off the emotion of their crowd.
I’m sure there will be another game or two that we’ll lose when we should win SpurredOn. The Boston game makes sense, ya know, when Finley drops 40 to stick it to us for not playing him.
He’d have to play nearly 40 minutes to even approach that which I think is way beyond his ability. More likely that Pierce won’t play and we’ll lose after blowing a 4th quarter lead.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
True, or we’ll lose one of the last games of the year when the Mavs are sitting Dirk and Kidd or the Nuggets are sitting Melo and Billups.
I think it will be interesting to see if we’ve got a playoff spot locked up, if Pop decides to rest Timmy those last few games. Especially if that’s when Tony is supposed to be coming back. Does he focus on getting the chemistry back or getting Timmy and Manu a little rest before the playoffs.
Excellent question. Pop and other coaches in the West will have some decisions about rest versus seeding. If h/c is not an issue, resting older guys for a game or two may be the best option.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
if that game was in San Antonio, I’m not sure the Hawks make that big run
They also don’t get the majority of the calls go their way.
Yeah, I heard the officiating for both of the last 2 games has been a little suspect. To put it nicely. Hopefully we can get a few calls for the Lakers and Cavs games since they are at home. Although we’ll probably get Joey Crawford for them or something..
I thought Stern’s memo said that Kobe and LbJ receive all officiating breaks regardless of arena.
You gotta bring ass to get ass.
Where’s Utah in the projections? The Mavs are in a bit of a funk, too. Either way, thanks for the updates, GMac.
by silverandblack_davis on Mar 22, 2010 9:54 PM CDT reply actions
Utah is at 46-25 with 11 games remaining
4 games at home and 7 on the road
Home – NYK, GS, OKC, Phx
Away – @Tor, @Indiana, @Wash, @LAL, @Hou, @NO, @GS
So I figure at least 6 wins, with 1 loss to LA. A few swing games of OKC, Phx, @Tor (maybe), and @Houston. So I can see them pretty easily at around 52 wins, but most likely a little higher. Which would put them at about the 4 seed where they currently are sitting.
Yeah, Utah could sit their starters and get to 51-52 wins. They’re out of reach.
by doggydogworld on Mar 23, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
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