It's Harvest Season.
Eat your heart out, Luis. It's all about ME! | [via cache.daylife.com]
By now, most of you have hopefully read LatinD's excellent post regarding our Spurs' serious lack of athleticism. If not, go read it now. The entire premise for this article is to suggest how to solve that specific problem.
Even though we don't generally read too much into stats around here, I want to give a bit more evidence to support the basic thrust of his argument. Hopefully, this will shed some light on the suggestions made later in this post.
So, first of all comes our standing in the ultimate hustle stat: offensive rebounding. The Spurs are dead last, and almost 1 full offensive rebound per game behind the second-to-last team. This is simply unacceptable.
The second damning piece of evidence is free throws. Now, we all know that the Duncan-era Spurs have never been a great free-throw shooting team, but when you are getting far less free throw attempts per game than all other teams, you're not getting to the rim, or even into the paint, nearly enough.
But wait, there's another "hustle stat" the Spurs trail the rest of the league in! How about forced turnovers? It's hard to make game changing plays when you refuse to mix it up a bit.
As a matter of using proper PtR form, let's hear the flipside of these statistical arguments. The Spurs also gave up the fewest turnovers, free throw attempts, and offensive rebounds of any team in the league. They also ranked near the bottom in blocks, and shots blocked by opponents(sorry, no link for that one). So all this statistical nonsense is moot, right?
Well... yes, and no.
Although the Spurs are a very careful, disciplined team, they take caution to such an extreme that they are actually hurting themselves. This, however, is more a result of personnel than the Spurs' system itself. I mean, how many blocks, offensive rebounds and steals can you reasonably expect to get out of a starting lineup that features Matt Bonner, Michael Finley, and Roger Mason Jr.?
Don't get me wrong, Pop is partially to blame here for being too stubborn to see the problem until it was already too late. But Pop is a guy who usually learns from his mistakes[after a nice summer of European wine-sampling], and I think next year we're going to see Pop change his regular-season strategy a bit. This will be partly because he knows it will give the Spurs a better shot in the playoffs, and partly out of [salary-cap] necessity.
The Spurs may go out this summer and sign a free agent to help plug one of the holes at forward, whether it be Ariza, Kleiza, Rasheed Wallace, or someone else who is less well-known(my money's on this one). This post isn't about free-agent signings, though. No free agent is going to save this team - it would likely be of some help, but doesn't address the fact that the Spurs' bench is simply too old, slow and unathletic to keep pace with the other teams we are competing with, let alone make up for some of our starters having those same qualities.
And this is where the word "harvest" comes into play.
The Spurs have quite a bit of young talent in the pipeline right now. Tiago Splitter, Malik Hairston, Marcus Williams, and James Gist all come to mind. They also have 3 second-round picks this year. Realistically, we won't see Splitter until the 2010-2011 campaign. However, those other three guys could all be wearing Silver and Black next year - and I hope they all do.
The Spurs are already in a pretty tight salary cap situation, which is only going to be made worse if the cap is indeed lowered, as many analysts think it will be. The situation seems to dictate(very loudly) that the Spurs need to just sign these guys and let them play. Also, developing the Toros roster separately[without Spurs roster players in Austin] means they might be able to find another gem like Pops more easily. There's a reason we have the Toros - it shouldn't be where draft picks go to die. These three guys(Williams, Hairston, and Gist) have already proven themselves, whether on the Toros or in Euroleague play. We've been growing the talent pool for a while, it's time to bring in the harvest.
So, we'd have these under-25's on our bench: George Hill, Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Williams, Malik Hairston, and James Gist. Most of them are disgustingly athletic, and are pests on defense(jury's still out on Ian, but I have hope). Pop needs to give these guys serious playing time to speed their development. But that cleans out all of our best prospects not from Brazil - so, then what?
We use the draft, and summer camp, to gain some new talent.
Which brings me to Tony Parker's role in all of this.
Oddly enough, Tony Parker may be a bigger key to the future long-term success of this team than any of us ever thought. Obviously, his value as a player is higher than any other Spur, mainly due to his age. However, Tony also happens to be the Director of Basketball Operations for ASVEL in France. Why is this such a big deal? It doesn't seem like that big of a deal to anyone but Parker at first glance, until you consider that the Spurs have been actively seeking agreements with Euro teams the past couple of seasons to help develop draft picks - agreements like the one that had James Gist playing for Angelico Biella this past season.
Let me paint the picture more clearly. From now on, when the Spurs invite future draft picks and prospects in for summer camp, not only do Pop and RC get to evaluate talent for short-term needs, but we essentially have the GM of a european team getting a firsthand look at every single one, as well. One suspects that Tony's newfound power in that regard is going to help the Spurs immensely with player development. Let those guys ink one or two-year deals with ASVEL, like was done with Gist, to watch their development. Tony probably wants the best chance for ASVEL to win, and by being the first to observe these guys, he gets a leg up on his French competition, and the Spurs also get better access to scout them. Its a win-win.
So after a given draft(like the one coming, in which the Spurs have those three second-round picks), the Spurs could invite all their picks, and a handful of Euro free agents to training camp for tryouts. The Spurs could then assign any new talent they believe could be useful in the short-term to the Toros, and give any longer-term projects over to Tony, with the understanding that the Spurs would make a decision whether to sign them after a year or two with ASVEL.
The boss man himself | [via www.basketnews.net]
Now if only Tony could buy out Matt Bonner and send him to France. Then we'd really have to love the little Frenchman.
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36 comments
Comments
Suddenly the 2009 season doesnt look that shitty, thanks a lot
"It's a basic truth of the human condition that everybody lies. The only variable is about what."
by Chilai on May 18, 2009 8:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow! Deep thoughts and great analysis, rikiddo! I’ve thought of the Toros as our minor league team, but never applied this to Tony’s team. BRILLIANT! Anyone know what Pops’ contract status is with the Raptors?
by CapHill on May 18, 2009 8:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pops probably wants more money than we can afford to throw at him, but it’s a nice thought.
Free James Gist!
by Tim C. on May 18, 2009 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I echo Cap — very well done, rikiddo. I’m really hoping some of our young athletic pups develop the kind of defensive skills that will capture Pop’s heart. Bowen should work with them over the summer.
by Lauri on May 18, 2009 9:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff rikiddo.
The offensive rebounding stat Pop has been ignoring for a while now, partly becoz of personnel and mainly coz of our sucky transition defense where he starts yelling if anybody is trailing their guy.
But the rest of the stats…/sigh. We are bad.
I hope we find a few energizer bunnies.
by LionZion on May 18, 2009 9:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I gotta take the counter argument on this, sorry, it was very well written though
The Spurs have quite a bit of young talent in the pipeline right now. Tiago Splitter, Malik Hairston, Marcus Williams, and James Gist all come to mind.
I would call that quite a bit of unproven, and most likely, mediocre talent. Gist doesnt seem like he’ll ever have the repetoire to contribute offensively, and no one knows what to expect from Splitter; yes he’s highly regarded, but he’s also a huge wild card. As for Hairston and Williams, well what can you reasonably expect out of them? Hairston is of the same build as Mason and Williams just seems like James White repackaged. Athleticism alone doesnt make a useful basketball player.
Even if Parkers team provides the organization with another outlet to stockpile foreign talent, it does little to help a team with a 2-3 year window, at most.
I just think the Spurs, and Spurs fans, have become to enamored with European players; sure we struck gold twice, but we cant reasonably expect that to happen again
I dont know how to explain the lack of offensive rebounding stats, however, though Im sure its b/c of the cement Nikes Oberto and his ilk choose to wear
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on May 18, 2009 10:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why do you think Splitter is a wild card, beyond his contractual situation? He’s proven himself time and again in the European league. Just as Manu did, in his time.
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
by LatinD on May 18, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and i would like to think that bigs can adapt better to the NBA than guards (scola comes to may mind, he can barely dunk or block a shot and he dominates other bigs)
"It's a basic truth of the human condition that everybody lies. The only variable is about what."
by Chilai on May 18, 2009 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why do you assume that his Euro play will translate?
Its not an open and shut case either way; he doesnt appear to be a physical marvel like Dirk, nor does he appear to have Manus killer instinct. He very well might be the Brazilian Drew Gooden
Point being, we have at most 3 years to win it all and after that there will be a downfall b/c we dont have any other Franchise guys on this team….so stash all the Euros you want, its not doing us any good in the here and now, which is all that matters when your core is aging.
And once Timmy and Manu are past their Used By Date, we’re left with Tony, and teams that rely on their PG for the majority of their scoring dont go far; see Iverson, Allen or Marbuy, Stephon
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on May 19, 2009 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he’s got solid post-up skills, much like Scola, and is definitely more athletic than Luis. Why wouldn’t they translate? He’ll have to adjust, of course, but he’s not a rookie.
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
by LatinD on May 19, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re assuming that we don’t acquire some big name in the 2010 FA sweep stakes.
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed.
by CMoney on May 19, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Id love that, but thats no guarantee
not when the Knicks reportedly have enough $$$ to go for LeBron and Bosh
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on May 19, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the few things Oberto still can do is getting offensive rebounds. In fact that’s his main asset right now. Maybe he doesnt put it back with a thunderous jam, but he keeps the ball alive with tip outs to the perimeter
"It's a basic truth of the human condition that everybody lies. The only variable is about what."
by Chilai on May 18, 2009 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand your point. I agree with it, we have a lot of unknowns we’re getting excited about. However, if these guys don’t play, we’ll never know if they’re good enough to be on the team. So I say let them play, if they pan out, great, if not, move on.
by Big50 on May 19, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post, rik.
As you said, though, some of those statistical parameters could easily be explained by the Spurs’ game plan. Not everything, but a big part. We never gamble for offensive rebounds and run back to the defensive end immediately. I get that. I imagine we’re among the best teams in avoiding fast-break points.
I don’t find the turnover stats all that meaningful. Game-changing plays are a bit overrated – good teams hardly ever need them. I think we often overestimate clutchness and underestimate the ability to put games away early. (I think that’s where Hollinger’s obsession with point differential comes from.) We were excellent in the clutch this year, and yet we all knew that wasn’t winning basketball.
Free throw attempts now, that’s telling. In fact, I think it goes hand in hand with the dunk stats – they both mark the unwillingness of our players to finish strong near the basket, which is where most of the foul calls are made. So yes, yes, yes, rik – our bench should be full of young guys, especially when they’re readily available. You’re completely right: it’s harvest time.
Now if only the FO agrees…
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
by LatinD on May 18, 2009 10:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm, I was doing some surfing today on the Euroleague site and didn’t pick up on this until I read this post. Asvel won the French league regular season. The team Tony is involved with isn’t just some bottom feeder. They are actually a real club. Good point to bring up. I hadn’t considered the value of that connection.
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on May 19, 2009 12:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
I agree that we have some young talent that needs to play. I hope Pop realizes that or is forced to play some of these guys. Clearly we need to know if these guys can play at the NBA level and if not we need to stop wasting time with them. That being said the only way to find out for sure is to let them play. I hope it works out.
by Big50 on May 19, 2009 10:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Very good post Rik,
Athleticism doesn’t translate into production. PTR’s new found obsession reminds me of the old NFL craze with converting track stars to wide outs. Not very many make it work. I think the optimism on Williams is unwarranted. If he could produce at the NBA level he would have been given a shot by now. If not from us then by someone else. And you can’t convince me that Harriston is any better than Euro-guard Joe Blow. If we were a team that was rebuilding then we could afford to take time in developing some young guys but we’re not that team. Do we need more athleticism? Yes. But we need functional athleticism that can contribute to our team-not hurt us. Where I agree with you is on Tiago and Gist. Tiago, like you said, won’t be around till 2010-11 so we don’t need to discuss him really. In James Gist I can see a Carly Landry type player. Even if we say his offensive skills aren’t much you need look no further than Tyson Chandler to realize that players with little offensive skills can still produce points. Manu is a top 10 passer in the league and with no one to alley-oop too. Put Manu in a pick and roll all day with Gist and the outcome will be similar to what Chris Paul and Tyson achieved a season ago. From what I’ve read of Gist and saw in his summer league games last year he won’t be a defensive liability. He’s long enough to guard 4’s especially those who like to put it on the floor ala Dirk. And he’s quick enough to stay with a three if needed. I don’t think he will be exposed on the defensive end and so the only question is about his offensive production and I already addressed that. Gimme some Gist.
...formerly known as speedostuffer
by Manuwar on May 19, 2009 12:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Joe Blow, that guy’s got skill. Can we get his rights? I wouldn’t mind seeing him out in the floor with Manu and Tony. Together they could be unstoppable.
by Big50 on May 19, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I researched Blow, and he’s signed to his Euro team just like Splitter. Won’t be available until 2012. It’s too bad to because here are some of his greatest plays.
You’re better off trying to intimidate the sea. - LatinD
Free George Hill! (member #4)
by jollyrogerwilco on May 19, 2009 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Impressive, but have you seen this French player, Guy Incognito? Maybe Tony could recruit him, like we were saying. Check out his highlight reel and tell me we shouldn’t be chasing him.
by Lauri on May 19, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should probably go ahead and link to his stats before someone else does.
by Lauri on May 19, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those stats are eye-popping.
You’re better off trying to intimidate the sea. - LatinD
Free George Hill! (member #4)
by jollyrogerwilco on May 19, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that graph doesn’t even add up to 100%. inconclusive!
...formerly known as speedostuffer
by Manuwar on May 19, 2009 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha! Awesome but there is no way that voice is coming from him.
...formerly known as speedostuffer
by Manuwar on May 19, 2009 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re absolutely right — my money is on the bartender dancing with the washcloth.
You’re better off trying to intimidate the sea. - LatinD
Free George Hill! (member #4)
by jollyrogerwilco on May 19, 2009 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
damn, I really need to read replies before I start clicking on links.
Free James Gist!
by Tim C. on May 19, 2009 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With a name like Joe Blow … he has to be good.
You’re better off trying to intimidate the sea. - LatinD
Free George Hill! (member #4)
by jollyrogerwilco on May 19, 2009 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sold.
...formerly known as speedostuffer
by Manuwar on May 20, 2009 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You oughta be. You’re the one who turned us all on to him! : P
You’re better off trying to intimidate the sea. - LatinD
Free George Hill! (member #4)
by jollyrogerwilco on May 20, 2009 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another point to playing young talent is to develop worth. This is a poor example because he was our top pick but we draft George Hill and play him and he looks good. Now teams are saying they won’t trade with us unless they get him or Mason. I don’t want us to trade HIll but we have added a commodity we didn’t have previously. These young guys can be signed for cheap and then be developed as trade assets. If we had just signed Pops like everyone on this site said, he would have been a trade asset after the season even if Pop doesn’t like him as a Spur. That is as long as we don’t Scola another player away…..
by BlaseE on May 21, 2009 2:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Right, but signing Pops would of meant we would have had to cut Jacque Vaughn. Do you see now why this would have been a terrible move and doesn’t makes sense?
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed.
by CMoney on May 21, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you need a defacto “how the hell i am here” player to win a championship (see Scalabrine, Brian)
"It's a basic truth of the human condition that everybody lies. The only variable is about what."
by Chilai on May 21, 2009 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are the odds?
I can’t believe this entire exchange happened without anyone mentioning the word “savvy”.
You’re better off trying to intimidate the sea. - LatinD
Free George Hill! (member #4)
by jollyrogerwilco on May 23, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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