Anatomy of a Hot Streak: Part 2 - Player View
Player evaluation is a lot of fun when your team is an unstoppable juggernaut. Despite a near-disaster in Minnesota and a home loss to the Mavericks, the Spurs still look like one of the best teams in the NBA. This is true both in the win column, and when you look deeper into the numbers.
Closer examination reveals the hot streak to be made of ... 100% win?
In the last (chart-heavy) installment I showed how the team is outperforming last year's squad and the rest of the league. The following hodgepodge of colored rectangles and tiny numbers is what you get when you look at the players' performance to date. I've included my thoughts where appropriate; feel free to add yours in the comments.
Offense
More than ever our perimeter players are responsible for our offense.
In the graphs above the red area is the percent of the team's offense each player used and the blue area is how efficient they've been. The league average for TS is about 54%. Click to see them side-by-side.
Manu Ginobili is our leader in both the amount of possessions used and scoring efficiency. When you consider the offense he creates for others and what he adds to our defense, it's clear Manu's playing out of his mind right now. [64.2 for Total Shooting Percentage? Yeah, you want that guy's usage at 23.8% -- or higher! -jrw]
Then you've got Parker, who's scoring efficiently at 58% TS and taking 24% of team possessions. As we'll see later, Tony is passing more and shooting less than the past few years. Richard Jefferson is almost as efficient as Manu but is only taking 18% of the offense. Our wings are scoring from very efficient spots - at the three point line and free throw line. Hill and Anderson are both versatile like that, and don't turn the ball over much.
With DeJuan Blair struggling, Tim Duncan getting fewer touches, and Tiago Splitter getting only morsels of minutes, the frontcourt's main responsibility on offense is to set good screens and let the guards create the play. For bigs not named Duncan, it's a matter of being efficient in the pick and roll game or as a shooter. Splitter is our most efficient big when you consider how often he gets to the line and how well he shoots there. Bonner rarely draws FTs but is efficient himself and spaces the floor for others. His usage rate of 13.7 is so low because he doesn't get putback attempts, free throw attempts or commit turnovers.
Assists and Turnovers
Last year Manu created almost as many assists as our poing guard. This year: Tony is back.
Few 'Centers' in today's game have an important role in the offense. B-R.com considers 27 players who've logged significant time this year to be a C, but only 7 of them use more than their share (20% usg) of the offense. No matter what position you call Tim Duncan, he's a versatile player who sets up teammates and carries a scoring load of his own. This allows him to play alongside a low-usage big who specializes in rebounding (Blair) shooting (Bonner) or defense (Dice).
Per possession, Jefferson hasn't had many turnovers. Bonner hasn't had one yet!
Rebounding and Defensive Stats
Offensive, defensive and total rebounding rates per one hundred possessions.
Duncan, Blair and McDyess are largely responsible for the Spurs' excellent defensive rebounding. While on the floor Blair and Splitter are better than average at offensive rebounding while Duncan and Dice are near average for NBA bigs. One area Tiago could improve defensively is his rebounding, but this may just be a reflection of a small sample or bad match-ups.
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I love the charts. I can’t wait until we finally get Splitter fully acclimated. I think we need more RAGE as well. Great article!
Also, it looks to me that Godzilla has no ACLs. . . .
"The ultimate zone buster" - Bill Land on Gary Neal
"I like the fact that he’s a man." – Hubie Brown on DeJuan Blair
by Manu ex Machina on Nov 28, 2010 5:39 PM CST reply actions
I was about to be surprised, but then I realized that I couldn’t find a single ligament in Blair’s Godzilla’s entire body!
What do you make of THAT?
RJ2.0: vive la différence.
Generally Bonner is shooting it or driving to the bucket (ugly) and bricking the floater (so far this year).
RJ tends to be quick with his motions and knows how to draw the contact once he’s close to the basket. He’s more likely to get blocked than stolen from.
I’m proud of them both. Everyone sees RJ’s improvement, but Bonner has improved since last year. Too bad his floater that he hit last year isn’t falling. He’d probably average about 1-1.5 ppg more than he currently is.
I wasn’t there from the beginning, but the 48MoH guys were talking to him after the Mavs game, about whether anything was different last year to this, and he said that he hasn’t changed anything and everything he’s doing this year is straight out of the scouting report that the league has had on him for the last five years.
It sure would be great if his floater was falling as it has in the path, but if I have to take a choice between adding that shot, or staying with his current production from behind the arc — well, that’s just a no-brainer.
RJ2.0: vive la différence.
If anyone have all the time in the world, do a statistical analysis on our players vs opponent (say TP stats vs average opposing point guards stats; manu vs average opposing shooting guards stats, etc). I think that would be helpful in determining which spot is the weakest in our team. so far, i notice that the PF-C position is the weakest. we’ve been hammered (statistically) on this spot.
Awesome stuff!
Could you do one where you compare our team to other teams more? Doesn’t matter what stat. I liked what you did with the first one as well
Biggest coach Pop/Tiago Splitter homer on the internet™
by Josh Guyer (completely deck) on Nov 28, 2010 8:45 PM CST reply actions
Great job, grey! I love those charts. Rec’d!
:)
by day_late_friend on Nov 28, 2010 9:24 PM CST reply actions
What really surprised me when I was doing this was Splitter. He takes as many shots per minute as Dice, but he gets to the line so much more than any big.
If he can get FT attempts that easily and sustain his percentages, he’s a very nice weapon on offense, with good offensive rebounding… if he can just maintain these rates over more minutes he’ll start to get a lot of points and press.
He really should work with Chip. His shot is so stiff that I doubt you can ever get a high percentage rhythm out of it.
An earlier game his shot looked fairly smooth, and he had made 18-25 prior to today. I think he just needs to have consistent playing time and many trips to the line to get into the right rhythm.
He’s been hitting them, but they are quite stiff. He bends his knees but he tends to release after a brief pause between the lift from his knees and the release from his hands.
Chip’s a miracle worker. Compare Blair’s FT shooting form this year to last year’s.
Hey, if posting a sharp, insightful, yet non-sarcastic comment were that easy, even olf would do it.
Mike Monroe: ...the uninformed presume Parker is expendable.
by freshtunarightofftheboat on Nov 29, 2010 1:38 AM CST up reply actions
Splitter needs to get at least 28 to 30 min. a game. Splitter has a big impact on the team when he’s on the floor. The ball moves more cause of all the good screens Splitter does. He is always moving when he is on the floor, and that opens up more things for other guys. When Splitter does pick and roll with TP9 or Manu, it’s unstoppable.
According to DSMok’s Advanced Statistical Cookie Plus/Minus (only one of those is made up) the big three are still the most valuable players for us, followed by RJ, Hill, Splitter and Bonner.
%Min SPM StdErr Contrib
Manu Ginobili 0.68 6.18 5.35 4.22
Tony Parker 0.72 5.17 5.23 3.71
Richard Jefferson0.66 1.40 5.45 0.92
Tim Duncan 0.61 3.44 5.65 2.08
George Hill 0.49 1.04 6.21 0.51
Matt Bonner 0.28 0.35 8.10 0.10
Tiago Splitter 0.19 0.69 9.62 0.13
Antonio McDyess 0.39 -1.74 6.90 -0.69
DeJuan Blair 0.41 -1.43 6.75 -0.59
Gary Neal 0.29 -2.82 7.92 -0.83
James Anderson 0.15 -1.65 11.06 -0.24
%min is just percent of time on the court. Contribution is Statistical +/- times %min. Tim rates so high because of his defense in what the media will tell you is a down year for him so far.
Could we
am I the only one who thinks we could trade the nets for terrence williams. Avery just sent him to the d-league i bet we could trade some picks the nets are needing picks to offer denver anyway. I would love to hear someones opinion on this williams is 6-6 220 and would be a great back-up to RJ and allow JA to move to SG.
AKA Anthony Teegarden
Williams has a $2+million contract. To make a trade while staying within the cap rules would require the Spurs to trade players with an equivalent amount of salary. I believe that to trade for a player using simply draft picks would mean acquiring someone whose contract fits under the $825K salary that Theo Ratliff had when he was traded and created a trade exception.
I had noticed earlier today that Joe Alexander, a former lottery pick that I had suggested before the Danny Green signing, had a couple of good dleague games playing for the Texas Legends. Now this evening he is no longer on their roster, so I suspect someone has signed him.
yeah i figured his contract would be to large for us. I was just looking at his upside he was sent down because of his attitude not his skills.
AKA Anthony Teegarden
More on Williams’ banishment to the D-League.
Hey, if posting a sharp, insightful, yet non-sarcastic comment were that easy, even olf would do it.
Mike Monroe: ...the uninformed presume Parker is expendable.
by freshtunarightofftheboat on Nov 28, 2010 11:43 PM CST up reply actions
I have reservations about the coachability (and thus, suitability for the Spurs) of a player who was sent to the D-League by Coach Avery primarily as a punishment for things that used to be called ‘conduct detrimental to the team’ (e.g. missing meetings, attitude, etc.). And Alamo is quite right about the salary cap issues…. the ESPN Trade Machine can be used to create trades that work within the existing rules.
Hey, if posting a sharp, insightful, yet non-sarcastic comment were that easy, even olf would do it.
Mike Monroe: ...the uninformed presume Parker is expendable.
by freshtunarightofftheboat on Nov 28, 2010 10:41 PM CST up reply actions
I like that
Parker, Ginobili, RJ are cool
and i like to see shooters like hill, neal and anderson and its cool because the spurs have the best backcourt
but Popovich need to involve blair and splitter more, why??
Maybe in the playoffs our Tim Duncan would be not enough
Very nice stats. It’s amazing, how different are skill sets of our players. Bonner might be the most unorthodox player of the league.
"We lost so many games that we shouldn't have lost," - Ginobili, May 2010
and probably the most efficient of the floor spacing bigs (like Lewis)
Rim Rockin' Red Rocket -silverandblack_davis
by SpursfanSteve on Nov 29, 2010 8:19 AM CST up reply actions
Such beautiful graphs to look at. Great work on the analysis, g-berg.
"A life, Jimmy, you know what that is? It’s what happens while you wait for moments that will never come." - Lester Freamon, The Wire
by silverandblack_davis on Nov 29, 2010 7:31 PM CST reply actions

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