The Double-Edged Sword of Blaming Players for Losses
The Spurs currently sit at 39-25. Last year we finished with 54 wins. Well that pace would have us at 42-22 through our 62 games. So 3 games going the other way....that's not a lot, but I had so many more excuses for last season's record. I mean if Manu and Tony and TD had been healthy, we could have won 65 (more or less random number) games last year.
Clearly we are underachieving yet most statistical analysis shows the team as solid. Hollinger has us as 5th right now yet we are 11th in the league standings. All of this bothered me so come see the results of me searching for who is at fault for our record after the jump....
It's not Pop....to me.
Before I get started I want to explain something, my title. Unlike some people who are readily searching for solutions to the roster next season, I still believe that we can win and win big this year. So I am eager to see how RJ or Bonner has impacted our record, but I am also eager to see how that may play into our playoff success. So as much as I am pointing the finger and calling out these players. I am in no way saying we trade, cut or move on from any of them. I love our team and I love our players. So my question is not all Winston-48MoH-like in terms of "who do we need to play?" but rather "what can this player do in the rotation Pop has set to win more games for us?". Who is shooting us out of games? Who won't take their shots in losses? Who isn't distributing the ball in losses? Who isn't rebounding? Who is taking too many threes? Who gets the point?
So I present the following table:
Now I'm going to pull a half Varner. I'll point to some conclusions from the table, but hopefully you, the intelligent reader, can use the table and draw more in the comments. I changed it to a half Varner because I wrote more than I thought I was.
Talking Points and Conclusions
Injuries: Those records without Bonner or Parker. They aren't far from the season percentages, but 13 losses without either of them accounts for over half our losses. It's also worth noting Bonner played some very crappy minutes and some very crappy basketball coming back from his hand injury. His numbers are way up now.
Hill and Manu: I'm going to group them together here, but why are Hill and Manu taking 3.1 more shotsminutes but scoring 4.4 less points per 48 minutes in our losses. Hill is taking too many threes in our losses and Manu is shooting 10% lower from the field.
But on the positive note, both are playing out of this world recently. Maintaining their momentum could be the key to getting a good seed and succeeding in the playoffs. I, along with others, suggested Parker take his turn as "Manu "and be the 6th man. It works better with the acquisition of RJ. It puts Parker logging more minutes with Duncan (one of the last of the starters off the court usually), Mason, Bonner, and Bogans. In other words, the shooters and line up type Parker is used to playing with and dominating for. It just makes simple sense to me.
Duncan, Parker and Blair are pretty consistent scorers in wins and losses. Duncan loses some rebounds and Parker loses some assists, but they shoot about the same though. Duncan amazingly gets more free throws in our losses. Please no Hack-a-Duncan!
In terms of going forward, I was disappointed to see Duncan and Parker playing more minutes in losses, but it makes sense. It's easier to pull them for near outlier type minutes in games like the Clippers one than it is to throw in the towel. To quote one of my favorite songs ever, "for all the wars I've come to know, it's punches pulled not towels thrown in." The Spurs are more likely to hold back in a blowout than give up on a fight. Even with that said, you see Duncan and Manu under tight rotation control. In the playoffs, Pop [in his play calling and rotations] and Duncan, Parker and Manu [in their minutes and efforts] won't be pulling punches.
Blair is the only player in the rotation that shoots better and scores more per 48 minutes in games we lost. Without researching it, I know our win loss record points more wins to sub-.500 and more losses to +.500 teams. This could mean Blair is equally efficient against good and bad opponents. His rebounding drop is about equal to Duncan's but less forgivable.
Live or Die by the Three: First, ignore Parker's 3 point percentage differential as his attempts are super low. He attempts more of them when we are losing, but he shoots them so infrequently that missing clutch ones he has to take really hurts him.
Mason, Manu, and Hill all shoot worse from three in our losses, but its in the 8-10% range. They are also all taking more threes in our losses. A lot more threes. By volume, their shots might be keeping their percentage higher than it should be, or defenses are forcing them into bad shots.
Bonner, Bogans, and Jefferson are far worse. They shoot between 17.3-23.5% worse from three in our losses. Jefferson takes about the same number of attempts. His percentage bothers me, but I don't like him taking 3's to begin with. Bogans and Bonner, on the other hand, are taking 3.6 less 3 points attempts per 48 minutes in our losses. Those are the shots we need these guys to take. Those are the shots we need these guys to make. Bogans and Bonner lead the team in scoring differential between wins and losses. Both are at around 7.0 more points per 48 minutes in games we've won. That is disgusting. You can debate if this is symptomatic or the cause of a problem. I like to think it works both ways.
Dice: Dice takes long 2's for the most part. In games we win, he is shooting 10% better. More than that though, he scores 2.6 more points per 48 minutes on the same number of shots. Dice is massively less effective scoring in our losses. I've heard rumors that he is Horry-esque in terms of holding back for the stretch-run/playoffs. If that is true, that will be a HUGE plus.
Jefferson: In wins, he averages 5.8 more points, 1.1 more rebounds, and 1.1 more assists per 48 minutes. He plays the third most minutes on the team behind Duncan and Parker so his 8.0 PTS+REB+AST is far more impactful than Bogan's 8.7. People are quick to blame RJ for our record but the fact is that he is far better in our victories creating such large differentials. This is the silver lining. It means he can be so much more than those terrible loss performances, or to put it another word, he do what RC and Pop traded for him to do.
Remember, he has a good amount of playoff experience and isn't in the athletic decline (sorry) Dice is. He knows he needs to step it up now and then go even further in the playoffs. I am with everyone else in being disappointed with Jefferson thus far, but he may also be our playoff savior. So as much as you are prone to blame him, know that he will be getting heavy minutes in the playoffs and his success will be our success.
I plan to do another Standings Perspective (with a twist of projection) soon, but I'll probably wait until at least after the Orlando game. If we win @ Miami and @ Orlando back to back, we will reach 9-1 in our L10 for the first time this season. Have faith and believe the Spurs are pulling a Spurs by finishing far stronger than they started.
Thanks for reading and GO SPURS GO!
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That was meant to be a playful jab at people speculating about next season as I have been known to link to draft predictions and the even evaluate the trade value of RJ next season myself.
Hopefully no one takes it personal like me calling our their Spurs fandom or anything.
I was talking to a friend about how unsettling it is that our season’s success rests in the hands of Jefferson. When he plays well, the Spurs win in a much easier fashion than when he sucks. When RJ hides, it seems the team almost has to overcome his bad play more than the opponent itself to win the game. The 5.8 more points in victories makes perfect sense to me.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
Yeah, the +2.0 shot attempts per 48 minutes is equally concerning to the 5.8 points. Comparing him to Parker, they both see 2 less shots per 48 minutes and 1.4 less minutes in our losses, yet Parker finds a way to only score 1.7 less points, not Jefferson’s 5.8. Maybe it points to Parker’s .5 more FTA’s in losses yet RJ sees .8 less (per 48 minutes). Do the math on that for Parker, he is taking 2 less shots but getting .5 more FTA’s in losing efforts. That is willing yourself into scoring.
I was talking to a friend about how unsettling it is that our season’s success rests in the hands of Jefferson.
Well, it reduces the amount that rides in Bonner and Mason’s hands. They really let us down last year, but are in more fitting roles/minute allocations now.
RJ just reminds me of Vince Carter a little too much. Consistently the most athletic player on the floor but could be in for 4 minutes and leave you thinking, “I wonder when Pop will put RJ in the game?”
And they both have a tendency to walk around with their mouths open, which to me lowers their basketball IQ by at least 50%.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
I was curious if there was any objective measure of BBIQ. Now you suggested at least one. How about sticking your mouth guard out? It seems that half of the league is doing that, though I never noticed any Spur doing it. If Stern worries about the players looking professional, he would better do something about it instead of imposing some senseless dress code.
We should start rebuilding around Durant
Put the neck tattoo on the list. Also, the sleeve that guys wear seems to be a bad omen in most cases. And names that start with ‘Ar’ and end with ‘test.’
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
Nicknames like “Answer”, “Agent 0”, “Franchise” or “Starbury” seem to correlate with low general IQ, while any nickname with the words “Admiral” or “Fundamental” in it predicts Hall of Fame career.
We should start rebuilding around Durant
Can I give myself the nickname “Admiral Fundamental” and test your theory?
Alfajores cause mojo! - janieannie
by J.R. Wilco on Mar 22, 2010 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I just deleted a giant piece of text. Just kidding, it was two sentences.
I haven’t given up my hopes for this season, just my expectations.
Spurs Basketball. Improving [other] NBA teams since 2010! - swgeek
Beating both Miami and Orlando would be huge. I hope but do not expect.
I look forward to your Standings Perspective update. So far it seems wins and losses have mostly tracked expectations. Memphis was making a run in the standings and was ahead of Denver 83-77 with two minutes left in the 3rd but collapsed and got blown out.
Utah losing to OKC is huge. Utah’s April schedule is pretty rough too. Maybe I was wrong about them and Denver. Denver might cruise and Utah may fall.
Winning against OKC (next Monday) and PHX (first wednesday of April) on the road is beyond GIGANTIC if we want to move up in the standings. Both are SEGABABAs too (@ Atlanta and @ Sacramento on the first games respectively(.
Yeah. Too bad we refused that unexpected gift from Cleveland.
I think Utah is out of reach, only a near-collapse prevents them from getting 50 wins. Meanwhile, 50 wins for the Spurs against that schedule and w/o Tony will require playing the best ball of the season by far. If the Spurs finish that well they’ll have a fighting chance no matter who they face in the playoffs.
by doggydogworld on Mar 15, 2010 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly, the Spurs need to prove something against Miami for sure and somewhat against Orlando. Orlando and Cleveland are the two East teams we do have to hold back from as they are the odds on favorites to win the conference. Atlanta, Miami, and Boston need home beatdowns.
What about Jordan? And Durant? Bill Russel, the list goes on and on.
I was jesting above – the Spurs are not tanking this or next season and there are no new obvious LeBrons or Tim Duncans coming up to tempt them to tank.
Great post, Blase. I, too, prefer to remain optimistic about RJ’s role. Like Fred mentioned, It seems like we win quite handily when RJ plays well, especially when he scores 20 or more points.
by silverandblack_davis on Mar 15, 2010 7:46 PM CDT reply actions
Good post, BlaseE. I wish stats sites would distinguish between “real minutes” and “garbage minutes”. The percentages for the role players are always skewed.
I think we can still win it all. I’m probably crazy.
I smell death... everywhere.
If we do well in this upcoming hell of a stretch, there’s still reason to hope.
by silverandblack_davis on Mar 16, 2010 12:08 AM CDT up reply actions
I think, the most important columns in this table are first few (with/without %). You can learn everything from them. It is very evident that our worst player is Duncan (0.59/1.0 with/without %), followed by Ginobili (0.59/0.8) and Jefferson (0.6/1.0). Our best player is Bogans (0.63/0.0). So, we cannot win without Bogans and we cannot lose without Duncan or RJ. We should waive Duncan and Ginobili, and put Jefferson on the bench. Behind Bogans, we are destined to win every single game we play between now and June.
We should start rebuilding around Durant
Excellent post Blase. Really got me thinking. I refuse to give up on these Spurs, and I really think they’re finding the right formula. I know they let one slip away in Cleveland, but we’re still nonetheless 8-2 in our last 10. And they weren’t all slouch teams either. We won against Memphis, NOLA twice, the Suns, and the Thunder. And then the other loss, was a freak loss against Houston. Still not sure what happened that night.
Anyways, some thoughts I’ve come up with:
Jefferson needs to be stuck to Ginobili at all times. They’re just great together. And Blair, too. Timmeh needs to just keep being Timmeh. The Horry-esque statement about Dice is interesting, and I’m really hoping that rumor is true. Hill is stepping up his game in a huge way with Parker out and needs to keep it up in order for these Spurs to have a fighting chance in the playoff seeding. And Parker…whenever he gets back, the bench idea sounds great. However, my only problem is he seems to like having Duncan with him. Helps him drive down the lane, pick & rolls, etc. And Blair also likes being with Ginobili. So Blair in the starting line-up or ’Dyess? Or Parker in the starting line-up with RJ and Ginobili coming off the bench?
Also, RJ really has been impressing me as of late. Regardless of who he was playing against, he has been “fitting in” like we’ve wanted him to. He’s really starting to be agressive driving down the lane and is also grabbing boards. This guy could still be the “genius offseason acquisition”. He just needs to be stuck to Manu. And that’s fine. As long as we’re yelling “RAGEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!” here at PtR, that’s just fine.
Interesting post, but one point:
Finding the silver lining in RJ’s differential doesn’t make much sense to me. The reason he has such a high differential is because he sucks. In the games that we win, we’re mostly playing against bad teams. RJ as a bad “star” player, seems to do great in these games. Yeah, because they’re easy opponents.
Then when we’re playing tough opponents, in other words the games that are the most important, and the games that we tend to lose, RJ chokes.
Whatever the opposite of a silver lining is, this is it. Because when we need him most, against good teams (aka, “The Playoffs”), he sucks big time.
He seemed to do great the last couple games. But his 18 and 9 was vs the Clippers. His 19 and 9 was vs Minnesota. Hardly teams we have to worry about. Teams we’d likely beat even if RJ sat the whole game.
Final point of clarification: I’m highlighting this not just to continue the negativity, but to point out that if we start seeing a difference, it could mean really good things.
In other words, I’m hoping RJ manages to extend this good play in these crucial upcoming games vs good teams. But based on past performance, I’m not expecting it.
That’s what I thought about the strength of schedule but if you look at the splits, RJ does just as good against +.500 teams. He shoots about the same from the field but way worse from 3 and the charity stripe which more than makes up for his scoring 1 less point per game. He also has better numbers against the Western Conference than the Eastern.
Against the West, he shoots 5% better from the field, scores 3.2 more ppg, and shoots 37.7% for 3.
If we live and die by the three, and have to depend on Bonner and Mason who pulled disappearing acts last playoffs, and on Jefferson who plays well whenever the planets and stars are aligned just perfectly so, then we’re fucked.
Let’s see how we play against better teams, maybe we turned a corner, or maybe we turned a corner but had massive understeering thus crashing against the barrier and flying off a cliff.
To serve man.
Gustatus similis pullus.
by Hipuks on Mar 16, 2010 2:13 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
At least the team’s younger players look promising. We just need the next “best player ever” to fall into our laps. That shouldn’t be too hard, right?
I’m really liking Cedric Jackson’s contributions so far.
"We suck on 'D. Both individually and team-wise, we suck. We're pretty consistent that way. I don't know if I have an answer to that. If I did, we wouldn't suck quite so bad." - Popovich
by Aaron "Hirschof" Preine on Mar 16, 2010 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Not hard at all, Hirsch, not hard at all
"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on Blair
by Manu ex Machina on Mar 16, 2010 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Not too hard. All we have to do is tank the season and manipulate the ping pong balls to guarantee the first pick. Maybe that’s why Pop got RJ? People like Blair, Hill, Manu etc. keep messing up his plans though.
Not every #1 pick is best player ever. As a UT alum, I always wonder what Portland would be like with Durant and Aldridge….and Roy.
Living by the 3 is easier when
- Manu is shooting 37.5 % and would be over 50% if he hadn’t gone 1 of 5 at Memphis.
- Hill shoots 63.2 % and would be 11 of his last 15 without his 1 of 4 against Minnesota.
- Bonner shoots 48.5% and would be 15 of his last 28 attempts without his 1 of 5 against Minnesota.
- RJ keeps his 3 point attempts at 1.7 per game from the 2.4 he averaged all season. He took 14 shots against the Clipper and not a single 3.
- Bogans shoots 36% on his limited number of attempts. Bogans needs to shoot just to keep the defense honest on him too.
- Mason sucks right now. He is shooting 17% compared to his 35% season average. He is 3 of 9 since getting a DNP-CD @ Memphis if you forgive his 0 of 8 in Cleveland….
Those current numbers are all just their March numbers.

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