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Officiency


I wanted to take a minute to briefly discuss one of my favorite player stats, points per shot or PPS.  It is a simple stat, points scored divided by field goal attempts.  If you shoot threes, then you score more points per attempts.  If you get fouled you get freebies to boost the stat.

The stat is a great measure of scoring intangibles.  Let's just say Manu always looks like Superman in this stat.

Star-divide

I'm going to look at the Spurs positionally (per ESPN's breakdown).  I won't look at our end of the bench guys, but Mahinmi currently leads the team scoring an amazing 1.91 pps.  Manu is second with 1.34.  We'll chalk Mahinmi's freakish number up to small sample size, garbage minutes, and bigs having an advantage in the stat (higher percentage scoring and more free throw attempts).  Another small sample size guy is Hairston who is 4th on the team with an impressive 1.30.  Offensively, the guy deserves more minutes, especially over Mason, but we'll get to that.

 

Point Guard: Two Scoring Machines

Billups leads the rankings here at 1.55 pps.  Tony Parker is currently tied for 9th at 1.26 pps.  This is slightly higher than his career average but lower than his peak season of 1.33 in 2005-06.  We know he has been playing hurt though.

Hill, however, is up to 1.32 pps which puts him in 6th, right after Chris Paul (1.37), Steve Nash (1.35), and Deron Williams (1.34).  Hill has been amazing shooting the 3 this season and draws more contact than most PG's.  He is currently 18th in FTA's for PG's yet only 2 players above him score less per game.  (Sorry, I couldn't find a good stat listing for PG FTA/FGA.)

So that is 2 of the top 10 pps point guards.

 

Shooting Guard: The Prince and the Pauper

Manu is good.  Real good.  I mentioned he leads our rotation with 1.34.  He is currently third on the rankings behind Brandon Roy (1.37) and Eric Gordon (1.36).  He is ahead of Wade (1.33), Jamal Crawford (1.31), Ray Allen (1.31), Anthony Morrow (1.29), Kobe Bryant (1.25), and Jason Terry (1.24) rounding out the top 9.

Mason is horrendous at 1.05.  He has had 3 years with high volume shots.  His last year in Washington netted him a 1.21 pps.  Last year, he fell a little to 1.17 but we were asking him to do more things than Washington.  This year he has plummeted to 1.05.  He needs to get back on track or ride the end of the bench (in terms of scoring).

 

Small Forward:  As Shocked as You

Jefferson is at 1.23 which is 9th on the team and the 9th best SF!  That is crazy(!).  The small forward top 10 rankings look like this: Maggette (1.58), Gerald Wallace (1.50), Paul Pierce (1.49), LeBron James (1.49), Kevin Durant (1.47), Carmelo Anthony (1.33), Grant Hill (1.31), Danny Granger (1.29), Richard Jefferson (1.23), and Rudy Gay/Luol Deng (1.22).

That is some excellent company even with the relatively sharp drop off from Durant to Anthony and slightly less from Granger to RJ.

I mentioned Hairston at 1.30 earlier.  You see he fits in between Grant Hill and Granger if he qualified.

Bogans also does not shoot enough to qualify, but at 1.17 pps falls between Al Thornton (1.19, 13th) and Artest (1.16, 14th).


Power Forward: No One Shows Up

I'm going by ESPN's player designations.  Bonner, Blair, and McDyess are power forwards and Duncan is a center.  None of our PF's qualify.  Before I tell you where they fall, here is a general picture of the range of values.  Your top 10 are alot of big names ranging in value from 1.49 to 1.31.  In order, the top 9 are Landry, Stoudemire, Bosh, Boozer, Gasol, Millsap, Nowitzki, Garnett, and Josh Smith/Gallinari.  Kenyon Martin is 29th and the lowest qualified PF at 1.08.

McDyess is our worst big at 1.06.  He would be below Kenyon and is only slightly better than Mason.  He is down from his career average of 1.21.  He finished the last two seasons with Detroit with a 1.14 which places him with Beasley and Thaddeus Young.  Both years, he stepped it up in the playoffs finishing with a 1.18 and 1.27 though.

Blair at 1.27 would be between #10 J. Smith/Gallinari (1.31) and #11 Troy Murphy (1.26).  Not bad for a rookie who earns time rebounding.  He is currently tied for third for rookies with DeRozan and Harden, and only Lawson and Wesley Matthews are ahead of them.  He'd also be a lot a closer to the top 10 if he shot just 10% better from the free throw line.

Bonner at 1.31 would tie Josh Smith and Gallinari for 10th.  That means with Blair, we get two players who give us two way different offensive looks but can score at an effiency level of two the top 10 scoring PF's.


Center: You Thought This Was Officient?

Tim Duncan uncharacteristically sits at 4th of the rotation players at 1.29 which puts him as the 11th center between Okafor and Frye.  D. Howard leads the centers and the league at 1.81 (can the guy get more touches, please?).  Nene is second at 1.57.

I wanted to compare Duncan's numbers to the playoffs, but they don't compare as great as I thought they would.  Sure, he goes from an outstanding regular season number of 1.32 to an even more outstanding playoff number of 1.35, but playoff numbers are more easily effected by injuries since there are fewer games.  Duncan was great but not so great the last two years.  If you look at 05-06 Duncan though, he had a 1.60!  In the playoffs! Playing tough opponents every game! That is freakish.

I've also heard Duncan is told to take more jump shots/bankers in the regular season but is given more freedom from Pop to bang in the playoffs.  If that is true, as I haven't verified it, then his efficiency would surely go up with more points in the paint and more free throw attempts from the physical play. 

 

The Team

In case you weren't keeping track:

PG: 6th and 9th

SG: 3rd...Mason is falling way short of getting a rank

SF: 9th and a limited minutes player (Hairston) who falls in the 7.5 area.  Bogans is still efficient too.

PF:  Blair and Bonner combine for about a 10th ranked pps using their unique styles.  Dice should get better in the postseason too.

C:  The greatest of all time balances everything else he does on the court by being the 11th most efficient regular season scorer at his position on assumed less physical play calling for the regular season.

There are 30 teams in the NBA by the way.  Sixteen get to go to the playoffs.


Current Snapshot

Here is the team ranked by PPS for March games with their attempts in parentheses.

1.62 Hairston (13)
1.53 Hill (76)
1.52 Manu (87)
1.44 Bonner (54)
1.33 Mahinmi (9)
1.29 Jefferson (55)
1.21 Bogans (33)
1.14 Duncan (92)
1.04 Blair (45)
0.77 McDyess (31)
0.71 Mason (34)

If only there were good stats for defense....

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Good stuff, BlaseE.

I’m not surprised to see RJ with a respectable PPS. He normally is the most athletic player on the floor and when he does not settle for his funky fadeaway, he generally either finishes or gets fouled. My problem with him is always the shots he doesn’t take. Like when he went 1 for 3 against the Cavs. Having a great PPS only matters if he takes shots. As we have said many times, RJ’s problem isn’t his skill set, it’s the fact that he tends to hide during the game.

"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles

by Fred Silva on Mar 16, 2010 2:26 PM CDT reply actions  

yeah, not good that he only has 1 more attempt than Bonner over the first 7 games of March…..

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don’t like PPS much. It over-rewards free throws. You improve your score more by making 1 of 2 free throws than by making a field goal. That’s insane.

PPS also unjustly rewards players who shoot techs and get intentionally fouled at the end of close games.

by doggydogworld on Mar 16, 2010 2:27 PM CDT reply actions  

I doubt technicals add up to much over a season. Similarly, clutch free throws should only really effect one player on a team. If it effects a whole team then it’s probably spread around enough to not effect them….conundrum.

It’s a simple measure and is just a number for comparison. I wouldn’t base rotations around it but it gives insight.

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

To sort of temper what doggy says above, I think PPS is great if taken in conjunction with the said players FT %. Like in the case of Manu, if the guy converts free throws at a high rate, then PPS is a good measure. But a player like Blair or Timmeh with possible stretches of poor free throw percentages, it is not the most reliable measure of their efficiency, especially in hard fought games with a lot of penalty time played by both teams.

by LionZion on Mar 16, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think doggy’s point is even more of a factor for guys who get fouled and make the shots at a high rate. He doesn’t like the number because free throws infinitely boost the number and negate FGAs

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Dwight Howard’s PPS is astronomical though, despite the bad FT shooting.

by silverandblack_davis on Mar 17, 2010 3:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

He is #1 in total free throw attempts though and still 11th in makes per game at 6.1. It helps him a lot. That is 6.1 bonus points while canceling a little more than 5 of his attempts per game.

by BlaseE on Mar 17, 2010 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

5 of his field goal attempts not free throw

by BlaseE on Mar 17, 2010 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

Somebody explain to me how PPS is bettered by making only 1 of 2 FTs instead of getting 2pts for converting a regular attempt?

by LionZion on Mar 16, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Because you don’t have to be attempting a FG to get FT’s.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 16, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

a foul negates the FGA so if you get fouled once and make 1 of 2 and then make 1 3 pointer and thats all you do that game, then you get 4.00 pps…free throws boost the numerator without effecting the denominator

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

This goes back to what I said about the penalty. But whats wrong with making 2 of 2 FTs. Wouldn’t that reward the player more?

by LionZion on Mar 16, 2010 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah, but it helps the team the same….one of doggy’s points is that its better to shoot 50% from the line and get fouled a lot then finish even though you score less for the team, you look really efficient

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

better for the player vs better/equal for the team

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

The other thing I really like about PPS is that it does reward free throws. In general, I think free throws are a good measure of how physical you are on offense, and its my opinion that being physical pays off.

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Free throws should definitely be rewarded, but they should be counted as attempts. Getting to the line can be the most efficient way to score (if your name’s not Dwight) but it’s not infinitely efficient.

Take two guys who each try to score on 10 plays. One guy makes 6-10 for 12 points and a PPS of 1.2. Good game, bud. The other only makes two shots but gets fouled twice and makes 3-4 FTs. He also shoots a tech and gets intentionally fouled twice in the final seconds, making 3-5. That’s a bad night. Getting an inefficient 7 points out of his 10 scoring attempts hurts the team. But his PPS is 1.25, better than the player who had the good night.

by doggydogworld on Mar 16, 2010 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think the math is wrong.

3-4 + 3-5 = 6 pts?
2 shots made = 4 pts?
Total = 10 pts
PPS = 1.0

by LionZion on Mar 16, 2010 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

the two shots he got fouled on are negated so 10/8=1.25

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly. If you get fouled and miss it doesn’t count as Field Goal Attempt. So he was officially 2-8 from the field.

by doggydogworld on Mar 16, 2010 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wow, that is one ugly, ugly number for Mason.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 16, 2010 2:42 PM CDT reply actions  

I think it’s pretty safe to say that Mason will be off the books this summer. This makes way for our current D-League call-up strategy to utilize Hairston, Jackson, and Temple (I don’t care if he hasn’t even played yet. Let’s keep him if he can play D like he’s been described).

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on Mar 16, 2010 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

jerrells is just as likely of making next year’s roster as either of those guys (jackson or temple)

I’d like to see another true PG on the roster since Hill is so useful at SG. I also wouldn’t mind seeing Nando in summer league if that’s possible. He isn’t a true PG but adding another hybrid could be good too since that is what the team is used to.

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

That’s true. I completely forgot about them. Nando might have a pretty good chance. I’m not so sure about Jerrells, but he is a possibility and has an edge in the system.

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on Mar 16, 2010 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m definitely not sure on Jerrells either but all 4 we’ve named are projects. I’ll put my faith behind whoever the Spurs scout as the best potential rotation guy. We definitely should not waste a draft pick on a PG project at this point. Drafting a big and/or wing that can compete for minutes next season is a must.

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’ve been very interested in Quincy Pondexter as a 6’6"-6’7" SF. He’s described as being valued for his defense first while still being a good option on the offense & can hit 3s. He’s also very attainable based off his current ranking @ #23 while our pick is #20. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Quincy-Pondexter-1122/

They have us picking James Andersen, whom they describe as being a 6’4" SG & a pretty bad defender—Next!

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on Mar 16, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

DX mock drafts don’t consider team needs, so it’s not surprising they have us drafting the last thing we could ever need.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 16, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I figured that, so I’ve been wondering what kind of system they use.

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on Mar 16, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Don’t be dissing James. Anderson is actually a legitimate 6’-6" and a decent defender. As much as I’d love to see “Big Game” James in a Spurs uni, he doesn’t play the position that the Spurs need.

by CapHill on Mar 16, 2010 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nando is a Manu-like passer, by many accounts. I am very curious to see what he could do for us… but the turnover numbers are so, so bad with him.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 16, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also, I don’t think Nando comes over for any less than the BAE. Maybe not even then.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 16, 2010 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

True, money is an issue. Let him stay in France another year, I say.

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on Mar 16, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, and what’s really bad is that most Euro players will NOT play in SL unless they’ve already been given an NBA contract. So, we won’t really know what we have stashed away until we show him the money.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 16, 2010 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

That could be good though because it could firm up our needs so we focus on other positions.

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don’t think he’d see enough minutes to truly mess us up with his turnovers the first season we had him.

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Great write up BlaseE! These articles you been putting up are great! I think that RJ’s problem all year is the lack of aggressiveness and I think these numbers bare that out. If he would would take more aggressive towards the rim shots his scoring would be up and I think this team would have a much better record and chance at a ’chip.

by Big50 on Mar 16, 2010 2:51 PM CDT reply actions  

off-topic

Has anyone looked at the games tonight? The average win differential between teams is 21.5 games. Our game and Chicago/Memphis are the most competitive at 4. Bobcats and Pacers is the only other game with less than 24 wins between the two teams, but even their 13 wins is a large margin.

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:34 PM CDT reply actions  

With Chicago’s injuries, I doubt it’ll be a ball game, though. Lakers & Kings might end up better than expected.

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on Mar 16, 2010 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’ll be rooting for a miracle in Phoenix for the Wolves…..I won’t waste any mojo on that though

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wonder if that game sold out… might be worth watching if it’s not blacked out here.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 16, 2010 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

A Phoenix loss & a Spurs win would be very nice. Plus, that Minny losing streak has to end some time, right? Lol

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair

by Manu ex Machina on Mar 16, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I was just looking at the standings and the Northwest is the new Southwest making Minny the new Memphis

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, all five SW teams looked like threats to make the playoffs at various times during the season, but at the end we all bow down to the mighty NW.

by doggydogworld on Mar 16, 2010 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

even with Portland’s injuries, they continue to win tons of games

by BlaseE on Mar 16, 2010 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Let’s just say Manu always looks like Superman in this stat.

It means that the stat is a great measure of a player’s contribution.

We should start rebuilding around Durant

by Kondor on Mar 16, 2010 4:44 PM CDT reply actions  

Great stuff Blase!

by JaySo on Mar 16, 2010 5:24 PM CDT reply actions  

Manu is such a statistical freak. Great job, Blase.

by silverandblack_davis on Mar 17, 2010 3:38 AM CDT reply actions  

So I was curious to see what some players would look like if I took their free throw points out of the equation.

There are the numbers for these 4 players if you took (PTS-FTM)/FGA. Obviously this number has just as many flaws as PPS, but I still found it interesting. I’ll put their difference in parentheses.

Durant 1.03 (-.44) I picked him because he leads the league in FTM per game.
Howard 1.08 (-.73) I picked him because he leads the league in both PPS and total FTA.
Bryant 0.97 (-.29) I picked him as a compliment to his skillz.
Ginobili 1.00 (-.35)
Duncan 1.02 (-.26)
Jefferson 1.00 (-.24)
Mason 0.99 (-.06) He only has 30 free throw attempts all season.
Hill 1.07 (-.25)
Parker 1.00 (-.26)

So I’m thinking the stat needs to go to another decimal place since so many people normalize to 1.00. For comparison, subtracting 1.00 and multiplying by 100 might give a nice number to rank players by. I think PPS is a great measure of agressiveness, but this new number seems to measure ability to finish. I’m not sure why Kobe is hurt so bad by it yet Hill looks like a god…by the stat.

The rate at which you are effected by free throws also seems like a good measure of something. Perhaps it is pulling the aggressiveness measure out of the PPS stat, boiling it down, so to say.

by BlaseE on Mar 17, 2010 9:30 AM CDT reply actions  

The stats that you and Wayne are coming up with only prove that Cubits is amazing. :D

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 17, 2010 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

Last night on NBA TV, Steve Smith was saying that George Hill may go down as the most underrated player of his generation. Not sure if that was in the game thread or in a fanshot.

by BlaseE on Mar 17, 2010 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

Kelly Dwyer disapproves.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 17, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

Bonner 1.19 (-.11)

Points / scoring chances is what I’m after. Scoring chances is basically FGA plus trips to the line. If not for And-1s you could just use FGA + FTA/2. Dwight Howard would come in around 1.2 on this metric, good but no better than Matt Bonner and not nearly what he could be if he shot better from the line. Manu would be around 1.15 but climbing.

BTW, Phoenix’s team PPS last night was 1.55……

by doggydogworld on Mar 17, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, 152 points in regulation is ridiculous in the modern NBA.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 17, 2010 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mason is ranked 346 out of 364 player rankings (a bunch of people at 364 for players who only took 1 or 2 attempts without a make) in PPS for March but none of the players below or above until McDyess at 337 have more shot attempts than Mason’s 37. We’re letting two of the least efficient players this month (over a small sample size) take a lot of shots. Dice has taken 40. That’s 77 shots by two of the lowest 10% of players in terms of PPS.

Finley is playing like a champ on offense in case no one noticed too. He is 39th at 1.54 pps ahead of every Spur for the month, even Hill and Manu…..on far less shots, but still….

by BlaseE on Mar 17, 2010 3:15 PM CDT reply actions  

I totally made fun of Fin in today’s game thread.

Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek

by Tim C. on Mar 17, 2010 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hopefully, FinDog will cool off by the time we meet Boston in the Finals. But I think he looks good in green.

We should start rebuilding around Durant

by Kondor on Mar 17, 2010 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

After our game against the Dubs, I wonder what the team PPS looks like from that.

Also, I hope Wayne made a chart of his court positional efficiencies. All our guys should have astronomical numbers.

by LionZion on Mar 20, 2010 10:54 AM CDT reply actions  

1.53 as a team last night

Bonner lead the team with a 2.33 followed by Duncan’s 2.13 and RJ’s 2.10.

Mason was the only player with less points (4) than FGA’s (7). He is just really in a funk.

by BlaseE on Mar 20, 2010 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

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