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Around SBN: Bob Sapp Denies Throwing Fights

Anatomy of a Hot Streak: Part 2 - Player View

 

Player evaluation is a lot of fun when your team is an unstoppable juggernaut.  Despite a near-disaster in Minnesota and a home loss to the Mavericks, the Spurs still look like one of the best teams in the NBA. This is true both in the win column, and when you look deeper into the numbers.  

Anatomy_godzilla_medium

Closer examination reveals the hot streak to be made of ... 100% win?

 


Star-divide

In the last (chart-heavy) installment I showed how the team is outperforming last year's squad and the rest of the league. The following hodgepodge of colored rectangles and tiny numbers is what you get when you look at the players' performance to date. I've included my thoughts where appropriate; feel free to add yours in the comments.

 

Offense


More than ever our perimeter players are responsible for our offense.

Guards_mediumBigs_medium

In the graphs above the red area is the percent of the team's offense each player used and the blue area is how efficient they've been.  The league average for TS is about 54%.  Click to see them side-by-side. 

Manu Ginobili is our leader in both the amount of possessions used and scoring efficiency.  When you consider the offense he creates for others and what he adds to our defense, it's clear Manu's playing out of his mind right now. [64.2 for Total Shooting Percentage? Yeah, you want that guy's usage at 23.8% -- or higher! -jrw]

Then you've got Parker, who's scoring efficiently at 58% TS and taking 24% of team possessions.  As we'll see later, Tony is passing more and shooting less than the past few years.  Richard Jefferson is almost as efficient as Manu but is only taking 18% of the offense. Our wings are scoring from very efficient spots - at the three point line and free throw line.  Hill and Anderson are both versatile like that, and don't turn the ball over much. 

With DeJuan Blair struggling, Tim Duncan getting fewer touches, and Tiago Splitter getting only morsels of minutes, the frontcourt's main responsibility on offense is to set good screens and let the guards create the play.  For bigs not named Duncan, it's a matter of being efficient in the pick and roll game or as a shooter.  Splitter is our most efficient big when you consider how often he gets to the line and how well he shoots there.  Bonner rarely draws FTs but is efficient himself and spaces the floor for others.  His usage rate of 13.7 is so low because he doesn't get putback attempts, free throw attempts or commit turnovers. 

Assists and Turnovers

Ast_medium

  Last year Manu created almost as many assists as our poing guard.  This year: Tony is back.

Few 'Centers' in today's game have an important role in the offense.  B-R.com considers 27 players who've logged significant time this year to be a C, but only 7 of them use more than their share (20% usg) of the offense.  No matter what position you call Tim Duncan, he's a versatile player who sets up teammates and carries a scoring load of his own.  This allows him to play alongside a low-usage big who specializes in rebounding (Blair) shooting (Bonner) or defense (Dice). 

Tov_medium

  Per possession, Jefferson hasn't had many turnovers.  Bonner hasn't had one yet!

Rebounding and Defensive Stats

Rebounding_medium

   Offensive, defensive and total rebounding rates per one hundred possessions.

Duncan, Blair and McDyess are largely responsible for the Spurs' excellent defensive rebounding.  While on the floor Blair and Splitter are better than average at offensive rebounding while Duncan and Dice are near average for NBA bigs.  One area Tiago could improve defensively is his rebounding, but this may just be a reflection of a small sample or bad match-ups. 

Defense_medium

 Duncan, Splitter and Blair end a lot of opponent possessions, as do the guards.

So, that's it for anatomy class. I hope you enjoyed the stats breakdown. Let me know what you think I should take on next.

Comment 43 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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I love the charts. I can’t wait until we finally get Splitter fully acclimated. I think we need more RAGE as well. Great article!

Also, it looks to me that Godzilla has no ACLs. . . .

"The ultimate zone buster" - Bill Land on Gary Neal

"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on DeJuan Blair

by Manu ex Machina on Nov 28, 2010 5:39 PM CST reply actions  

I was about to be surprised, but then I realized that I couldn’t find a single ligament in Blair’s Godzilla’s entire body!

What do you make of THAT?

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Nov 28, 2010 6:32 PM CST up reply actions  

I think we need to sign that guy.

by Tim C. on Nov 28, 2010 6:51 PM CST up reply actions  

That theres a little bit of Godzilla in Dejuan Blair ?

[ "Duncan, the Spurs' 34-year-old captain, was aghast when Splitter told him he used to watch him as a kid."]

"I didn't enjoy that at all," Duncan said

by alamobro on Nov 28, 2010 7:13 PM CST up reply actions  

That they’re one and the same?

Blairzilla, anyone?

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Nov 29, 2010 12:55 AM CST up reply actions  

nice work – greyberger, keep it up!

"The A-Train deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html

by Joe deLarios on Nov 28, 2010 6:29 PM CST reply actions  

Nice charts, grey. Always nice to have statistical confirmation of what your eyes tell you.

I smell death... everywhere.

by LatinD on Nov 28, 2010 6:29 PM CST reply actions  

This is excellent stuff, grey. Keep ’em coming.

Rec’d.

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Nov 28, 2010 6:38 PM CST reply actions  

wow! RJ and bonner have the least TO’s in our team..

by rank on Nov 28, 2010 7:18 PM CST reply actions  

Generally Bonner is shooting it or driving to the bucket (ugly) and bricking the floater (so far this year).

RJ tends to be quick with his motions and knows how to draw the contact once he’s close to the basket. He’s more likely to get blocked than stolen from.

by grego21 on Nov 28, 2010 11:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Still, nice work from both of them. Eh?

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Nov 29, 2010 11:27 AM CST up reply actions  

I’m proud of them both. Everyone sees RJ’s improvement, but Bonner has improved since last year. Too bad his floater that he hit last year isn’t falling. He’d probably average about 1-1.5 ppg more than he currently is.

by grego21 on Nov 30, 2010 12:35 AM CST up reply actions  

I wasn’t there from the beginning, but the 48MoH guys were talking to him after the Mavs game, about whether anything was different last year to this, and he said that he hasn’t changed anything and everything he’s doing this year is straight out of the scouting report that the league has had on him for the last five years.

It sure would be great if his floater was falling as it has in the path, but if I have to take a choice between adding that shot, or staying with his current production from behind the arc — well, that’s just a no-brainer.

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Dec 1, 2010 1:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Nice work grey!

by rank on Nov 28, 2010 7:24 PM CST reply actions  

If anyone have all the time in the world, do a statistical analysis on our players vs opponent (say TP stats vs average opposing point guards stats; manu vs average opposing shooting guards stats, etc). I think that would be helpful in determining which spot is the weakest in our team. so far, i notice that the PF-C position is the weakest. we’ve been hammered (statistically) on this spot.

by rank on Nov 28, 2010 7:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Awesome stuff!

Could you do one where you compare our team to other teams more? Doesn’t matter what stat. I liked what you did with the first one as well

Biggest coach Pop/Tiago Splitter homer on the internet™

by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Nov 28, 2010 8:45 PM CST reply actions  

Great job, grey! I love those charts. Rec’d!

:)

by day_late_friend on Nov 28, 2010 9:24 PM CST reply actions  

Good points about comparing to other players or the league average for that position. If there’s a long break before a good game, it might be cool to do a player matchup profile to compare the important players and what they bring.

Either way there’s room for a standard to compare.

by greyberger on Nov 28, 2010 9:26 PM CST reply actions  

What really surprised me when I was doing this was Splitter. He takes as many shots per minute as Dice, but he gets to the line so much more than any big.

If he can get FT attempts that easily and sustain his percentages, he’s a very nice weapon on offense, with good offensive rebounding… if he can just maintain these rates over more minutes he’ll start to get a lot of points and press.

by greyberger on Nov 28, 2010 9:37 PM CST reply actions  

He really should work with Chip. His shot is so stiff that I doubt you can ever get a high percentage rhythm out of it.

by grego21 on Nov 28, 2010 11:27 PM CST up reply actions  

An earlier game his shot looked fairly smooth, and he had made 18-25 prior to today. I think he just needs to have consistent playing time and many trips to the line to get into the right rhythm.

by Alamo on Nov 28, 2010 11:50 PM CST up reply actions  

He’s been hitting them, but they are quite stiff. He bends his knees but he tends to release after a brief pause between the lift from his knees and the release from his hands.

by grego21 on Nov 29, 2010 1:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Stay tuned to hear more about this.

I got to talk with Chip this weekend, after I’d seen him (from afar) working with Tiago earlier in the season. I should have something to post no later than the end of next week. Should me fun.

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Nov 29, 2010 11:29 AM CST up reply actions  

I can’t wait. :)

by grego21 on Nov 30, 2010 12:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Chip’s a miracle worker. Compare Blair’s FT shooting form this year to last year’s.

Hey, if posting a sharp, insightful, yet non-sarcastic comment were that easy, even olf would do it.

Mike Monroe: ...the uninformed presume Parker is expendable.

by freshtunarightofftheboat on Nov 29, 2010 1:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Couldn’t agree more.

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Nov 29, 2010 11:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Splitter needs to get at least 28 to 30 min. a game. Splitter has a big impact on the team when he’s on the floor. The ball moves more cause of all the good screens Splitter does. He is always moving when he is on the floor, and that opens up more things for other guys. When Splitter does pick and roll with TP9 or Manu, it’s unstoppable.

by spurlover on Nov 29, 2010 2:11 AM CST up reply actions  

I gotta think that he’s not seeing more time b/c they’re taking it easy with him in order to be sure that the year doesn’t get too long for him.

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Nov 29, 2010 11:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Exactly. I mean this should be a given after all the injury problems and Pop’s conservative side when it comes to injuries.

by grego21 on Nov 30, 2010 12:36 AM CST up reply actions  

According to DSMok’s Advanced Statistical Cookie Plus/Minus (only one of those is made up) the big three are still the most valuable players for us, followed by RJ, Hill, Splitter and Bonner.

%Min SPM StdErr Contrib
Manu Ginobili 0.68 6.18 5.35 4.22
Tony Parker 0.72 5.17 5.23 3.71
Richard Jefferson0.66 1.40 5.45 0.92
Tim Duncan 0.61 3.44 5.65 2.08
George Hill 0.49 1.04 6.21 0.51
Matt Bonner 0.28 0.35 8.10 0.10
Tiago Splitter 0.19 0.69 9.62 0.13
Antonio McDyess 0.39 -1.74 6.90 -0.69
DeJuan Blair 0.41 -1.43 6.75 -0.59
Gary Neal 0.29 -2.82 7.92 -0.83
James Anderson 0.15 -1.65 11.06 -0.24

%min is just percent of time on the court. Contribution is Statistical +/- times %min. Tim rates so high because of his defense in what the media will tell you is a down year for him so far.

by greyberger on Nov 28, 2010 9:56 PM CST reply actions  

Could we

am I the only one who thinks we could trade the nets for terrence williams. Avery just sent him to the d-league i bet we could trade some picks the nets are needing picks to offer denver anyway. I would love to hear someones opinion on this williams is 6-6 220 and would be a great back-up to RJ and allow JA to move to SG.

AKA Anthony Teegarden

by bigtee34 on Nov 28, 2010 10:06 PM CST reply actions  

Williams has a $2+million contract. To make a trade while staying within the cap rules would require the Spurs to trade players with an equivalent amount of salary. I believe that to trade for a player using simply draft picks would mean acquiring someone whose contract fits under the $825K salary that Theo Ratliff had when he was traded and created a trade exception.

I had noticed earlier today that Joe Alexander, a former lottery pick that I had suggested before the Danny Green signing, had a couple of good dleague games playing for the Texas Legends. Now this evening he is no longer on their roster, so I suspect someone has signed him.

by Alamo on Nov 28, 2010 10:28 PM CST up reply actions  

yeah i figured his contract would be to large for us. I was just looking at his upside he was sent down because of his attitude not his skills.

AKA Anthony Teegarden

by bigtee34 on Nov 28, 2010 10:32 PM CST up reply actions  

More on Williams’ banishment to the D-League.

Hey, if posting a sharp, insightful, yet non-sarcastic comment were that easy, even olf would do it.

Mike Monroe: ...the uninformed presume Parker is expendable.

by freshtunarightofftheboat on Nov 28, 2010 11:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I have reservations about the coachability (and thus, suitability for the Spurs) of a player who was sent to the D-League by Coach Avery primarily as a punishment for things that used to be called ‘conduct detrimental to the team’ (e.g. missing meetings, attitude, etc.). And Alamo is quite right about the salary cap issues…. the ESPN Trade Machine can be used to create trades that work within the existing rules.

Hey, if posting a sharp, insightful, yet non-sarcastic comment were that easy, even olf would do it.

Mike Monroe: ...the uninformed presume Parker is expendable.

by freshtunarightofftheboat on Nov 28, 2010 10:41 PM CST up reply actions  

go indi

"He was just a young skinny guy who looked like a winner. We didn’t know he was going to be as good as he is."
—Popovich on Manu Ginobili

by spursfan87 on Nov 28, 2010 10:44 PM CST reply actions  

I like that
Parker, Ginobili, RJ are cool
and i like to see shooters like hill, neal and anderson and its cool because the spurs have the best backcourt
but Popovich need to involve blair and splitter more, why??
Maybe in the playoffs our Tim Duncan would be not enough

by cuentaluis1 on Nov 28, 2010 11:22 PM CST reply actions  

Blair is playing himself out of minutes. Splitter is playing himself into minutes more and more.

by grego21 on Nov 28, 2010 11:29 PM CST up reply actions  

Very nice stats. It’s amazing, how different are skill sets of our players. Bonner might be the most unorthodox player of the league.

"We lost so many games that we shouldn't have lost," - Ginobili, May 2010

by Kondor on Nov 28, 2010 11:56 PM CST reply actions  

and probably the most efficient of the floor spacing bigs (like Lewis)

Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis

by SpursfanSteve on Nov 29, 2010 8:19 AM CST up reply actions  

And when you consider the fact that he doesn’t turn the ball over, then his dribble drives (which I hate as much or more than anyone) become more forgivable because he’s at least getting a shot up, instead of making bad passes while he’s on the move.

RJ2.0: vive la différence.

by J.R. Wilco on Nov 29, 2010 2:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Such beautiful graphs to look at. Great work on the analysis, g-berg.

"A life, Jimmy, you know what that is? It’s what happens while you wait for moments that will never come." - Lester Freamon, The Wire

by silverandblack_davis on Nov 29, 2010 7:31 PM CST reply actions  

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