Network analysis applied to basketball offense

by ptruser on Aug 19, 2009 3:33 PM CDT Comment 23 comments

The price of anarchy in basketball Brian Skinner (Submitted on 12 Aug 2009)

Optimizing the performance of a basketball offense may be viewed as a network problem, wherein each play represents a "pathway" through which the ball and players may move from origin (the in-bounds pass) to goal (the basket). Effective field goal percentages from the resulting shot attempts can be used to characterize the efficiency of each pathway. Inspired by recent discussions of the "price of anarchy" in traffic networks, this paper makes a formal analogy between a basketball offense and a simplified traffic network. The analysis suggests that there may be a significant difference between taking the highest-percentage shot each time down the court and playing the most efficient possible game.

Comments:	7 pages, 4 figures
Subjects:	Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph); Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
Cite as:	arXiv:0908.1801v1 [physics.soc-ph]

i haven't had a chance to read the whole thing but seems interesting so far.

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Damn, that Brian Skinner dude is mighty smart. Maybe that’s why Popovich has been emulating the guy.

by theonlyromeo on Aug 19, 2009 11:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

oops not that brian skinner! the posting mechanism tried to automatically tag the post and that one slipped by me in the “Edit your tags” phase….

who are you who can summon fire without flint or tinder? there are some who call me ... tim.

by ptruser on Aug 20, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dear ptruser,

This has nothing to do with anything, but long ago when I first read your name, in my mind I said it “PT ruser,” (pronounced “pee-tee ROO-zer.” It took me a while to figure out it was “PTR user.”

FIN

by Gino20 on Aug 20, 2009 2:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ditto

I’m so ashamed.

From under the radar to hanging in the rafters - Big50
5 in 10

by jollyrogerwilco on Aug 20, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL, I still hadn’t figured that out, until you said something. Good names are like wine, and Spurs, they get better with time.

by Big50 on Aug 20, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha, i used to think alamobro was pronounced like alambre (a laam BRE) but then as i was eating some alambre at guajillo’s i realized it was Alamo Bro. Maybe, just as we have a mapping PTR post, there should be a username pronounciation post, ha

who are you who can summon fire without flint or tinder? there are some who call me ... tim.

by ptruser on Aug 20, 2009 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh my! That is enlightening! So that’s what “alamobro” means! We learn new things everyday.

by theonlyromeo on Aug 20, 2009 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine is pronounced: Blaze E

the “ase” is pronounced aze like in phase. It is not the word blasé as in non-chalant, laid back, relaxed, unmoved, unconcerned, or carefree. I’d have to think if those apply or not…..

by BlaseE on Aug 20, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

“Theo” is NOT my first name.

by theonlyromeo on Aug 20, 2009 10:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine combines “cap” and “hill” to be pronounced together as CapHill. Hope that clears everything up.

My people call it "sarcasm." - Lauri

by CapHill on Aug 20, 2009 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Latin D. Hope the lack of the space didn’t mess with your mind.

Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Aug 20, 2009 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn, I thought that was a verb.

by theonlyromeo on Aug 20, 2009 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine’s pronounced “Jay Are Double Ewe” and it stands for — oh, never mind.

From under the radar to hanging in the rafters - Big50
5 in 10

by jollyrogerwilco on Aug 21, 2009 1:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The double L confused me for a while.

by theonlyromeo on Aug 20, 2009 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

::quietly destroying audio communications in which I address Ms. Kay Phil::

WWTD?

by Lauri on Aug 21, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously, your genius continues to amaze me! And since my “U” key is sticking, it was more difficult than you’d think to type this.

My people call it "sarcasm." - Lauri

by CapHill on Aug 22, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m a genis!

WWTD?

by Lauri on Aug 25, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My brain hurts.

Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Aug 20, 2009 6:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine too.

My people call it "sarcasm." - Lauri

by CapHill on Aug 20, 2009 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is, to me, the crux of the article

In such a scenario Allen would have a TS% of 0.625, far above the rest of his teammates who are shooting with a TS% of 0.5. It would seem to be obvious that Ray Allen should be getting more shots than his teammates. But the result of limiting Allen’s shots, and thereby keeping the defense from focusing too intently on him, pays off. In this case it improves the team’s TS% by 2.5%. For reference, in the 2008-2009 NBA season the standard deviation among teams in TS% was only 1.6%, so a difference of 2.5% may be quite significant. To achieve it, the team just needs to consciously choose not to feed the ball to Ray Allen on ∼ 80% of possessions, even when he is their best option.

Substitute Manu for Allen in the above, and Pop’s play calling makes much more sense than otherwise, eh?

From under the radar to hanging in the rafters - Big50
5 in 10

by jollyrogerwilco on Aug 21, 2009 7:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs