Pocket Jacks
by Fred Silva on Feb 20, 2010 8:01 PM CST
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PrintI was in Albuquerque, New Mexico this past week for business and after work I went to Sandia's Casino for some Texas Hold'em. The guy to my right lost with pocket jacks. In frustration, he asked the table, "How are you supposed to play pocket jacks?" An elderly gentleman to my right calmly responded, "I have a good friend who always says, 'There are three ways to play pocket jacks and they all end with you losing.'" It got me thinking; were the Spurs dealt pocket jacks?
I mean, at first glance our roster looks fantastic. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Antonio McDyess, and Richard Jefferson. How sexy is that lineup? In 2007, if I told you this would be our lineup in three years, you would have responded, 'Champs.' You would have been giddy. But here we are. For the first time since Tim arrived, I find myself doubting that the Spurs are contenders.
The problem with pocket jacks is there are many ways to play them. But regardless of whether you slow play them or push, when an over-card lands on the flop you always feel like an idiot. I get the feeling that Pop is over-thinking his hand. Just play it at face value and accept the results.
Thanks to Pop, I now feel confident that the Spurs will not win if they play an unorthodox lineup. If Richard is our four, things will not go well. It would appear that as soon as RJ is moved to the four position, his hands turn into thumbs and his feet stop communicating with his brain. It is damn unbelievable.
But here is why I still hold onto the hope that my pocket jacks have a chance. Since Pop refuses to play a lineup consistently, I still have no idea how good this team can be. If Pop would just give the common sense lineup consistent minutes, maybe they would gel. Here is what we need. Start Tony, Hill, Manu, McDyess and Duncan. At this point, that's the common sense lineup, right?
I feel that Jefferson has proven to be the epitome of suckitude. He cannot function without the ball in his hands. He is a liability on the defensive end and unless you run a play for the guy, he is not going to contribute offensively. Now, given that information, wouldn't the sixth man position be best for him? We could run everything through him with the second unit, and he wouldn't have to guard the starting forward of our opposition.
Mason was very much in the right when he asked to be traded and it all comes down to Pop's schizophrenic substitution patterns. As a player, there is nothing more frustrating than feeling as if you have no control over your minutes. Here is the best case scenario: you play well, you get minutes. You suck, you sit on the bench. That is what players want from a coach. This season, Pop's rotation has not reflected the performance of his players. If it did, RJ would be riding the pine and Blair and Hill would start every game; no questions asked.
Put yourself in Mason's shoes. You worked harder than ever during the off-season and feel that you are the best you have ever been. But your minutes are spotty and playing well has not resulted in more time on the floor. Even worse, you have to watch the spoiled child, RJ, suck it up out there. Now a guy that by all accounts should have retired two years ago, FInley, is going to take the few minutes you have? Come on. I would have asked to be traded too. In fact, are there any Oklahoma City Thunder fans out there willing to make a fan trade? I am on the block. Your team is fun and exciting. My team is old and depressing. If anyone is wondering why the Spurs did not make a trade, read my last two sentences again. That's why. No one wants our guys. I know, ouch.
This season is best described as pocket jacks. We went all in, were called, and an ace came on the flop. Our pocket jacks were just not as good as we thought. (If ever there were a reverse jinx article, this would be it.)
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Way too much common sense. It seems to come back to questions about coaching more often than not this year. Because even the wisdom of continuing to play Parker while he’s hurt baffles me. Give him a bunch of time off, and maybe he’ll be good by the playoffs, cause the Spurs certainly won’t succeed if he isn’t healthy (and I mean able to play decently for more than one quarter.)
I like OKC too. Pocket Jacks are a fold after the flop if a Q or higher pops up (naturally). I am glad you still feel optimistic about this team (unless that was sarcasm). I was calling for a lottery ending for the season a few weeks back and I stick by it. Nice article.
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
As a player, there is nothing more frustrating than feeling as if you have no control over your minutes. Here is the best case scenario: you play well, you get minutes. You suck, you sit on the bench. That is what players want from a coach. This season, Pop’s rotation has not reflected the performance of his players. If it did, RJ would be riding the pine and Blair and Hill would start every game; no questions asked
+100000
Based on this Bogans should not even be in the NBA right know, but he’s the starting SF for the Spurs, nice!
"He was just a young skinny guy who looked like a winner. We didn’t know he was going to be as good as he is."
—Popovich on Manu Ginobli
I want to get something off my chest
First of all Pop is not getting fired. He can finish with the worst record in the NBA and he’s not getting fired, he earned that right. But sometimes you need to know when to step down or look for some help (PJ). His substitutions are getting ridiculous and we have too many, sometimes it looks like we are substituting every 2 minutes. At the beginning of the season we had 7 bigs on the roster and still we were playing small ball with Blair and Bonner were playing as the center, come on. Now Bonner and Bogans are starting, are we going to tank the season or something?
As for lineups and things to try to get better, just give Hairston and Ian a chance, deactivate Bogans and start Manu.
My starters:
Timmy
Dice
RJ
Manu
Parker
2nd unit, just go summer league
Ian
Blair
Hairston
Mase
Hill
Designated shooters:
Bonner and Finley
"He was just a young skinny guy who looked like a winner. We didn’t know he was going to be as good as he is."
—Popovich on Manu Ginobli
Start Tony, Hill, Manu, McDyess and Duncan. At this point, that’s the common sense lineup, right?
We have exactly 3 guys on the team who can play some PG minutes. You think we should start all of them. How is that a common sense? Sounds to me as pretty unorthodox.
They have played the best this season; that’s how it’s common sense. We actually have exactly four players that can play PG. Mason played backup PG last season. And just because you start them doesn’t mean that they all have to come off the floor at the same time.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
Mase has proven that he cannot play point guard in NBA. He is about as good at 1 as RJ is at 4. Of course, RJ played some 4 this season for us. It doesn’t mean he can play this position. Mason is a pure shooter. In fact, we have 3 shooters on the team: Mase, Fin and Bonner. One of them should be on the floor with Tim and Tony to stretch out the defense.
I disagree. Mase is not as good at the 1 as RJ is at the 4.
by doggydogworld1 on Feb 20, 2010 11:02 PM CST up reply actions
But here is why I still hold onto the hope that my pocket jacks have a chance. Since Pop refuses to play a lineup consistently, I still have no idea how good this team can be. If Pop would just give the common sense lineup consistent minutes, maybe they would gel. Here is what we need. Start Tony, Hill, Manu, McDyess and Duncan. At this point, that’s the common sense lineup, right?
No.
There are two problems with this idea. First, that lineup is not effective enough for the resources it expends, namely the fact that seven minutes into the first quarter everybody you started is now tired and you don’t have anybody who’s effective off the bench. Second it’s not a great defensive lineup – or to put the point on the nose you don’t get the impact you should out of playing four of your best defenders because one is out of position.
Not only are you playing your three best play-makers simultaneously and ensuring that nobody from the bench can replace those talents, but you’re also playing your only two defensively-talented big men at the same time, and they’re both players who need rest and structured rotations on account of being old. What are we supposed to do for the last 3 or 4 minutes of the first, when we have to choose between Mason/Bogans/RJ/Bonner/Blair and tired players?
Starting Dice and Duncan pretty much insures that you have to play Bonner and Blair at the same time, and that doesn’t seem like a recipe for defensive success. Duncan needs his rest and minutes limited and Dice even more so. With about fifty or sixty minutes to use between the two of them, pairing them together ensures you have a shotblocker (any shotblocker) on the court only about half the time.
Starting isn’t everything. It’s at least as important who starts the third quarter and who closes out the game as it is who gets the nod in the starting lineup. TP/Hill/Mason/Dice/Duncan may get you out to an early lead, but the trade-off is turning a strong bench into a weak one.
These are all good points. What do you think about the wisdom of trading the best shot-blocking center on the team for nothing? I have several versions: 1) FO thought that the best case scenario for the season was “one-and-done” in the playoffs, and they basically gave up trying to do anything about it; 2) FO thought that Ian could do whatever Theo was supposed to do; 3) FO thought that Theo was so bad for the team that “addition by subtraction” was a positive move.
Best shot-blocking center. That gets thrown about a lot lately.
Theo was good as blocking shots because that’s all the tried to do when he was defending: he jumped high, and tried to block it. Every single time. The player would simply look at the hoop and he’d jump. He didn’t play good enough defense, and he was a zero on offense. That people claim he was our “playoffs wild card” seems ridiculous to me.
Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
LD…are you telling me you dont subscribe to the fact that Pop was preserving Theo for the postseason, where he would be unleashed upon an unsuspecting playoff field to average 10 pts 9 rebs and 4 blocks ?…. And save the Spurs season ?
Poppycock.
...Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is forty five.
I know you were being sarcastic, but honestly: when has Pop played someone in the playoffs that he hasn’t used at all during the regular season?
Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
Nick Van Excel?
The intanglibles are with us tonite…its just those dang tangibles lke making shots and playing defense - bones
Sounds more like a guy making spreadsheets than a basketball player.
Fire Pop from the Spurs! Fire Bonner from basketball! Fire your mother from child-rearing!
I completely agree. We’ve had some older guys over the years and Pop has never not played someone an entire season to then bring him in for the most crucial games of the year. I have enough faith in the front office that they were getting nothing out of Ratliff and would rather have taken some cap relief than keep him on the bench to bring nothing to the team.
Lineups
Let’s start Manu and sit Tony. Tony likes the ball in his hands – he can keep it in his hands the whole time with the second unit.
Starters: Tim, Dyess, Mason, Manu, Hill
2nd Unit: Blair, Bonner, RJ, Finley, Tony
The second unit is gonna suck. Whoever said we had the strongest bench in the league anyway? I had a hard time putting names there that wouldn’t suck.
PS
On second thought, Bonner should start, and Dyess should play with Tony. No way Bonner is gonna be able to shoot threes with Tony running the offense. He doesn’t see that far out to dump it off. Dyess, he can probably see and let him shoot the 20 footer.
With Theo out of the picture, I feel like we need to give Ian a chance to get some meaningful minutes. May be he would be able to play with Tim. May be he and Tony could develop some French chemistry (it would help them during the summer too). How about starting
Tim, Tony, Hill, Ian and Bonner/Finley? Second unit would be then Manu, Blair, RJ, Dice and Mase. I know I am desperate here. I just feel that we need to find some combination that would gel.
Yeah, I was really surprised they let Ratliff go. I was waiting for the time they would finally insert him in the line up (coz they “were saving him for the play-offs”) and give us the needed traditional spurs “D”. I guess he must’ve sucked during practice to not be given the chance during games.
I’m not convinced about Ian. I haven’t been impressed with the little that I saw. I hope I’m wrong though. Maybe he just gets the jitters coz he doesn’t play that often :P
Trying to come up with lineups, I now sort of understand why Pop goes small ball. He simply doesn’t have any effective bigs out there, and he can’t give Tim too many minutes. Bonner, Tim, Dyess, Blair – aside from Tim, all of them can’t defend (anymore, in the case of McD, and yet, in the case of Blair – hopefully)
I like the lineups you trotted out. Although we seem to be 2 decent rotation players short. Ian and Finley just aren’t NBA level players this season.
When I saw Ian, he blocked some shots, and made some dunks. Admittedly, I think it was his best game ever, but I liked what I saw. He is long and athletic, so if he could defend, he might be good next to Tim. But of course he never played with Tim, because he only plays garbage time, and Tim doesn’t. As I said, I understand that I am desperate. I also agree about Finley, he seems to have nothing left in his tank. I wish we would get some help at 3 through the trade, but this is a moot point now.
Ian is so slightly built that he just gets shoved out of position when guarding a real NBA big. It’s too bad.
The intanglibles are with us tonite…its just those dang tangibles lke making shots and playing defense - bones
I know right? The Thunder have a though time finding this guy Keven Durant minutes for the same reason! He couldn’t even bench 135lbs in his combine a couple years ago. He’ll never make it in the NBA :)
"I will five all over this blog." - JRW
Wow.
I’ve never felt so … betrayed.
In fact, if you want to look at a pictorial representation of my current mood, simply glance at my avatar.
Congratulations. I hope you’re satisfied with yourself.
Next you’ll be telling me that you’ve been throwing our chess games.
The intanglibles are with us tonite…its just those dang tangibles lke making shots and playing defense - bones
Lol is that your subtle way to announce “I’ve been whooping Manuwars ass in chess the past few months”? :)
Also I am taking a creative writing class and I’m counting on you to give me some constructive criticism so I can’t have you feeling betrayed. I tried to seek some help from LD but this is all I got:
Opening line from short story 1:
Danny sat in the shadow of the mountain before him and thought about the coast, how the sun would not be setting for another thirty minutes.
LatinD: Color me unimpressed. The mountains in Argentina cast more than shadows, they create night. Our coasts are more fierce and more beautiful at the same time than any coast in the United States. And I know you didn’t mention it anywhere in your story but your USAian idea of breakfast lunch and dinner is so backwards it’s no wonder your economy is in a downward spiral.
See JRW, I need you.
"I will five all over this blog." - JRW
by Manuwar on Feb 22, 2010 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Heh. Now I think you should write both your POV and mine. :)
Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
You know what I think about sometimes Kondy ?…. ( Im am not being sarcastic ) What if the Spurs had kept Scola. Imagine the chemistry from having Manu, Scola and Fabio on the same team. They have played to together for many years. Ah well.
...Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is forty five.
Why would we do that? Delfino is not a consistent player, despite his current rebirth.
Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
That Scola trade keeps killing me. Such an unbelieveable blunder, giving up a good big man for nothing. In a sense, I think that trade broke down the Spurs as a championship contender. NBA is way too competitive, you cannot make the mistakes so big and hope to stay on top.
Tony and George seem to play well together, and RJ plays much better with Manu than with Tony, so I would swap Manu and Tony. Is Manu deserving of starting? Yes. But he doesn’t mind coming off the bench and you need a spark plug with the second unit, a role in which Manu has thrived. Plus, Tony plays better with Timmeh than any of the other bigs, and Manu and Blair have some strange psychic connection when on the court.
Right. Tim and Tony on the floor together a ton is probably the way to go. If I had to wish for one thing it would be for Bogan’s minutes to get shared among Mason Bonner and Finley. I know Pop doesn’t want to start tony mason and RJ and get torched by opponent guards and wings, but the remedy is way worse than the symptom.
I can’t reisist this opportunity to bemoan my luck:
I was at a Mardi Gras party the other night and after a while a group of us started playing poker. I was up big at one point, but ended up going bust when my trip queens were beat by four aces. FOUR ACES. And to add insult to injury, the guy who beat me was so drunk he was audibly hiccuping at the table. It was like losing to got-dang Foster Brooks (this guy, for all you teeny-boppers).
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
Looking at the roster, there’s only 8 guys that I would trust with regular minutes, so I tried to come up with an 8 man rotation rather than going 10 deep.
PG- Parker and Hill
SG/SF- Ginobili, Mason, Jefferson
PF/C- Duncan, McDyess, Blair
Basically, aside from the point, you have 3 guys rotating between two spots. To me, all the other players on the roster are best used as situation specialists, Finley and Bonner for shooting, Ian for fouling Shaq, etc. I just don’t have confidence in Bonner, Finley has gotten too old, and I haven’t seen enough of Ian or Hairston to know anything about them, and I’m just trusting the staff that there is a reason I haven’t seen more of them. As CapHill and others have pointed, Ginobili, Jefferson, and Blair all seem to play well together, so I would probably try and keep that trio together on the floor as much as possible, and Tony and Tim seem to do well, especially if they have a shooter like Mason with them to stretch the floor, so I would probably try and keep those three together as much as possible. So I would probably try to start Parker, Mason, Jefferson, Duncan, and McDyess, and then bring Hill, Ginobili, and Blair off the bench. How all of that would work out over the course of the game, I have no idea, but that’s why I’m not an NBA coach.
On a completely unrelated subject, and I have no idea if this has already been discussed, but a lot of people would probably say that this hasn’t been Pop’s best year of coaching. Do you think to some extent that maybe reflects all the talented assistants we’ve lost in recent years as other teams poached PJ, Mike Brown, etc?
GO SPURS GO!
5 IN '10!
Interesting thoughts about the coaching, Willy. I think a lot of us wish PJ was back on the Spurs sideline this year. The Spurs are victims of their own success in regards to losing assistants. I think most of us can agree that this hasn’t been Pop’s best year, but he seems to be as confused as us fans with the lack of cohesion exhibited.
Do you think to some extent that maybe reflects all the talented assistants we’ve lost in recent years as other teams poached PJ, Mike Brown, etc?
This could have had a bigger impact than we thought in terms of the team being good at the details.
That really is a good point. I don’t like them, but look at how the New England Patriots have changed over the years. Belicheck let all of his assistants go, figuring he was smart enough to make the necessary changes and keep the team running. But they struggled with the consistency they previously had. And it makes you wonder if at least part of Belichecks and the Patriot’s genius was due to the fact they had very good assistants. This could be the same thing with the Spurs. Losing their assistants caused a few details here or there to get lost. Not taking anything away from Pop, but even the best of coaches need some help.
Pop needs no help. Its been rumored he is intentionally doing a shitty job in order to fall further in the draft and secure our next gem of a pick.
...Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is forty five.
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