Too Early? It's Never Too Early To Speculate
by Tim C. on Jul 17, 2009 12:26 AM CDT
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PrintIt's time for a little premature speculation on the Spurs roster and depth for the upcoming season. No, Summer League isn't finished, but the results of that so far haven't been very surprising. Come on in, the water's fine, and it's just been cleaned up in anticipation of a river parade.
I'll start by saying that I believe the Spurs will fill 13 or 14 roster spots by the end of training camp, leaving the final one or two open in case another Toros player starts tearing up the D-League. Currently, there are 13 players who (IMHO) are good enough to make the team, and here's how this fan sees the roster shaping up at the beginning of the season:
| Pos. | Depth Chart |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | Backup | "Other" | |
| PG | Parker | Hill | Williams |
| SG | Mason | Ginobili | Hairston |
| SF | Jefferson | Finley | - |
| PF | McDyess | Blair | Bonner |
| C | Duncan | Mahinmi | Haislip |
Scattered Notes:
If Hairston's newfound jumper and confidence on the offensive end are consistent, he and Finley may be switched by season's end. He looks that good.
Marcus Williams is sort of the wild card in this. I haven't seen nearly enough(read: any) of him to know anything about his game, so why is he listed at PG above? Because RC Buford, in an interview during the first game of summer league, sounded more enthused about Williams than he did about Hairston, Haislip, or even Blair. It seems like the Spurs saw enough from his stint with the Toros last season to try the experiment of Williams at PG(Hell, could it really be worse than using Mason at the point?), but I get the feeling he'll be starting the season back in Austin.
The Toros may also be useful for developing Jack McClinton and/or James Gist.(who can probably get much more money in Europe, so by no means is this assured. More speculation on him further down) which is where that final roster psot comes in handy.
Our 10-man rotation alone is insanely talented.
Bonner may be in Mahinmi's place on this list, but it seems more likely that the Spurs want to give Ian some more burn this year. I'm not sure they plan on keeping both Mahinmi and [the rights to] Splitter, since the frontcourt is getting awfully crowded.
Speaking of the frontcourt being crowded, what the hell happens to Gist at this point? Where could he possibly fit? It seems as if he has almost zero chance to be on the team - not just this season, but for several seasons to come. Unless he shows enough speed/skill to play SF, Gist just doesn't seem to have a roster spot in his future(and even if he does switch to SF, it's highly questionable).
Are the Spurs done yet?
There's still a part of me that believes another trade is coming - one that solves the problem of having too many talented players/prospects, and not enough roster spots. The Spurs FO is pretty crafty, as Tim Varner explains here - it seems that McDyess wasn't given the full MLE, but the Spurs took a bit of it out and gave it to DeJuan Blair. It also seems(from the comments on that story) that Blair may have been given a four year contract rather than the 3 years that were originally reported.
Peter Holt is "ready to kick some ass", and can't be blamed for his enthusiasm. But it sounds as if the Spurs may not be finished with this most interesting of all offseasons. Full speed ahead, folks - this has only just begun to get interesting.
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Marcus Williams
played really, really well for the Toros last year. His game really improved as the year went on, and he went from handling the ball on 25-30 percent of Austin’s possessions to being their primary point guard at the end of the season (though he did it from the forward position). He’s also a good scorer, though his shooting form is a little off. He occasionally settles for jumpers even though he’s matched up against a mediocre defender, but he’s developed a good sense of when to push the break and when to wait for his teammates, and he was the team’s leader without being overbearing about it.
Ridiculous Upside, where the D-League is better than your favorite team, as objectively determined by Summer League.
R.C. Buford raved about Marcus Williams in his interview during the first summer league game. I’m pretty sure he’s going to make the roster.
haha, it wasn’t even a choice, I love it.
"He's Manu Ginobili"
by the little o on Jul 17, 2009 12:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Heh. Yeah, the LOLGist cracked me up, rik.
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
You should’ve used the Marvin hat pic, though. :)
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
Of the 14 guys that you put to make the team (and I think we can all agree with all those guys being there by now), only 7 were there in last year’s opening roster. That’s 7 new players. Do you think that maybe the spurs have gotten to young too quickly? What about the last spot, should we keep it open or sign Bowen if we get a chance? If we sign Bowen, and want to keep a spot open, who should leave? I feel like it should be either Bonner (I like the red rocket though) or Haislip (we just signed him though). I think Haislip was signed as a sort of defensive specialist (I know I’m using the word loosely) in order to be able to put him against the tough 4 match ups. Haislip can also shoot the 3 but can’t rebound. . Bonner on the other hand, can’t defend, but he can shoot the 3 better and rebound. It’d be tough, but I would let Bonner go in order to sign Bowen if we get a chance. It would probably be Williams though.
"He's Manu Ginobili"
No, the Spurs did not get young to quickly. They have core guys that are veterans and will be playing the big minutes. The young/unproven guys are there to give the big core guys rest. Also, two of the 7 you mention are RJ and Dice, both of whom are vet’s and not young. I think the mixture of guys brought in are great. You’ve got a couple more vet’s and lots of young hungry players that need to prove themselves.
Also, of the 14 listed, 10 of them have Spurs/Toros experience…so that might mitigate the “newness” somewhat…
I’m not a big fan of Matt Bonner’s play on the court but he strikes me as a very hard worker in practice and elsewhere off the court. This could be very valuable for the development of Blair and Mahinmi because we know Pop won’t hesitate to give a vet playing time over youger guys. Blair and Mahinmi will really be forced to prove themselves every day if Bonner is practicing with them.
Our last roster spot should be filled by Ime Udoka. Even though I hope we won’t need to play small ball he gives us the versitility to do so with him at the 4. Also with Bruce gone he would be the only wing capable of being physical with stronger SF’s and SG’s. His skill doesn’t merit a lot of playing time but if we were in a tight game against the Lakers and Artest was having a stellar game Udoka would be perfect to cool him off.
Just call me The Profit
Ugh Ime……..UGh UGH UGH.
I dont agree that we should bring him back. Far too offensively challenged….
I think we should take our chanced with Hairston geting the bulk of his minutes. And haislip getting the rest…all things consider, we took a step back in defense when we cut Bowen..
Perhaps we should parlay Bonner and findog into a small forward stopper….
Raja Bell. I’ve been lobbying for this, and think it works great.
I used to be a c+x kind of guy, but nowadays I just go nuts with my z. - LatinD
Retire Bowen's #12!
Bonner + Fin = $5.75 mil
Bell = $5.25 mil
Mason + Haislip is also close enough to work(~$5.1 mil – it might take Mason to get agreement from the ’Cats)
I used to be a c+x kind of guy, but nowadays I just go nuts with my z. - LatinD
Retire Bowen's #12!
forgot to site source
I used to be a c+x kind of guy, but nowadays I just go nuts with my z. - LatinD
Retire Bowen's #12!
trade and SF position
i really do see the spurs making another trade this season…like bonner for a futre late round pick or maybe evan mason for cash or something like that i dunno but it will be intrseting to see what we pull off…and heres a crazy thought what if we slide haislip to backup SF he defends well he can shoot the 3 really all it sounds like is a bigger bowen who knows he might play well and wed have a really tall frontcourt…what do yall think
haislip
he looks pretty good i mean yea i know thats europe but he really does look like he can play the sf position
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyiK5nf95Cs
WHY IS THE SKY BLUE.....BECAUSE GOD LOVES THE INFANTRY
if he’s like Lamar Odom, then he’s a combo forward…primarily a power forward. I haven’t seen any evidence that he has played or is capable of playing SF, but he seems to have the requisite athleticism.
Guess we’ll see…
He supposedly has a great face up game, good quickness, solid handles, and 3 point range. He sounds like a combo forward to me, but we will have to see as you say.
DraftExpress rated him as the third best overseas free agent, BTW (above a lot of guys whose names you likely know).
"The evolution has been good, and I am much more tranquil now in the face of what comes next,"--Manu Ginobili
Splitter/Ian
I dont see that theyre mutually exclusive, especially given Duncan’s age and increasing injury woes, small and nagging as they may be, the fact that Blair is no safe bet for a long career and McDyess is also ancient by NBA standards, so the need for two young athletic big men is still there, and will only increase in the near future. And who knows what can be reasonably expected from Haislip.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Bonner is off the books next year and Splitter will replace his spot.
Hairston is a SF and I’ve read Finley is likely to see time at SG.
Williams should be listed at SF eventhough he can run the offense from that position. I’m thinking Williams brings the ball up with Timmy in his spot. Mason and Hill , two natural SG’s, in the back court and any other big in the front court depending on the situation/match-ups. That is a good line up if Tony and Manu need rest at the same time.
Part of me would like to see Ian start some games with Tim at PF depending on the 4 TD/Ian would have to guard. Dice, Manu and Hill come in for Parker, Mason, and Mahinmi, and we have a team that will eat up another teams subs.
Did we really just add a player good enough to be guarded by Bruce Bowen?
Hairston is a SF and I’ve read Finley is likely to see time at SG.
At the beginning of the season, I see Hariston rounding out the end of the bench at both the 2 and 3. That is, unless Williams is impressive enough to the coaches that they move Finley over to a Steve Smith/Kerr role as the final SG in the rotation(hopefulyl he’ll be in that role by the end of the season regardless). I only put Williams as PG because the Spurs seem to view him as a distributor.
I also agree with you about starting Ian, at least until Dice gets more comfortable in the system, if not longer. But, I don’t think Pop sees it that way.
I used to be a c+x kind of guy, but nowadays I just go nuts with my z. - LatinD
Retire Bowen's #12!
nice post up up top top rikiddo!
also, regarding hairston or anyone off the bench, being versatile and able to defend multiple positions is what will get them minutes. Pop will put in whoever he thinks will matchups better defensively. At this point we have enough scoring on both units, its the defensive matchups that will be key.
McDyess can bring [toughness] back. Not sexy back unfortunately, though we already have Manu for that.~silverandblack_davis
by FreshmakerDTM on Jul 17, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions
One of the greatest things about our team’s rotation is Manu and not just because he dominates 2nd units like no other. It lets every other player on our team know “you are not too good to come off the bench and Pop will play the rotation that will put us in the position he thinks we need to be in to achieve the goals he has set for us independent of minutes per game and skill level.”*
*Pop isn’t perfect though, but he learned and regretted not playing Hill more against Dallas. Bonner got the start because Pop is consistent and he knew we couldn’t beat Dallas. I think he was challenging Bonner and he failed. He’s gone after next season and Splitter will replace him.
Did we really just add a player good enough to be guarded by Bruce Bowen?
Ian won't start
Yes he has shown some promise in the last couple games, but having Ian start over a solid, proven veteran (even one that isn’t familiar with the system) doesn’t make sense.
Don’t get me wrong…based on certain matchups I think Ian could possibly get a ton of minutes at F/C, but I dont’ see him starting.
Another hypothetical….
If Duncan is benched for a game to limit his minutes, do you start Ian, Blair, or Bonner with Dice?
Did we really just add a player good enough to be guarded by Bruce Bowen?
Ian – there needs to be some size in there.
I used to be a c+x kind of guy, but nowadays I just go nuts with my z. - LatinD
Retire Bowen's #12!
word.
McDyess can bring [toughness] back. Not sexy back unfortunately, though we already have Manu for that.~silverandblack_davis
by FreshmakerDTM on Jul 17, 2009 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Spot on assessment
If there are no further trades, I think you have it absolutely right.
You could slot Williams at PG or SF, because he’ll fill both roles at one time…but either way I think they’ll leave a spot open to stay flexible in case of injury (knock on wood). As for Gist and McClinton, I think they should be handled as seperate cases…
Gist – Waive his rights and invite him to join the Toros. The year in Europe was good for his skill development, but he looks lost trying to figure out his role with the SL team. If he comes over to Austin, he can begin to learn the Spurs’ system and just how he fits within it. Yes, there is a risk that he plays very well and is snatched up by another team, but for his long-term development I think it’s worth the risk.
McClinton – We know the guy can shoot. All McClinton needs is to get his confidence back….and he can do that against slower, less athletic competition in Europe. If he agrees to go, I think he could do well in Europe and come back across the pond in a year to have a second go at it.
Again, I think your roster assessment is absolutely right…down to the part about Finley starting out ahead of Hairston on the depth chart at the beginning of the season with it possible flip-flopping by the end.
Good post!
Blair over Mcdyess to start?
Do you think it’s possible that Blair might start over Mcdyess since Mcdyess’s minutes will need to be managed? That also provides a little more veteran presence for the second unit, especially if Hairston moves ahead of Finley in the rotation.
This is what I want to happen. I hope FInley gets moved to the end of the bench, but then we’re playing 4 rooks and sophs with Manu. However, if we start Ian or Griz, we can have Dice share minutes with Manu and get some more experience with that second unit. Plus, we can still finish halves and games with a lineup of Duncan, Dice, Jefferson, Manu and Parker.
Not right now. Blair is a energy guy and he is undersized , he’s going to be much effective playing against 2nd unit guys at this point in his career.
also – not that we are doing this, but let’s not get too carried away with what BFO (blair force one) and yawn are doing in vegas. hairston too for that matter. these guys all look really good to us right now…in the summer league….against a lower level of competition.
the transition up to regular season NBA games is a big one in terms of skills and confidence needed to contribute. again, these guys looks good and it is right to be excited about that they can bring. just remember its can right now instead of will.
I am very interested to see what Haislip can bring to this team. He is much maligned for his lack of rebounding ability, but that does not concern me too much. 5.2 rebounds in 28 minutes is definitely not great for a PF, but it is a similar per minute amount to what Kenyon Martin tallies (6.0 rebounds in 32 minutes). I don’t think that he is like Bruce Bowen (somone who seems to have an allergy for rebounds), but just that he is not a rebounding specialist.
On offense it will be very interesting to play him at either forward spot, where he is likely to find a mismatch at both positions. When he is at the 4, he will often be quicker than his defender, and he can use his solid jumpshooting and driving ability to score or get to the line. When he is at the 3, he will often be taller than his defender and he can shoot over or overpower his foe inside.
Other than his wild bloks he is not known for his defense, but he has all of the tools to be an outstanding and versatile defender. It will be fasciniating to see if Pop can get him to buy into the Spurs defensive philosophy. If so, he could prove very useful in bothering players like Dirk Nowitzki and Lamar Odom, and maybe using his length to pester some of the 3s in the league.
A late-game lineup of:
Duncan
Haislip
RJ
Manu
Tony
would be able to score at will on practically anyone, and should not be too shabby on D either.
"The evolution has been good, and I am much more tranquil now in the face of what comes next,"--Manu Ginobili
Jefferson would be the tallest small forward the Spurs have had in years. So in that sense, they can get away with starting McDyess and Duncan. They’ll probably list McDyess as the C, just so Timmy has another season a forward.
I can’t see Blair starting. I’m pretty sure by bringing in Dice they promised him a starting job.
I see these 11 guys getting the most time early in the season. (nickname style)
Dice/Red Rocket/
Timmy/Grizzly/Yawn
RJ/Findog
Mace/Sickness
Frenchie/Cubits
And I can’t see Marcus Williams making the team. I don’t think there is room for him and Hairston to share.
Good post, rik, and good comments throughout. It’s great how we end up forming an idea of what the team is, should be and will be by discussing among ourselves. I wish Pop posted here. :)
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
OT: have you heard from Wayne since last night? He seems to be M.I.A.
I used to be a c+x kind of guy, but nowadays I just go nuts with my z. - LatinD
Retire Bowen's #12!
I haven’t – I was about to ask you the same thing. I’ll e-mail him.
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
What happened to Drew Gooden?
I’ve done my best to keep up with the “uncharacteristic” flurry of FO moves by the Spurs this off-season. But…..what happened to Drew Gooden? I’m checking out all of these potential depth charts and I don’t see his name anywhere. Did he sign somewhere else? (I hate missing memo’s)
He hasn’t signed anywhere, but the Spurs don’t have a roster spot(or enough money) to bring him back – there’s 6 bigs under contract, with 2 more(Gist/Splitter) waiting in the wings.
I used to be a c+x kind of guy, but nowadays I just go nuts with my z. - LatinD
Retire Bowen's #12!
I still say there would be room for him. The Spurs FO should be wary of depending on Ian with his injury history and because he is still raw. Also Haislip might see minutes at the 3 allowing more 4 and 5 minutes to go to someone else.
If they can land Gooden for the LLE then they should go for it. He is a dependable rebounder and scorer and not a terrible defender.
"The evolution has been good, and I am much more tranquil now in the face of what comes next,"--Manu Ginobili
Im not enamored with Gooden. We have a lot of bigs nows, and they seem to fit a lot better. Drew isnt the kind of guy who could be happy playing 10 minutes a game. WE dont need him. Besides that nonsense about Haislip playing the 3 isnt gonna happen. He is a 4.
"Rock and Roll angels bring that HardRock Hallelujah"
It isn’t unheard of for players to learn new positions. Lamar Odom was a swingman when he started in the league and became a PF in Miami.
Haislip should be able to do all a SF is needed to do on the Spurs. We have had a starting SF who cannot dribble worth a damn for years upon years.
But, I am not saying that Haislip should primarily be a 3, just that he might take some minutes there. I really like the matchup problems he will pose at the 4 with his quicknesss and driving ability.
"The evolution has been good, and I am much more tranquil now in the face of what comes next,"--Manu Ginobili
I'd look for a wing...
Change Finley and Bonner in to a poor man’s Steve Kerr, have them come in to make a couple of threes, but you could always use another backup to Jefferson. I don’t know if Marcus Williams is the answer, or if there’s someone else to be had.
Poor Man's GM @ poormansgm.blogspot.com
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