Trading Tiago: Manu is the Window

by Manuwar on Jun 22, 2009 9:18 PM CDT Comment 30 comments

Recently over at 48MOH Timmothy Varner touched on what kind of asset Tiago Splitter is to be for our Spurs. We won't be seeing him on the court until 2010-2011 season so many fans are clamoring to cash in on his value now via trade.

The fear in trading Splitter is that the return will be mediocre and when Tiago does arrive in the NBA he'll be comparable to Luis Scola; a big who is exactly what the Spurs are in need of. Splitter does not seem to be a type of guy who will just service as a band aid(YB) for our festering wound that is the Spurs other starting big man. Tiago is most likely the cure to every controllable aspect that went wrong the last 2 seasons. Many of us (me included) felt we would have gotten past the Lakers in '08 if Manu had normal functioning ankles and while there are less who speculated that with a healthy Manu we would have made it to the promise land this year, it is still safe to say we would have had at least a punchers chance to win it all. Add in Splitter to the equation and the '08 chip is ours even with a hobbled Manu and would have been front runners for another title this year.

So why dare trade Splitter? I think the dilemma isn't whether or not Splitter can and will fit in with our Big Three but that by the time he gets here it will be too late. I'm not so concerned with Duncan's body breaking down as much as I am Manu's. Tim's game is so efficient that he will be effective as his athleticism declines. Lets face it he's never been the most athletic guy anyway. Manu on the other hand relies heavily on a sort of game that puts his body through torture. He doesn't take a play off ever and the day he becomes a stand still spot up shooter is the day he is no longer The Sickness. I fully expect Manu to return next season and be close to what we're used to seeing: driving through, around and over defenders, step back jumpers, Pistol Pete-esq passes, and causing havoc on defense. He's been accurately described as a swiss army knife type player; a statistical freak. But After next season though what? We have to face the fact that he's on the decline.

It's time to start thinking of Manu as the window-not Tim. And if we consider things in those terms then trading Splitter seems like the best thing to do. Splitter gives teams instant cap relief as they won't have to pay him a cent till 2010-2011 and in these econnomic times cap relief is an easy sell. Couple that with the fact that Splitter is expected to transition to the NBA with great ease and we have a valuable trading piece on our hands. Trading Tiago for a mid to late first round pick in this years suspect draft is too risky but if we can get a Villanueva type player I say pull the trigger. How say you?

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I’m going to agree with you. If we can get something on the level of Villanueva, I’d go for it – otherwise, I say keep Tiago.

Free James Gist!
Pounding the Rock - where ochlocracy happens. Eat your heart out, California.

by Tim C. on Jun 22, 2009 9:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I’d like to keep Tiago just because I wouldn’t want the team to be Scola’d again.

Regarding this supposedly shallow draft, I think we’d be better off just buying some team’s 1st round pick if we can’t trade up using our 2nd round picks.

The Roleplayer's Realm

by silverandblack_davis on Jun 22, 2009 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ooh I like the phrase “Scola’d” I’m weary of this too but if we get value for him then it will be worth it in immidiate terms. Especially if we were to win a title next year.

...formerly known as speedostuffer

by Manuwar on Jun 22, 2009 10:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe its b/c we've got 4, but Im gonna disagree with you

In some ways winning the title is a crap shoot and a better way to determine success is continual trips to the playoffs. So in the long range, getting Scola’d again (ugh) wouldnt be worth it if the exchange is a huge, precipitous drop off following that title season.

If hes as good as many people around here think, then he could be a core guy along with Parker, Hill and hopefully Mahinimi once Manu and Timmy are really past it

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Jun 22, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you’d rather be the Mavs or Suns (continual playoff trips) than the Miami Heat (one title then a plummet)?

I see what you’re saying bren but we limit the risk of gettin Scola’d if in return for Splitter we get someone who is young.

...formerly known as speedostuffer

by Manuwar on Jun 22, 2009 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well thats the rub then

Getting someone young. The underlying point I was hinting at was that winning titles is as much luck as anything. Would the Lakers be down one title had Fisher not hit that shot against us? Would we have one more if Manu hadnt made that foul? If Amare and company didnt come off the bench, would the Suns have that years title?

Once you get to the playoffs, all bets are off, so I would call the Mavs and Suns successful franchises b/c theyre constantly competitive.

I dont get the indication the Front Office is considering this anyway, nor do I think we could get a young impact player for Splitter.

I would rather be like the Suns or Mavs than the Heat, at least they have a shot and now theyre Front Office will always keep them in the thick of it, rather than feast of famine.

Quite Frankly, Im more upset about the Barbosa trade than the Scola trade

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Jun 22, 2009 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Bren about making the playoffs. Only one team can win the title each year and it comes down to a little luck and match-ups and health [sigh]. For me I just need to be able to turn the TV on every game night and expect us to win. If we’re at that level than we should be in the playoffs every year and have a chance however large or small it may be. With that said, I would obviously trade consistent playoff trips for a title, but there is just no guarantee in that.

by BlaseE on Jun 22, 2009 11:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

In a few years when Manu and Tim are on their last legs we’ll have to rebuild anyway. I’m all for giving us the best shot possible while they’re still elite players. Rebuilding years are inevitable for every franchise.

...formerly known as speedostuffer

by Manuwar on Jun 23, 2009 12:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smart franchises retool in transition. You don’t clear house and rebuild from scratch when everyone on the team is at the age of a mandated annual prostate exam.

"We suck on 'D. Both individually and team-wise, we suck. We're pretty consistent that way. I don't know if I have an answer to that. If I did, we wouldn't suck quite so bad." - Popovich

by Hirschof on Jun 23, 2009 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Splitter/Mahinmi/Hill

And whoever else we get over the next 2-3 year will make that transition easier. Like Ive said before, Im not terribly high on Tiago, but he does have loads of potential, so Id rather that is fulfilled with us, plus Im doubtful about what type of return you could get for him; if its simply a rotation player, Id pass.

If he’s as good as people think, then he’ll eventually “replace” Timmy, whereas we dont have a Manu replacement yet. So one could imagine circa 2012-13 Tony leading the team in every facet, with Ian and Splitter doing there best Twin Towers impression.

So I wouldnt sacrifice the future for a title, in part b/c I think we have a shot at it anyway, we just have to get Manu on two health ankles and augment a few pieces here and there, perhaps its Mike Miller and Sheed/Villanueva or Ben Gordon, who knows. I just think it can be done w/o trading Tiago

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Jun 23, 2009 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

on this whole debate

I say, keep gunning for that championship while Duncan and Ginobili are here, but keep developing that Euro talent. Draft and sign more young euro guys and keep developing them much like we have been doing with Gist, Mahinmi, and Splitter. Then when Duncan and Manu have moved on, those young guns will be able to come here and give us a young dynamic team. Parker would at the point be our veteran leader, Hill should have become the other starting guard, so on and so forth. We could still gun for a championship and still be getting the next generation of Spurs ready. Sure there’ll be plenty of dropoff, but it won’t be as great as it would have been.

To summarize, keeping making these RJ style moves to get us a championship but still draft and go after young talent. Euro or otherwise.

Randy Blythe, Singer of Lamb of God- "Words can be broken, so can bones....." Omerta by Lamb of God

by KA1Z3R on Jun 24, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vilanueva is a RFA so we don’t have to trade for him just outbid the bucks which probably want to move him rather than give him 6-8 million per

I think we need to hold onto Splitter. If we trade him and score in the draft then maybe its worth it, but I’d much rather hold on to him. I think our FO is going to navigate this salary cap and 2010 hype chaos to pull a steal or two for the franchise without sacrificing Splitter like Scola.

by BlaseE on Jun 22, 2009 10:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Keep him

Theres no guarantee he’s ever coming here anyway, given the differences in his salary there and the rookie wages here, so we might as well hang onto him, so if he does come, its for us.

If the aim is to use him to move up in the draft, then the answer is an even more resounding no, this draft isnt terribly spectacular.

Aside from that, beyond any cap relief, Im not sure why anyone else would want him given that he’s no sure bet to come here, and I dont think he’ll have as seamless a transition as you suggest.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Jun 22, 2009 10:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Your points kinda seem to contradict themselves. You say keep him but then go on to say that there is no guarantee he’ll ever play for us. Isn’t that enough reason alone to trade him? Also you don’t seem to think his transition to the NBA will be smooth. Why do you want to keep him then?

...formerly known as speedostuffer

by Manuwar on Jun 22, 2009 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I noticed that, I suppose its b/c he's a wild card

Im not amongst the fans who believe he’s going to be an instant star, its far more likely he’ll simply be a roll player, BUT he is a wildcard, b/c he seems to have the athletic skill to be a difference maker, so in that regard Id say we should keep him b/c of his potential.

But given the economics of the situation, he’s not guaranteed to come over, which in my mind, seems to make him less tradeable. So its a catch-22 of sorts, he has potential, but he has limited value b/c there is no guarantee he’s ever coming over. In which case, Id rather keep so that potential may be filled in San Antonio and hope that he and Mahinmi can bridge the gap to the Post-Duncan world

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Jun 22, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

what’s up with all the villanueva love? He is a streaky perimeter PF who cant defend or rebound well.

"It's a basic truth of the human condition that everybody lies. The only variable is about what."

by Chilai on Jun 22, 2009 10:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think he is The guy we need to target but he’s on my short list of big men to go after. Who do you think we should go after Chilai?

...formerly known as speedostuffer

by Manuwar on Jun 22, 2009 10:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you. There’s little about Villanueva that screams potential Spur. That is, unless Isaiah Thomas has taken over as GM.

by Neuwaldegg on Jun 23, 2009 7:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Randy Blythe, Singer of Lamb of God- "Words can be broken, so can bones....." Omerta by Lamb of God

by KA1Z3R on Jun 24, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Za ZA pachulie

This guy will be a free agent this summer. He wont hurt the spurs bank neither. His career high in rebounds were 7 and points 12 wich would be a big boost for this team.

GO SPURS GO
SPURS 2010 NBA Champions (if team is healty LoL)

by Manu-20 on Jun 23, 2009 12:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's my deal

Splitter is a talent, but much like draftees he is an unknown quantity in the NBA. The idea to keep somebody just because they could be great is a losing mentality. However, to just trade somebody because they may not be great is also bad philosophy.

If you can trade a talented prospect for a talented known NBA quantity then you should probably do it. I think it would be great to get a really good player who we know is good for Splitter. However, to trade him for draft picks or other prospects is not a viable option at this point. Why trade a top prospect for a lesser one?

Unless the Spurs can get top proven talent for Splitter, I say hang on to him and see what happens.

by Big50 on Jun 23, 2009 11:17 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Agreed. Trading for draft picks is a shot in the dark. Trade if we can get some proven talent, otherwise, lets see where he can take the team.

Hi, my name is Ed, and I despise the Lakers.

by Ed (dfjmed) on Jun 23, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im a blazer fan , so im not very close to this situation.

But tiago splitter kinda sounds like a dick. whats his deal?

If i got drafted by the spurs , i would be extatic , cuz most likely there is an NBA title in my immediate future. Why won’t he come over ? i don’t understand.
cuz times kind of an issue, by the time he gets here the team COULD be out of contention.

Officer:Why did you kill your husband ?
Crazy Woman: Because I love too much!

by YikesItsCameron on Jun 23, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Firstly his European team was able to pay him considerably more than S.A. could, b/c of the rookie pay scale and the Euro to USD exchange rate, and secondly (which probably carried more weight than the $$) his sister had health issues and was being cared for very near where he was playing. She’s since passed away, and if he signs next year, after his current contract ends, then he’d be able to make more than rookie dollars.

I want my Manu!

by jollyrogerwilco on Jun 23, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh okay. Thats to bad.

Well i hope you guys get him soon. Just make sure it doesn’t interfere with our championship run :)

Officer:Why did you kill your husband ?
Crazy Woman: Because I love too much!

by YikesItsCameron on Jun 23, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

as long as we can all agree to interfere with the Lakers

I don’t think we’ll have any problems. =)

Randy Blythe, Singer of Lamb of God- "Words can be broken, so can bones....." Omerta by Lamb of God

by KA1Z3R on Jun 24, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen brother.

But i think you guys just may be the favorite of the west now that you have jefferson(and if Manu can stay healthy).

Officer:Why did you kill your husband ?
Crazy Woman: Because I love too much!

by YikesItsCameron on Jun 24, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you said it all right there

if Manu can stay healthy. If not, we might be able to give the Lakers one hell of a conference finals

Randy Blythe, Singer of Lamb of God- "Words can be broken, so can bones....." Omerta by Lamb of God

by KA1Z3R on Jun 24, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep splitter or not. We dont even know if he NBA level yet. I say trade his draft rights for somoene better if we get a chance. Then agian we will look like morins again if it turns out he is scola like.

GO SPURS GO
SPURS 2010 NBA Champions (if team is healty LoL)

by Manu-20 on Jun 24, 2009 11:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs